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題名 土壤液化潛勢區公布對房價之影響
The Impact of Soil Liquefaction Information Disclosure on Housing Price作者 呂哲源
Lu, Zhe-Yuan貢獻者 張金鶚<br>江穎慧
Chang, Chin-Oh<br>Chiang, Ying-Hui
呂哲源
Lu, Zhe-Yuan關鍵詞 土壤液化
房價
差異中之差異法
傾向分數配對法
特徵價格法
Soil liquefaction
Housing price
Difference-in-differences
Propensity score matching日期 2018 上傳時間 27-Jul-2018 12:32:39 (UTC+8) 摘要 2016年2月6日的美濃大地震，使國人開始意識到土壤液化對於居住安全的威脅。其後，政府公布八個縣市的土壤液化潛勢區查詢系統，將土地劃分為高、中、低三等級潛勢區，提高民眾對土壤液化的風險意識及居住安全的重視。然此舉卻引發市場熱議，土壤液化與房價之間的關係出現兩種討論：部分認為查詢系統之公布將衝擊房屋市場，使潛勢區內之房價下跌、成交量萎縮；另一方則考量建築技術上可以克服以及資訊透明化後的資訊疲乏，認為土壤液化於房價的影響有限。過去國內外有不少文獻針對突發事件對於特定市場的衝擊進行評估，但很少針對土壤液化對於不動產市場做相關的研究。 本研究採用2015年3月至2017年2月之不動產實價登錄交易資料，及中央地質調查所土壤液化潛勢查詢系統之圖資進行實證分析。應用特徵價格理論和差異中之差異配對分析法（DID with Matching），研究臺北市潛勢地區內之房屋交易價格是否存在差異，以及比較公布前後的價格變化。實證結果顯示，政府揭露液化潛勢區的資訊，確實造成臺北市高潛勢區內之房屋價格下跌3.34%，中、低潛勢區內之房屋價格則無顯著影響，而此影響效果在公布半年後有淡化的現象。
In Taiwan, the public has become conscious of the soil liquefaction and its ensuing hazard since the eruption of Meinung earthquake on February 6, 2016. In the aftermath of this event, the government disclosed Soil Liquefaction Potential Inquiry System for eight counties. This survey categorized the severity of submersion into three different potential levels – high, medium and low. Such an announcement has raised the public`s perceived risk of soil liquefaction and their attention to the safety of living. In general, the discussion on the relationship between soil liquefaction and house prices are twofold. Some believe that the announcement of the inquiry system will severely impact the housing market. The house prices in the potential area are likely to fall, and the transaction volume will shrink significantly. However, taking the modern construction techniques and the symptoms of information fatigue into account, the others assume that there is only a limited influence on the housing market. Several previous empirical studies have assessed the impact of the hazard on specific markets but seldom did they focus on the relationship between soil liquefaction and housing prices. This study, therefore, aims at examining the effect of different potential levels of soil liquefaction on housing prices. The first section analyzes the price differences across distinctive levels of potential areas at one period of time. Meanwhile, the second section probes into the change in housing prices before and after the disclosure of Soil Liquefaction Inquiry System. In terms of research methodology, this study employs Hedonic Price Theory and Difference-in-Differences (DID) method with Matching. The transaction data of housing market is adapted from Actual Price Registration of Real Estate in Taipei City between March 2015 and February 2017. The statistical result shows that the disclosure of information on soil liquefaction potential has decreased house prices in the high-potential areas of Taipei by 3.34%; whereas, this effect became weaker half a year after the announcement. In the medium and low potential areas, there is no significant effect of the disclosure on housing prices.參考文獻 一、中文參考文獻 李世錡、陳彥仲，2002，「地震災害影響住宅市場之價格衝擊分析」，收錄於『2002年住宅學會年會論文集』，臺北：住宅學會。 李泳龍，2000，「集集地震災區公告土地現值調整作業之研究」，論文發表於〈2000年國土規劃論壇〉，國立成功大學都市計畫學系：臺南。 林元興、黃淑惠、蔡吉源，2006，「臺灣地區九二一地震對地價影響之研究」，『農業經濟半年刊』，80：1-22。 林美聆，1999，「九二一集集大地震全面勘災報告—大地工程」，臺北：國家地震工程研究中心。 林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「臺灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，『住宅學報』，1：21-45。 林祖嘉、馬毓駿，2007，「特徵方程式大量估價法在臺灣不動產市場之應用」，『 住宅學報』，16(2)：1-22。 張金鶚、范垂爐，1993，「房地產真實交易價格之研究」，『住宅學報』，1：75-97。 郭敏華，2007，「臺灣垃圾強制分類政策的成效實證分析」，政治大學財政研究所學位論文：臺北。 陳信宏，2014，「特種貨物及勞務稅條例(奢侈稅)實施對房價的影響－以新竹地區為例」，中央大學產業經濟研究所學位論文：桃園。 陳銘鴻，2002，「土壤液化成因、災害與復建」。論文發表於〈臺灣之活動斷層與地震災害研討會〉，經濟部中央地質調查所：臺中，民國九十一年九月十八日至十九日。 楊宗憲、蘇倖慧，2011，「迎毗設施與鄰避設施對住宅價格影響之研究」，『住宅學報』，20(2)：61-80。 楊重信，2008，「洪災防治之效益—以基隆河整治爲例」，『臺灣經濟預測與政策』，9(1)：33-67。 