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題名 環境品質特徵需求函數及其內生性之研究
Addressing the Endogeneity Problem When Estimating the Demand for Climate and Air Quality作者 許庭瑜
Hsu, Ting-Yu貢獻者 蕭代基
Shaw, Dai-Gee
許庭瑜
Hsu, Ting-Yu關鍵詞 特徵價格法
內生性
氣候與空氣品質之價值日期 2017 上傳時間 18-Jul-2018 11:10:18 (UTC+8) 摘要 2015年的巴黎協議取代京都議定書，訂立更明確的氣候環境保護協議，顯現人們愈重視愈趨極端的氣侯與環境議題，本研究之目的為估計台灣地區氣候與空氣品質之需求函數，並推估其價值，供政府作為氣候變遷與環境保護政策之參考。本研究運用民國97年至100年之住宅需求動向調查資料，將房屋交易市場區隔為台北都會區、台中都會區、台南高雄都會區三大市場，應用特徵價格法理論，採用半對數模型進行最小平方法迴歸分析，計算各都會區環境品質之邊際隱含價格，並以兩階段最小平方法估計特徵需求函數及解決其內生性問題，進而推估台灣地區氣候與空氣品質之價值，並以三種特徵需求函數模型設定進行比較。 透過本研究實證結果可知，未處理內生性問題之特徵需求函數估計結果，大部份高估環境品質價值，因此應以調整後之特徵需求函數估計價值較為適當。此外，本研究發現，在第一階段估計中較不顯著之特徵變數，無法進行第二階段之估計，故本研究最後並未估計空氣品質之需求函數及價值。而在調整內生性問題的二模型中，將購屋者個人特徵變數納入之模型（2SLS-2），其估計結果皆低於僅納入環境特徵變數之模型（2SLS-1）。估計結果顯示，台灣家戶喜居於冬暖夏涼且空氣清新之地區，邊際價值之評估，當一月均溫上升攝氏0.1度時，每家戶均增加新台幣9,070元之效益，當七月均溫下降攝氏0.1度時，每家戶均增加新台幣7,474元之效益。而非邊際價值之評估，本研究以2075至2099之預估氣溫，估計下一世紀之環境品質價值，可知一月月均溫之上升，帶給民眾新台幣58,626元之效益，而七月月均溫之上升，帶給民眾新台幣146,654元之損失。綜上可知全球氣候變化更為嚴峻，全球平均氣溫逐漸上升，夏季愈來愈炎熱，使得七月月均溫下降帶來之效益較大。關鍵字：特徵價格法、內生性、氣候與空氣品質之價值
The Paris agreement, an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2015, replaced the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Because of that, more people concern about the extreme environmental issues. The purpose of this study is to estimate the demand for climate and air quality in Taiwan, evaluate their value, and provide the information for the government. We use the Taiwan Housing Demand Survey data from 2008 to 2011, and separate markets for the Taipei, Taichung, and Tainan-Kaohsiung. In this research, we use the semi-logarithmic model to estimate the hedonic price function, calculate the marginal implicit prices of each environment variable, and address the endogeneity problem via two stage least squares method and ordinary least squares method. In addition, we separately estimate the inverse demand functions of each environment variable by using their marginal implicit prices, and evaluate households’ benefits when the improvement of climate or air quality exists. Finally, we compared with the results, and find the better one. From the empirical results, we find that using two stage least squares method is more appropriate than the OLS estimates which underestimates the households’ benefits. The empirical results suggest that Taiwan households seem to prefer warmer winter, cooler summer, and better air quality. Evaluating the marginal value, every household will get NT$ 9,070 benefit on average from a 0.1 degree Celsius higher January temperature, NT$ 7,474 benefit on average from a 0.1 degree Celsius lower July temperature. And evaluating the non-marginal value, when the temperature becomes the estimated temperature of 2075 to 2099, every household will get NT$ 58,626 benefit on average from the change of Jan. temperature, NT$ 146,654 benefit on average from the change of July temperature. We also find that the benefit from lower July temperature is more than others, because of the rising earth’s surface temperature that make people worry about the effects of global warming.參考文獻 中文部分林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「台灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，住宅學報，(1)：21-45頁李春長，2012，「公共設施、環境品質與不動產景氣對住宅價格影響之研 究─兼論不動產景氣之調節效果」，住宅學報，21(1)：67-87頁內政部營建署，2008，97 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫內政部營建署，2009，98 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。內政部營建署，2010，99 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。內政部營建署，2011，100 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。