1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. 學術產出
  3. College of International Affairs
  4. Theses
  5. Item

學術產出-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

政大圖書館

Citation Infomation

題名 實力為和平之母: 以美國的嚇阻戰略與北韓核武危機為例
Peace Through Strength: U.S. Deterrence Strategy and the North Korea Nuclear Crisis
作者 程鳳
Ching, Joey Lynn
貢獻者 柯惠敏
Ko, Ariel Hui-Min
程鳳
Ching, Joey Lynn
關鍵詞 美國
北韓
朝鮮
美國北韓的關係
嚇阻戰略
北韓核武危機
核武
United States of America
North Korea
North Korea
US-North Korea relations
Deterrence strategy
North Korea nuclear crisis
Nuclear weapon
日期 2018
上傳時間 3-Jul-2018 17:37:57 (UTC+8)
摘要 這篇論文研究旨在尋求下列問題的答案：美國如何有效完成不與北韓互相攻擊的策略？從二零一七到二零一八年，北韓的核武危機喚起美國政府重新認識到核武對國家安全的重要性。北韓的核武及導彈試驗，提升了川普與金正恩之間的緊張局勢。也是首次再現自冷戰後，發生核子戰爭的可能性。當北韓的核武能力日益增強的同時，專家們建議川普當局應該改弦易轍，以嚇阻核武攻擊代替解除北韓的核武力量。

因此，本論文有兩個目的：
第一：文章中提出四個有效對北韓提高核武威脅的策略。它們是軍事能力，政府執行承諾的意願，認知能力，國際法令。
第二：用上述四項準則以分析川普當局對北韓的策略，同時如何印象到兩國之間的關係
This research seeks to answer the following question: What conditions are necessary for US deterrence strategies to be effective against North Korea? The 2017-2018 North Korea nuclear crisis has revived the importance of deterrence within US national strategy. Given North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and the escalating tensions between the Trump Administration and Kim Jong-un’s regime, it appears that for the first time since the Cold War, nuclear war is a valid possibility. As North Korea’s nuclear capabilities became increasingly viable, scholars have encouraged the Trump Administration to shift its focus away from compelling denuclearization to deterring nuclear attack. Therefore, this paper serves two purposes. First, this paper proposes a criterion for effective deterrence comprised of four factors that increase threat credibility: military capability, political will, perception, and legitimacy. Second, this criterion is used to evaluate US strategic deterrence under the Trump Administration, and its influence on US-North Korea relations.
參考文獻 Acton, James M. “North Korea: In Deterrence We Trust.” The Diplomat, September 12, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/north-korea-in-deterrence-we-trust/.

Albert, Eleanor. “North Korea’s Military Capabilities.” Council on Foreign Relations,
April 20, 2018. Accessed May 20, 2018. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-koreas-military-capabilities.

Allen, John, Richard Bush, Robert Einhorn, Steven Pifer, Jonathan Pollack, Evans Revere.
“Averting Catastrophe: US Policy Options for North Korea.” Brookings Institute (2017): 3-21. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/fp_201704_
north_korea_avoiding_catastrophe.pdf

“An Assessment of U.S. Military Power.” The Heritage Foundation. Last modified 2018.
Accessed April 26, 2018. https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/an-assessment-of-us-military-power.

Anderson, Nicholas D. “Explaining North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions: Power and Position on
the Korean Peninsula.” Australian Journal of International Affairs 71, no. 6 (2017): 621-641. https://campuspress.yale.edu/nickanderson/files/2017/04/Anderson-2017-Explaining-North-Koreas-Nuclear-Ambitions-website-1dcnbpz.pdf

Arms Control Association. “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) at a Glance.” Last
modified August 17, 2012. Accessed May 21, 2018. https://www.armscontrol.org/fact
sheets/nptfact.

Ashley, Sean Paul. “The Iranian Nuclear Program: Realist vs. Constructivist Models.” PhD
Dissertation. Princeton University, 2012.

Australian Institute of Criminology. “Understanding Deterrence.” AICrime Reduction Matters,
no. 7 (2004):1. https://aic.gov.au/publications/crm/crm027.

Badie, Dina. “Groupthink, Iraq, and the War on Terror: Explaining US Policy Shift toward Iraq.”
Foreign Policy Analysis 6, no. 4 (October 2010): 277-296. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1743-8594.2010.00113.x.

Baker, Peter, and Choe Sang-Hun. “With Snap ‘Yes’ in Oval Office, Trump Gambles on North
Korea.” New York Times, March 10, 2018. https://nyti.ms/2DhrbxV.

Baker, Peter, and Somini Sengupta. “Trump Moves to Widen U.S. Sanctions on North Korea.”
New York Times, September 21, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/world/
asia/trump-korea-japan.html.

Bandow, Doug. “To Stop North Korea, Deterrence Will Beat War Every Time.” National
Interest, December 23, 2017. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/stop-north-korea-deterrence-will-beat-war-every-time-23777.

Batchelor, Tom. “North Korea threatens ‘unimaginable’ strike on US after military drills.” The
Independent, October 19, 2017. Accessed April 13, 2018. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-latest-donald-trump-kim-jong-un-us-attack-drills-unimaginable-strike-nuclear-war-a8009821.html.

Beinart, Peter. “Trump Doesn’t Seem to Buy His Own National Security Strategy.” The Atlantic,
December 19, 2017. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/nss-trump-principled-realism/548741/.

Bennett, Brian. “How Talks with North Korea Convinced Trump to Scrap the Iran Deal.” Time
Magazine, May 8, 2018. http://time.com/5269958/iran-nuclear-deal-donald-trump-north-korea/.

Berlinger, Joshua and Taehoon Lee. “Nuclear test conducted by North Korea, country claims;
South Korea responds with drills.” CNN, September 4, 2017. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/03/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test/index.html.

Blatter, Joachim. Encyclopedia Britannica. “Legitimacy.” Accessed April 13, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/legitimacy.

Borak, Donna. “North Korea sanctions: Here’s what Trump did.” CNN Money, September 21,
2017. http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/21/news/economy/us-north-korea-sanctions-explainer/index.html.

Breuninger, Kevin. “Another national security official departs Trump administration as John
Bolton cleans house.” CNBC, April 12, 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/john-bolton-pushes-out-deputy-national-security-advisor-rick-waddell.html.

Broad, William J., Mika Grondahl, Josh Keller, Alicia Parlapiano, Anjali Singhvi, and Karen
Yourish. “This Missile Could Reach California. But Can North Korea Use It With a Nuclear Weapon?” New York Times, September 3, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/
interactive/2017/08/22/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-weapons.html.

Brunnstrom, David, Matt Spetalnick, Christine Kim. “Trump cancels summit with North Korea’s
Kim, warns that military ready.” Reuters, May 24, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-blows-up-nuclear-test-site-amid-doubts-over-summit-idUSKCN1IP1RY.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. “Perceptions, Deterrence, and Terrorism.” In Principles of
International Politics: People’s Power, Preferences, and Perceptions, 320-345. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2000.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Randolph M. Siverson. “War and the Survival of Political
Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability.” The American Political Science Review 89 no. 4 (December 1995): 841-855. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2082512

Burkle, Frederick M. “Antisocial Personality Disorder and Pathological Narcissism in Prolonged
Conflicts and Wars of the 21st Century.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 10, no. 1 (February 2016): 118-128. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2015.113.

Calamur, Krishnadev. “Nine Notorious Dictators, Nine Shout-Outs From Donald Trump.” The
Atlantic, March 4, 2018. Accessed May 2, 2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/03/trump-xi-jinping-dictators/554810/.

Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Missiles of North Korea.” Missile Defense
Project. Last modified 2018. Accessed May 21, 2018. https://missilethreat.csis.org/
country/dprk/.

Chen, Stephen. “North Korea’s nuclear test site has collapsed… and that may be why Kim Jong-
un suspended tests.” South China Morning Post, April 25, 2018.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un.

Cohen, Zachary. “Missile threat alert for Hawaii a false alarm; officials blame employee who
pushed ‘wrong button.” CNN Politics, January 14, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/13/politics/hawaii-missile-threat-false-alarm/index.html.

Cohen, Zachary and Richard Roth. “UN passes fresh sanctions on North Korea.” CNN Politics,
September 12, 2017. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/11/politics/north-korea-un-security-council-vote/index.html

Constitute Project. Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of)’s Constitution of 1972 with
Amendments through 1998. Chapter 1.

"The Constitution of the United States," Article 1, Section 8.

Copeland, Dale C. “The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism.” International Security
25, no. 2 (Autumn 2000): 187-212.

Cronk, Terri Moon. “Strategic Deterrence More than Nuclear, Stratcom Commander Says.” DoD
News, Defense Media Activity, April 4, 2017. https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1140561/strategic-deterrence-more-than-nuclear-stratcom-commander-says/.

Davenport, Kelsey. “Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy.” Arms
Control Association, May 24, 2018. Accessed May 22, 2018. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron.

De Luce, Dan and Keith Johnson. “Tillerson’s Exit Could Doom the Iran Nuclear Deal.” Foreign
Policy, March 13, 2018. http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/13/tillersons-exit-could-doom-the-iran-nuclear-deal/.

Delk, Josh. “Corker: Trump’s ‘unpredictability’ helps him in negotiations.” The Hill, January 1,
2018. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/370531-corker-trumps-unpredictability-is-working.

“‘Denuclearization of North’ Can Not Be Condition for Dialogue: Federation of Koreans in
U.S.” KCNA, November 16, 2017.

