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題名 臺北市房地產預期增值為何高漲? －以租金乘數探討投資價值與消費價值的差異
Why is Taipei housing expected appreciation rising fast? -Using price rent ratio to discuss the differences between consumption value and investment value作者 楊博宇 貢獻者 張金鶚<br>江穎慧
楊博宇關鍵詞 租金
房價
租金乘數
特徵價格
分量迴歸
Housing rent
Housing price
Gross rent multiplier
Hedonic price theory
Quantile regression日期 2018 上傳時間 27-Jul-2018 12:32:05 (UTC+8) 摘要 住宅具有消費與投資雙重屬性，租屋滿足消費需求，購屋同時有消費與投資需求。近年來臺北地區房價大幅上漲，租金卻未見明顯增加，租金乘數(房價/租金)上升表示投資價值增加大於消費價值，預期增值則是其中主因。臺北市住宅租金乘數較國外高，隱含臺北市住宅更偏向投資產品。本研究計算每筆房屋的租金乘數，藉由計算房屋特徵、區位與時機對租金乘數之影響，探討臺北市住宅預期增值的變化。本研究採用 2013 年 1 月至 2016 年12 月期間591租屋網與不動產交易實價登錄之資料為研究對象。運用特徵價格法建立租金估值模型，再計算實際買賣案例之可能成交租金以此得出租金乘數，並以最小平方法與分量迴歸對租金乘數分析。本研究得出臺北市年租金乘數平均約為50，呈現偏高現象。市中心之年租金乘數與舊市區之差距為8，房市高峰與基期差距為4，面積越大租金乘數越高，顯示區位、時機與面積的投資需求支撐房價變化。高分位租金乘數在市中心與低分位之差距為6，市中心預期增值的期待使投資價值擴大，形成臺北市房價上漲而租金相對平穩的現象。實證結果釐清臺北市住宅投資商品化現象及其形成原因，以提供消費者投資風險指標，並使政策對投資性高風險產品之監控與管制提供正當性。
In recent years, housing prices in Taipei have been rising sharply without significant increase in rents. Gross rent multiplier (price/rent, i.e., GRM) is an important indicator of real estate market. Prices can be regarded as the sum of the consumption value and the investment value. In contrast, rents show only consumption value. Therefore, a rise in the gross rent multiplier means that buyers think the investment value is increasing. However, there are many factors that affect housing prices and rent, and cannot be analyzed using only average price or rent. To clarify the individual differences in housing, this paper measures the GRM for each house and calculates the impact of housing features, location and time on the gross rent multiplier to discuss the interaction between investment and consumption. This study uses housing sale and rental data in Taipei City from January 2013 to December 2016. The rental model is formed by using hedonic price theory to calculate the GRM. Then the GLS model and quantile regression is used to analyze the GRM. The result shows that location and time are the main contributors for the change of investment value. The GRM in Taipei city average about 50. They are higher for large properties located in downtown and bought at market’s peak. The highest quantile result indicates that the GRM in downtown area are higher than others quantile, thus the capital gain in downtown makes investment value increase. The empirical result can clarify the phenomenon in Taipei City, and contributes to future policy making.參考文獻 行政院，2011，「99年人口及住宅普查初步統計結果提要分析」，行政院統計通報。臺北市：行政院主計處。江穎慧，2009，「不動產自動估價與估價師個別估價之比較-以比較法之案例選取, 權重調整與估值三階段差異分析」，『住宅學報』，18(1)：39-62。李如君，1997，「臺北地區住宅租金水準之研究」，國立政治大學地政系碩士論文：台北。林祖嘉，1989，「美國房租與房價關係之實證研究」，『政大學報』，60：137-153。林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「臺灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，『住宅學報』，1：21-45。林祖嘉、馬毓駿，2007，「特徵方程式大量估價法在臺灣不動產市場之應用」，『住宅學報』，16(2)：1-22。林秋瑾，1996，「穩健性住宅租金模式之探討---異常點之分析」，『住宅學報』，4：51-72。陳柏如，2015，「臺灣房價與貸款成數，房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗」，『經濟研究』，51(2)：225-256。陳奉瑤、楊依蓁，2007，「個別估價與大量估價之準確性分析」，『住宅學報』，16(2)：67-84。梁仁旭，2015，「資本化率屋齡效果之比較分析」，『臺灣土地研究』，18(1)： 83-113。張怡文、江穎慧、張金鶚，2009，「分量迴歸在大量估價模型之應用－非典型住宅估價之改進」，『都市與計劃』，36(3)：281-304。黃名義、張金鶚，2001，「辦公室、住宅與住辦混合租金之比較分析－面積，區位與產品異質性之影響」，『都市與計劃』，28(3)：303-321。