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題名 資訊扭曲在英國選民脫歐抉擇之角色
The Role of Information Distortion in the Brexit Referendum
作者 林琮紘
Lin, Tsung Hung
貢獻者 盧倩儀
林琮紘
Lin, Tsung Hung
關鍵詞 英國脫歐公投
投票抉擇
議題投票行為
資訊扭曲
個體層次分析
Brexit referendum
Voting choice
Issue voting behavior
Information distortion
Micro-level analysis
日期 2018
上傳時間 2-Mar-2018 11:54:49 (UTC+8)
摘要 2016年的英國脫歐公投,最終以51.89%比48.11%的差距,決定了英國脫歐的命運。各界紛紛揣測各種可能造成民眾投下脫歐一票的原因,包含個人經濟狀況、政黨認同、受民粹操控、反菁英、對歐洲認同等。本文針對既有研究中尚存在之空缺,聚焦「議題投票取向」對選民投票抉擇的影響,探究脫歐陣營對資訊的扭曲是否對選民的投票抉擇有顯著影響。論文就脫歐派針對國民健保、移民、脫歐後的英國對外經貿、失業率、勞工權益保障與是否能無條件持續享有歐盟單一市場好處這六項議題,透過「二分勝算對數模型」進行分析,從個體層次行為來瞭解資訊扭曲對選民在脫歐公投中投票行為的影響。
研究結果顯示,在移民潮來襲、民眾高喊反全球化與選民不安全感高漲的大環境背景下,脫歐陣營對選民所關心之議題的煽動與對資訊的操控使選民在做出投票抉擇時受到明顯誤導。此外,模型結果亦顯示,選民的個人社經背景與心理態度認知同樣對選民投票行為產生影響。總結而言,本研究透過微觀層次的分析,針對促使選民投下脫歐一票的因素做出深入探討,並以「資訊扭曲」作為重要變數,補充議題投票相關研究之不足。
In the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, 51.89 per cent of the voter voted Leave and 48.11 per cent voted Remain. The result sealed the fate of the UK as an outsider of the European Union. While the reasons behind voter’s choice to leave the EU remain disputed, individual voter’s socio-economic status, party identification, populism, anti-elite mood, and identity toward European were among the most frequently listed factors. In order to fill the gap that existing researchs has left, this thesis focuses on the significance of “issue voting” in voting behavior. It discusses if the distortion of information by the Leave campaign had a significant impact on people’s voting choice. It uses the “logistic regression model” to analyse six issues brought about by the Leave campaign. They include the NHS, immigration, trading arrangements with other nations, unemployment, working conditions for British workers, and unconditional maintaining of all the benefits from the EU. By focusing on the individual level, I try to investigate how the distortion of information has impacted upon people’s voting behavior in the Brexit referendum.
The study shows that against the background of an increased flow of immigrants and heightened anti-globalization mood, voters had a strong sense of insecurity. Under such circumstances, the Leave campaign exploited the opportunity to incite voters on issues they cared most about, manipulated information during the demagogic campaign, and misled people on their voting decision. In addition, the model also demonstrates that voters’ socioeconomic status and mental cognizance have the same effect on people’s voting behavior. In the nutshell, this thesis uses micro-level analysis to investigate voter behavior in the Brexit referendum. It brings in “information distortion” as a key variable in explaining voter behavior, a variable largely neglected in the existing literature on issue voting.
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研討會論文
Lu, Chien-Yi. 2016. “Brexit and the Anti-Establishment Mood.” Presented at the
Conference, “Brexit, the European Union, and Implications for the Asia-Pacific,”
Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
政治學系
104252017
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104252017
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 盧倩儀zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林琮紘zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Tsung Hungen_US
dc.creator (作者) 林琮紘zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Tsung Hungen_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Mar-2018 11:54:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Mar-2018 11:54:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Mar-2018 11:54:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104252017en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/116109-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 政治學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 104252017zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2016年的英國脫歐公投,最終以51.89%比48.11%的差距,決定了英國脫歐的命運。各界紛紛揣測各種可能造成民眾投下脫歐一票的原因,包含個人經濟狀況、政黨認同、受民粹操控、反菁英、對歐洲認同等。本文針對既有研究中尚存在之空缺,聚焦「議題投票取向」對選民投票抉擇的影響,探究脫歐陣營對資訊的扭曲是否對選民的投票抉擇有顯著影響。論文就脫歐派針對國民健保、移民、脫歐後的英國對外經貿、失業率、勞工權益保障與是否能無條件持續享有歐盟單一市場好處這六項議題,透過「二分勝算對數模型」進行分析,從個體層次行為來瞭解資訊扭曲對選民在脫歐公投中投票行為的影響。
研究結果顯示,在移民潮來襲、民眾高喊反全球化與選民不安全感高漲的大環境背景下,脫歐陣營對選民所關心之議題的煽動與對資訊的操控使選民在做出投票抉擇時受到明顯誤導。此外,模型結果亦顯示,選民的個人社經背景與心理態度認知同樣對選民投票行為產生影響。總結而言,本研究透過微觀層次的分析,針對促使選民投下脫歐一票的因素做出深入探討,並以「資訊扭曲」作為重要變數,補充議題投票相關研究之不足。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, 51.89 per cent of the voter voted Leave and 48.11 per cent voted Remain. The result sealed the fate of the UK as an outsider of the European Union. While the reasons behind voter’s choice to leave the EU remain disputed, individual voter’s socio-economic status, party identification, populism, anti-elite mood, and identity toward European were among the most frequently listed factors. In order to fill the gap that existing researchs has left, this thesis focuses on the significance of “issue voting” in voting behavior. It discusses if the distortion of information by the Leave campaign had a significant impact on people’s voting choice. It uses the “logistic regression model” to analyse six issues brought about by the Leave campaign. They include the NHS, immigration, trading arrangements with other nations, unemployment, working conditions for British workers, and unconditional maintaining of all the benefits from the EU. By focusing on the individual level, I try to investigate how the distortion of information has impacted upon people’s voting behavior in the Brexit referendum.