二、英文參考文獻 Alonso, W., 1964, Location and land use. Toward a general theory of land rent, Harvard University Press. Bernknopf, R. L., Brookshire, D. S., and Thayer, M. A., 1990, “Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 18(1): 35-49. Beron, K. J., Murdoch, J. C., Thayer, M. A., and Vijverberg, W. P., 1997, “An analysis of the housing market before and after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake”, Land Economics, 101-113. Brookshire, D. S., Thayer, M. A., Schulze, W. D., and d`Arge, R. C., 1982, “Valuing public goods: a comparison of survey and hedonic approaches”, The American Economic Review, 72(1): 165-177. Daniel, V. E., Florax, R. J., and Rietveld, P, 2009, “Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard”, Ecological Economics, 69(2): 355- 365. Dilley, M., 2005, Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis (Vol. 5), World Bank Publications. Donnelly, W. A., 1989. “Hedonic price analysis of the effect of a floodplain on property values”, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 25(3): 581-586. Eves, C., and Wilkinson, S., 2014, “Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour", Natural hazards, 71(3), 1519-1536. Graham J. Edward, Jr and William W. Hall, Jr, 2001, “Hurricanes, Housing Market Activity, and Coastal Real Estate Values”, The Appraisal Journal, 10: 379-387 Greenstone, M., and Gayer, T., 2009, “Quasi-experimental and experimental approaches to environmental economics”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 57(1): 21-44. Guo, S., and Fraser, M. W., 2010, Propensity score analysis: Statistical methods and analysis, SAGE Publishing Hallstrom, D. G., and Smith, V. K., 2005, “Market responses to hurricanes”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 50(3): 541-561. Halvorsen, R., and Palmquist, R., 1980, “The interpretation of dummy variables in semilogarithmic equations”, American economic review, 70(3): 474-75. Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H., and Todd, P. E., 1997, “Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator: Evidence from evaluating a job training programme”, The review of economic studies, 64(4): 605-654. Hidano, N., Hoshino, T., and Sugiura, A., 2015, “The effect of seismic hazard risk information on property prices: Evidence from a spatial regression discontinuity design”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 53: 113-122. Keskin, B., R. Dunning and C. Watkins, 2017, “Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach”, Journal of European Real Estate Research, 10(1): 73-90 Kiel, K. A., and McClain, K. T., 1995, “House prices during siting decision stages: the case of an incinerator from rumor through operation”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 28(2): 241-255. Kuminoff, N. V., Parmeter, C. F., and Pope, J. C., 2010, “Which hedonic models can we trust to recover the marginal willingness to pay for environmental amenities?”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 60(3): 145-160. Lancaster, K. J., 1966, “A new approach to consumer theory”, Journal of political economy, 74(2): 132-157. MacDonald, D. N., Murdoch, J. C., and White, H. L., 1987, “Uncertain hazards, insurance, and consumer choice: Evidence from housing markets”, Land Economics, 63(4): 361-371. Malpezzi, S., 2003, “Hedonic pricing models: a selective and applied review”, Housing economics and public policy, 67-89. McCluskey, J. J., and Rausser, G. C., 2001, “Estimation of perceived risk and its effect on property values”, Land Economics, 77(1): 42-55. Morgan, S. L., and Harding, D. J., 2006, “Matching estimators of causal effects: Prospects and pitfalls in theory and practice”, Sociological methods and research, 35(1): 3-60. Murdoch, J. C., Singh, H., and Thayer, M., 1993, “The impact of natural hazards on housing values: The Loma Prieta earthquake”, Real Estate Economics, 21(2): 167-184. Nakagawa, M., Saito, M., and Yamaga, H., 2007, “Earthquake risk and housing rents: evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 37(1): 87-99. Naoi, M., Seko, M., and Sumita, K., 2009, “Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39(6): 658-669. Pope, J. C., 2008, “Do seller disclosures affect property values? Buyer information and the hedonic model”, Land Economics, 84(4): 551-572. Ridker, R. G., and Henning, J. A., 1967, “The determinants of residential property values with special reference to air pollution”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 246-257. Rosen, S., 1974, “Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition”, Journal of political economy, 82(1): 34-55. Sirmans, S., Macpherson, D., and Zietz, E., 2005, “The composition of hedonic pricing models”, Journal of real estate literature, 13(1): 1-44. Söderberg, B., 2002, “A note on the hedonic model specification for income properties”, pp. 157-180 in Real Estate Valuation Theory, edited by Ko Wang, Wolverton and Marvin L., Boston: Springer. Tanaka, S., and Zabel, J., 2017, “Valuing nuclear energy risk: Evidence from the impact of the Fukushima crisis on US house prices”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 88: 411-426. Tobin, G.A. and Montz, B.E., 1988, “Catastrophic flooding and the response of the real estate market”, Social Science Journal. 