黃怡潔、江穎慧、張金鶚，2017，「臺北市公共住宅對周圍住宅價格之影響」，『都市與計劃』，44(3)：277-302。彭建文、花敬群，2001，「住宅租買選擇行為之探討-住宅服務品質差異之影響」，『臺灣土地金融季刊』，38(4)：89-107。曾建穎、張金鶚、花敬群，2005，「不同空間、時間住宅租金與房價關聯性之研究-臺北地區之實證現象分析」，『住宅學報』，14(2)：27-49。楊宗憲、蘇倖慧，2011，「迎毗設施與鄰避設施對住宅價格影響之研究」，『住宅學報』，20(2)，61-80。龔永香、江穎慧、張金鶚，2007，「客觀標準化不動產估價之可行性分析─ 市場比較法應用於大量估價『住宅學報』，16(2)：23-42。Bracke, P. (2015). House prices and rents: microevidence from a matched data set in Central London. Real Estate Economics, 43(2), 403-431.Campbell, S. D., Davis, M. A., Gallin, J., and Martin, R. F. (2009). What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio. Journal of Urban Economics, 66(2), 90-102.DiPasquale, D., and Wheaton, W. C., 1992, “ The markets for real estate assets and space: a conceptual framework”, Real Estate Economics, 20(2): 181-198.Gallin, J., 2008, “The long‐run relationship between house prices and rents”, Real Estate Economics, 36(4): 635-658.Himmelberg, C., Mayer, C., and Sinai, T., 2005, “Assessing high house prices: Bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4): 67-92.Hwang, M., Quigley, J. M., and Son, J. Y., 2006, “The dividend pricing model: New evidence from the Korean housing market”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 32(3): 205-228.Koenker, R., and Bassett Jr, G., 1978, “Regression quantiles”, Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50.Koenker, R., and Bassett Jr, G., 1982, “Robust tests for heteroscedasticity based on regression quantiles”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 43-61.Lancaster, K. J., 1966, “A new approach to consumer theory” , Journal of political economy, 74(2): 132-157.Lin, Y., Chang, C., and Chen, C., 2014 “Why homebuyers have a high housing affordability problem: Quantile regression analysis”, Habitat International, 43: 41-47Mills, E. S., and Hamilton, B. W., 1972, Urban Economics, Harper Collins CollegePoterba, J. M., 1984, “Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing: an asset-market approach”, The quarterly journal of economics, 99(4): 729-752.Hill, R. J., and Syed, I. A., 2016, “Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market”, Regional Science and Urban Economics,56: 60-72.Rosen, S., 1974, “Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition” Journal of political economy, 82(1): 34-55.Xiao, Y., 2012, Urban Morphology and Housing Market, Doctoral dissertation, University of Cardiff , London. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
105257020資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105257020 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚<br>江穎慧 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊博宇 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 楊博宇 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2018 en_US dc.date.accessioned 27-Jul-2018 12:32:05 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 27-Jul-2018 12:32:05 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 27-Jul-2018 12:32:05 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105257020 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118976 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 105257020 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 住宅具有消費與投資雙重屬性，租屋滿足消費需求，購屋同時有消費與投資需求。近年來臺北地區房價大幅上漲，租金卻未見明顯增加，租金乘數(房價/租金)上升表示投資價值增加大於消費價值，預期增值則是其中主因。