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題名 可支配所得與未來不確定性因素對於家戶消費支出的影響
The Effects of Disposable Income and Future Uncertainty on Household Consumption作者 蘇建豪
Su, Jian-Hao貢獻者 吳文傑
Wu, Jack
蘇建豪
Su, Jian-Hao關鍵詞 預防性儲蓄理論
可支配所得
保險支出
Precautionary saving
Disposable income
Medical insurance expenditure日期 2018 上傳時間 27-Jul-2018 12:36:44 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文利用2016年主計處家庭收支調查之橫斷面資料探討家戶可支配所得與未來不確定因素對其消費支出的影響。除了透過建立OLS迴歸模型觀察風險相關解釋變數對於家戶消費支出與家戶非醫療消費支出的邊際效果，亦利用各種標準將家戶分組，觀察各群體面對風險時消費行為的異質性。此外，透過分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)檢視各解釋變數在特定條件分量下對於消費的邊際效果，將可比OLS模型更精確且完整地刻畫消費者在風險下的消費行為。實證結果發現，較高的教育程度、社會保險投保金額與私人醫療險，以及較完整的家庭組織將可透過減少未來各種不確定因素的程度，降低預防性儲蓄動機，進而增加家戶之當期消費。迴歸結果亦顯示，面對較高風險的群組皆呈現較高的邊際消費傾向，意味著當期消費支出與當期可支配所得存在一正向關係，且此正向關係隨不確定性的上升而提高，隱含對風險較為敏感的個人擁有較高的邊際消費傾向。
In this paper, we use the cross-sectional data of the report on the survey of family income and expenditure in 2016 to analyze the effects of disposable income and future uncertainty on household consumption. In addition to establishing the OLS regression model to observe the marginal effects of risk-related independent variables on household consumption and non-medical consumption, we also used various criteria to group households and observed the heterogeneity of consumer behavior under uncertainty. Besides, through quantile regression, we can examine the marginal effect of each independent variable on consumption under certain quantile, which can be more accurate and complete than the OLS model to characterize consumer behavior under uncertainty.The empirical results show that the education level, the amount of social insurance coverage, the integrity of the family organization structure, and the private medical insurance can reduce the degree of uncertainty in the future and reduce the incentives for precautionary saving, thereby increasing the household`s current consumption. The regression results also suggest that the higher-risk groups show higher marginal propensity to consume. This implies that there is a positive relationship between current consumption and disposable income in the current period, and this positive relationship increases as uncertainty increases, suggesting that individuals who are more sensitive to risk have a higher marginal propensity to consume.參考文獻 英文文獻部分Carrol, C.D.(1992). “The Buffer-Stock Theory of saving: some macroeconomicevidence. ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,23,61-156.Carrol, C.D.(1994). “How does future income affect current consumption?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,109,111-147.Carrol, C.D.(1997). “Buffer-Stock saving and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,112,1-55.Carrol, C.D., and Samwick A.A.(1998). “How important is precautionary saving?” The Review of Economics and Statistics,80,410-419.Chou, S.Y., Liu, J.T., and Hammitt, J.K.(2003). “National health insurance andprecautionary saving: evidence from Taiwan.” Journal of PublicEconomics,87,1873-1894.Feenberg, D., and Skinner, J.(1994). “The risk and duration of catastrophic health careexpenditures.” The Review of Economics and Statistics,76,633-647.Feldstein, M.(1988). “The effects of fiscal policies when incomes are uncertain: acontradiction to Ricardian equivalence.” The American Economic Review,78,14-23.Gruber, J., and Yelowitz, A.(1999). “Public health insurance and private savings.”Journal of Political Economy,107,1249-1274.Guariglia, A., and Rossi, M.(2004). “Private medical insurance and saving: evidencefrom the British household panel survey.” Journal of Health Economics,23,761-783.Hsu, M.(2013). “Health insurance and precautionary savings: a structural analysis.”Review of Economic Dynamics,16,511-526.Hubbard, R.G.(1987). “Uncertain lifetimes, pensions, and individual savings.” NBERChapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics,175-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Hubbard, R.G., Skinner, J., and Zeldes, S.P.(1994). “The importance of precautionaryMotives in explaining individual and aggregate saving.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,40,59-125.Hubbard, R.G., Skinner, J., and Zeldes, S.P.(1995). “Precautionary saving and socialinsurance.” Journal of Political Economy,103,360-399.Kimball, M.S.