1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. 學術產出
  3. College of Social Science
  4. Theses
  5. Item

學術產出-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

政大圖書館

Citation Infomation

題名 臺灣稅收預測探討
Tax Revenue Forecasting in Taiwan
作者 楊佩烜
Yang, Pei-Hsuan
貢獻者 陳國樑
Chen, Kuo-Liang
楊佩烜
Yang, Pei-Hsuan
關鍵詞 稅收預測
準確性
理性
日期 2018
上傳時間 29-Aug-2018 15:58:38 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文以臺灣1984年至2017年稅收預決算資料分析臺灣稅收預測之表現，並探討其預測是否符合「良好預測」須具備之性質。首先，檢視政府現有預估方法，發現依照稅源個別估算加總法係最為準確之預估方式，使用直接預估與採用以前年度預決算數之方法則為最不準確之預測方式，表示根據稅源對於稅收組成做更細緻的估算，結果有助於提高稅收預測的準確度。其次，地方稅之預測表現比國稅差，顯示地方政府在地方稅的稅收預測上有極大的改善空間。以經濟稅基分類下，流通稅的預測表現最差，財產稅雖然其預測準確度為最佳，但卻有明顯低估的現象。另外，透過國際間之稅收預測表現比較，亦顯示臺灣的稅收預測確實有進步之空間。
透過迴歸模型檢驗臺灣稅收預測的性質，發現臺灣稅收預測並未有愈來愈準之趨勢，儘管滿足不偏性，但並沒有滿足弱理性，表示稅收預測並未將其所擁有之資訊充分運用。最後，本文另外利用四種預測方法與政府預測進行指標及檢定比較，結果顯示其他預測方法之稅收預測結果皆不亞於政府預測結果，其中以ARIMA進行之稅收預估更是相對準確。
This paper analyzes the performance of tax revenue forecasts in Taiwan and examines whether tax revenue forecasts correspond to the properties of “good forecasts” in statistics and econometrics. The results suggest that, first, among different tax revenue forecasting methods employed by the Ministry of Finance, the summarization of tax composition by revenue sources is the most accurate forecasting method. On the other hand, ad-hoc forecast or using the previous year`s budget or revenue collected are the most inaccurate forecasting methods, suggesting that forecasting with detailed tax composition improves accuracy. Second, forecasts of local taxes are less accurate than national taxes, representing that local governments have greater room to improve in the qualities of tax revenue forecast. In addition, results from comparing revenue forecast results of 8 other counties, reinforces the need to improve the quality of tax revenue forecasts in Taiwan.
Regression analyses show no signs of improvement of tax revenue forecasts over time; although the null unbiasedness hypothesis tax revenue forecasts cannot be rejected, the forecasts failed the weak rationality test, suggesting that tax revenue forecasts did not utilize all available information. Finally, results from four competing methods are compared to the official forecasts, and we found that there are always more accurate forecasts than the official forecasts, in particular, revenue forecasts by ARIMA seems to provide the most accurate outcome.
參考文獻 古坤榮 (1995)，《我國綜合所得稅收入預測方法之研究》，政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
江振南 (1973)，「政府財政收入預測」，《經濟論文》，1，143–165。
李川源 (1979)，《台灣地區所得稅收之預測》，國立交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。
李慶泉 (1976)，「我國稅收估測方法之研究」，《稅務旬刊》，895，3–6。
吳中書 (1992)，「政府的預測合乎“理性”嗎？」，《經濟論文》，20，411–436。
林華德 (1978)，「臺灣賦稅收入預測」，《經濟論文叢刊》，12，41–90。
林華德 (1980)，「臺灣賦稅的月收入試析」，《財稅研究》，2，16–35。
姚秀華 (2010)，《灰色系統理論應用於稅收預測之研究》，國立高雄應用科技大學商務經營研究所碩士論文。
凌忠嫄 (1984)，《我國賦稅收入迴歸分析之研究》，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
徐偉初與梁志民 (2004)，「建立強化稅收預測及以財政政策為導向的計量經濟模型之研究」，財政部委託研究計劃。
陳聽安與陳國樑 (2017)，「超徵？是短估！」，聯合報民意論壇，2017年12月18日。
梁國源與周大森 (2002)，「台灣經濟預測引用國際數據之檢視—以WEFA, IMF與OECD為例」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，33，41–74。
張紹勳 (2016)，《STATA在財務金融與經濟分析的應用》，臺北：五南出版社。
曾永清 (1988)，「臺灣地區關稅收入之預測分析」，《中國工商學報》，9，63–85。
黃美玲 (2011)，《建構所得稅預測模式之研究》，國立臺中技術學院事業經營研究所碩士論文。
鄭光甫與林全 (1992)，《臺灣地區稅收估測模型之建立與應用》，行政院主計總處、財政部賦稅署與財政部關政司委託研究計畫。
鄧哲偉 (2007)，「稅收連年大超徵，應嚴懲失職」，東森新聞，96年10月30日。
蔡招榮 (1979)，《台灣財產稅月稅收預測-隨機時間序列分析之應用》，國立交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。
賴景昌 (2013)，《總體經濟學》，臺北：雙葉書廊。
鍾世保 (1976)，「我國賦稅收入短期預測之研究」，《中國統計學報》，14，5313–5328。
鍾世保 (1977)，「我國賦稅收入半年預測模型之研究」，《中國統計學報》，15，5745–5760。
