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題名 財政整頓的不對稱效果 - 追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用
Asymmetric effects of fiscal consolidation - an application of panel data quantile regression
作者 陳彥凱
Chen, Yen-Kai
貢獻者 林馨怡
Lin, Hsin-Yi
陳彥凱
Chen, Yen-Kai
關鍵詞 財政整頓
產出成長
非線性
分量迴歸
追蹤資料
Fiscal consolidation
Output growth
Nonlinearity
Quantile regression
Panel data
日期 2018
上傳時間 9-Apr-2018 16:03:55 (UTC+8)
摘要 全球金融危機之後，在許多國家嚴重赤字之下，各界皆相當關心財政整頓效果。本文參考 Lin(2016) 的三階段方法估計動態追蹤資料分量迴歸，並使用敘事法 (narrative approach) 所建構的財政整頓衝擊變數，分析 17 個 OECD 國家 1978-2007 年跨國追蹤資料，探討財政整頓對經濟成長的影響效果。實證結果顯示財政整頓對經濟成長為負向影響，實施財政整頓會抑制產出，對一國經濟造成損害，且在經濟情勢不佳時，該負向效果更明顯。
參考文獻 Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., 2010, Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending, in J.R. Brown (eds). Tax Policy and the Economy, 24, 35–68.
Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., 2012, The Design of Fiscal Adjustments, in J.R. Brown (eds). Tax Policy and the Economy, 27, 19–67.
Alesina, A., Barbiero, O., Favero, C., Giavazzi, F., Paradisi, M., 2017. The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper No. 23385.
Alesina, A., Perotti, R., 1995. Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries. Economic Policy, 10(21), 205–248.
Anderson, T.W., Hsiao, C., 1981. Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(375), 598–606.
Arellano, M., Bond, S., 1991. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277– 297.
Baker, D., 2010, The Myth of Expansionary Fiscal Austerity. Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
Barro, R.J., 1974. Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095–1117.
Barro, R.J., 1981. Output Effects of Government Purchases. Journal of Political Economy, 89(6), 1086–1121.
Beetsma, R., Giuliodpri, M., 2011. The Effects of Government Purchase Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU. The Economic Journal, 121, 4–32.
Blanchard, O.J., Leigh, D., 2013. Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers NBER Working Paper No. 18779.
Botta, A., 2015. The Theoretical Weaknesses of the Expansionary Austerity Doctrine. PKSG Working Paper No.1511.
Canay, I.A., 2011. A Simple Approach to Quantile Regression for Panel Data. The Econometrics Journal, 14(3), 368–386.
Canzoneri, M., Collard, F., Dellas, H.,Diba, B., 2016. Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions. The Economic Journal, 126, 75–108.
Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S., 2011. When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large? Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78–121.
Cloyne, J., 2013. Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom. American Economic Review, 103(4), 1507–1528.
Corsetti, G., Meier, A., M uller, G., 2012. What Determines Government Spending Multipliers. IMF Working Paper No. 12/150.
DeLong, J.B., Summers, L.H., 2012. Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 233–297.
Devries, P., Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., Pescatori, A., 2011. An Action–based Analysis of Fiscal Consolidation in OECD Countries. IMF Working Paper No. 11/128.
Evans, M.K., 1969. Reconstruction and Estimation of the Balanced Budget Multiplier. Review of Economics and Statistic, 51(1), 14–25.
Fatás, A., Summers, L.H., 2016. The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations. NBER Working Paper No. 22374.
Friedman, M., Schwartz, A.J., 1963. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Giavazzi, F.,Pagano, M., 1990. Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 5, 75–111.
Giavazzi, F.,Pagano, M., 1996. Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience. Swedish Economic Policy Review, 3(1), 67–103.
Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., Pescatori, A., 2014. Expansionary Austerity: New International Evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 949–968.
Gupta, S., Jalles, J.T., Mulas-Granados, C., Schena, M., 2017. Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations: Do They Mean What They Say? IMF Working Papers No.17/39.
Hall, R.E., 1986. The Role of Consumption in Economic Fluctuations. The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press.
Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E.G., V´egh, C.A., 2013. How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60, 239–254.
Jeong, K.J., 2017. Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in 18 OECD Countries. Seoul Journal of Economics, 30(1), 51–91.