行政院主計總處，2001，「100年家庭收支調查報告」，台北：主計總處。交通部中央氣象局，2014，「氣候監測報告」，交通部中央氣象局。行政院環境保護署，2014，「中華民國空氣品質監測報告」，行政院環境保護署。住商不動産企劃研究室，2010，「兩岸主要城市不動產投資價值評比」，住商不動産企劃研究室。李欣輯、楊惠萱、廖楷民、蕭代基，2010，「水災社會脆弱性指標之建立」，建築與規劃學報，10(3)：163-182頁。蔡明哲，2015，「台灣都會區氣候條件與空氣品質之價值評估－特徵價格法之應用」，國立臺北大學自然資源與環境管理研究所，碩士論文。陳宜慶，2016「工資、房價及氣候與空氣品質之價值」，國立政治大學經濟學研究所，碩士論文。蕭代基、鄭蕙燕、吳珮瑛、錢玉蘭、溫麗琪，2002，「環境保護之成本效益分析：理論、方法與應用」，俊傑書局。英文部分Aldy, J. 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Journal of Political Economy, 90, 1257-1278.Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic Prices and Implicit Market: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition, Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34-55.Schwartz, A. E., S. Susin, and I. Voicu. (2003). Has Falling Crime Driven New York City`s Real Estate Boom? Journal of Housing Research, 14(1), 101-136.Smith, V. K., and J. C. Huang. (1995). Can Markets Value Air Quality? A Meta-Analysis of Hedonic Property Value Models. Journal of Political Economy, 103, 209-227.Timmins, C. (2007). If You Can’t Take the Heat, Get Out of the Cerrado Recovering the Equilibrium Amenity Cost of Non-Marginal Climate Change in Brazil. Journal of Regional Science, 47(1), 125.Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. South-Western College Publishing.Zabel, J. E., and K. A. Kiel. (2000). Estimating the Demand for Air Quality in Four U.S. Cities. Land Economics, 74(2), 174-194. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
104258020資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104258020 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 蕭代基 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Shaw, Dai-Gee en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許庭瑜 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsu, Ting-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 許庭瑜 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hsu, Ting-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2017 en_US dc.date.accessioned 18-Jul-2018 11:10:18 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 18-Jul-2018 11:10:18 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Jul-2018 11:10:18 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104258020 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118741 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 104258020 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2015年的巴黎協議取代京都議定書，訂立更明確的氣候環境保護協議，顯現人們愈重視愈趨極端的氣侯與環境議題，本研究之目的為估計台灣地區氣候與空氣品質之需求函數，並推估其價值，供政府作為氣候變遷與環境保護政策之參考。本研究運用民國97年至100年之住宅需求動向調查資料，將房屋交易市場區隔為台北都會區、台中都會區、台南高雄都會區三大市場，應用特徵價格法理論，採用半對數模型進行最小平方法迴歸分析，計算各都會區環境品質之邊際隱含價格，並以兩階段最小平方法估計特徵需求函數及解決其內生性問題，進而推估台灣地區氣候與空氣品質之價值，並以三種特徵需求函數模型設定進行比較。 透過本研究實證結果可知，未處理內生性問題之特徵需求函數估計結果，大部份高估環境品質價值，因此應以調整後之特徵需求函數估計價值較為適當。此外，本研究發現，在第一階段估計中較不顯著之特徵變數，無法進行第二階段之估計，故本研究最後並未估計空氣品質之需求函數及價值。而在調整內生性問題的二模型中，將購屋者個人特徵變數納入之模型（2SLS-2），其估計結果皆低於僅納入環境特徵變數之模型（2SLS-1）。估計結果顯示，台灣家戶喜居於冬暖夏涼且空氣清新之地區，邊際價值之評估，當一月均溫上升攝氏0.1度時，每家戶均增加新台幣9,070元之效益，當七月均溫下降攝氏0.1度時，每家戶均增加新台幣7,474元之效益。而非邊際價值之評估，本研究以2075至2099之預估氣溫，估計下一世紀之環境品質價值，可知一月月均溫之上升，帶給民眾新台幣58,626元之效益，而七月月均溫之上升，帶給民眾新台幣146,654元之損失。綜上可知全球氣候變化更為嚴峻，全球平均氣溫逐漸上升，夏季愈來愈炎熱，使得七月月均溫下降帶來之效益較大。