DeWees, Brad. “The Psychology of Perceiving Uncertainty.” War on the Rocks, March 23, 2018.
Accessed May 10, 2018. https://warontherocks.com/2018/03/the-psychology-of-perceiving-uncertainty/.

Dixon, Tom. “Assessing the Success of Self-Reliance: North Korea’s Juche Ideology.” PhD
Dissertation. Newcastle University, 2010.

“Donald Trump’s File.” PolitiFact. Last modified May 2, 2018. Accessed May 5, 2018.
http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/.

“DPRK Vice FM Blasts Australian PM`s Insult to DPRK.” KCNA, November 16, 2017.

“DPRK’s Stand on Reform of UNSC Clarified.” Rodong Sinmun, November 14, 2017.

Duelfer, Charles A., and Stephen Benedict Dyson. “Chronic Misperception and International
Conflict: The U.S.-Iraq Experience.” International Security 36, no. 1 (Summer 2011): 73-100/ https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00045.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “Compellence.” Accessed March 23, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/compellence.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “Deterrence.” Accessed March 23, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/deterrence-political-and-military-strategy.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “Fight-or-flight response.” Accessed April 28, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/science/fight-or-flight-response.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “War Powers Act.” Accessed April 28, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/War-Powers-Act.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “weapon of mass destruction (WMD).” Last modified November 14,
2007. Accessed April 27, 2017. https://global.britannica.com/technology/weapon-of-mass-destruction.

Fearon, James D. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.”
The American Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (September 1994): 577-592. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2944796.

Fearon, James D. “Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs.” The
Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, no. 1 (February 1997): 68-90. http://www.jstor.org/stable/174487.

Ferdinando, Lisa. “Trump, Mattis Hail Spending Bill to Fund Strongest Military Ever.” DoD
News, Defense Media Activity. March 23, 2018. https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1474925/trump-mattis-hail-spending-bill-to-fund-strongest-military-ever/.

Fifield, Anna. “North Korea says it will suspend nuclear and missile tests, shut down test site.”
Washington Post, April 20, 2018. https://wapo.st/2HjsSSj?tid=ss_mail&utm_term
=.61e5ea53e451.

Fifield, Anna. “North Korea’s definition of ‘denuclearization’ is very different from Trump’s.”
Washington Post, April 9, 2018. https://wapo.st/2qjao97?tid=ss_mail&utm_
term=.8f8fbb52fc5a.

Friedman, Edward. “Nuclear Blackmail and the End of the Korean War.” Modern China 1, no. 1
(Jan 1975): 75-91.

Fuchs, Michael H. “Trump’s Doctrine of Unpredictability.” Democracy Journal, January 26,
2018. https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/trumps-doctrine-of-unpredictability/.

Gady, Franz-Stefan. “Trump, Moon Reach Final Agreement to Scrap Warhead Limits for
Ballistic Missiles.” The Diplomat, November 8, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/trump-moon-reach-final-agreement-to-scrap-warhead-limits-for-ballistic-missiles/.

Gaertner, Heinz. “North Korea, Deterrence, and Engagement.” Defense & Security Analysis 30,
no. 4 (2014): 336-345. http://homepage.univie.ac.at/heinz.gaertner/wp-content/2013/11/Korea_Naumann_Gaertner_EDIT_PS.pdf

George, Alexander L., and Richard Smoke. Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and
Practice. New York: Columbia University Press, 1974.

Gerson, Michael S. “The Future of U.S. Nuclear Policy: The Case for No First Use.” Quarterly
Journal: International Security (February 2011): 1-5.

Glaser, Charles. “Realism.” In Contemporary Security Studies, 3rd Edition. Edited by Alan
Collins, 13-27. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Godfrey, Elaine. “The Psychiatrist Telling Congress Trump Could Be Involuntarily Committed.”
The Atlantic, January 12, 2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/
bandy-lee/550193/.

Griffin, Andrew. “Officials put Trump’s name in ‘as many memo paragraphs as we can because
he keeps reading if he’s mentioned.’” The Independent, May 17, 2018. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-intelligence-reports-white-house-read-them-mentioned-name-president-a7740726.html.

“Groupthink.” Psychology Today. Last modified 2018. Accessed May 1, 2018.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/groupthink.

Haltiwanger, John. “Do Americans Want War with North Korea? Majority of U.S Public is
Against Military Interventions, Poll Says.” Newsweek, January 9, 2018. http://www.newsweek.com/war-north-korea-military-interventions-poll-775636.

Hannity, Sean. “Trump: America has to be ‘less predictable,’ Obama an ‘unbelievable divider,’”
Fox News, November 3, 2015. http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2015/11/03/trump-america-has-to-be-less-predictable-obama-unbelievable-divider.html.

Hart, Paul’t. “Irving L. Janis’ Victims of Groupthink.” Political Psychology 12, no. 2 (June
1991): 247-278. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3791464.

Helsel, Phil, Jonathan Allen, and Dennis Romero. “Trump cheered at Michigan rally, roasted in
absence at correspondents’ dinner.” NBC News, April 29, 2018. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-bashes-media-claims-credit-korea-talks-michigan-rally-n869836.

Henderson, Gregory. “Korea.” In Divided Nations in a Divided World, edited by Gregory
Henderson, Richard Ned Lebow, and John G. Stoessinger, 42-96. New York: David McKay Co., 1974.

Holland, Steve and Lesley Wroughton. “Differences on North Korea key to Trump’s Tillerson
decision: sources.” Reuters, March 15, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tillerson/differences-on-north-korea-key-to-trumps-tillerson-decision-sources-idUSKCN1GQ3CD.

“HR McMaster: Why did Trump dump national security adviser?” BBC News, March 22, 2018.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39033934.

Immelman, Aubrey. “The Leadership Style of U.S. President Donald J. Trump.” St. John’s
University and the College of St. Benedict, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, January 2017. Accessed April 29, 2018. https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/
psychology_pubs/107/.

Immelman, Aubrey. “The Personality Profile of Kim Jong-un,” St. John’s University and the
College of St. Benedict, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics. April 26, 2018. Accessed May 1, 2018. http://personality-politics.org/the-personality-profile-of-north-korean-supreme-leader-kim-jong-un.

“Incapacitation [Sentencing] Law and Legal Definition.” USLegal.com. Last modified 2016.
Accessed March 23, 2018. https://definitions.uslegal.com/i/incapacitation-sentencing/.

International Institutions and Global Governance Program. “The Global Nuclear
Nonproliferation Regime.” Council on Foreign Relations, May 21, 2012. Accessed May 20, 2018. https://www.cfr.org/report/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime.

“Iraq study estimates war-related deaths at 461,000.” BBC, October 18, 2013.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24547256.

Jervis, Robert. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1976.

Ji, Yewon. “Three Paradigms of North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions.” Journal of Political Inquiry
2 (2009): 1-14.

Jones, Jeffrey M. “Support for Iraq Military Action Low in Historical Context.” Gallup, June 25,
2014. Accessed April 29, 2018. http://news.gallup.com/poll/171968/support-iraq-military-action-low-historical-context.aspx.

Jost, John T. “Resistance to Change: A Social Psychological Perspective.” Social Research 82,
no. 3 (Fall 2015): 607-636.

Kaempfer, William H., and Anton D. Lowenberg. “The Theory of International Economic
Sanctions: A Public Choice Approach.” The American Economic Review 78, no. 4 (September 1988): 786-793.

Kahl, Colin and John Wolfsthal. “John Bolton Is a National Security Threat.” Foreign Policy,
March 23, 2018. http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/23/john-bolton-is-a-national-security-threat/.

Kahlilzad, Zalmay. “Trump Has Unveiled a Strong National Security Strategy.” National
Interest, December 26, 2017. Accessed April 26, 2018. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-has-unveiled-strong-national-security-strategy-23807.

Kaiman, Jonathan. “North Korea threatens to turn U.S. mainland into a ‘theater of nuclear war.’”
Los Angeles Times, August 9, 2017. Accessed April 13, 2018. http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-north-korea-threatens-to-turn-u-s-1502294652-htmlstory.html

“KAPPC Spokesman on DPRK Stand toward UNSC ‘Sanctions Resolution.’” KCNA, September
12, 2017. Accessed May 10, 2018. https://kcnawatch.co/newstream/1505345461-35556086/kappc-spokesman-on-dprk-stand-toward-unsc-sanctions-resolution/.

Karimi, Faith and James Griffiths. “North Korea calls latest UN sanctions ‘an act of war.’” CNN
Politics, December 25, 2017. Accessed April 13, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/24/politics/north-korea-un-resolution-response/index.html.

Katz, Josh. “Who Will Be President.” New York Times, November 8, 2016.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html.

Kessler, Glenn, Salvador Rizzo, and Meg Kelly. “President Trump has made 3,001 false or
misleading claims so far.” Washington Post, May 1, 2018. Accessed May 1, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/05/01/president-trump-has-made-3001-false-or-misleading-claims-so-far/?utm_term=.d3d231127254.

Khan, Mujeeb R. Encyclopedia Britannica. “Coercion.” Accessed March 23, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/coercion.

Kim, Christine and Jane Chung. “North Korea 2016 economic growth at 17-year high despite
sanctions: South Korea.” Reuters, July 21, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-economy-gdp/north-korea-2016-economic-growth-at-17-year-high-despite-sanctions-south-korea-idUSKBN1A607Z.

Kim, Jack. “Trump agrees to sell South Korea arms worth billions of dollars as treat from North
grows.” The Independent, September 2, 2017. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/america-agrees-sale-arms-military-billions-dollars-south-korea-seoul-donald-trump-president-moon-jae-a7925591.html.