謝邦昌 (2002)，「多變量稅收估測模型之建立及其在SCA時間數列統計套裝軟體之應用」，財政部委託研究計畫。
魏文欽 (1990)，《我國賦稅收入季模型估測》，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
魏宗參 (1979)，《台灣消費稅稅收之短期預測》，國立交通大學管理研究所碩士論文。
羅時萬 (1989)，《所得稅的稅收預測-預測效果及效果監控》，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
欉清全，李政峰與郭炳伸 (2005)，「預測績效檢定：簡單迴歸之應用」，《經濟論文》，33，1–33。
Afonso, A., and R. Carvalho (2013), “Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union,” Working Paper.
Armstrong, J. S. and F. Collopy (1992), “Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons,” International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69–80.
Ashley, R., C. W. Granger, and R. Schmalensee (1980), “Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality,” Econometrica, 48, 1149–1167.
Auerbach, A. J. (1996), “Dynamic Revenue Estimation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 141–157.
Auerbach, A. J. (1999), “On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts,” National Tax Journal, 52, 767–782.
Auerbach, A. J. (1995), “Tax Projections and the Budget: Lessons from the 1980’s,” American Economic Review, 85, 165–169.
Baghestani, H. and R. McNown (1992), “Forecasting the Federal Budget with Time‐Series Models,” Journal of Forecasting, 11, 127–139.
Bischoff, I. and W. Gohout (2010), “The Political Economy of Tax Projections,” International Tax and Public Finance, 17, 133–150.
Bonham, C. S. and D. C. Dacy (1991), “In Search of a “Strictly Rational” Forecast,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 245–253.
Box, G. P. E. and G. M. Jenkins (1994), Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
Boylan, R. T. (2008), “Political Distortions in State Forecasts,” Public Choice, 136, 411–427.
Bretschneider, S. and L. Schroeder (1988), “Evaluation of Commercial Economic Forecasts for Use in Local Government Budgeting,” International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 33–43.
Bretschneider, S. I. and W. L. Gorr (1987), “State and Local Government Revenue Forecasting,” The Handbook of Forecasting, 118–134.
Bretschneider, S. I., W. L. Gorr, G. Grizzle, and E. Klay (1989), “Political and Organizational Influences on the Accuracy of Forecasting State Government Revenues,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 307–319.
Breuer, C. (2015), “On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany,” Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik, 235, 22–40.
Bruck, T. and A. Stephan (2006), “Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts,” Kyklos, 59, 3–15.
Buettner, T. and B. Kauder (2010), “Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance,” Fiscal Studies, 31, 313–340.
Campbell, B., and E. Ghysels (1995), “Federal Budget Projections: A Nonparametric Assessment of Bias and Efficiency,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 77, 17–31.
Carbone, R. and J. S. Armstrong (1982), “Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners,” Journal of Forecasting, 1, 215–217.
Cassidy, G., M. S. Kamlet, and D. S. Nagin (1989), “An Empirical Examination of Bias in Revenue Forecasts by State Governments,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 321–331.
Cimadomo, J. (2014), “Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature,” Journal of Economic Survey, 30, 302–326.
Clements, M. P. and D. F. Hendry (1993), “On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors,” Journal of Forecasting, 12, 617–637.
Congressional Budget Office (2001), “Description of CBO’s Models and Methods for Projecting Federal Revenues,” Congressional Budget Office.