The study shows that against the background of an increased flow of immigrants and heightened anti-globalization mood, voters had a strong sense of insecurity. Under such circumstances, the Leave campaign exploited the opportunity to incite voters on issues they cared most about, manipulated information during the demagogic campaign, and misled people on their voting decision. In addition, the model also demonstrates that voters’ socioeconomic status and mental cognizance have the same effect on people’s voting behavior. In the nutshell, this thesis uses micro-level analysis to investigate voter behavior in the Brexit referendum. It brings in “information distortion” as a key variable in explaining voter behavior, a variable largely neglected in the existing literature on issue voting.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 目 錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與研究問題 6
第二章 文獻檢閱 9
第一節 脫歐因素 10
第二節 議題投票與議題資訊對選民的影響 29
第三節 小結 38
第三章 理論與假設 40
第四章 研究方法與變數建構 68
第一節 研究方法 68
第二節 變數建構 70
第五章 模型設定與分析結果 87
第一節 模型設定 88
第二節 分析結果 92
第三節 模型穩定性之檢驗 99
第六章 結論 105
第一節 研究發現 106
第二節 研究限制與未來研究建議 110
參考書目 113
附錄一 各變數編碼表(自變數為二分類) 142
附錄二 各變數編碼表(自變數為有序多分) 147

圖 目 次
【圖1】 脫歐公投1月至6月23日之選民投票傾向 1
【圖2】 2001年至2016年難民庇護申請案件數量 21
【圖3】 2008年至2016年非歐盟公民之庇護申請人數 22
【圖4】 脫歐公投媒體報導議題政策之篇數(時間:選前10週至選舉當週) 31
【圖5-1】 脫歐後的NHS與平面媒體交叉分析直條圖 61
【圖5-2】 脫歐後的移民量與平面媒體交叉分析直條圖 62
【圖5-3】 脫歐後的英國與國際貿易量與平面媒體交叉分析直條圖 63
【圖5-4】 脫歐後的失業率與平面媒體交叉分析直條圖 64
【圖5-5】 脫歐後勞工權益保障與平面媒體交叉分析直條圖 65
【圖5-6】 脫歐後英國仍無條件享有歐盟單一市場好處與平面媒體交叉分析直條圖 66
【圖6】 變數建構圖 71
【圖7】 人民投票選擇英國在歐盟的去留 72

表 目 次
【表1】 比較1975與2016之英國脫歐公投 2
【表2】 英國脫歐公投之性別與年齡比例 11
【表3】 英國區域與脫歐公投之交叉分析 15
【表4】 英國主要支持留歐與脫歐之代表政治人物 27
【表5】 英國主要政黨支持脫歐或留歐 28
【表6】 英國平面媒體支持留歐或脫歐 59
【表7】 英國選舉研究各波調查時間表 69
【表8】 英國選舉研究各波調查時間表 70
【表9-1】 脫歐後的NHS次數分配表 72
【表9-2】 脫歐後的移民量次數分配表 73
【表9-3】 脫歐後英國與國際貿易量次數分配表 74
【表9-4】 脫歐後的失業率次數分配表 74
【表9-5】 脫歐後勞工權益保障次數分配表 75
【表9-6】 脫歐後英國仍無條件享有歐盟單一市場好處次數分配表 76
【表9-7】 年齡次數分配表 77
【表9-8】 性別次數分配表 77
【表9-9】 教育程度次數分配表 78
【表9-10】 居住區域次數分配表 79
【表9-11】 勞工階級次數分配表 80
【表9-12】 經濟狀況次數分配表 81
【表9-13】 政黨認同次數分配表 81
【表9-14】 反菁英情緒次數分配表 82
【表9-15】 民粹程度次數分配表 84
【表9-16】 歐洲認同次數分配表 84
【表9-17】 對歐盟滿意度次數分配表 85
【表9-18】 對歐盟民主滿意度次數分配表 86
【表10】 人民投票選擇英國在歐盟的去留次數分配表 88
【表11-1】 二分勝算對數模型:脫歐陣營與選民投票選擇脫歐(Model 1) 96
【表11-2】 二分勝算對數模型:脫歐陣營與選民個人背景之投票選擇(Model2) 97
【表12-1】 二分類自變數加總結果 100
【表12-2】 有序多分自變數部分結果 102
【表12-3】 實證模型穩定性檢定結果一覽表 104
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dc.format.extent 4389224 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104252017en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 英國脫歐公投zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投票抉擇zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 議題投票行為zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資訊扭曲zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 個體層次分析zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Brexit referendumen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Voting choiceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Issue voting behavioren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Information distortionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Micro-level analysisen_US
dc.title (題名) 資訊扭曲在英國選民脫歐抉擇之角色zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Role of Information Distortion in the Brexit Referendumen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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研討會論文
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Conference, “Brexit, the European Union, and Implications for the Asia-Pacific,”
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