Kirgis. Frederic L. “International Agreements and U.S. Law.” American Society of International
Law Insights 2, no. 5 (May 27, 1997). https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/2/issue/
5/international-agreements-and-us-law.

Kong, Kanga. “U.S.-South Korea Military Drills to Test Kim’s Desire for Talks.” Bloomberg,
March 20, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2018-03-20/u-s-south-korea-military-drills-to-start-april-1-pentagon-says.

Kozhanov, Nikolay A. “U.S. Economic Sanctions against Iran: Undermined by External
Factors,” Middle East Policy Council 18, no. 3 (Fall 2011): 144-160.

Krieger, David. “Ten Serious Flaws in Nuclear Deterrence Theory.” Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, February 7, 2011. https://www.wagingpeace.org/ten-serious-flaws-in-nuclear-deterrence-theory/.

Kruse, Michael. “‘I Need Loyalty.’” Politico Magazine, March/April 2018. Accessed May 2,
2018. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/06/donald-trump-loyalty-staff-2 17227.

Kuo, Mercy A. “Kim Jong-un’s Political Psychology Profile: Insights from Ken Dekleva.” The
Diplomat, October 17, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/kim-jong-uns-political-psychology-profile/.

Lacy, Dean, and Emerson M.S. Niou. “A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage: The
Roles of Preferences, Information, and Threats.” The Journal of Politics 66, no. 1 (February 2004): 25-42.

Lake, Eli. “Washington Loves McMaster, but Trump Doesn’t.” Bloomberg, May 8, 2017.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-08/washington-loves-general-mcmaster-but-trump-doesn-t.

Lamrani, Omar. “Against North Korea, Deterrence Of A Different Kind.” Forbes Magazine,
October 5, 2017. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2017/10/05/against-north-korea-deterrence-of-a-different-kind/#1dbb95f84f43.

Landler, Mark. “The Trump-Kim Summit Was Unprecedented, but the Statement Was Vague.”
New York Times, June 12, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/north-korea-summit.html.

Landler, Mark. “Trump Backs Away From Demand for Immediate North Korean
Denuclearization.” New York Times, May 22, 2018. https://nyti.ms/2LlI1Bc

Lanouette, William. “Civilian Control of Nuclear Weapons.” Arms Control Today, May 8, 2009.
Accessed April 29, 2018. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/Lanouette.

“Letter to UN Secretary-General.” KCNA, November 16, 2017.

Liptak, Kevin. “Trump ramps up pressure to get North Korea summit on track.” CNN Politics,
May 28, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/28/politics/north-korea-trump-summit/index.html.

Liptak, Kevin, and Joshua Berlinger. “Trump misrepresents North Korea nuclear agreement.”
CNN Politics, June 22, 2018. Accessed June 23, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/21/politics/trump-north-korea-nuclear-agreement/index.html.

Majumdar, Dave. “Trump Unveils His New National Security Strategy.” National Interest,
December 18, 2017. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-unveils-his-new-national-security-strategy-23703.

Maxwell, David. “What to Make of North Korea.” The Diplomat, April 11, 2013.
https://thediplomat.com/2013/04/what-to-make-of-north-korea/.

McAdams, Dan P. “The Mind of Donald Trump.” The Atlantic, June 2016. Accessed April 28,
2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-t rump/480771/.

McDevitt, Michael. “Deterring North Korean Provocations.” Brookings Institute, February
7, 2011. https://www.brookings.edu/research/deterring-north-korean-provocations/.

McMaster, H.R., and Gary D. Cohn. “America First Doesn’t Mean America Alone.” The Wall
Street Journal, May 30, 2017. https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-doesnt-mean-america-alone-1496187426.

Mearsheimer, John J. “Structural Realism.” In International Relations Theories: Discipline and
Diversity. Edited by Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve Smith, 71-88. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.

Miller, S.A. “Trump praises Kim Jong-un: ‘Very open and very honorable.’” Washington Times,
April 24, 2018. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018 /apr/24/trump-praises-kim-jong-un-very-open-very-honorable/.

Mitchell, A. Wess. “The Case for Deterrence by Denial.” American Interest, August 12,
2015. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/08/12/the-case-for-deterrence-by-denial/.

Morello, Carol. “IAEA confirms Iran is meeting its commitments under nuclear agreement.”
Washington Post, November 13, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-confirms-iran-is-meeting-its-commitments-under-nuclear-deal/2017/11/13/8d9b9fb0-c893-11e7-b0cf-7689a9f2d84e_story.html.

Morgan, Patrick M. Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, Inc.,
1977.

Morgan, Patrick M. “Deterrence and System Management: The Case of North Korea.” Conflict
Management and Peace Science 23, no 2 (2006): 121-138.

Mulgan, Aurelia George. “Time to Consider ‘Active Deterrence’ of North Korea.” The
Diplomat, September 05, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/time-to-consider-active-deterrence-of-north-korea/.

Mundy, Timothy S. “Casualty Aversion: Dispelling the Myth.” Monograph, School of Advanced
Military Studies, United States Army Command and General Staff College, 1999.

The National Committee on North Korea. A History of U.S.-DPRK Relations. By Daniel Wertz
and Chelsea Gannon. November 2015.

The National Committee on North Korea. Issue Brief: DPRK Diplomatic Relations. By Daniel
Wertz, JJ Oh, and Kim Insung. August 2016.

NCC Staff. “Executive Orders 101: What are they and how do Presidents use them?” National
Constitution Center, January 23, 2017. Accessed April 28, 2018. https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/executive-orders-101-what-are-they-and-how-do-presidents-use-them/.

Neuman, Scott. “U.S., South Korea Begin Massive Military Exercises.” National Public Radio,
December 4, 2017. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/04/568263780/u-s-south-korea-begin-massive-military-exercises.

Nilsson-Wright, John. “North Korea’s Tight Line Between Deterrence and Escalation.” Chatham
House, November 30, 2017. https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/north-koreas-tight-line-between-deterrence-and-escalation.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “A Political and Military Alliance.” Accessed May 21,
2018. https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html#basic

North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The North Atlantic Treaty. April 4, 1949. Washington, D.C.

“North Korea nuclear tests: What did they achieve?” BBC News, September 3, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706.

“North Korea says new missile puts all of US in striking range.” BBC News, November 29, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42162462.

“North Korea’s nuclear programme: How advanced is it?” BBC News, August 10, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699.

Nye, Joseph S., Jr. The Future of Power. New York, NY: PublicAffairs, 2011.

Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Matters. “Chapter 1: Nuclear
Deterrence – U.S. Policy and Strategy.” In Nuclear Matters Handbook 2016.

Oxford Dictionary. “Credibility.” Accessed March 29, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/credibility.

Oxford Dictionary. “Legitimacy.” Accessed May 10, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/legitimacy.

Oxford Dictionary. “Overmatch.” Accessed April 26, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/overmatch.

Oxford Dictionary. “Political will.” Accessed April 26, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/political_will

Oxford Dictionary of Phrase and Fable. “Fog of war.” Encyclopedia.com. Accessed May 3,
2018. https://www.encyclopedia.com/humanities/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/fog-war.

Parker, Clifton B. “Why nuclear deterrence can work on North Korea.” Center for International
Security and Cooperation, November 14, 2017. https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/why-nuclear-deterrence-can-work-north-korea.

Pence, Mike. “Statements from Vice President Mike Pence on North Korea.” The White House,
March 9, 2018. Accessed March 24 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-vice-president-mike-pence-north-korea-2/.

Philps, Alan. “The Obama doctrine.” Chatham House (April & May 2016). Accessed
November 1, 2017. https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/obama-doctrine.

Pifer, Steven, Richard C. Bush, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Martin S. Indyk, Michael O’Hanlon,
Kenneth M. Pollack. “U.S. Nuclear and Extended Deterrence: Considerations and Challenges.” Brookings Institute 3 (May 2010). https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_nuclear_deterrence.pdf.

Press, Daryl G. Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats. Ithaca: Cornell
University Press, 2005.

Ratcliffe, Rebecca. “North Korea tops list of world’s most neglected humanitarian crises.” The
Guardian, January 23, 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jan/23/north-korea-tops-list-most-neglected-humanitarian-crises.

Reuters Staff. “North Korea threatens to ‘counter’ U.S. over military drills.” Reuters, March 3,
2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-threatens-to-counter-u-s-over-military-drills-idUSKCN1GF0CT

Revere, Evans J.R., “Dealing with a nuclear-armed North Korea.” Brookings Institute,
October 4, 2016. https://www.brookings.edu/research/dealing-with-a-nuclear-armed-north-korea/

Revere, Evans J.R. “The Trump administration’s North Korea policy: Headed for success or
failure?” Brookings Institute, July 10, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/07/10/the-trump-administrations-north-korea-policy-headed-for-success-or-failure/.

“Rodong Sinmun Dismisses U.S.-S. Korea Military Nexus Aggressive.” KCNA, November 16,
2017.

Rosett, Claudia. “Our Nagging North Korea Problem,” The Journal of International Security
Affairs no. 27 (Fall/Winter 2014): 47-54.

“S. Korean Expedition Stages Anti-Trump, Anti-U.S. Demo in UK.” Rodong Sinmun, November
14, 2017.

Sagan, Scott D. “The Korean Missile Crisis: Why Deterrence Is Still the Best Option.” Foreign
Affairs, September 10, 2017. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2017-09-10/korean-missile-crisis.

Sang-Hun, Choe. “North and South Korea Set Bold Goals: A Final Peace and No Nuclear
Arms.” New York Times, April 27, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/
world/asia/north-korea-south-kim-jong-un.html.