25(2): 167-177. Wooldridge, J. M., 2012, Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, South Western College Publications, 5th ed. Zhang, L., 2016, “Flood hazards impact on neighborhood house prices: A spatial quantile regression analysis,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 60: 12-19. 三、網頁參考文獻 經濟部中央地質調查所，2016a，「土壤液化潛勢查詢系統」，中央地質調查所全球資訊網。https://www.moeacgs.gov.tw/2016.htm，取用時間：2016年9月10日。 經濟部中央地質調查所，2016b，「土壤液化問與答」，中央地質調查所全球資訊網。https://www.liquid.net.tw/CGSSL/QA.html，取用時間：2016年9月10日。 內政部營建署，2017，「土壤液化防治專區」，內政部營建署全球資訊網站。http://www.cpami.gov.tw，取用時間：2017年7月3日。 國家災害防救科技中心，2016，「災害潛勢地圖網站—斷層與土壤液化」，國家災害防救科技中心。https://dmap.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/，取用時間：2016年9月10日。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
105257025資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105257025 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚<br>江穎慧 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chang, Chin-Oh<br>Chiang, Ying-Hui en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 呂哲源 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lu, Zhe-Yuan en_US dc.creator (作者) 呂哲源 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lu, Zhe-Yuan en_US dc.date (日期) 2018 en_US dc.date.accessioned 27-Jul-2018 12:32:39 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 27-Jul-2018 12:32:39 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 27-Jul-2018 12:32:39 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105257025 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118977 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 105257025 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2016年2月6日的美濃大地震，使國人開始意識到土壤液化對於居住安全的威脅。其後，政府公布八個縣市的土壤液化潛勢區查詢系統，將土地劃分為高、中、低三等級潛勢區，提高民眾對土壤液化的風險意識及居住安全的重視。然此舉卻引發市場熱議，土壤液化與房價之間的關係出現兩種討論：部分認為查詢系統之公布將衝擊房屋市場，使潛勢區內之房價下跌、成交量萎縮；另一方則考量建築技術上可以克服以及資訊透明化後的資訊疲乏，認為土壤液化於房價的影響有限。過去國內外有不少文獻針對突發事件對於特定市場的衝擊進行評估，但很少針對土壤液化對於不動產市場做相關的研究。 本研究採用2015年3月至2017年2月之不動產實價登錄交易資料，及中央地質調查所土壤液化潛勢查詢系統之圖資進行實證分析。應用特徵價格理論和差異中之差異配對分析法（DID with Matching），研究臺北市潛勢地區內之房屋交易價格是否存在差異，以及比較公布前後的價格變化。實證結果顯示，政府揭露液化潛勢區的資訊，確實造成臺北市高潛勢區內之房屋價格下跌3.34%，中、低潛勢區內之房屋價格則無顯著影響，而此影響效果在公布半年後有淡化的現象。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In Taiwan, the public has become conscious of the soil liquefaction and its ensuing hazard since the eruption of Meinung earthquake on February 6, 2016. In the aftermath of this event, the government disclosed Soil Liquefaction Potential Inquiry System for eight counties. This survey categorized the severity of submersion into three different potential levels – high, medium and low. Such an announcement has raised the public`s perceived risk of soil liquefaction and their attention to the safety of living. In general, the discussion on the relationship between soil liquefaction and house prices are twofold. Some believe that the announcement of the inquiry system will severely impact the housing market. The house prices in the potential area are likely to fall, and the transaction volume will shrink significantly. However, taking the modern construction techniques and the symptoms of information fatigue into account, the others assume that there is only a limited influence on the housing market. Several previous empirical studies have assessed the impact of the hazard on specific markets but seldom did they focus on the relationship between soil liquefaction and housing prices. This study, therefore, aims at examining the effect of different potential levels of soil liquefaction on housing prices. The first section analyzes the price differences across distinctive levels of potential areas at one period of time. Meanwhile, the second section probes into the change in housing prices before and after the disclosure of Soil Liquefaction Inquiry System. In terms of research methodology, this study employs Hedonic Price Theory and Difference-in-Differences (DID) method with Matching. The transaction data of housing market is adapted from Actual Price Registration of Real Estate in Taipei City between March 2015 and February 2017. The statistical result shows that the disclosure of information on soil liquefaction potential has decreased house prices in the high-potential areas of Taipei by 3.34%; whereas, this effect became weaker half a year after the announcement. In the medium and low potential areas, there is no significant effect of the disclosure on housing prices. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究內容與方法 5 第三節 研究架構與流程 7 第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 9 第一節 土壤液化潛勢區事件背景 9 第二節 自然災害與不動產價格 14 第三節 特徵價格理論之相關研究 16 第四節 差異中之差異法之相關研究 18 第五節 小結 20 第三章 研究設計與資料說明 21 第一節 研究設計 21 第二節 實證模型之建立 22 第三節 資料說明與處理 26 第四章 實證結果與分析 36 第一節 土壤液化潛勢區對房價之影響效果 36 第二節 公布土壤液化潛勢區對房價之影響效果 39 第五章 結論與建議 47 第一節 結論 47 第二節 建議 49 參考文獻 50 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105257025 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 土壤液化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中之差異法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傾向分數配對法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 特徵價格法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Soil liquefaction en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-differences en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Propensity score matching en_US dc.title (題名) 土壤液化潛勢區公布對房價之影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Soil Liquefaction Information Disclosure on Housing Price en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文參考文獻 李世錡、陳彥仲，2002，「地震災害影響住宅市場之價格衝擊分析」，收錄於『2002年住宅學會年會論文集』，臺北：住宅學會。 李泳龍，2000，「集集地震災區公告土地現值調整作業之研究」，論文發表於〈2000年國土規劃論壇〉，國立成功大學都市計畫學系：臺南。 林元興、黃淑惠、蔡吉源，2006，「臺灣地區九二一地震對地價影響之研究」，『農業經濟半年刊』，80：1-22。 林美聆，1999，「九二一集集大地震全面勘災報告—大地工程」，臺北：國家地震工程研究中心。 林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「臺灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，『住宅學報』，1：21-45。 林祖嘉、馬毓駿，2007，「特徵方程式大量估價法在臺灣不動產市場之應用」，『 住宅學報』，16(2)：1-22。 張金鶚、范垂爐，1993，「房地產真實交易價格之研究」，『住宅學報』，1：75-97。 郭敏華，2007，「臺灣垃圾強制分類政策的成效實證分析」，政治大學財政研究所學位論文：臺北。 陳信宏，2014，「特種貨物及勞務稅條例(奢侈稅)實施對房價的影響－以新竹地區為例」，中央大學產業經濟研究所學位論文：桃園。 陳銘鴻，2002，「土壤液化成因、災害與復建」。論文發表於〈臺灣之活動斷層與地震災害研討會〉，經濟部中央地質調查所：臺中，民國九十一年九月十八日至十九日。 楊宗憲、蘇倖慧，2011，「迎毗設施與鄰避設施對住宅價格影響之研究」，『住宅學報』，20(2)：61-80。 楊重信，2008，「洪災防治之效益—以基隆河整治爲例」，『臺灣經濟預測與政策』，9(1)：33-67。 二、英文參考文獻 Alonso, W., 1964, Location and land use. Toward a general theory of land rent, Harvard University Press. Bernknopf, R. L., Brookshire, D. S., and Thayer, M. A., 1990, “Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 18(1): 35-49. Beron, K. J., Murdoch, J. C., Thayer, M. A., and Vijverberg, W. P., 1997, “An analysis of the housing market before and after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake”, Land Economics, 101-113. Brookshire, D. S., Thayer, M. A., Schulze, W. D., and d`Arge, R. C., 1982, “Valuing public goods: a comparison of survey and hedonic approaches”, The American Economic Review, 72(1): 165-177. Daniel, V. E., Florax, R. J., and Rietveld, P, 2009, “Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard”, Ecological Economics, 69(2): 355- 365. Dilley, M., 2005, Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis (Vol. 5), World Bank Publications. Donnelly, W. A., 1989. “Hedonic price analysis of the effect of a floodplain on property values”, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 25(3): 581-586. Eves, C., and Wilkinson, S., 2014, “Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour", Natural hazards, 71(3), 1519-1536. Graham J. Edward, Jr and William W. Hall, Jr, 2001, “Hurricanes, Housing Market Activity, and Coastal Real Estate Values”, The Appraisal Journal, 10: 379-387 Greenstone, M., and Gayer, T., 2009, “Quasi-experimental and experimental approaches to environmental economics”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 57(1): 21-44. Guo, S., and Fraser, M. W., 2010, Propensity score analysis: Statistical methods and analysis, SAGE Publishing Hallstrom, D. G., and Smith, V. K., 2005, “Market responses to hurricanes”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 50(3): 541-561. 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