Couture, J. and L. M. Imbeau (2009), “Do Governments Manipulate Their Revenue Forecasts? Budget Speech and Budget Outcomes in the Canadian Provinces,” in L. M. Imbeau (ed.), Do They Walk Like They Talk?, 155–166, New York: Springer.
Diebold, F. X. and R. S. Mariano (2002), “Comparing Predictive Accuracy,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 134–144.
Enders, Walter (2010), Applied Econometric Time Series, New Jersey: Wiley.
Fama, E. F. (1976), Foundations of Finance: Portfolio Decisions and Securities Prices, New Jersey: Wiley-Blackwell.
Feenberg, D. R., W. M. Gentry, D. Gilroy, and H. S. Rosen (1988), “Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 300–308.
Frankel, J. A. and J. Schreger (2016), “Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?” NBER Working Paper, No. 22349.
Fullerton, M. (1991), “A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenue: Case Study of the Idaho Sales Tax,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 373–380.
Gebhardt, H. (2001), “Methoden, Probleme und Ergebnisse der Steuerschätzung,” RWI-Mitteilungen, 52, 127–147.
Gentry, W. M. (1989), “Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information?” National Tax Journal, 42, 429–439.
Golosov, M. M. and M. J. King (2002), “Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs,” IMF Working Paper, No. 02/236.
Granger, C. W. J. and P. Newbold (2014), Forecasting Economic Time Series, Cambridge: Academic Press.
Hannon, A., E. Leahy, and R. O`Sullivan (2016), “An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland,” The Economic and Social Review, 47, 391–423.
Holden, K. and D. Peel (1990), “On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts,” The Manchester School, 58, 120–127.
Hyndman, R. J. and A. B. Koehler (2006), “Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy,” International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 679–688.
Jonung, L. and M. Larch (2006), “Fiscal Policy in the EU: Are Official Output Forecasts Biased?” Economic Policy, 21, 491–534.
Kamlet, M. S., D. C. Mowery, and T. T. Su (1987), “Whom Do You Trust? An Analysis of Executive and Congressional Economic Forecasts,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 6, 365–384.
King, J. R. (1995), “Alternative Methods of Revenue Forecasting and Estimation,” in P. Shome (ed.), Tax Policy Handbook, 254–257, Washington, D. C., International Monetary Fund.
Klay, W. E. (1983), “Revenue Forecasting: An Administrative Perspective,” in J. Robin and T. Lynch (eds.), Handbook on Public Budgeting and Financial Management, 287–315, New York: Marcel Dekker.
Koirala, T. P. (2011), “Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal,” NBR Economic Review, 4, 48–60.
Kyobe, A. and M. S. Danninger (2005), “Revenue Forecasting: How Is It Done? Results from A Survey of Low-Income Countries,” IMF Working Paper, No. 5-24.
Larkey, P. D. and R. A. Smith (1989), “Bias in the Formulation of Local Government Budget Problems,” Policy Sciences, 22, 123–166.
Leal, T., J. J. Pérez, M. Tujula, and J. P. Vidal (2008), “Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges,” Fiscal Studies, 29, 347–386.
Lee, B. S. (1991), “On the Rationality of Forecasts,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 365–370.
Leitch, G. and J. E. Tanner (1991), “Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits Versus the Conventional Error Measures,” American Economic Review, 81, 580–590.
Lovell, M. C. (1986), “Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis,” American Economic Review, 76, 110–124.
Mocan, H. N. and S. Azad (1995), “Accuracy and Rationality of State General Fund Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Panel Data,” International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 417–427.
Morgan, W. A. (1939), “A Test for the Significance of the Difference Between the Two Variances in a Sample from a Normal Bivariate Population,” Biometrika, 31, 13–19.
Moulin, L. and P. Wierts (2006), “How Credible are Multiannual Budgetary Plans in the EU?” Fiscal Indicators, 983–1005.
Muth, J. F. (1961), “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica, 29, 315–335.
Nordhaus, W. D. (1987), “Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 667–674.
Pearce, D. K. (1979), “Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11, 447–456.
Pina, Á. M. and N. M. Venes (2011), “The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment,” European Journal of Political Economy, 27, 534–546.
Plesko, G.A. (1988), “The Accuracy of Government Forecasts and Budget Projections,” National Tax Journal, 41, 483–501.
Rodgers, R. and P. Joyce (1996), “The Effect of Underforecasting on the Accuracy of Revenue Forecasts by State Governments,” Public Administration Review, 56, 48–56.
