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題名 西非國家經濟共同體使用單一貨幣之前景-從歐元區之經驗分析
The Prospect of a Common Currency for the Economic Community of West African States: Lessons from the Eurozone Experience
作者 貝詩瑪
Belem, Asma Amina
貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
貝詩瑪
Asma Amina Belem
關鍵詞 Common currency
ECOWAS
Eurozone
Debt crisis
Financial integration
Macroeconomic imbalance
日期 2017
上傳時間 13-Sep-2017 16:10:59 (UTC+8)
摘要 This study aimed at contributing to the debate of monetary integration in West Africa by using the Eurozone experience as a benchmark to study the ECOWAS prospective single currency project. We found that while the precursors of monetary union theory focused on labor mobility, financial integration, openness, etc. as the preconditions to establish a common currency, payment imbalance, unsustainable external and public debt, private sector credit boom were the main causes of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Furthermore, the Eurozone experience shows that the monetary union increases countries’ vulnerability to international movements. Lastly, the Eurozone mechanism of resolution of the debt crisis shows that a monetary union must always be accompanied by some degree of fiscal and banking union or at least a strict coordination of macroeconomic policies. The ECOWAS countries have for the great majority structural current account deficit, high external debt and rely on commodities export. This situation point out a problem of competitiveness, a reliance on external capital and a vulnerability to changes on commodities prices. We argue that it is imperative for the ECOWAS to solve these competitivity issues throughout a diversification of the economy, a promotion of small and medium enterprise and implementation of import substitution policies. Additionally, the ECOWAS should include in the convergence criteria a benchmarked external debt, current account deficit and an indicator that captures the vulnerability to financial integration. Finally yet importantly, the ECOWAS should accelerate the creation of the common currency otherwise, the various postponements of the launch of the regional currency might discourage the local participants and pose doubt about the credibility of the ECOWAS.
參考文獻 Agyapong, D. (2012). The Eurozone Currency Crisis: A Lesson for West Africa Monetary Zone. Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences, Vol. 1 No. 11, 11-25.
Angerer, J. (2015). Stability and Growth Pact – An Overview of the Rules. European Parliament, PE 528.745, 1-10.
Arnone, M., Laurens, J. B., Segalotto, J.-F., & Sommer, M. (2009). Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 56, No. 2, 263-296.
Baerg, N. R., & Hallerberg, M. (2016). Stability and Growth Pact: Contribution of Member States Power and Euroskepticism to the Euro Crisis. Sage, Vol. 49(7), 968–1009.
Bakoup, F., & Ndoye, D. (2016). Why and when to introduce a single currency in ECOWAS. Africa Economic Brief, Volume 7 Issue 1, 1-16.
Bamituni, A. (2013, 04 20). ECOWAS and a common currency: Lessons from the Eurozone. Retrieved from Bamituni Abamu`s blog: https://bamituniabamu.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/ecowas-and-a-common-currency-lessons-from-the-eurozone/
Barrios, S., Iversen, P., Lewandowska, M., & Setze, R. (2009). Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial cris. European Economy, Economic Papers 38, 1-28.
BBC. (2016, June 16). Nigeria allows the Naira to float against the US dollar. Retrieved from BBC News Business: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36538379.
Bénassy-Quéré, A. (2015). Maastricht flaws and remedies. In R. Baldwin, & F. Giavazzi, The Eurozone Crisis A Consensus View of the Causes and a Few Possible Remedies (pp. 72-84). London: CEPR Press.
Buti, M., Eijffinger, S., & Franco, D. (2003). Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: grand design or internal adjustment? European Economy, N° 180, 1-39.
Corsetti, G. (2015). Roots of the EZ crisis: Incomplete development and imperfect credibility of institutions. VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-7.
De Grauwe, P. (2011). The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone. CEPS Working Document, No. 346, 1-22.
De Grauwe, P. (2013). Design Failures in the Eurozone: Can they be fixed? LSE Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series, LEQS Paper No. 57, 1-32.
