學術產出-Theses
Article View/Open
Publication Export
-
題名 物價目標區與不確定的政策：圖形的解析
Price Target Zones and Uncertain Policy：A Graphical Analysis作者 張鈺朋
Chang, Yu-Peng貢獻者 賴景昌<br>方中柔
Lai, Ching-Chong<br>Fang, Chung-Rou
張鈺朋
Chang, Yu-Peng關鍵詞 物價目標區
物價變動預期
蜜月效果
標準布朗運動
總合供給面干擾
Price target zone
Inflation expectations
Honey moon effect
Standard Brownian motion
Aggregate supply shock日期 2018 上傳時間 7-Aug-2018 17:22:39 (UTC+8) 摘要 一直以來，各國貨幣當局大多將物價穩定視為首要目標。本篇論文運用一封閉的總體模型，並且利用圖形解析的方法，討論物價目標區的實施在面對政策的不確定下是否對於相關總體變數具有安定效果，並且進一步討論物價目標區政策的相關因素對於政策效果的影響。我們發現物價目標區會影響民眾對於物價變動的預期。當經濟體系受到來自總合供給面的干擾時，物價目標區政策對於物價存在蜜月效果，但是對於產出會存在反蜜月效果。若考慮政策的不確定性，則物價目標區對於物價的蜜月效果與產出的反蜜月效果會降低，甚至在面對目標區重整的不確定時，物價可能產生反蜜月效果，而產出可能產生蜜月效果。此外，隨著民眾對政策的敏感度、目標區寬度、或重整規模的增加，物價的蜜月效果會降低，產出的反蜜月效果也會下降。
Up till now, price stability has still been treated as the first priority by the monetary authorities. Based on a closed-economy macro model, this thesis uses a graphical analysis to examine whether the implementation of the price target zone tends to stabilize or destabilize the relevant macroeconomic variables when the economy faces policy uncertainty. We also examine the stabilizing performance of the relevant factors of the price target zone. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, the price target zone tends to affect the public’s inflation expectations. Second, when the economy experiences an aggregate supply shock, the price target zone leads to a honeymoon effect in prices, but causes a divorce effect in output. Third, when the uncertainty of policy implementation is brought into the picture, the above two effects will be weakened. More specifically, when the uncertainty regarding the realignment of the band is present, the price target zone may lead to a divorce effect in price and a honeymoon effect in output. Moreover, following a rise in the public`s sensitivity to policy, the width of a band, and the size of a realignment, the honeymoon effect in price and the divorce effect in output will decline in response.參考文獻 一、中文部分 方中柔、陳孟甫（2010），「匯率目標區體制下匯率與利率差之波動：異質民眾預期的研究」，<應用經濟論叢>，第八十七期，頁1-43。 方耀（2006），「美國應否採行通膨目標化架構分析」，<中央銀行－國際金融參考資料>，第五十一輯，頁206-222。 吳聰敏（2006），「台灣戰後的惡性通貨膨脹（1945-1950）」，<國史館學術集刊>，第十期，頁129-160。 陳志祿（2000），「匯率目標區體制下的安定效果：圖形解析」，<國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 陳建文（2003），「不確定性下的匯率目標區分析」，<國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 陳佩玗（2012），「通膨目標機制之現況」，<中央銀行－國際金融參考資料>，第六十三輯，頁47-67。 黃莉娟（2001），「名目所得目標區與物價目標區的安定效果：不確定情況下的分析」，<東海大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 廖培賢（2006），「物價目標區政策下經濟安定性之研究－不確定情況下的分析」，<東海管理評論>，第八卷，第一期，頁109-156。 賴祈妃（2005），「匯率目標區體制下匯率與利率差之波動」，<國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 賴景昌（1994），<國際金融理論－進階篇>，台北，茂昌。 賴景昌（2006），<國際金融理論－基礎篇>，第二版，台北，華泰。 二、英文部分 Ball, L., and Sheridan, N. (2005), “Does Inflation Targeting Matter?” in The Inflation-Targeting Debate. Ben S. Bernanke and Michael Woodford, eds. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 249 -282. Berg, C., and Jonung, L. (1999), “Pioneering Price Level Targeting: The Swedish Experience 1931-1937,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43, pp.525-551. Bertola, G. and Caballero, R. J. (1992a), “Target Zones and Realignments,” American Economic Review, 82, pp. 520-536. Bertola, G. and Caballero, R. J. (1992b), “Sustainable Intervention Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” in Krugman, P. R. and M. Miller ed., Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands, pp. 186-206. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Bertola, G. and Svensson, L. E. O. (1993), “Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models,” Review of Economic Studies, 60, pp. 689-712. Bernanke, B. S., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F. S., and Posen, A. S., (1999), “Inflation targeting: Lessons from the International Experience,” Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Bernanke, B. S., and Mishkin. F. S. (1997), “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, pp. 97-116. Bernanke, B. S., Mishkin, F. S., and Posen, A. S. (2000), “What Happens When Greenspan Is Gone?” Wall Street Journal. Blinder, A. S. (2000), “Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?” American Economic Review, 90, pp. 1421-1431. Debelle, G., and Fischer, S. (1994), “How Independent Should a Central Bank Be?,” In Fuhrer, Jeffrey, ed., Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, pp. 195-221. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Fang, C. R., and Lai, C. C. (2002a), “Targeting Nominal Income versus Targeting Price level: A Target Zone Perspective,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 11, pp. 229-249. Fang, C. R., and Lai, C. C. (2002b), “Economic Stability under Price Management Policy: A Target Zone Perspective,” manuscript. Flood, R. P., and Garber, P. M. (1991), “The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 1367-1372. Friedman, B., and Kuttner, K. (1996), “A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 77-125. Klein, M. W. (1990), “Playing with the Band: Dynamic Effects of Target Zones in an Open Economic,” International Economics Review, 31, pp. 757-772. Krugman, P. (1991), “Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 669-682. Lai, C. C., and Chang, J. J. (2001), “A Note on Inflation Targeting,” Journal of Economic Education, 32, pp. 369-380. Lai, C. C., and Fang, C. R. (2012), “Is the Honeymoon Effects Valid in the Presence of Both Exchange Rate and Output Expectations? A Graphical Analysis,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 21, pp. 140-146. Orphanides, A., and Wieland, V. (2000). “Inflation Zone Targeting,” European Economic Review, 44, pp. 1351-1387. Posen, A. S. (1995), “Declarations are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1995, pp. 253-274. Posen, A. S., and Laubach, T. (1996), “Some Comparative Evidence on the Effectiveness of Inflation Targets,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Siklos, P. L. (1999), “Inflation-Targeting Design: Changing Inflation Performance and Persistence in Industrial Countries,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 81, pp. 47-58. Sutherland, A. (1995), “Monetary and Real Shocks and the Optimal Target Zone,” European Economic Review, 39, pp. 161-172. Torres, J. L. (2000), “An Heterogeneous Expectations Target Zone Model,” Economics Letters, 67, pp. 69-74. Tristani, O. (1994), “Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 96, pp. 1-14. Werner, A. M. (1995), “Exchange Rate Target Zone, Realignment and Interest Rate Differential: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of International Economics, 39, pp. 353-367. Williamson, J. (1983), “The Exchange Rate System,” Washington DC: Institute for International Economics. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
105258025資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258025 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 賴景昌<br>方中柔 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lai, Ching-Chong<br>Fang, Chung-Rou en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張鈺朋 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Yu-Peng en_US dc.creator (作者) 張鈺朋 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chang, Yu-Peng en_US dc.date (日期) 2018 en_US dc.date.accessioned 7-Aug-2018 17:22:39 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 7-Aug-2018 17:22:39 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 7-Aug-2018 17:22:39 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105258025 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/119264 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 105258025 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 一直以來，各國貨幣當局大多將物價穩定視為首要目標。本篇論文運用一封閉的總體模型，並且利用圖形解析的方法，討論物價目標區的實施在面對政策的不確定下是否對於相關總體變數具有安定效果，並且進一步討論物價目標區政策的相關因素對於政策效果的影響。