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題名 預測市場系統於傳染性疾病預測之應用與使用者接受度
Application and User Acceptance of Prediction Market System in Epidemic Disease Forecasting
作者 張書勳
Chang, Shu-Hsun
貢獻者 李有仁
Li, Eldon Y.
張書勳
Chang, Shu-Hsun
關鍵詞 預測市場
系統發展
傳染性疾病預測
預測正確性
使用者接受
Prediction market
System development
Epidemic prediction
Prediction accuracy
User accpetance
日期 2018
上傳時間 29-Aug-2018 15:49:07 (UTC+8)
摘要 預測市場透過整合來自不同來源之資訊，用以預測未來發生之事件，本研究透過該項機制建置網際網路為基礎之預測市場系統，針對選定之傳染性疾病傳播之預測事件之實驗環境，蒐集驗證性資料探討預測市場之預測正確性。此外，並透過DeLone and McLean’s之理論為基礎，探討影響使用者持續使用預測市場行為之前置因子。
Prediction market, operating like a future market, can be used as a mechanism to integrate information from different sources to predict the outcomes of future events. This research first proposes an architecture and establishes a web-based system of prediction market. Then, the study conducts the investigation about the case that involves the prediction of epidemic disease breaks to empirically measure the accuracy of prediction market system. Further, this study proposes a research model based on the DeLone and McLean’s IS success model and Ajzen’s theory of planned behavior to comprehend the drivers that influence the users’ intentions to continue trading in the prediction market. Finally, academic and practical implications are discussed.
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
資訊管理學系
983565041
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0983565041
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李有仁zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Li, Eldon Y.en_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張書勳zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Shu-Hsunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 張書勳zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang, Shu-Hsunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Aug-2018 15:49:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Aug-2018 15:49:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Aug-2018 15:49:07 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0983565041en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/119723-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 983565041zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 預測市場透過整合來自不同來源之資訊，用以預測未來發生之事件，本研究透過該項機制建置網際網路為基礎之預測市場系統，針對選定之傳染性疾病傳播之預測事件之實驗環境，蒐集驗證性資料探討預測市場之預測正確性。此外，並透過DeLone and McLean’s之理論為基礎，探討影響使用者持續使用預測市場行為之前置因子。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Prediction market, operating like a future market, can be used as a mechanism to integrate information from different sources to predict the outcomes of future events. This research first proposes an architecture and establishes a web-based system of prediction market. Then, the study conducts the investigation about the case that involves the prediction of epidemic disease breaks to empirically measure the accuracy of prediction market system. Further, this study proposes a research model based on the DeLone and McLean’s IS success model and Ajzen’s theory of planned behavior to comprehend the drivers that influence the users’ intentions to continue trading in the prediction market. Finally, academic and practical implications are discussed.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents ABSTRACT 5
1. INTRODUCTION 6
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 11
2.1 PREDICTION MARKET 11
2.1.1 Prediction Market Systems in the Business World 13
2.1.2 Comparison with other Prediction Approaches 14
2.1.3 Trading Mechanisms in Prediction Markets 16
2.2 APPROACHES OF EPIDEMIC PREDICTION 20
2.2.1 Conventional Prediction Approaches of Epidemic Prediction 20
2.2.2 Prediction Market for Epidemic Prediction 22
2.3 USER ACCEPTANCE OF PREDICTION MARKET SYSTEMS 23
2.3.1 Appling Information Systems Success Model to Prediction Markets 23
2.3.2 Continuance Intention and Usage 24
2.3.3 Theory of Planned Behavior 25
2.3.4 Motivations of Using Information System 26
3. METHODOLOGY 27
3.1 DEVELOPMENT OF THE EPIDEMIC PREDICTION MARKET SYSTEM (EPMS) 27
3.1.1 System Architecture 27
3.1.2 Interface Screens 29
3.2 APPLICATION OF THE EPIDEMIC PREDICTION MARKET SYSTEM (EPMS) 33
3.3 USER ACCEPTANCE OF THE EPIDEMIC PREDICTION MARKET SYSTEM (EPMS) 34
3.3.1 The Research Model 34
3.3.2 Hypothesis Development 35
3.3.3 Survey Procedure 40
4. ANALYSES AND RESULTS 44
4.1 PREDICTION ACCURACY 44
4.2 WINNING RATIOS OF EPMS FOR THE PREDICTION OF FIVE DISEASES DURING THE LAST EIGHT WEEKS 45
4.3 WHAT ENTICES PEOPLE TO PARTICIPANT IN THE EPMS? 47
4.4 WHAT ENTICES PARTICIPANTS TO BEGIN TRADING IN THE EPMS? 49
4.5 WHAT DRIVES PARTICIPANTS TO CONTINUOUSLY TRADE IN THE EPMS? 51
4.6 MEASUREMENT VALIDATION 51
4.7 THE STRUCTURAL MODEL 52
4.8 WHAT FACTORS INFLUENCE THE DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION IN THE EPMS? 53
4.9 WHAT FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GOOD TRADERS AND POOR TRADERS? 54
4.10 WHAT FACTORS CONTRIBUTE MOST TO TRADING PERFORMANCE OF PARTICIPANTS? 55
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 57
5.1 CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION 57
5.2 THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS 60
5.3 PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS 60
5.4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE EPMS PROJECTS 61
REFERENCE 63		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0983565041en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 系統發展zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傳染性疾病預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測正確性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 使用者接受zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Prediction marketen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) System developmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Epidemic predictionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Prediction accuracyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) User accpetanceen_US
dc.title (題名) 預測市場系統於傳染性疾病預測之應用與使用者接受度zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Application and User Acceptance of Prediction Market System in Epidemic Disease Forecastingen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/DIS.NCCU.MIS.021.2018.A05-