Sang-Hun, Choe. “South Korea Plans ‘Decapitation Unit’ to Try to Scare North’s Leaders.” New
York Times, September 12, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/world/asia/north-south-korea-decapitation-.html?mtrref=www.google.com.tw.

Schallhorn, Kaitlyn. “Trump on North Korea, from ‘Rocket Man’ to ‘fire and fury.’” Fox News,
April 18, 2018. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/04/18/trump-on-north-korea-from-rocket-man-to-fire-and-fury.html.

Schelling, Thomas C. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966.

Sengupta, Somini. “After U.S. Compromise, Security Council Strengthens North Korea
Sanctions.” New York Times, September 11, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/
2017/09/11/world/asia/us-security-council-north-korea.html?mcubz=1.

Shabad, Rebecca. “Mike Pompeo promises to be a ‘talent hawk’ for the State Department.” NBC
News, April 12, 2018. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pompeo-address-criticism-he-s-too-hawkish-secretary-state-n865271.

Shaw, Malcolm. Encyclopedia Britannica. “International law.” Accessed May 23, 2018. https://www.britannica.com/topic/international-law.

Sherman, Ryne A. “The Personality of Donald Trump.” Psychology Today, September 17, 2015.
Accessed May 10, 2018. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-situation-lab/201509/the-personality-donald-trump.

Shin, Hyonhee. “South Korea president says Trump deserves Nobel Peace Prize.” Reuters, April
30, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-trump/south-korea-president-says-trump-deserves-nobel-peace-prize-idUSKBN1I10OD.

Singh, Michael. “Trump Should Focus on Deterring North Korea.” Foreign Policy, October 17,
2017. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/17/trump-should-focus-on-deterring-north-korea/.

Smith, Caroline, and James M. Lindsay. “Rally ‘Round the Flag: Opinion in the United States
before and after the Iraq War.” Brookings Institute, June 1, 2003. Accessed May 10, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rally-round-the-flag-opinion-in-the-united-states-before-and-after-the-iraq-war/.

Smith, David. “Rex Tillerson’s firing leave US diplomacy in turmoil.” The Guardian, March 13,
2018. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/13/rex-tillerson-fired-latest-news-donald-trump.

“South Korea and White House on talks with North: full transcript.” The Guardian, March 9,
2018. Accessed March 24 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/09/south-korea-white-house-talks-north-full-transcript.

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. “Political Legitimacy.” Last modified April 24, 2017.
Accessed April 13, 2018. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/legitimacy/#DesNorConLeg.

Stelzenmuller, Constanze. “At last: The Trump Doctrine, revealed.” Brookings Institute,
June 5, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/06/05/at-last-the-trump-doctrine-revealed/.

Sword, Rosemary K.M. and Philip Zimbardo. “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump.”
Psychology Today, September 28, 2017. Accessed May 2, 2018. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-time-cure/201709/the-dangerous-case-donald-trump.

Tangeras, Thomas. “Democracy, Autocracy and the Likelihood of International Conflict.”
Research Institute of Industrial Economics. IFN Working Paper No. 751. 2008. Accessed April 13, 2018, http://www.ifn.se/wfiles/wp/wp571.pdf.

Tannenbaum, Melanie. “Decoding Trump-Mania: The Psychological Allure of Hating Political
Correctness, Part 1.” Scientific American, August 14, 2015. Accessed May 10, 2018. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/psysociety/decoding-trump-mania-the-psychological-allure-of-hating-political-correctness-part-1/.

Terry, Sue Mi. “North Korea’s Strategic Goals and Policy towards the United States and South Korea.” International Journal of Korean Studies 17, no. 2 (Fall 2013): 63-92.

Tobey, William. “Squaring the Nonproliferation Circle.” The Journal of International Security Affairs no. 26 (Spring/Summer 2014): 47-53.

Trump, Donald. “Executive Order 13765, Minimizing the Economic Burden of the Patient
Protection and Affordable Care Act Pending Repeal,” January 20, 2017. Executive Office of the President. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/24/2017-01799/minimizing-the-economic-burden-of-the-patient-protection-and-affordable-care-act-pending-repeal.

Trump, Donald. “Joint Statement of President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America
and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea at the Singapore Summit.” The White House, June 12, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kim-jong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/.

Trump, Donald. “Letter to Chairman Kim Jong Un.” The White House, May 24, 2018.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/letter-chairman-kim-jong-un/.

Trump, Donald. “President Donald J. Trump is Ending United States Participation in an
Unacceptable Iran Deal.” The White House, May 8, 2018. Accessed May 24, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-ending-united-states-participation-unacceptable-iran-deal/.

Trump, Donald. “Remarks by President Trump at the 2018 White House Easter Egg Roll.” The
White House, April 2, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-2018-white-house-easter-egg-roll/.

Trump, Donald. “Remarks by President Trump in Press Gaggle.” The White House, June 15,
2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-press-gaggle/.

Trump, Donald. “Transcript: Donald Trump on His Foreign Policy Views.” Interview by Maggie
Haberman and David E. Sanger. New York Times, March 26, 2016. Accessed May 18, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-transcript.html.

“Trump fires Rex Tillerson as secretary of state.” BBC News, March 13, 2018. Accessed May 3, 2018. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43388723.

“Trump to Suspend Military Exercises on Korean Peninsula.” New York Times, June 11, 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/world/asia/trump-kim-live-updates.html.

United Nations. General Assembly. Charter of the United Nations. June 26, 1945. http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/introductory-note/index.html.

United Nations. Secretariat. Assessment of Member States’ advances to the Working Capital
Fund for the biennium 2018-2019 and contributions to the United Nations regular budget for 2018. ST/ADM/SER.B/973. December 29, 2017. http://undocs.org/en/ST/ADM/
SER.B/973.

United States, and Donald Trump. An American Budget: Budget of the U.S. Government.
Washington, DC: Office of Management and Budget, 2018.

United States, and Donald Trump. National Security Strategy of the United States of America.
Washington, DC: The White House, 2017.

“U.S. Can Never Break Korean People’s Will: Swiss Bodies.” Rodong Sinmun, November 14,
2017. Accessed May 10, 2018. http://www.rodong.rep.kp/en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-11-14-0010.

U.S. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Full Committee Hearing Authority to
Order the Use of Nuclear Weapons. 115th Cong., November 14, 2017.

U.S. Congress. Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq,.108th Cong., 1st sess., July 7, 2004.

U.S. Department of Defense. “DoD 101: Overview of the Department of Defense.” Accessed
April 28, 2018. https://www.defense.gov/About/DoD-101/.

U.S. Department of Defense. Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea 2015: A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2015.

U.S. Department of Defense. Nuclear Posture Review Report. Washington, DC: Office of the
Secretary of Defense, 2018.

U.S. Department of Defense. Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United
States of America. Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2018.

U.S. Department of State. Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic
of Korea. October 1, 1953.

U.S. Department of State. “Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.” Bureau of International Security
and Nonproliferation. https://www.state.gov/t/isn/npt/.

U.S. Department of State. Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. U.S. Relations with North
Korea: Fact Sheet. October 18, 2016.

U.S. Government Accountability Office. Measures of Military Capability: A Discussion
Of Their Merits, Limitations, And Interrelationships. Washington, DC: US General Accounting Office, 1985.

“U.S. majority backs military action vs. North Korea: Gallup poll.” Reuters, September 15, 2017.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-poll/u-s-majority-backs-military-action-vs-north-korea-gallup-poll-idUSKCN1BQ1LP.

van Wyk, Jo-Ansie. “The International Politics of Nuclear Weapons: A Constructivist Analysis.”
Scientia Militaria, South African Journal of Military Studies 35, no.1 (2007): 23-45.

The White House. Our Government: The Executive Branch. Accessed April 28, 2018
https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/the-executive-branch/.

The White House. Our Government: The Legislative Branch. Accessed April 28, 2018.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/the-legislative-branch/.

Wendt, Alexander. Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 1999.

Wolf, Barry. “When the Weak Attack the Strong: Failures of Deterrence.” RAND Corporation,
1991. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/notes/2005/N3261.pdf.

Woolf, Amy F. “Defense Primer: Command and Control of Nuclear Forces.” Congressional
Research Service, December 1, 2016. Accessed April 29, 2018. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf.