Dinan, D. (2004). Europe Recast: History of European Union. Palgrave MacMillan.
ECOWAS. (2016). ECOWAS`s 2015 Convergence report [Rapport de convergence 2015 de la CEDEAO].
ECOWAS. (2017 , April 26). About the ECOWAS: History. Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.ecowas.int/about-ecowas/history/
ECOWAS. (2017, April 26). About ECOWAS: History. Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.ecowas.int/about-ecowas/history/
ECOWAS. (2017, 02 24). About the ECOWAS. Retrieved from Basic information: www.ecowas.int
ECOWAS. (2017, June). West African Monetary Agency . Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.ecowas.int/specialized-agencies/west-african-monetary-agency-wama/
Edwards, S. (2003). 30 Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper .
Eichengreen, B., & Hausmann, R. (2003). Other People`s Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies. Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press.
EU. (2017, 02 24). About EU. Retrieved from EU Monetary Cooperation: europa.eu/european-union/index en
Frankel, J. (2015). Causes of Eurozone crises. VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-6.
Gnimassoun, I. C. (2013). Optimality of a monatry union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa. Elsevier, Economic Modelling 32, 463-482.
Gros, D. (2011). Sovereign Debt vs Foreign Debt in the Eurozone. CEPS Commentary, 1-2.
Gros, D. (2015). The Eurozone crisis as a sudden stop: It is the foreign debt which matters. VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-5.
IMF. (2011). Niger 2011 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION. International Monetary Fund. Washington, D.C: IMF Country Report.
IMF. (2015). Guinea 2015 Article IV Consultation. Washington, D.C.: IMF Country Report.
IMF. (2015). The Gambia 2015 Article IV Consultation. Washington, D.C.: IMF Country Report.
Ingram, J. C. (1973). The Case for European Monetary Integration. Essays in International Finance, No. 98, 1-33.
IZF. (2017, June). History of West African Economic Integration [Historique de l`intégration économique en Afrique de l`Ouest]. Retrieved from Invest In Zone Franc [Investir en Zone Franc]: http://www.izf.net/pages/historique-lint-gration-conomique-en-afrique-louest
Karagounis, K., Syrrakos, D., & Simister, S. (2015). The Stability and Growth Pact, and Balanced Budget Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Germany and Italy. Intereconomics, 32-39.
Kenen, P. B. (1969). The theory of Optimal Currency Areas: an eclectic view. In R. A. Mundell, & A. K. Swoboda, Monetary Problems of the International Economy (pp. 41-107). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
Kesner-Škreb, M. (2008). Stability and Growth Pact. Financial Theory and Practice, UDC 327.56(4-12), 83-85.
Martin, P., & Philippon, T. (2014). What caused the great recession in the Eurozone? What could have avoided it? VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-6.
Masson, P., & Pattillo, C. (2003). Monetary Union In Africa: An Agency of Restrain for Fiscal Policy. Journal of African Economies, 387-712.
Maury, F., & Osei, O. A. (2014, Frebruary 28). Why Ghana’s Currency is collapsing? Retrieved from The Africa Report.: http://www.theafricareport.com/West-Africa/why-is-ghanas-currency-collapsing.html
McKinnon, R. I. (1963). Optimum Currency Areas. The American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 4, 717-725.
Mongelli, F. P. (2008). European Economic and Monetary Integration, and. European Economy, Economic Papers 302, 1-57.
Mougani, G. (2014). Challenges towards Regional Financial Integration and Monetary Coordination in West Africa Monetary Zone and East Economic Community. Regional Integration Policy Paper, 1-82.
Mundell, R. A. (1961). The Theory of Optimal Currency Areas. The American Economic Review, Volume 51, Issue 4, 657-665.
