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題名 Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing market
作者 林士貴
Chuang, Ming-Che
Yang, Wan-Ru
Chen, Ming-Chi
Lin, Shih-Kuei
貢獻者 金融系
關鍵詞 MI contracts; Markov switching model; housing price cycles; jump risks; prepayment risks
日期 2018
上傳時間 21-Mar-2018 17:31:51 (UTC+8)
摘要 Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.
關聯 EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 24(11), 909-943
資料類型 article
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2017.1359199
dc.contributor 金融系zh_Tw
dc.creator (作者) 林士貴zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chuang, Ming-Cheen_US
dc.creator (作者) Yang, Wan-Ruen_US
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Ming-Chien_US
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Shih-Kueien_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 21-Mar-2018 17:31:51 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 21-Mar-2018 17:31:51 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 21-Mar-2018 17:31:51 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/116395-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.en_US
dc.format.extent 109 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype text/html-
dc.relation (關聯) EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 24(11), 909-943-
dc.subject (關鍵詞) MI contracts; Markov switching model; housing price cycles; jump risks; prepayment risksen_US
dc.title (題名) Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing marketzh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) article-
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1080/1351847X.2017.1359199-
dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2017.1359199-