關鍵字：特徵價格法、內生性、氣候與空氣品質之價值 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The Paris agreement, an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2015, replaced the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Because of that, more people concern about the extreme environmental issues. The purpose of this study is to estimate the demand for climate and air quality in Taiwan, evaluate their value, and provide the information for the government. We use the Taiwan Housing Demand Survey data from 2008 to 2011, and separate markets for the Taipei, Taichung, and Tainan-Kaohsiung. In this research, we use the semi-logarithmic model to estimate the hedonic price function, calculate the marginal implicit prices of each environment variable, and address the endogeneity problem via two stage least squares method and ordinary least squares method. In addition, we separately estimate the inverse demand functions of each environment variable by using their marginal implicit prices, and evaluate households’ benefits when the improvement of climate or air quality exists. Finally, we compared with the results, and find the better one. From the empirical results, we find that using two stage least squares method is more appropriate than the OLS estimates which underestimates the households’ benefits. The empirical results suggest that Taiwan households seem to prefer warmer winter, cooler summer, and better air quality. Evaluating the marginal value, every household will get NT$ 9,070 benefit on average from a 0.1 degree Celsius higher January temperature, NT$ 7,474 benefit on average from a 0.1 degree Celsius lower July temperature. And evaluating the non-marginal value, when the temperature becomes the estimated temperature of 2075 to 2099, every household will get NT$ 58,626 benefit on average from the change of Jan. temperature, NT$ 146,654 benefit on average from the change of July temperature. We also find that the benefit from lower July temperature is more than others, because of the rising earth’s surface temperature that make people worry about the effects of global warming. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究對象、方法與範圍 3第三節 研究流程 4第二章 文獻回顧 5第一節 環境品質價值估計方法 5第二節 特徵價格法內生性問題 9第三章 理論架構 11第一節 特徵價值評估之理論基礎 11第二節 特徵價格法第一階段估計 18第三節 特徵價格法第二階段估計 21第四章 資料與變數說明 24第一節 資料說明 24第二節 資料處理 26第三節 變數說明 28第四節 變數基本敘述統計 34第五章 實證模型分析 36第一節 模型設定 36第二節 第一階段估計：特徵價格函數 40第三節 第二階段估計：特徵需求函數 45第四節 氣候與空氣品質之價值評估 56第六章 結論與建議 61第一節 結論 61第二節 問題與建議 63參考文獻 65中文部分 65英文部分 67 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1317237 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104258020 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 特徵價格法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 內生性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 氣候與空氣品質之價值 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 環境品質特徵需求函數及其內生性之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Addressing the Endogeneity Problem When Estimating the Demand for Climate and Air Quality en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「台灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，住宅學報，(1)：21-45頁李春長，2012，「公共設施、環境品質與不動產景氣對住宅價格影響之研 究─兼論不動產景氣之調節效果」，住宅學報，21(1)：67-87頁內政部營建署，2008，97 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫內政部營建署，2009，98 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。內政部營建署，2010，99 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。內政部營建署，2011，100 年住宅需求動向調查（AB170004）【原始數據】。取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。行政院主計總處，2001，「100年家庭收支調查報告」，台北：主計總處。交通部中央氣象局，2014，「氣候監測報告」，交通部中央氣象局。行政院環境保護署，2014，「中華民國空氣品質監測報告」，行政院環境保護署。住商不動産企劃研究室，2010，「兩岸主要城市不動產投資價值評比」，住商不動産企劃研究室。李欣輯、楊惠萱、廖楷民、蕭代基，2010，「水災社會脆弱性指標之建立」，建築與規劃學報，10(3)：163-182頁。蔡明哲，2015，「台灣都會區氣候條件與空氣品質之價值評估－特徵價格法之應用」，國立臺北大學自然資源與環境管理研究所，碩士論文。陳宜慶，2016「工資、房價及氣候與空氣品質之價值」，國立政治大學經濟學研究所，碩士論文。蕭代基、鄭蕙燕、吳珮瑛、錢玉蘭、溫麗琪，2002，「環境保護之成本效益分析：理論、方法與應用」，俊傑書局。英文部分Aldy, J. 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