臺北市住宅租金乘數較國外高，隱含臺北市住宅更偏向投資產品。本研究計算每筆房屋的租金乘數，藉由計算房屋特徵、區位與時機對租金乘數之影響，探討臺北市住宅預期增值的變化。本研究採用 2013 年 1 月至 2016 年12 月期間591租屋網與不動產交易實價登錄之資料為研究對象。運用特徵價格法建立租金估值模型，再計算實際買賣案例之可能成交租金以此得出租金乘數，並以最小平方法與分量迴歸對租金乘數分析。本研究得出臺北市年租金乘數平均約為50，呈現偏高現象。市中心之年租金乘數與舊市區之差距為8，房市高峰與基期差距為4，面積越大租金乘數越高，顯示區位、時機與面積的投資需求支撐房價變化。高分位租金乘數在市中心與低分位之差距為6，市中心預期增值的期待使投資價值擴大，形成臺北市房價上漲而租金相對平穩的現象。實證結果釐清臺北市住宅投資商品化現象及其形成原因，以提供消費者投資風險指標，並使政策對投資性高風險產品之監控與管制提供正當性。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In recent years, housing prices in Taipei have been rising sharply without significant increase in rents. Gross rent multiplier (price/rent, i.e., GRM) is an important indicator of real estate market. Prices can be regarded as the sum of the consumption value and the investment value. In contrast, rents show only consumption value. Therefore, a rise in the gross rent multiplier means that buyers think the investment value is increasing. However, there are many factors that affect housing prices and rent, and cannot be analyzed using only average price or rent. To clarify the individual differences in housing, this paper measures the GRM for each house and calculates the impact of housing features, location and time on the gross rent multiplier to discuss the interaction between investment and consumption. This study uses housing sale and rental data in Taipei City from January 2013 to December 2016. The rental model is formed by using hedonic price theory to calculate the GRM. Then the GLS model and quantile regression is used to analyze the GRM. The result shows that location and time are the main contributors for the change of investment value. The GRM in Taipei city average about 50. They are higher for large properties located in downtown and bought at market’s peak. The highest quantile result indicates that the GRM in downtown area are higher than others quantile, thus the capital gain in downtown makes investment value increase. The empirical result can clarify the phenomenon in Taipei City, and contributes to future policy making. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究內容與方法 5第三節 研究架構與流程 7第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 9第一節 租金與房價關係 9第二節 國內外相關討論 12第三節 特徵價格相關理論 15第三章 資料說明與研究設計 16第一節 資料說明與處理 16第二節 資料敘述統計 19第三節 研究設計 22第四節 實證模型設定 23第四章 實證結果 30第一節 租金估計模型 30第二節 租金乘數計算 33第三節 租金乘數線性迴歸與分量迴歸 37第五章 結論與建議 42第一節 結論 42第二節 建議 44參考文獻 45 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1638789 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105257020 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 租金 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 租金乘數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 特徵價格 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分量迴歸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing rent en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Gross rent multiplier en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hedonic price theory en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Quantile regression en_US dc.title (題名) 臺北市房地產預期增值為何高漲? －以租金乘數探討投資價值與消費價值的差異 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Why is Taipei housing expected appreciation rising fast? -Using price rent ratio to discuss the differences between consumption value and investment value en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 行政院，2011，「99年人口及住宅普查初步統計結果提要分析」，行政院統計通報。