“2018 Military Strength Ranking.” GlobalFirepower.com. Last modified 2018. Accessed March
26, 2018. https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
105862024
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1058620241
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 柯惠敏zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Ko, Ariel Hui-Minen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 程鳳zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ching, Joey Lynnen_US
dc.creator (作者) 程鳳zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Ching, Joey Lynnen_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Jul-2018 17:37:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Jul-2018 17:37:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Jul-2018 17:37:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1058620241en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118309-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 105862024zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 這篇論文研究旨在尋求下列問題的答案：美國如何有效完成不與北韓互相攻擊的策略？從二零一七到二零一八年，北韓的核武危機喚起美國政府重新認識到核武對國家安全的重要性。北韓的核武及導彈試驗，提升了川普與金正恩之間的緊張局勢。也是首次再現自冷戰後，發生核子戰爭的可能性。當北韓的核武能力日益增強的同時，專家們建議川普當局應該改弦易轍，以嚇阻核武攻擊代替解除北韓的核武力量。

因此，本論文有兩個目的：
第一：文章中提出四個有效對北韓提高核武威脅的策略。它們是軍事能力，政府執行承諾的意願，認知能力，國際法令。
第二：用上述四項準則以分析川普當局對北韓的策略，同時如何印象到兩國之間的關係		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research seeks to answer the following question: What conditions are necessary for US deterrence strategies to be effective against North Korea? The 2017-2018 North Korea nuclear crisis has revived the importance of deterrence within US national strategy. Given North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and the escalating tensions between the Trump Administration and Kim Jong-un’s regime, it appears that for the first time since the Cold War, nuclear war is a valid possibility. As North Korea’s nuclear capabilities became increasingly viable, scholars have encouraged the Trump Administration to shift its focus away from compelling denuclearization to deterring nuclear attack. Therefore, this paper serves two purposes. First, this paper proposes a criterion for effective deterrence comprised of four factors that increase threat credibility: military capability, political will, perception, and legitimacy. Second, this criterion is used to evaluate US strategic deterrence under the Trump Administration, and its influence on US-North Korea relations.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Abstract I
Acknowledgements II
Acronyms III

Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1. Research Motivation and Purpose 2
1.2. Research Question 4
1.3. Research Methods and Objects 4

Chapter 2: Background 6
2.1. North Korea’s Foreign Policy: Principles, Ideology, and Goals 6
2.2. The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy 10
2.3. The Battle Over North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program 11
2.4. Conceptualizations and US Applications of Deterrence 15

Chapter 3: Literature Review 20
3.1. US Policy Options 20
3.2. Is Deterrence the Answer to the North Korea Problem? 23

Chapter 4: Theoretical Considerations 28
4.1. Realism 28
4.2. Constructivism 29
4.3. Theoretical Applications to Deterrence 30

Chapter 5: Analytical Framework 32
5.1. Coercion, Compellence, and Deterrence 32
5.2. The Relevance of Deterrence in US-North Korea Relations 35

Chapter 6: Criteria for Deterrence 39

Chapter 7: Military Capabilities 41
7.1. The US Nuclear Arsenal and Deterrence Capabilities 43
7.2. Underprepared for Overmatch? 47
7.3. Quantifying North Korea’s Military Capabilities 50
7.4. Chapter Conclusion 55

Chapter 8: Political Will 57
8.1. The US Political System and the Power of the President 61
8.2. Donald Trump: A New Kind of American President 64
8.3. “Groupthink” in the White House? 71
8.4. The Role of Congress and Public Opinion 76
8.5. Kim Jong-un: Friendly Force or Fearsome Fiend? 78
8.6. Chapter Conclusion 81

Chapter 9: Perceptions 83
9.1. Exchanging Messages with the Enemy 86
9.2. Signaling Through the Smoke: US Messages to North Korea 87
9.3. The Strength of the Enemy Image: Lessons from the Iraq War 88
9.4. North Korea’s Enemy Image 91
9.5. Perceiving Uncertainty Within the Trump Administration 93
9.6. North Korea’s Smoke and Signals 97
9.7. Chapter Conclusion 102

Chapter 10: Legitimacy 104
10.1. The Case for Nuclear Modernization 109
10.2. The Legitimizing Power of the UN and US Extended Deterrence 111
10.3. Chapter Conclusion 113

Chapter 11: Conclusion 115
References 119		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1379277 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1058620241en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 北韓zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 朝鮮zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國北韓的關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 嚇阻戰略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 北韓核武危機zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 核武zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) United States of Americaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) North Koreaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) North Koreaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) US-North Korea relationsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Deterrence strategyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) North Korea nuclear crisisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nuclear weaponen_US
dc.title (題名) 實力為和平之母: 以美國的嚇阻戰略與北韓核武危機為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Peace Through Strength: U.S. Deterrence Strategy and the North Korea Nuclear Crisisen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Acton, James M. “North Korea: In Deterrence We Trust.” The Diplomat, September 12, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/north-korea-in-deterrence-we-trust/.

Albert, Eleanor. “North Korea’s Military Capabilities.” Council on Foreign Relations,
April 20, 2018. Accessed May 20, 2018. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-koreas-military-capabilities.

Allen, John, Richard Bush, Robert Einhorn, Steven Pifer, Jonathan Pollack, Evans Revere.
“Averting Catastrophe: US Policy Options for North Korea.” Brookings Institute (2017): 3-21. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/fp_201704_
north_korea_avoiding_catastrophe.pdf

“An Assessment of U.S. Military Power.” The Heritage Foundation. Last modified 2018.
Accessed April 26, 2018. https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/an-assessment-of-us-military-power.

Anderson, Nicholas D. “Explaining North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions: Power and Position on
the Korean Peninsula.” Australian Journal of International Affairs 71, no. 6 (2017): 621-641. https://campuspress.yale.edu/nickanderson/files/2017/04/Anderson-2017-Explaining-North-Koreas-Nuclear-Ambitions-website-1dcnbpz.pdf

Arms Control Association. “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) at a Glance.” Last
modified August 17, 2012. Accessed May 21, 2018. https://www.armscontrol.org/fact
sheets/nptfact.

Ashley, Sean Paul. “The Iranian Nuclear Program: Realist vs. Constructivist Models.” PhD
Dissertation. Princeton University, 2012.

Australian Institute of Criminology. “Understanding Deterrence.” AICrime Reduction Matters,
no. 7 (2004):1. https://aic.gov.au/publications/crm/crm027.

Badie, Dina. “Groupthink, Iraq, and the War on Terror: Explaining US Policy Shift toward Iraq.”
Foreign Policy Analysis 6, no. 4 (October 2010): 277-296. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1743-8594.2010.00113.x.

Baker, Peter, and Choe Sang-Hun. “With Snap ‘Yes’ in Oval Office, Trump Gambles on North
Korea.” New York Times, March 10, 2018. https://nyti.ms/2DhrbxV.

Baker, Peter, and Somini Sengupta. “Trump Moves to Widen U.S. Sanctions on North Korea.”
New York Times, September 21, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/world/
asia/trump-korea-japan.html.

Bandow, Doug. “To Stop North Korea, Deterrence Will Beat War Every Time.” National
Interest, December 23, 2017. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/stop-north-korea-deterrence-will-beat-war-every-time-23777.

Batchelor, Tom. “North Korea threatens ‘unimaginable’ strike on US after military drills.” The
Independent, October 19, 2017. Accessed April 13, 2018. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-latest-donald-trump-kim-jong-un-us-attack-drills-unimaginable-strike-nuclear-war-a8009821.html.

Beinart, Peter. “Trump Doesn’t Seem to Buy His Own National Security Strategy.” The Atlantic,
December 19, 2017. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/nss-trump-principled-realism/548741/.

Bennett, Brian. “How Talks with North Korea Convinced Trump to Scrap the Iran Deal.” Time
Magazine, May 8, 2018. http://time.com/5269958/iran-nuclear-deal-donald-trump-north-korea/.

Berlinger, Joshua and Taehoon Lee. “Nuclear test conducted by North Korea, country claims;
South Korea responds with drills.” CNN, September 4, 2017. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/03/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test/index.html.

Blatter, Joachim. Encyclopedia Britannica. “Legitimacy.” Accessed April 13, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/legitimacy.

Borak, Donna. “North Korea sanctions: Here’s what Trump did.” CNN Money, September 21,
2017. http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/21/news/economy/us-north-korea-sanctions-explainer/index.html.

Breuninger, Kevin. “Another national security official departs Trump administration as John
Bolton cleans house.” CNBC, April 12, 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/john-bolton-pushes-out-deputy-national-security-advisor-rick-waddell.html.

Broad, William J., Mika Grondahl, Josh Keller, Alicia Parlapiano, Anjali Singhvi, and Karen
Yourish. “This Missile Could Reach California. But Can North Korea Use It With a Nuclear Weapon?” New York Times, September 3, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/
interactive/2017/08/22/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-weapons.html.

Brunnstrom, David, Matt Spetalnick, Christine Kim. “Trump cancels summit with North Korea’s
Kim, warns that military ready.” Reuters, May 24, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-blows-up-nuclear-test-site-amid-doubts-over-summit-idUSKCN1IP1RY.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. “Perceptions, Deterrence, and Terrorism.” In Principles of
International Politics: People’s Power, Preferences, and Perceptions, 320-345. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2000.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Randolph M. Siverson. “War and the Survival of Political
Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability.” The American Political Science Review 89 no. 4 (December 1995): 841-855. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2082512

Burkle, Frederick M. “Antisocial Personality Disorder and Pathological Narcissism in Prolonged
Conflicts and Wars of the 21st Century.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 10, no. 1 (February 2016): 118-128. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2015.113.

Calamur, Krishnadev. “Nine Notorious Dictators, Nine Shout-Outs From Donald Trump.” The
Atlantic, March 4, 2018. Accessed May 2, 2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/03/trump-xi-jinping-dictators/554810/.

Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Missiles of North Korea.” Missile Defense
Project. Last modified 2018. Accessed May 21, 2018. https://missilethreat.csis.org/
country/dprk/.

Chen, Stephen. “North Korea’s nuclear test site has collapsed… and that may be why Kim Jong-
un suspended tests.” South China Morning Post, April 25, 2018.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un.

Cohen, Zachary. “Missile threat alert for Hawaii a false alarm; officials blame employee who
pushed ‘wrong button.” CNN Politics, January 14, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/13/politics/hawaii-missile-threat-false-alarm/index.html.

Cohen, Zachary and Richard Roth. “UN passes fresh sanctions on North Korea.” CNN Politics,
September 12, 2017. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/11/politics/north-korea-un-security-council-vote/index.html

Constitute Project. Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of)’s Constitution of 1972 with
Amendments through 1998. Chapter 1.

"The Constitution of the United States," Article 1, Section 8.