我們發現物價目標區會影響民眾對於物價變動的預期。當經濟體系受到來自總合供給面的干擾時，物價目標區政策對於物價存在蜜月效果，但是對於產出會存在反蜜月效果。若考慮政策的不確定性，則物價目標區對於物價的蜜月效果與產出的反蜜月效果會降低，甚至在面對目標區重整的不確定時，物價可能產生反蜜月效果，而產出可能產生蜜月效果。此外，隨著民眾對政策的敏感度、目標區寬度、或重整規模的增加，物價的蜜月效果會降低，產出的反蜜月效果也會下降。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Up till now, price stability has still been treated as the first priority by the monetary authorities. Based on a closed-economy macro model, this thesis uses a graphical analysis to examine whether the implementation of the price target zone tends to stabilize or destabilize the relevant macroeconomic variables when the economy faces policy uncertainty. We also examine the stabilizing performance of the relevant factors of the price target zone. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, the price target zone tends to affect the public’s inflation expectations. Second, when the economy experiences an aggregate supply shock, the price target zone leads to a honeymoon effect in prices, but causes a divorce effect in output. Third, when the uncertainty of policy implementation is brought into the picture, the above two effects will be weakened. More specifically, when the uncertainty regarding the realignment of the band is present, the price target zone may lead to a divorce effect in price and a honeymoon effect in output. Moreover, following a rise in the public`s sensitivity to policy, the width of a band, and the size of a realignment, the honeymoon effect in price and the divorce effect in output will decline in response. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 誌謝 i 摘要 ii Abstract iii 目錄 iv 圖目錄 v 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 文獻回顧 2 1.3 研究動機 5 1.4 本文架構 6 第二章 理論模型 7 2.1 模型架構 7 2.2 分析方法 10 第三章 不確定的干預政策：物價自由調整與目標區體制 13 3.1 外生給定的兩類民眾比例 13 3.2 內生化的兩類民眾比例 15 3.2.1 信任貨幣當局的民眾比例之下降速度固定 16 3.2.2 信任貨幣當局的民眾比例之下降速度內生化 18 第四章 不確定的干預政策：物價目標區體制與重整 24 4.1 外生給定的兩類民眾比例 24 4.2 內生化的兩類民眾比例 27 4.2.1 信任貨幣當局的民眾比例之下降速度固定 28 4.2.2 信任貨幣當局的民眾比例之下降速度內生化 30 第五章 結論 41 附錄 43 數學附錄A. 43 數學附錄B. 45 參考文獻 48 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258025 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 物價目標區 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 物價變動預期 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 蜜月效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 標準布朗運動 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總合供給面干擾 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price target zone en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Inflation expectations en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Honey moon effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Standard Brownian motion en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Aggregate supply shock en_US dc.title (題名) 物價目標區與不確定的政策：圖形的解析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Price Target Zones and Uncertain Policy：A Graphical Analysis en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分 方中柔、陳孟甫（2010），「匯率目標區體制下匯率與利率差之波動：異質民眾預期的研究」，<應用經濟論叢>，第八十七期，頁1-43。 方耀（2006），「美國應否採行通膨目標化架構分析」，<中央銀行－國際金融參考資料>，第五十一輯，頁206-222。 吳聰敏（2006），「台灣戰後的惡性通貨膨脹（1945-1950）」，<國史館學術集刊>，第十期，頁129-160。 陳志祿（2000），「匯率目標區體制下的安定效果：圖形解析」，<國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 陳建文（2003），「不確定性下的匯率目標區分析」，<國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 陳佩玗（2012），「通膨目標機制之現況」，<中央銀行－國際金融參考資料>，第六十三輯，頁47-67。 黃莉娟（2001），「名目所得目標區與物價目標區的安定效果：不確定情況下的分析」，<東海大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 廖培賢（2006），「物價目標區政策下經濟安定性之研究－不確定情況下的分析」，<東海管理評論>，第八卷，第一期，頁109-156。 賴祈妃（2005），「匯率目標區體制下匯率與利率差之波動」，<國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文>。 賴景昌（1994），<國際金融理論－進階篇>，台北，茂昌。 賴景昌（2006），<國際金融理論－基礎篇>，第二版，台北，華泰。 二、英文部分 Ball, L., and Sheridan, N. (2005), “Does Inflation Targeting Matter?” in The Inflation-Targeting Debate. Ben S. Bernanke and Michael Woodford, eds. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 249 -282. Berg, C., and Jonung, L. (1999), “Pioneering Price Level Targeting: The Swedish Experience 1931-1937,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43, pp.525-551. Bertola, G. and Caballero, R. J. (1992a), “Target Zones and Realignments,” American Economic Review, 82, pp. 520-536. Bertola, G. and Caballero, R. J. (1992b), “Sustainable Intervention Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” in Krugman, P. R. and M. Miller ed., Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands, pp. 186-206. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Bertola, G. and Svensson, L. E. O. (1993), “Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models,” Review of Economic Studies, 60, pp. 689-712. Bernanke, B. S., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F. S., and Posen, A. S., (1999), “Inflation targeting: Lessons from the International Experience,” Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Bernanke, B. S., and Mishkin. F. S. (1997), “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, pp. 97-116. Bernanke, B. S., Mishkin, F. S., and Posen, A. S. (2000), “What Happens When Greenspan Is Gone?” Wall Street Journal. Blinder, A. S. (2000), “Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?” American Economic Review, 90, pp. 1421-1431. Debelle, G., and Fischer, S. (1994), “How Independent Should a Central Bank Be?,” In Fuhrer, Jeffrey, ed., Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, pp. 195-221. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Fang, C. R., and Lai, C. C. (2002a), “Targeting Nominal Income versus Targeting Price level: A Target Zone Perspective,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 11, pp. 229-249. Fang, C. R., and Lai, C. C. (2002b), “Economic Stability under Price Management Policy: A Target Zone Perspective,” manuscript. Flood, R. P., and Garber, P. M. (1991), “The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 1367-1372. Friedman, B., and Kuttner, K. (1996), “A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 77-125. Klein, M. W. (1990), “Playing with the Band: Dynamic Effects of Target Zones in an Open Economic,” International Economics Review, 31, pp. 757-772. Krugman, P. (1991), “Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, pp. 669-682. Lai, C. C., and Chang, J. J. (2001), “A Note on Inflation Targeting,” Journal of Economic Education, 32, pp. 369-380. Lai, C. C., and Fang, C. R. (2012), “Is the Honeymoon Effects Valid in the Presence of Both Exchange Rate and Output Expectations? A Graphical Analysis,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 21, pp. 140-146. Orphanides, A., and Wieland, V. (2000). “Inflation Zone Targeting,” European Economic Review, 44, pp. 1351-1387. Posen, A. S. (1995), “Declarations are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1995, pp. 253-274. Posen, A. S., and Laubach, T. (1996), “Some Comparative Evidence on the Effectiveness of Inflation Targets,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Siklos, P. L. (1999), “Inflation-Targeting Design: Changing Inflation Performance and Persistence in Industrial Countries,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 81, pp. 47-58. Sutherland, A. (1995), “Monetary and Real Shocks and the Optimal Target Zone,” European Economic Review, 39, pp. 161-172. Torres, J. L. (2000), “An Heterogeneous Expectations Target Zone Model,” Economics Letters, 67, pp. 69-74. Tristani, O. (1994), “Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 96, pp. 1-14. Werner, A. M. (1995), “Exchange Rate Target Zone, Realignment and Interest Rate Differential: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of International Economics, 39, pp. 353-367. Williamson, J. (1983), “The Exchange Rate System,” Washington DC: Institute for International Economics. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.ECONO.015.2018.F06 -