Rubin, I. S. (1987), “Estimated and Actual Urban Revenues: Exploring the Gap,” Public Budgeting and Finance, 7, 83–94.
Ruoss, E. and M. Savioz (2002), “How Accurate Are GDP Forecasts? An Empirical Study for Switzerland,” Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin, 3, 42–63.
Schoefisch, U. (2005), “Examination of the New Zealand Treasury’s Tax Forecasting Methods and Processes,” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper, No. 21.
Shkurti, W. J. and D. Winefordner (1989), “The Politics of State Revenue Forecasting in Ohio, 1984–1987: A Case Study and Research Implications,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 361–371.
Strauch, R., M. Hallerberg, and J. Von Hagen (2004), “Budgetary Forecasts in Europe–The Track Record of Stability and Covergence Programmes,” European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 307.
Theil, H. (1966), Applied Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland Pub.
Tkacz, G. (2001), “Neural Network Forecasting of Canadian GDP Growth,” International Journal of Forecasting, 17, 57–69.
Nandi, B. K., M. Chaudhury, and G. Q. Hasan (2014), “Univariate Time Series Forecasting: A Study of Monthly Tax Revenue of Bangladesh,” EWUCRT Working Paper, No. 9.
Vasche, J. D. and B. Williams (1987), “Optimal Government Budgeting Contingency Reserve Funds.” Public Budgeting and Finance, 7, 66–82.
Voorhees, W. R. (2004), “More is Better: Consensual Forecasting and State Revenue Forecast Error,” International Journal of Public Administration, 27, 651–671.
Zarnowitz, V. (1984), “The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys,” Journal of Forecasting, 3, 11–26.
Zarnowitz, V. (1985), “Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 3, 293–311.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
105255011
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105255011
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳國樑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Kuo-Liangen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊佩烜zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Pei-Hsuanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 楊佩烜zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Yang, Pei-Hsuanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Aug-2018 15:58:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Aug-2018 15:58:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Aug-2018 15:58:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105255011en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/119780-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 105255011zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文以臺灣1984年至2017年稅收預決算資料分析臺灣稅收預測之表現，並探討其預測是否符合「良好預測」須具備之性質。首先，檢視政府現有預估方法，發現依照稅源個別估算加總法係最為準確之預估方式，使用直接預估與採用以前年度預決算數之方法則為最不準確之預測方式，表示根據稅源對於稅收組成做更細緻的估算，結果有助於提高稅收預測的準確度。其次，地方稅之預測表現比國稅差，顯示地方政府在地方稅的稅收預測上有極大的改善空間。以經濟稅基分類下，流通稅的預測表現最差，財產稅雖然其預測準確度為最佳，但卻有明顯低估的現象。另外，透過國際間之稅收預測表現比較，亦顯示臺灣的稅收預測確實有進步之空間。
透過迴歸模型檢驗臺灣稅收預測的性質，發現臺灣稅收預測並未有愈來愈準之趨勢，儘管滿足不偏性，但並沒有滿足弱理性，表示稅收預測並未將其所擁有之資訊充分運用。最後，本文另外利用四種預測方法與政府預測進行指標及檢定比較，結果顯示其他預測方法之稅收預測結果皆不亞於政府預測結果，其中以ARIMA進行之稅收預估更是相對準確。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper analyzes the performance of tax revenue forecasts in Taiwan and examines whether tax revenue forecasts correspond to the properties of “good forecasts” in statistics and econometrics. The results suggest that, first, among different tax revenue forecasting methods employed by the Ministry of Finance, the summarization of tax composition by revenue sources is the most accurate forecasting method. On the other hand, ad-hoc forecast or using the previous year`s budget or revenue collected are the most inaccurate forecasting methods, suggesting that forecasting with detailed tax composition improves accuracy. Second, forecasts of local taxes are less accurate than national taxes, representing that local governments have greater room to improve in the qualities of tax revenue forecast. In addition, results from comparing revenue forecast results of 8 other counties, reinforces the need to improve the quality of tax revenue forecasts in Taiwan.