Copeland, Dale C. “The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism.” International Security
25, no. 2 (Autumn 2000): 187-212.

Cronk, Terri Moon. “Strategic Deterrence More than Nuclear, Stratcom Commander Says.” DoD
News, Defense Media Activity, April 4, 2017. https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1140561/strategic-deterrence-more-than-nuclear-stratcom-commander-says/.

Davenport, Kelsey. “Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy.” Arms
Control Association, May 24, 2018. Accessed May 22, 2018. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron.

De Luce, Dan and Keith Johnson. “Tillerson’s Exit Could Doom the Iran Nuclear Deal.” Foreign
Policy, March 13, 2018. http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/13/tillersons-exit-could-doom-the-iran-nuclear-deal/.

Delk, Josh. “Corker: Trump’s ‘unpredictability’ helps him in negotiations.” The Hill, January 1,
2018. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/370531-corker-trumps-unpredictability-is-working.

“‘Denuclearization of North’ Can Not Be Condition for Dialogue: Federation of Koreans in
U.S.” KCNA, November 16, 2017.

DeWees, Brad. “The Psychology of Perceiving Uncertainty.” War on the Rocks, March 23, 2018.
Accessed May 10, 2018. https://warontherocks.com/2018/03/the-psychology-of-perceiving-uncertainty/.

Dixon, Tom. “Assessing the Success of Self-Reliance: North Korea’s Juche Ideology.” PhD
Dissertation. Newcastle University, 2010.

“Donald Trump’s File.” PolitiFact. Last modified May 2, 2018. Accessed May 5, 2018.
http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/.

“DPRK Vice FM Blasts Australian PM`s Insult to DPRK.” KCNA, November 16, 2017.

“DPRK’s Stand on Reform of UNSC Clarified.” Rodong Sinmun, November 14, 2017.

Duelfer, Charles A., and Stephen Benedict Dyson. “Chronic Misperception and International
Conflict: The U.S.-Iraq Experience.” International Security 36, no. 1 (Summer 2011): 73-100/ https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00045.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “Compellence.” Accessed March 23, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/compellence.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “Deterrence.” Accessed March 23, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/deterrence-political-and-military-strategy.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “Fight-or-flight response.” Accessed April 28, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/science/fight-or-flight-response.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “War Powers Act.” Accessed April 28, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/War-Powers-Act.

Encyclopedia Britannica. “weapon of mass destruction (WMD).” Last modified November 14,
2007. Accessed April 27, 2017. https://global.britannica.com/technology/weapon-of-mass-destruction.

Fearon, James D. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.”
The American Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (September 1994): 577-592. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2944796.

Fearon, James D. “Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs.” The
Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, no. 1 (February 1997): 68-90. http://www.jstor.org/stable/174487.

Ferdinando, Lisa. “Trump, Mattis Hail Spending Bill to Fund Strongest Military Ever.” DoD
News, Defense Media Activity. March 23, 2018. https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1474925/trump-mattis-hail-spending-bill-to-fund-strongest-military-ever/.

Fifield, Anna. “North Korea says it will suspend nuclear and missile tests, shut down test site.”
Washington Post, April 20, 2018. https://wapo.st/2HjsSSj?tid=ss_mail&utm_term
=.61e5ea53e451.

Fifield, Anna. “North Korea’s definition of ‘denuclearization’ is very different from Trump’s.”
Washington Post, April 9, 2018. https://wapo.st/2qjao97?tid=ss_mail&utm_
term=.8f8fbb52fc5a.

Friedman, Edward. “Nuclear Blackmail and the End of the Korean War.” Modern China 1, no. 1
(Jan 1975): 75-91.

Fuchs, Michael H. “Trump’s Doctrine of Unpredictability.” Democracy Journal, January 26,
2018. https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/trumps-doctrine-of-unpredictability/.

Gady, Franz-Stefan. “Trump, Moon Reach Final Agreement to Scrap Warhead Limits for
Ballistic Missiles.” The Diplomat, November 8, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/trump-moon-reach-final-agreement-to-scrap-warhead-limits-for-ballistic-missiles/.

Gaertner, Heinz. “North Korea, Deterrence, and Engagement.” Defense & Security Analysis 30,
no. 4 (2014): 336-345. http://homepage.univie.ac.at/heinz.gaertner/wp-content/2013/11/Korea_Naumann_Gaertner_EDIT_PS.pdf

George, Alexander L., and Richard Smoke. Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and
Practice. New York: Columbia University Press, 1974.

Gerson, Michael S. “The Future of U.S. Nuclear Policy: The Case for No First Use.” Quarterly
Journal: International Security (February 2011): 1-5.

Glaser, Charles. “Realism.” In Contemporary Security Studies, 3rd Edition. Edited by Alan
Collins, 13-27. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Godfrey, Elaine. “The Psychiatrist Telling Congress Trump Could Be Involuntarily Committed.”
The Atlantic, January 12, 2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/
bandy-lee/550193/.

Griffin, Andrew. “Officials put Trump’s name in ‘as many memo paragraphs as we can because
he keeps reading if he’s mentioned.’” The Independent, May 17, 2018. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-intelligence-reports-white-house-read-them-mentioned-name-president-a7740726.html.

“Groupthink.” Psychology Today. Last modified 2018. Accessed May 1, 2018.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/groupthink.

Haltiwanger, John. “Do Americans Want War with North Korea? Majority of U.S Public is
Against Military Interventions, Poll Says.” Newsweek, January 9, 2018. http://www.newsweek.com/war-north-korea-military-interventions-poll-775636.

Hannity, Sean. “Trump: America has to be ‘less predictable,’ Obama an ‘unbelievable divider,’”
Fox News, November 3, 2015. http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2015/11/03/trump-america-has-to-be-less-predictable-obama-unbelievable-divider.html.

Hart, Paul’t. “Irving L. Janis’ Victims of Groupthink.” Political Psychology 12, no. 2 (June
1991): 247-278. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3791464.

Helsel, Phil, Jonathan Allen, and Dennis Romero. “Trump cheered at Michigan rally, roasted in
absence at correspondents’ dinner.” NBC News, April 29, 2018. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-bashes-media-claims-credit-korea-talks-michigan-rally-n869836.

Henderson, Gregory. “Korea.” In Divided Nations in a Divided World, edited by Gregory
Henderson, Richard Ned Lebow, and John G. Stoessinger, 42-96. New York: David McKay Co., 1974.

Holland, Steve and Lesley Wroughton. “Differences on North Korea key to Trump’s Tillerson
decision: sources.” Reuters, March 15, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tillerson/differences-on-north-korea-key-to-trumps-tillerson-decision-sources-idUSKCN1GQ3CD.

“HR McMaster: Why did Trump dump national security adviser?” BBC News, March 22, 2018.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39033934.

Immelman, Aubrey. “The Leadership Style of U.S. President Donald J. Trump.” St. John’s
University and the College of St. Benedict, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, January 2017. Accessed April 29, 2018. https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/
psychology_pubs/107/.

Immelman, Aubrey. “The Personality Profile of Kim Jong-un,” St. John’s University and the
College of St. Benedict, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics. April 26, 2018. Accessed May 1, 2018. http://personality-politics.org/the-personality-profile-of-north-korean-supreme-leader-kim-jong-un.

“Incapacitation [Sentencing] Law and Legal Definition.” USLegal.com. Last modified 2016.
Accessed March 23, 2018. https://definitions.uslegal.com/i/incapacitation-sentencing/.

International Institutions and Global Governance Program. “The Global Nuclear
Nonproliferation Regime.” Council on Foreign Relations, May 21, 2012. Accessed May 20, 2018. https://www.cfr.org/report/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime.

“Iraq study estimates war-related deaths at 461,000.” BBC, October 18, 2013.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24547256.

Jervis, Robert. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1976.

Ji, Yewon. “Three Paradigms of North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions.” Journal of Political Inquiry
2 (2009): 1-14.

Jones, Jeffrey M. “Support for Iraq Military Action Low in Historical Context.” Gallup, June 25,
2014. Accessed April 29, 2018. http://news.gallup.com/poll/171968/support-iraq-military-action-low-historical-context.aspx.

Jost, John T. “Resistance to Change: A Social Psychological Perspective.” Social Research 82,
no. 3 (Fall 2015): 607-636.

Kaempfer, William H., and Anton D. Lowenberg. “The Theory of International Economic
Sanctions: A Public Choice Approach.” The American Economic Review 78, no. 4 (September 1988): 786-793.

Kahl, Colin and John Wolfsthal. “John Bolton Is a National Security Threat.” Foreign Policy,
March 23, 2018. http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/23/john-bolton-is-a-national-security-threat/.

Kahlilzad, Zalmay. “Trump Has Unveiled a Strong National Security Strategy.” National
Interest, December 26, 2017. Accessed April 26, 2018. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-has-unveiled-strong-national-security-strategy-23807.

Kaiman, Jonathan. “North Korea threatens to turn U.S. mainland into a ‘theater of nuclear war.’”
Los Angeles Times, August 9, 2017. Accessed April 13, 2018. http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-north-korea-threatens-to-turn-u-s-1502294652-htmlstory.html

“KAPPC Spokesman on DPRK Stand toward UNSC ‘Sanctions Resolution.’” KCNA, September
12, 2017. Accessed May 10, 2018. https://kcnawatch.co/newstream/1505345461-35556086/kappc-spokesman-on-dprk-stand-toward-unsc-sanctions-resolution/.

Karimi, Faith and James Griffiths. “North Korea calls latest UN sanctions ‘an act of war.’” CNN
Politics, December 25, 2017. Accessed April 13, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/24/politics/north-korea-un-resolution-response/index.html.