Ndiaye, M. B., & Korsu, R. D. (2014). The Quest for a Monetary Union in ECOWAS: An Econometric Test for Convergence of Countries. In D. Seck, Private Sector Developemnt in West Africa (pp. 31-59). Switzerland: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-05188-8
O’Rourke, H. K., & Taylor, A. M. (2013). Cross of Euros. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 27, Number 3—Summer 2013, 167–192.
Ojo, M. (2003). Regional currency areas and use of foreign currencies: the experience of West Africa. BIS Papers, No 17, 104-144.
Ross, M. L. (2003). Nigeria’s Oil Sector and the Poor. UCLA Department of Political Science, 1-27.
Seck, D. (2014). Proposed Architecture for an ECOWAS Common Currency Union. In Private Sector Development in West Africa (pp. 3-30). Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-05188-8
Svrtinov, V. G., Trajkovska, O. G., & Temjanovski, R. (2015). Sudden stops and current account reversals: the euro area experience. SEEU Review, 11, 25-34.
Trade, E. A. (2017, April). ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme. Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.aidfortrade.ecowas.int/programmes/ecowas-trade-liberalization-scheme-etls
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
104266012
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tsoyu Calvinen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 貝詩瑪zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Asma Amina Belemen_US
dc.creator (作者) 貝詩瑪zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Belem, Asma Aminaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2017en_US
dc.date.accessioned 13-Sep-2017 16:10:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 13-Sep-2017 16:10:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 13-Sep-2017 16:10:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104266012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/112848-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 104266012zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study aimed at contributing to the debate of monetary integration in West Africa by using the Eurozone experience as a benchmark to study the ECOWAS prospective single currency project. We found that while the precursors of monetary union theory focused on labor mobility, financial integration, openness, etc. as the preconditions to establish a common currency, payment imbalance, unsustainable external and public debt, private sector credit boom were the main causes of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Furthermore, the Eurozone experience shows that the monetary union increases countries’ vulnerability to international movements. Lastly, the Eurozone mechanism of resolution of the debt crisis shows that a monetary union must always be accompanied by some degree of fiscal and banking union or at least a strict coordination of macroeconomic policies. The ECOWAS countries have for the great majority structural current account deficit, high external debt and rely on commodities export. This situation point out a problem of competitiveness, a reliance on external capital and a vulnerability to changes on commodities prices. We argue that it is imperative for the ECOWAS to solve these competitivity issues throughout a diversification of the economy, a promotion of small and medium enterprise and implementation of import substitution policies. Additionally, the ECOWAS should include in the convergence criteria a benchmarked external debt, current account deficit and an indicator that captures the vulnerability to financial integration. Finally yet importantly, the ECOWAS should accelerate the creation of the common currency otherwise, the various postponements of the launch of the regional currency might discourage the local participants and pose doubt about the credibility of the ECOWAS.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgements 2
Abstract 3
List of figures 5
List of tables 7
Chapter 1: Introduction 8
I. Research motives 8
I. Introduction 9
II. Research question 10
Chapter 2: Literature review and methodology 13
I. Literature review 13
1. Theoretical literature review 13
2. Empirical literature review 18
II. Methodology 22
Chapter 3: A Study of the Eurozone 25
Part I: A Background Study of the Eurozone 25
I. Historical background 25
II. The stabilizer mechanisms of a country not member of a monetary union 27
III. Eurozone and the Optimum Current Areas theory 28
IV. The Eurozone keys monetary treaty and their limitations 31
V. Overview of the sovereign debt crisis 35
VI. Proposed solutions by the Eurozone to deal with the crisis 39
Part 2: The episode of the debt crisis: an Empirical study 41
I. Story in pictures: the expectation that monetary unions are balance of payment crisis free has not been meet 41
II. Variable setting 47
III. Specification of the model 49
IV. Results 50
Summary 54
Chapter 4: The Economic Community of West African States 56
I. Historical and institutional background 56
1. Historical background 56
2. Institutional background 57
II. Macroeconomics imbalance, regional disparity 60
1- Analysis of ECOWAS’s member countries inflation 60
1- Analysis of ECOWAS member states’ current account 62
2- Analysis of ECOWAS countries’ External debt to Export ratio 65
III. Convergence in ECOWAS 68
III. Others potential challenges of the common currency project 75
Summary 76
Chapter 5: Conclusion and Policy implications 78
I. The Eurozone experience versus the ECOWAS situation: a comparative analysis 78
II. Policy implications 82
III. Conclusion 85
IV. Limitations 86
References 87		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 844691 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266012en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Common currencyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) ECOWASen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Eurozoneen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Debt crisisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financial integrationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Macroeconomic imbalanceen_US
dc.title (題名) 西非國家經濟共同體使用單一貨幣之前景-從歐元區之經驗分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Prospect of a Common Currency for the Economic Community of West African States: Lessons from the Eurozone Experienceen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Agyapong, D. (2012). The Eurozone Currency Crisis: A Lesson for West Africa Monetary Zone. Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences, Vol. 1 No. 11, 11-25.