(1990). “Precautionary saving in the small and in the large.” Econometrica,58,53-73.Kimball, M.S.(1990). “Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume.” Journal of Political Economy,97,863-879.Kotlikoff, L.J.(1981). “The family as an incomplete annuities market.” Journal of Political Economy,89,372-391.Kotlikoff, L.J.(1986). “Health expenditures and precautionary savings.” NBER Working Papers 2008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Kotlikoff, L.J., Shoven, J., and Spivak, A.(1986). “The effect of annuity insurance on savings and inequality.” Journal of Labor Economics,4,183-207.Skinner, J.(1988). “Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings.” Journal of Monetary Economics,22,237-255.Starr-McCluer, M.,(1996). “Health Insurance and Precautionary Savings.” AmericanEconomic Review, American Economic Association,86,285-295Wagstaff, A., and Pradhan, M.(2005). “Health insurance impacts on health and nonmedical consumption in a developing country.” Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3563. World Bank, Washington, DC.中文文獻部分周燦(2014)。基於預防性儲蓄理論的中國保險消費外部性研究。中國社會科學院研究生院學報，第2期，40-50。陳建良(2007)。1980年至2000年台灣擁屋家戶儲蓄行為之變遷:分量迴歸分析的新發現。住宅學報，第十六卷第一期，57-78。廖述源，沈煥昇(2014)。個人傷害保險職業分類及其費率係數之探討。核保學報，第21期，126-154。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
105255017資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105255017 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Jack en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蘇建豪 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Su, Jian-Hao en_US dc.creator (作者) 蘇建豪 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Su, Jian-Hao en_US dc.date (日期) 2018 en_US dc.date.accessioned 27-Jul-2018 12:36:44 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 27-Jul-2018 12:36:44 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 27-Jul-2018 12:36:44 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105255017 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118981 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 105255017 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文利用2016年主計處家庭收支調查之橫斷面資料探討家戶可支配所得與未來不確定因素對其消費支出的影響。除了透過建立OLS迴歸模型觀察風險相關解釋變數對於家戶消費支出與家戶非醫療消費支出的邊際效果，亦利用各種標準將家戶分組，觀察各群體面對風險時消費行為的異質性。此外，透過分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)檢視各解釋變數在特定條件分量下對於消費的邊際效果，將可比OLS模型更精確且完整地刻畫消費者在風險下的消費行為。實證結果發現，較高的教育程度、社會保險投保金額與私人醫療險，以及較完整的家庭組織將可透過減少未來各種不確定因素的程度，降低預防性儲蓄動機，進而增加家戶之當期消費。迴歸結果亦顯示，面對較高風險的群組皆呈現較高的邊際消費傾向，意味著當期消費支出與當期可支配所得存在一正向關係，且此正向關係隨不確定性的上升而提高，隱含對風險較為敏感的個人擁有較高的邊際消費傾向。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In this paper, we use the cross-sectional data of the report on the survey of family income and expenditure in 2016 to analyze the effects of disposable income and future uncertainty on household consumption. In addition to establishing the OLS regression model to observe the marginal effects of risk-related independent variables on household consumption and non-medical consumption, we also used various criteria to group households and observed the heterogeneity of consumer behavior under uncertainty. Besides, through quantile regression, we can examine the marginal effect of each independent variable on consumption under certain quantile, which can be more accurate and complete than the OLS model to characterize consumer behavior under uncertainty.The empirical results show that the education level, the amount of social insurance coverage, the integrity of the family organization structure, and the private medical insurance can reduce the degree of uncertainty in the future and reduce the incentives for precautionary saving, thereby increasing the household`s current consumption. The regression results also suggest that the higher-risk groups show higher marginal propensity to consume. This implies that there is a positive relationship between current consumption and disposable income in the current period, and this positive relationship increases as uncertainty increases, suggesting that individuals who are more sensitive to risk have a higher marginal propensity to consume. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機 1第二節 研究目的 6第三節 研究方法 9第四節 研究結果 10第五節 研究架構 11第二章 文獻回顧 12第一節 預期收入的不確定性 12第二節 預期壽命的不確定性 15第三節 預期醫療支出的不確定性 17第四節 小結 22第三章 研究方法 24第一節 計量模型設定 24第二節 變數說明與預期符號 26第四章 資料來源 32第一節 資料來源 32第二節 樣本限制 32第三節 敘述統計 33第五章 實證結果 37第一節 模型檢定 37第二節 一般迴歸結果 38第三節 以家戶可支配所得分組 40第四節 以經濟戶長年齡分組 41第五節 以經濟戶長教育程度分組 43第六節 以經濟戶長職業風險分組 44第七節 以家戶醫療消費分組 45第八節 以家庭組織結構分組 46第九節 以家戶醫療消費支出分組 47第十節 分量迴歸結果 48第十一節 保險對個消費細項的影響 49第六章 結論 51參考文獻 53英文文獻 53中文文獻 55 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1722198 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105255017 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預防性儲蓄理論 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 可支配所得 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 保險支出 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Precautionary saving en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Disposable income en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Medical insurance expenditure en_US dc.title (題名) 可支配所得與未來不確定性因素對於家戶消費支出的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Effects of Disposable Income and Future Uncertainty on Household Consumption en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文文獻部分Carrol, C.D.(1992). “The Buffer-Stock Theory of saving: some macroeconomicevidence. ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,23,61-156.Carrol, C.D.(1994). “How does future income affect current consumption?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,109,111-147.Carrol, C.D.(1997). “Buffer-Stock saving and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,112,1-55.Carrol, C.D., and Samwick A.A.(1998). “How important is precautionary saving?” The Review of Economics and Statistics,80,410-419.Chou, S.Y., Liu, J.T., and Hammitt, J.K.(2003). “National health insurance andprecautionary saving: evidence from Taiwan.” Journal of PublicEconomics,87,1873-1894.Feenberg, D., and Skinner, J.(1994). “The risk and duration of catastrophic health careexpenditures.” The Review of Economics and Statistics,76,633-647.Feldstein, M.(1988). “The effects of fiscal policies when incomes are uncertain: acontradiction to Ricardian equivalence.” The American Economic Review,78,14-23.Gruber, J., and Yelowitz, A.(1999). “Public health insurance and private savings.”Journal of Political Economy,107,1249-1274.Guariglia, A., and Rossi, M.(2004). “Private medical insurance and saving: evidencefrom the British household panel survey.” Journal of Health Economics,23,761-783.Hsu, M.(2013). “Health insurance and precautionary savings: a structural analysis.”Review of Economic Dynamics,16,511-526.Hubbard, R.G.(1987). “Uncertain lifetimes, pensions, and individual savings.” NBERChapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics,175-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Hubbard, R.G., Skinner, J., and Zeldes, S.P.(1994). “The importance of precautionaryMotives in explaining individual and aggregate saving.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,40,59-125.Hubbard, R.G., Skinner, J., and Zeldes, S.P.(1995). “Precautionary saving and socialinsurance.” Journal of Political Economy,103,360-399.Kimball, M.S.(1990). “Precautionary saving in the small and in the large.” Econometrica,58,53-73.Kimball, M.S.(1990). “Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume.” Journal of Political Economy,97,863-879.Kotlikoff, L.J.(1981). “The family as an incomplete annuities market.” Journal of Political Economy,89,372-391.Kotlikoff, L.J.(1986). “Health expenditures and precautionary savings.” NBER Working Papers 2008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Kotlikoff, L.J., Shoven, J., and Spivak, A.(1986). “The effect of annuity insurance on savings and inequality.” Journal of Labor Economics,4,183-207.Skinner, J.(1988). “Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings.” Journal of Monetary Economics,22,237-255.Starr-McCluer, M.,(1996). “Health Insurance and Precautionary Savings.” AmericanEconomic Review, American Economic Association,86,285-295Wagstaff, A., and Pradhan, M.(2005). “Health insurance impacts on health and nonmedical consumption in a developing country.” Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3563. World Bank, Washington, DC.中文文獻部分周燦(2014)。基於預防性儲蓄理論的中國保險消費外部性研究。中國社會科學院研究生院學報，第2期，40-50。陳建良(2007)。1980年至2000年台灣擁屋家戶儲蓄行為之變遷:分量迴歸分析的新發現。住宅學報，第十六卷第一期，57-78。廖述源，沈煥昇(2014)。個人傷害保險職業分類及其費率係數之探討。核保學報，第21期，126-154。 zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.PF.016.2018.F07 -