Katz, Josh. “Who Will Be President.” New York Times, November 8, 2016.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html.

Kessler, Glenn, Salvador Rizzo, and Meg Kelly. “President Trump has made 3,001 false or
misleading claims so far.” Washington Post, May 1, 2018. Accessed May 1, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/05/01/president-trump-has-made-3001-false-or-misleading-claims-so-far/?utm_term=.d3d231127254.

Khan, Mujeeb R. Encyclopedia Britannica. “Coercion.” Accessed March 23, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/coercion.

Kim, Christine and Jane Chung. “North Korea 2016 economic growth at 17-year high despite
sanctions: South Korea.” Reuters, July 21, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-economy-gdp/north-korea-2016-economic-growth-at-17-year-high-despite-sanctions-south-korea-idUSKBN1A607Z.

Kim, Jack. “Trump agrees to sell South Korea arms worth billions of dollars as treat from North
grows.” The Independent, September 2, 2017. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/america-agrees-sale-arms-military-billions-dollars-south-korea-seoul-donald-trump-president-moon-jae-a7925591.html.

Kirgis. Frederic L. “International Agreements and U.S. Law.” American Society of International
Law Insights 2, no. 5 (May 27, 1997). https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/2/issue/
5/international-agreements-and-us-law.

Kong, Kanga. “U.S.-South Korea Military Drills to Test Kim’s Desire for Talks.” Bloomberg,
March 20, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2018-03-20/u-s-south-korea-military-drills-to-start-april-1-pentagon-says.

Kozhanov, Nikolay A. “U.S. Economic Sanctions against Iran: Undermined by External
Factors,” Middle East Policy Council 18, no. 3 (Fall 2011): 144-160.

Krieger, David. “Ten Serious Flaws in Nuclear Deterrence Theory.” Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, February 7, 2011. https://www.wagingpeace.org/ten-serious-flaws-in-nuclear-deterrence-theory/.

Kruse, Michael. “‘I Need Loyalty.’” Politico Magazine, March/April 2018. Accessed May 2,
2018. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/06/donald-trump-loyalty-staff-2 17227.

Kuo, Mercy A. “Kim Jong-un’s Political Psychology Profile: Insights from Ken Dekleva.” The
Diplomat, October 17, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/kim-jong-uns-political-psychology-profile/.

Lacy, Dean, and Emerson M.S. Niou. “A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage: The
Roles of Preferences, Information, and Threats.” The Journal of Politics 66, no. 1 (February 2004): 25-42.

Lake, Eli. “Washington Loves McMaster, but Trump Doesn’t.” Bloomberg, May 8, 2017.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-08/washington-loves-general-mcmaster-but-trump-doesn-t.

Lamrani, Omar. “Against North Korea, Deterrence Of A Different Kind.” Forbes Magazine,
October 5, 2017. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2017/10/05/against-north-korea-deterrence-of-a-different-kind/#1dbb95f84f43.

Landler, Mark. “The Trump-Kim Summit Was Unprecedented, but the Statement Was Vague.”
New York Times, June 12, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/north-korea-summit.html.

Landler, Mark. “Trump Backs Away From Demand for Immediate North Korean
Denuclearization.” New York Times, May 22, 2018. https://nyti.ms/2LlI1Bc

Lanouette, William. “Civilian Control of Nuclear Weapons.” Arms Control Today, May 8, 2009.
Accessed April 29, 2018. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/Lanouette.

“Letter to UN Secretary-General.” KCNA, November 16, 2017.

Liptak, Kevin. “Trump ramps up pressure to get North Korea summit on track.” CNN Politics,
May 28, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/28/politics/north-korea-trump-summit/index.html.

Liptak, Kevin, and Joshua Berlinger. “Trump misrepresents North Korea nuclear agreement.”
CNN Politics, June 22, 2018. Accessed June 23, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/21/politics/trump-north-korea-nuclear-agreement/index.html.

Majumdar, Dave. “Trump Unveils His New National Security Strategy.” National Interest,
December 18, 2017. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-unveils-his-new-national-security-strategy-23703.

Maxwell, David. “What to Make of North Korea.” The Diplomat, April 11, 2013.
https://thediplomat.com/2013/04/what-to-make-of-north-korea/.

McAdams, Dan P. “The Mind of Donald Trump.” The Atlantic, June 2016. Accessed April 28,
2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-t rump/480771/.

McDevitt, Michael. “Deterring North Korean Provocations.” Brookings Institute, February
7, 2011. https://www.brookings.edu/research/deterring-north-korean-provocations/.

McMaster, H.R., and Gary D. Cohn. “America First Doesn’t Mean America Alone.” The Wall
Street Journal, May 30, 2017. https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-doesnt-mean-america-alone-1496187426.

Mearsheimer, John J. “Structural Realism.” In International Relations Theories: Discipline and
Diversity. Edited by Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve Smith, 71-88. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.

Miller, S.A. “Trump praises Kim Jong-un: ‘Very open and very honorable.’” Washington Times,
April 24, 2018. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018 /apr/24/trump-praises-kim-jong-un-very-open-very-honorable/.

Mitchell, A. Wess. “The Case for Deterrence by Denial.” American Interest, August 12,
2015. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/08/12/the-case-for-deterrence-by-denial/.

Morello, Carol. “IAEA confirms Iran is meeting its commitments under nuclear agreement.”
Washington Post, November 13, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-confirms-iran-is-meeting-its-commitments-under-nuclear-deal/2017/11/13/8d9b9fb0-c893-11e7-b0cf-7689a9f2d84e_story.html.

Morgan, Patrick M. Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, Inc.,
1977.

Morgan, Patrick M. “Deterrence and System Management: The Case of North Korea.” Conflict
Management and Peace Science 23, no 2 (2006): 121-138.

Mulgan, Aurelia George. “Time to Consider ‘Active Deterrence’ of North Korea.” The
Diplomat, September 05, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/time-to-consider-active-deterrence-of-north-korea/.

Mundy, Timothy S. “Casualty Aversion: Dispelling the Myth.” Monograph, School of Advanced
Military Studies, United States Army Command and General Staff College, 1999.

The National Committee on North Korea. A History of U.S.-DPRK Relations. By Daniel Wertz
and Chelsea Gannon. November 2015.

The National Committee on North Korea. Issue Brief: DPRK Diplomatic Relations. By Daniel
Wertz, JJ Oh, and Kim Insung. August 2016.

NCC Staff. “Executive Orders 101: What are they and how do Presidents use them?” National
Constitution Center, January 23, 2017. Accessed April 28, 2018. https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/executive-orders-101-what-are-they-and-how-do-presidents-use-them/.

Neuman, Scott. “U.S., South Korea Begin Massive Military Exercises.” National Public Radio,
December 4, 2017. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/04/568263780/u-s-south-korea-begin-massive-military-exercises.

Nilsson-Wright, John. “North Korea’s Tight Line Between Deterrence and Escalation.” Chatham
House, November 30, 2017. https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/north-koreas-tight-line-between-deterrence-and-escalation.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “A Political and Military Alliance.” Accessed May 21,
2018. https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html#basic

North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The North Atlantic Treaty. April 4, 1949. Washington, D.C.

“North Korea nuclear tests: What did they achieve?” BBC News, September 3, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706.

“North Korea says new missile puts all of US in striking range.” BBC News, November 29, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42162462.

“North Korea’s nuclear programme: How advanced is it?” BBC News, August 10, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699.

Nye, Joseph S., Jr. The Future of Power. New York, NY: PublicAffairs, 2011.

Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Matters. “Chapter 1: Nuclear
Deterrence – U.S. Policy and Strategy.” In Nuclear Matters Handbook 2016.

Oxford Dictionary. “Credibility.” Accessed March 29, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/credibility.

Oxford Dictionary. “Legitimacy.” Accessed May 10, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/legitimacy.

Oxford Dictionary. “Overmatch.” Accessed April 26, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/overmatch.

Oxford Dictionary. “Political will.” Accessed April 26, 2018. https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/
definition/political_will

Oxford Dictionary of Phrase and Fable. “Fog of war.” Encyclopedia.com. Accessed May 3,
2018. https://www.encyclopedia.com/humanities/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/fog-war.

Parker, Clifton B. “Why nuclear deterrence can work on North Korea.” Center for International
Security and Cooperation, November 14, 2017. https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/why-nuclear-deterrence-can-work-north-korea.

Pence, Mike. “Statements from Vice President Mike Pence on North Korea.” The White House,
March 9, 2018. Accessed March 24 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-vice-president-mike-pence-north-korea-2/.

Philps, Alan. “The Obama doctrine.” Chatham House (April & May 2016). Accessed
November 1, 2017. https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/obama-doctrine.

Pifer, Steven, Richard C. Bush, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Martin S. Indyk, Michael O’Hanlon,
Kenneth M. Pollack. “U.S. Nuclear and Extended Deterrence: Considerations and Challenges.” Brookings Institute 3 (May 2010). https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_nuclear_deterrence.pdf.

Press, Daryl G. Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats. Ithaca: Cornell
University Press, 2005.

Ratcliffe, Rebecca. “North Korea tops list of world’s most neglected humanitarian crises.” The
Guardian, January 23, 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/jan/23/north-korea-tops-list-most-neglected-humanitarian-crises.