Angerer, J. (2015). Stability and Growth Pact – An Overview of the Rules. European Parliament, PE 528.745, 1-10.
Arnone, M., Laurens, J. B., Segalotto, J.-F., & Sommer, M. (2009). Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 56, No. 2, 263-296.
Baerg, N. R., & Hallerberg, M. (2016). Stability and Growth Pact: Contribution of Member States Power and Euroskepticism to the Euro Crisis. Sage, Vol. 49(7), 968–1009.
Bakoup, F., & Ndoye, D. (2016). Why and when to introduce a single currency in ECOWAS. Africa Economic Brief, Volume 7 Issue 1, 1-16.
Bamituni, A. (2013, 04 20). ECOWAS and a common currency: Lessons from the Eurozone. Retrieved from Bamituni Abamu`s blog: https://bamituniabamu.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/ecowas-and-a-common-currency-lessons-from-the-eurozone/
Barrios, S., Iversen, P., Lewandowska, M., & Setze, R. (2009). Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial cris. European Economy, Economic Papers 38, 1-28.
BBC. (2016, June 16). Nigeria allows the Naira to float against the US dollar. Retrieved from BBC News Business: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36538379.
Bénassy-Quéré, A. (2015). Maastricht flaws and remedies. In R. Baldwin, & F. Giavazzi, The Eurozone Crisis A Consensus View of the Causes and a Few Possible Remedies (pp. 72-84). London: CEPR Press.
Buti, M., Eijffinger, S., & Franco, D. (2003). Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: grand design or internal adjustment? European Economy, N° 180, 1-39.
Corsetti, G. (2015). Roots of the EZ crisis: Incomplete development and imperfect credibility of institutions. VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-7.
De Grauwe, P. (2011). The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone. CEPS Working Document, No. 346, 1-22.
De Grauwe, P. (2013). Design Failures in the Eurozone: Can they be fixed? LSE Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series, LEQS Paper No. 57, 1-32.
Dinan, D. (2004). Europe Recast: History of European Union. Palgrave MacMillan.
ECOWAS. (2016). ECOWAS`s 2015 Convergence report [Rapport de convergence 2015 de la CEDEAO].
ECOWAS. (2017 , April 26). About the ECOWAS: History. Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.ecowas.int/about-ecowas/history/
ECOWAS. (2017, April 26). About ECOWAS: History. Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.ecowas.int/about-ecowas/history/
ECOWAS. (2017, 02 24). About the ECOWAS. Retrieved from Basic information: www.ecowas.int
ECOWAS. (2017, June). West African Monetary Agency . Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.ecowas.int/specialized-agencies/west-african-monetary-agency-wama/
Edwards, S. (2003). 30 Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper .
Eichengreen, B., & Hausmann, R. (2003). Other People`s Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies. Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press.
EU. (2017, 02 24). About EU. Retrieved from EU Monetary Cooperation: europa.eu/european-union/index en
Frankel, J. (2015). Causes of Eurozone crises. VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-6.