Regression analyses show no signs of improvement of tax revenue forecasts over time; although the null unbiasedness hypothesis tax revenue forecasts cannot be rejected, the forecasts failed the weak rationality test, suggesting that tax revenue forecasts did not utilize all available information. Finally, results from four competing methods are compared to the official forecasts, and we found that there are always more accurate forecasts than the official forecasts, in particular, revenue forecasts by ARIMA seems to provide the most accurate outcome.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 預測誤差的性質 5
第二節 影響稅收預測誤差之因素分析 12
第三章 臺灣稅收預測情形 16
第一節 臺灣稅收高低估狀況分析 16
第二節 臺灣各稅目稅收估計方法與準確度比較 22
第三節 臺灣與其他國家稅收預測比較 41
第四章 研究方法 46
第一節 誤差遞減、不偏性以及弱理性檢驗 46
第二節 實際稅收預測與其他方法預測之準確性比較 48
第五章 實證結果 58
第一節 誤差遞減、不偏性以及弱理性檢驗 58
第二節 實際稅收預測與其他方法預測之準確性比較 64
第六章 結論與建議 83
參考文獻 85
附錄一 不同預測方法之平均值檢定與變異數比檢定 93
附錄二 不同稅基下之平均值檢定與變異數比檢定 94
附錄三 國稅與地方稅之平均值檢定與變異數比檢定 96
附錄四 各稅目預測誤差趨勢各區間之實證結果 97
附錄五 弱理性檢定完整實證結果 98		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2132091 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105255011en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 稅收預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 準確性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 理性zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 臺灣稅收預測探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Tax Revenue Forecasting in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 古坤榮 (1995)，《我國綜合所得稅收入預測方法之研究》，政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
江振南 (1973)，「政府財政收入預測」，《經濟論文》，1，143–165。
李川源 (1979)，《台灣地區所得稅收之預測》，國立交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。
李慶泉 (1976)，「我國稅收估測方法之研究」，《稅務旬刊》，895，3–6。
吳中書 (1992)，「政府的預測合乎“理性”嗎？」，《經濟論文》，20，411–436。
林華德 (1978)，「臺灣賦稅收入預測」，《經濟論文叢刊》，12，41–90。
林華德 (1980)，「臺灣賦稅的月收入試析」，《財稅研究》，2，16–35。
姚秀華 (2010)，《灰色系統理論應用於稅收預測之研究》，國立高雄應用科技大學商務經營研究所碩士論文。
凌忠嫄 (1984)，《我國賦稅收入迴歸分析之研究》，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
徐偉初與梁志民 (2004)，「建立強化稅收預測及以財政政策為導向的計量經濟模型之研究」，財政部委託研究計劃。
陳聽安與陳國樑 (2017)，「超徵？是短估！」，聯合報民意論壇，2017年12月18日。
梁國源與周大森 (2002)，「台灣經濟預測引用國際數據之檢視—以WEFA, IMF與OECD為例」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，33，41–74。
張紹勳 (2016)，《STATA在財務金融與經濟分析的應用》，臺北：五南出版社。
曾永清 (1988)，「臺灣地區關稅收入之預測分析」，《中國工商學報》，9，63–85。
黃美玲 (2011)，《建構所得稅預測模式之研究》，國立臺中技術學院事業經營研究所碩士論文。
鄭光甫與林全 (1992)，《臺灣地區稅收估測模型之建立與應用》，行政院主計總處、財政部賦稅署與財政部關政司委託研究計畫。
鄧哲偉 (2007)，「稅收連年大超徵，應嚴懲失職」，東森新聞，96年10月30日。
蔡招榮 (1979)，《台灣財產稅月稅收預測-隨機時間序列分析之應用》，國立交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。
賴景昌 (2013)，《總體經濟學》，臺北：雙葉書廊。
鍾世保 (1976)，「我國賦稅收入短期預測之研究」，《中國統計學報》，14，5313–5328。
鍾世保 (1977)，「我國賦稅收入半年預測模型之研究」，《中國統計學報》，15，5745–5760。
謝邦昌 (2002)，「多變量稅收估測模型之建立及其在SCA時間數列統計套裝軟體之應用」，財政部委託研究計畫。
魏文欽 (1990)，《我國賦稅收入季模型估測》，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
魏宗參 (1979)，《台灣消費稅稅收之短期預測》，國立交通大學管理研究所碩士論文。
羅時萬 (1989)，《所得稅的稅收預測-預測效果及效果監控》，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。
欉清全，李政峰與郭炳伸 (2005)，「預測績效檢定：簡單迴歸之應用」，《經濟論文》，33，1–33。
Afonso, A., and R. Carvalho (2013), “Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union,” Working Paper.