Reuters Staff. “North Korea threatens to ‘counter’ U.S. over military drills.” Reuters, March 3,
2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-threatens-to-counter-u-s-over-military-drills-idUSKCN1GF0CT

Revere, Evans J.R., “Dealing with a nuclear-armed North Korea.” Brookings Institute,
October 4, 2016. https://www.brookings.edu/research/dealing-with-a-nuclear-armed-north-korea/

Revere, Evans J.R. “The Trump administration’s North Korea policy: Headed for success or
failure?” Brookings Institute, July 10, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/07/10/the-trump-administrations-north-korea-policy-headed-for-success-or-failure/.

“Rodong Sinmun Dismisses U.S.-S. Korea Military Nexus Aggressive.” KCNA, November 16,
2017.

Rosett, Claudia. “Our Nagging North Korea Problem,” The Journal of International Security
Affairs no. 27 (Fall/Winter 2014): 47-54.

“S. Korean Expedition Stages Anti-Trump, Anti-U.S. Demo in UK.” Rodong Sinmun, November
14, 2017.

Sagan, Scott D. “The Korean Missile Crisis: Why Deterrence Is Still the Best Option.” Foreign
Affairs, September 10, 2017. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2017-09-10/korean-missile-crisis.

Sang-Hun, Choe. “North and South Korea Set Bold Goals: A Final Peace and No Nuclear
Arms.” New York Times, April 27, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/
world/asia/north-korea-south-kim-jong-un.html.

Sang-Hun, Choe. “South Korea Plans ‘Decapitation Unit’ to Try to Scare North’s Leaders.” New
York Times, September 12, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/world/asia/north-south-korea-decapitation-.html?mtrref=www.google.com.tw.

Schallhorn, Kaitlyn. “Trump on North Korea, from ‘Rocket Man’ to ‘fire and fury.’” Fox News,
April 18, 2018. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/04/18/trump-on-north-korea-from-rocket-man-to-fire-and-fury.html.

Schelling, Thomas C. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966.

Sengupta, Somini. “After U.S. Compromise, Security Council Strengthens North Korea
Sanctions.” New York Times, September 11, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/
2017/09/11/world/asia/us-security-council-north-korea.html?mcubz=1.

Shabad, Rebecca. “Mike Pompeo promises to be a ‘talent hawk’ for the State Department.” NBC
News, April 12, 2018. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pompeo-address-criticism-he-s-too-hawkish-secretary-state-n865271.

Shaw, Malcolm. Encyclopedia Britannica. “International law.” Accessed May 23, 2018. https://www.britannica.com/topic/international-law.

Sherman, Ryne A. “The Personality of Donald Trump.” Psychology Today, September 17, 2015.
Accessed May 10, 2018. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-situation-lab/201509/the-personality-donald-trump.

Shin, Hyonhee. “South Korea president says Trump deserves Nobel Peace Prize.” Reuters, April
30, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-trump/south-korea-president-says-trump-deserves-nobel-peace-prize-idUSKBN1I10OD.

Singh, Michael. “Trump Should Focus on Deterring North Korea.” Foreign Policy, October 17,
2017. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/17/trump-should-focus-on-deterring-north-korea/.

Smith, Caroline, and James M. Lindsay. “Rally ‘Round the Flag: Opinion in the United States
before and after the Iraq War.” Brookings Institute, June 1, 2003. Accessed May 10, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rally-round-the-flag-opinion-in-the-united-states-before-and-after-the-iraq-war/.

Smith, David. “Rex Tillerson’s firing leave US diplomacy in turmoil.” The Guardian, March 13,
2018. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/13/rex-tillerson-fired-latest-news-donald-trump.

“South Korea and White House on talks with North: full transcript.” The Guardian, March 9,
2018. Accessed March 24 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/09/south-korea-white-house-talks-north-full-transcript.

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. “Political Legitimacy.” Last modified April 24, 2017.
Accessed April 13, 2018. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/legitimacy/#DesNorConLeg.

Stelzenmuller, Constanze. “At last: The Trump Doctrine, revealed.” Brookings Institute,
June 5, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/06/05/at-last-the-trump-doctrine-revealed/.

Sword, Rosemary K.M. and Philip Zimbardo. “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump.”
Psychology Today, September 28, 2017. Accessed May 2, 2018. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-time-cure/201709/the-dangerous-case-donald-trump.

Tangeras, Thomas. “Democracy, Autocracy and the Likelihood of International Conflict.”
Research Institute of Industrial Economics. IFN Working Paper No. 751. 2008. Accessed April 13, 2018, http://www.ifn.se/wfiles/wp/wp571.pdf.

Tannenbaum, Melanie. “Decoding Trump-Mania: The Psychological Allure of Hating Political
Correctness, Part 1.” Scientific American, August 14, 2015. Accessed May 10, 2018. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/psysociety/decoding-trump-mania-the-psychological-allure-of-hating-political-correctness-part-1/.

Terry, Sue Mi. “North Korea’s Strategic Goals and Policy towards the United States and South Korea.” International Journal of Korean Studies 17, no. 2 (Fall 2013): 63-92.

Tobey, William. “Squaring the Nonproliferation Circle.” The Journal of International Security Affairs no. 26 (Spring/Summer 2014): 47-53.

Trump, Donald. “Executive Order 13765, Minimizing the Economic Burden of the Patient
Protection and Affordable Care Act Pending Repeal,” January 20, 2017. Executive Office of the President. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/24/2017-01799/minimizing-the-economic-burden-of-the-patient-protection-and-affordable-care-act-pending-repeal.

Trump, Donald. “Joint Statement of President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America
and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea at the Singapore Summit.” The White House, June 12, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kim-jong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/.

Trump, Donald. “Letter to Chairman Kim Jong Un.” The White House, May 24, 2018.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/letter-chairman-kim-jong-un/.

Trump, Donald. “President Donald J. Trump is Ending United States Participation in an
Unacceptable Iran Deal.” The White House, May 8, 2018. Accessed May 24, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-ending-united-states-participation-unacceptable-iran-deal/.

Trump, Donald. “Remarks by President Trump at the 2018 White House Easter Egg Roll.” The
White House, April 2, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-2018-white-house-easter-egg-roll/.

Trump, Donald. “Remarks by President Trump in Press Gaggle.” The White House, June 15,
2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-press-gaggle/.

Trump, Donald. “Transcript: Donald Trump on His Foreign Policy Views.” Interview by Maggie
Haberman and David E. Sanger. New York Times, March 26, 2016. Accessed May 18, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-transcript.html.

“Trump fires Rex Tillerson as secretary of state.” BBC News, March 13, 2018. Accessed May 3, 2018. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43388723.

“Trump to Suspend Military Exercises on Korean Peninsula.” New York Times, June 11, 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/world/asia/trump-kim-live-updates.html.

United Nations. General Assembly. Charter of the United Nations. June 26, 1945. http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/introductory-note/index.html.

United Nations. Secretariat. Assessment of Member States’ advances to the Working Capital
Fund for the biennium 2018-2019 and contributions to the United Nations regular budget for 2018. ST/ADM/SER.B/973. December 29, 2017. http://undocs.org/en/ST/ADM/
SER.B/973.

United States, and Donald Trump. An American Budget: Budget of the U.S. Government.
Washington, DC: Office of Management and Budget, 2018.

United States, and Donald Trump. National Security Strategy of the United States of America.
Washington, DC: The White House, 2017.

“U.S. Can Never Break Korean People’s Will: Swiss Bodies.” Rodong Sinmun, November 14,
2017. Accessed May 10, 2018. http://www.rodong.rep.kp/en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-11-14-0010.

U.S. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Full Committee Hearing Authority to
Order the Use of Nuclear Weapons. 115th Cong., November 14, 2017.

U.S. Congress. Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq,.108th Cong., 1st sess., July 7, 2004.

U.S. Department of Defense. “DoD 101: Overview of the Department of Defense.” Accessed
April 28, 2018. https://www.defense.gov/About/DoD-101/.

U.S. Department of Defense. Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea 2015: A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2015.

U.S. Department of Defense. Nuclear Posture Review Report. Washington, DC: Office of the
Secretary of Defense, 2018.

U.S. Department of Defense. Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United
States of America. Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2018.

U.S. Department of State. Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic
of Korea. October 1, 1953.

U.S. Department of State. “Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.” Bureau of International Security
and Nonproliferation. https://www.state.gov/t/isn/npt/.

U.S. Department of State. Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. U.S. Relations with North
Korea: Fact Sheet. October 18, 2016.

U.S. Government Accountability Office. Measures of Military Capability: A Discussion
Of Their Merits, Limitations, And Interrelationships. Washington, DC: US General Accounting Office, 1985.

“U.S. majority backs military action vs. North Korea: Gallup poll.” Reuters, September 15, 2017.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-poll/u-s-majority-backs-military-action-vs-north-korea-gallup-poll-idUSKCN1BQ1LP.

van Wyk, Jo-Ansie. “The International Politics of Nuclear Weapons: A Constructivist Analysis.”
Scientia Militaria, South African Journal of Military Studies 35, no.1 (2007): 23-45.

The White House. Our Government: The Executive Branch. Accessed April 28, 2018
https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/the-executive-branch/.

The White House. Our Government: The Legislative Branch. Accessed April 28, 2018.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/the-legislative-branch/.

Wendt, Alexander. Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 1999.

Wolf, Barry. “When the Weak Attack the Strong: Failures of Deterrence.” RAND Corporation,
1991. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/notes/2005/N3261.pdf.

Woolf, Amy F. “Defense Primer: Command and Control of Nuclear Forces.” Congressional
Research Service, December 1, 2016. Accessed April 29, 2018. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf.

“2018 Military Strength Ranking.” GlobalFirepower.com. Last modified 2018. Accessed March
26, 2018. https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp.		zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.017.2018.A06-