臺北市：行政院主計處。江穎慧，2009，「不動產自動估價與估價師個別估價之比較-以比較法之案例選取, 權重調整與估值三階段差異分析」，『住宅學報』，18(1)：39-62。李如君，1997，「臺北地區住宅租金水準之研究」，國立政治大學地政系碩士論文：台北。林祖嘉，1989，「美國房租與房價關係之實證研究」，『政大學報』，60：137-153。林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「臺灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，『住宅學報』，1：21-45。林祖嘉、馬毓駿，2007，「特徵方程式大量估價法在臺灣不動產市場之應用」，『住宅學報』，16(2)：1-22。林秋瑾，1996，「穩健性住宅租金模式之探討---異常點之分析」，『住宅學報』，4：51-72。陳柏如，2015，「臺灣房價與貸款成數，房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗」，『經濟研究』，51(2)：225-256。陳奉瑤、楊依蓁，2007，「個別估價與大量估價之準確性分析」，『住宅學報』，16(2)：67-84。梁仁旭，2015，「資本化率屋齡效果之比較分析」，『臺灣土地研究』，18(1)： 83-113。張怡文、江穎慧、張金鶚，2009，「分量迴歸在大量估價模型之應用－非典型住宅估價之改進」，『都市與計劃』，36(3)：281-304。黃名義、張金鶚，2001，「辦公室、住宅與住辦混合租金之比較分析－面積，區位與產品異質性之影響」，『都市與計劃』，28(3)：303-321。黃怡潔、江穎慧、張金鶚，2017，「臺北市公共住宅對周圍住宅價格之影響」，『都市與計劃』，44(3)：277-302。彭建文、花敬群，2001，「住宅租買選擇行為之探討-住宅服務品質差異之影響」，『臺灣土地金融季刊』，38(4)：89-107。曾建穎、張金鶚、花敬群，2005，「不同空間、時間住宅租金與房價關聯性之研究-臺北地區之實證現象分析」，『住宅學報』，14(2)：27-49。楊宗憲、蘇倖慧，2011，「迎毗設施與鄰避設施對住宅價格影響之研究」，『住宅學報』，20(2)，61-80。龔永香、江穎慧、張金鶚，2007，「客觀標準化不動產估價之可行性分析─ 市場比較法應用於大量估價『住宅學報』，16(2)：23-42。Bracke, P. (2015). House prices and rents: microevidence from a matched data set in Central London. Real Estate Economics, 43(2), 403-431.Campbell, S. D., Davis, M. A., Gallin, J., and Martin, R. F. (2009). What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio. Journal of Urban Economics, 66(2), 90-102.DiPasquale, D., and Wheaton, W. C., 1992, “ The markets for real estate assets and space: a conceptual framework”, Real Estate Economics, 20(2): 181-198.Gallin, J., 2008, “The long‐run relationship between house prices and rents”, Real Estate Economics, 36(4): 635-658.Himmelberg, C., Mayer, C., and Sinai, T., 2005, “Assessing high house prices: Bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4): 67-92.Hwang, M., Quigley, J. M., and Son, J. Y., 2006, “The dividend pricing model: New evidence from the Korean housing market”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 32(3): 205-228.Koenker, R., and Bassett Jr, G., 1978, “Regression quantiles”, Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50.Koenker, R., and Bassett Jr, G., 1982, “Robust tests for heteroscedasticity based on regression quantiles”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 43-61.Lancaster, K. J., 1966, “A new approach to consumer theory” , Journal of political economy, 74(2): 132-157.Lin, Y., Chang, C., and Chen, C., 2014 “Why homebuyers have a high housing affordability problem: Quantile regression analysis”, Habitat International, 43: 41-47Mills, E. S., and Hamilton, B. W., 1972, Urban Economics, Harper Collins CollegePoterba, J. M., 1984, “Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing: an asset-market approach”, The quarterly journal of economics, 99(4): 729-752.Hill, R. J., and Syed, I. A., 2016, “Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market”, Regional Science and Urban Economics,56: 60-72.Rosen, S., 1974, “Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition” Journal of political economy, 82(1): 34-55.Xiao, Y., 2012, Urban Morphology and Housing Market, Doctoral dissertation, University of Cardiff , London. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.LE.011.2018.A05 -