Gnimassoun, I. C. (2013). Optimality of a monatry union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa. Elsevier, Economic Modelling 32, 463-482.
Gros, D. (2011). Sovereign Debt vs Foreign Debt in the Eurozone. CEPS Commentary, 1-2.
Gros, D. (2015). The Eurozone crisis as a sudden stop: It is the foreign debt which matters. VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-5.
IMF. (2011). Niger 2011 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION. International Monetary Fund. Washington, D.C: IMF Country Report.
IMF. (2015). Guinea 2015 Article IV Consultation. Washington, D.C.: IMF Country Report.
IMF. (2015). The Gambia 2015 Article IV Consultation. Washington, D.C.: IMF Country Report.
Ingram, J. C. (1973). The Case for European Monetary Integration. Essays in International Finance, No. 98, 1-33.
IZF. (2017, June). History of West African Economic Integration [Historique de l`intégration économique en Afrique de l`Ouest]. Retrieved from Invest In Zone Franc [Investir en Zone Franc]: http://www.izf.net/pages/historique-lint-gration-conomique-en-afrique-louest
Karagounis, K., Syrrakos, D., & Simister, S. (2015). The Stability and Growth Pact, and Balanced Budget Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Germany and Italy. Intereconomics, 32-39.
Kenen, P. B. (1969). The theory of Optimal Currency Areas: an eclectic view. In R. A. Mundell, & A. K. Swoboda, Monetary Problems of the International Economy (pp. 41-107). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
Kesner-Škreb, M. (2008). Stability and Growth Pact. Financial Theory and Practice, UDC 327.56(4-12), 83-85.
Martin, P., & Philippon, T. (2014). What caused the great recession in the Eurozone? What could have avoided it? VOX CEPR`s Policy Portal, 1-6.
Masson, P., & Pattillo, C. (2003). Monetary Union In Africa: An Agency of Restrain for Fiscal Policy. Journal of African Economies, 387-712.
Maury, F., & Osei, O. A. (2014, Frebruary 28). Why Ghana’s Currency is collapsing? Retrieved from The Africa Report.: http://www.theafricareport.com/West-Africa/why-is-ghanas-currency-collapsing.html
McKinnon, R. I. (1963). Optimum Currency Areas. The American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 4, 717-725.
Mongelli, F. P. (2008). European Economic and Monetary Integration, and. European Economy, Economic Papers 302, 1-57.
Mougani, G. (2014). Challenges towards Regional Financial Integration and Monetary Coordination in West Africa Monetary Zone and East Economic Community. Regional Integration Policy Paper, 1-82.
Mundell, R. A. (1961). The Theory of Optimal Currency Areas. The American Economic Review, Volume 51, Issue 4, 657-665.
Ndiaye, M. B., & Korsu, R. D. (2014). The Quest for a Monetary Union in ECOWAS: An Econometric Test for Convergence of Countries. In D. Seck, Private Sector Developemnt in West Africa (pp. 31-59). Switzerland: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-05188-8
O’Rourke, H. K., & Taylor, A. M. (2013). Cross of Euros. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 27, Number 3—Summer 2013, 167–192.
Ojo, M. (2003). Regional currency areas and use of foreign currencies: the experience of West Africa. BIS Papers, No 17, 104-144.
Ross, M. L. (2003). Nigeria’s Oil Sector and the Poor. UCLA Department of Political Science, 1-27.
Seck, D. (2014). Proposed Architecture for an ECOWAS Common Currency Union. In Private Sector Development in West Africa (pp. 3-30). Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-05188-8
Svrtinov, V. G., Trajkovska, O. G., & Temjanovski, R. (2015). Sudden stops and current account reversals: the euro area experience. SEEU Review, 11, 25-34.
Trade, E. A. (2017, April). ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme. Retrieved from ECOWAS: http://www.aidfortrade.ecowas.int/programmes/ecowas-trade-liberalization-scheme-etls		zh_TW