Jordá, Ó., Taylor, A.M., 2016. The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy. The Economic Journal, 126(590), 219–255.
Keynes, J.M., 1937. How to Avoid a Slump. The Times, 12–14th January.
Koenker, R., 2004. Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 91, 74–89.
Koenker, R., Bassett, G., 1978. Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46, 33–50.
Kraay, A., 2012. How Large is the Government Sgpending Multiplier? Evidence from the World Bank Lending. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127, 829–887.
Krugman, P., 2010, Myths of Austerity. New York Times Op-Ed Column, July 2.
Lalik, M. 2016. Interactions Between Fiscal Multipliers and Sovereign Risk Premium During Fiscal Consolidation: Model Based Assessment for the Euro Area. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 2016.
Lee, S., 2007. Endogeneity in Quantile Regression Models: A Control Function Approach. Journal of Econometrics, 141(2), 1131–1158.
Lemoine, M., Lindé, J., 2016. Fiscal Consolidation under Imperfect Credibility. European Economic Review, 88, 108–141.
Lin, H.Y., 2016. Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression. Working Paper.
Lucas, R.E., Jr., 1976. Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique. In: K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.). Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1(1), 19–46.
Mountford, A., Uhlig, H., 2009. What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 960–992.
Nakamura, E., Steinsson, J., 2014. Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions. American Economic Review, 104(3), 753–792.
Perotti, R., 2005. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries. CEPR Discussion Papers 4842.
Perotti, R., 2007. In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy. NBER Working Paper No. 13143.
Ravn, M.O., Schmitt–Groh, M., Uribe, M., 2012. Consumption, Government Spending, and the Real Exchange Rate. Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 215–234.
Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1989. Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 4, 121–170.
Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1994. Monetary Policy Matters. Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(1), 75–88.
Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 2010. The Macroconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100(3), 763–801.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
105258002
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258002
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林馨怡zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Hsin-Yien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳彥凱zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Yen-Kaien_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳彥凱zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Yen-Kaien_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Apr-2018 16:03:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Apr-2018 16:03:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Apr-2018 16:03:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105258002en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/116790-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 105258002zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 全球金融危機之後，在許多國家嚴重赤字之下，各界皆相當關心財政整頓效果。本文參考 Lin(2016) 的三階段方法估計動態追蹤資料分量迴歸，並使用敘事法 (narrative approach) 所建構的財政整頓衝擊變數，分析 17 個 OECD 國家 1978-2007 年跨國追蹤資料，探討財政整頓對經濟成長的影響效果。實證結果顯示財政整頓對經濟成長為負向影響，實施財政整頓會抑制產出，對一國經濟造成損害，且在經濟情勢不佳時，該負向效果更明顯。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 緒論 1
2 文獻回顧 3
2.1 擴張性財政整頓 4
2.2 緊縮性財政整頓 7
2.3 非線性效果 9
3 計量方法 14
3.1 動態追蹤資料 14
3.2 追蹤資料分量迴歸 16
3.3 動態追蹤資料分量迴歸 17
4 資料與模型 20
4.1 資料 20
4.2 模型設定 22
5 實證結果 24
5.1 基本結果 24
5.2 完整模型 27
5.3 財政整頓遞延效果 27
5.4 不同樣本國家 29
5.5 政策工具與國家性質 31
5.6 貨幣政策因素 32
6 結論 34
參考文獻 40		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258002en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政整頓zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 產出成長zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 非線性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分量迴歸zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤資料zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fiscal consolidationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Output growthen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nonlinearityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Quantile regressionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel dataen_US
dc.title (題名) 財政整頓的不對稱效果 - 追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Asymmetric effects of fiscal consolidation - an application of panel data quantile regressionen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., 2010, Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending, in J.R. Brown (eds). Tax Policy and the Economy, 24, 35–68.
Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., 2012, The Design of Fiscal Adjustments, in J.R. Brown (eds). Tax Policy and the Economy, 27, 19–67.
Alesina, A., Barbiero, O., Favero, C., Giavazzi, F., Paradisi, M., 2017. The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper No. 23385.
Alesina, A., Perotti, R., 1995. Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries. Economic Policy, 10(21), 205–248.
Anderson, T.W., Hsiao, C., 1981. Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(375), 598–606.
Arellano, M., Bond, S., 1991. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277– 297.
Baker, D., 2010, The Myth of Expansionary Fiscal Austerity. Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
Barro, R.J., 1974. Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095–1117.
Barro, R.J., 1981. Output Effects of Government Purchases. Journal of Political Economy, 89(6), 1086–1121.
Beetsma, R., Giuliodpri, M., 2011. The Effects of Government Purchase Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU. The Economic Journal, 121, 4–32.
Blanchard, O.J., Leigh, D., 2013. Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers NBER Working Paper No. 18779.
Botta, A., 2015. The Theoretical Weaknesses of the Expansionary Austerity Doctrine. PKSG Working Paper No.1511.
Canay, I.A., 2011. A Simple Approach to Quantile Regression for Panel Data. The Econometrics Journal, 14(3), 368–386.
Canzoneri, M., Collard, F., Dellas, H.,Diba, B., 2016. Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions. The Economic Journal, 126, 75–108.
Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S., 2011. When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large? Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78–121.
Cloyne, J., 2013. Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom. American Economic Review, 103(4), 1507–1528.
Corsetti, G., Meier, A., M uller, G., 2012. What Determines Government Spending Multipliers. IMF Working Paper No. 12/150.
DeLong, J.B., Summers, L.H., 2012. Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 233–297.
Devries, P., Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., Pescatori, A., 2011. An Action–based Analysis of Fiscal Consolidation in OECD Countries. IMF Working Paper No. 11/128.
Evans, M.K., 1969. Reconstruction and Estimation of the Balanced Budget Multiplier. Review of Economics and Statistic, 51(1), 14–25.
Fatás, A., Summers, L.H., 2016. The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations. NBER Working Paper No. 22374.
Friedman, M., Schwartz, A.J., 1963. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Giavazzi, F.,Pagano, M., 1990. Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 5, 75–111.
Giavazzi, F.,Pagano, M., 1996. Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience. Swedish Economic Policy Review, 3(1), 67–103.
Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., Pescatori, A., 2014. Expansionary Austerity: New International Evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 949–968.
Gupta, S., Jalles, J.T., Mulas-Granados, C., Schena, M., 2017. Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations: Do They Mean What They Say? IMF Working Papers No.17/39.
Hall, R.E., 1986. The Role of Consumption in Economic Fluctuations. The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press.
Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E.G., V´egh, C.A., 2013. How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60, 239–254.
Jeong, K.J., 2017. Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in 18 OECD Countries. Seoul Journal of Economics, 30(1), 51–91.
Jordá, Ó., Taylor, A.M., 2016. The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy. The Economic Journal, 126(590), 219–255.
Keynes, J.M., 1937. How to Avoid a Slump. The Times, 12–14th January.
Koenker, R., 2004. Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 91, 74–89.
Koenker, R., Bassett, G., 1978. Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46, 33–50.
Kraay, A., 2012. How Large is the Government Sgpending Multiplier? Evidence from the World Bank Lending. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127, 829–887.
Krugman, P., 2010, Myths of Austerity. New York Times Op-Ed Column, July 2.
Lalik, M. 2016. Interactions Between Fiscal Multipliers and Sovereign Risk Premium During Fiscal Consolidation: Model Based Assessment for the Euro Area. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 2016.
Lee, S., 2007. Endogeneity in Quantile Regression Models: A Control Function Approach. Journal of Econometrics, 141(2), 1131–1158.
Lemoine, M., Lindé, J., 2016. Fiscal Consolidation under Imperfect Credibility. European Economic Review, 88, 108–141.
Lin, H.Y., 2016. Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression. Working Paper.
Lucas, R.E., Jr., 1976. Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique. In: K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.). Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1(1), 19–46.
Mountford, A., Uhlig, H., 2009. What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 960–992.
Nakamura, E., Steinsson, J., 2014. Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions. American Economic Review, 104(3), 753–792.
Perotti, R., 2005. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries. CEPR Discussion Papers 4842.
Perotti, R., 2007. In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy. NBER Working Paper No. 13143.
Ravn, M.O., Schmitt–Groh, M., Uribe, M., 2012. Consumption, Government Spending, and the Real Exchange Rate. Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 215–234.
Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1989. Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 4, 121–170.
Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1994. Monetary Policy Matters. Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(1), 75–88.
Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 2010. The Macroconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100(3), 763–801.		zh_TW