Armstrong, J. S. and F. Collopy (1992), “Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons,” International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69–80.
Ashley, R., C. W. Granger, and R. Schmalensee (1980), “Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality,” Econometrica, 48, 1149–1167.
Auerbach, A. J. (1996), “Dynamic Revenue Estimation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 141–157.
Auerbach, A. J. (1999), “On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts,” National Tax Journal, 52, 767–782.
Auerbach, A. J. (1995), “Tax Projections and the Budget: Lessons from the 1980’s,” American Economic Review, 85, 165–169.
Baghestani, H. and R. McNown (1992), “Forecasting the Federal Budget with Time‐Series Models,” Journal of Forecasting, 11, 127–139.
Bischoff, I. and W. Gohout (2010), “The Political Economy of Tax Projections,” International Tax and Public Finance, 17, 133–150.
Bonham, C. S. and D. C. Dacy (1991), “In Search of a “Strictly Rational” Forecast,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 245–253.
Box, G. P. E. and G. M. Jenkins (1994), Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
Boylan, R. T. (2008), “Political Distortions in State Forecasts,” Public Choice, 136, 411–427.
Bretschneider, S. and L. Schroeder (1988), “Evaluation of Commercial Economic Forecasts for Use in Local Government Budgeting,” International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 33–43.
Bretschneider, S. I. and W. L. Gorr (1987), “State and Local Government Revenue Forecasting,” The Handbook of Forecasting, 118–134.
Bretschneider, S. I., W. L. Gorr, G. Grizzle, and E. Klay (1989), “Political and Organizational Influences on the Accuracy of Forecasting State Government Revenues,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 307–319.
Breuer, C. (2015), “On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany,” Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik, 235, 22–40.
Bruck, T. and A. Stephan (2006), “Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts,” Kyklos, 59, 3–15.
Buettner, T. and B. Kauder (2010), “Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance,” Fiscal Studies, 31, 313–340.
Campbell, B., and E. Ghysels (1995), “Federal Budget Projections: A Nonparametric Assessment of Bias and Efficiency,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 77, 17–31.
Carbone, R. and J. S. Armstrong (1982), “Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners,” Journal of Forecasting, 1, 215–217.
Cassidy, G., M. S. Kamlet, and D. S. Nagin (1989), “An Empirical Examination of Bias in Revenue Forecasts by State Governments,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 321–331.
Cimadomo, J. (2014), “Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature,” Journal of Economic Survey, 30, 302–326.
Clements, M. P. and D. F. Hendry (1993), “On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors,” Journal of Forecasting, 12, 617–637.
Congressional Budget Office (2001), “Description of CBO’s Models and Methods for Projecting Federal Revenues,” Congressional Budget Office.
Couture, J. and L. M. Imbeau (2009), “Do Governments Manipulate Their Revenue Forecasts? Budget Speech and Budget Outcomes in the Canadian Provinces,” in L. M. Imbeau (ed.), Do They Walk Like They Talk?, 155–166, New York: Springer.
Diebold, F. X. and R. S. Mariano (2002), “Comparing Predictive Accuracy,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 134–144.
Enders, Walter (2010), Applied Econometric Time Series, New Jersey: Wiley.
Fama, E. F. (1976), Foundations of Finance: Portfolio Decisions and Securities Prices, New Jersey: Wiley-Blackwell.
Feenberg, D. R., W. M. Gentry, D. Gilroy, and H. S. Rosen (1988), “Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 300–308.
Frankel, J. A. and J. Schreger (2016), “Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?” NBER Working Paper, No. 22349.
Fullerton, M. (1991), “A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenue: Case Study of the Idaho Sales Tax,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 373–380.
Gebhardt, H. (2001), “Methoden, Probleme und Ergebnisse der Steuerschätzung,” RWI-Mitteilungen, 52, 127–147.
Gentry, W. M. (1989), “Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information?” National Tax Journal, 42, 429–439.
Golosov, M. M. and M. J. King (2002), “Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs,” IMF Working Paper, No. 02/236.
Granger, C. W. J. and P. Newbold (2014), Forecasting Economic Time Series, Cambridge: Academic Press.
Hannon, A., E. Leahy, and R. O`Sullivan (2016), “An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland,” The Economic and Social Review, 47, 391–423.
Holden, K. and D. Peel (1990), “On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts,” The Manchester School, 58, 120–127.
Hyndman, R. J. and A. B. Koehler (2006), “Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy,” International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 679–688.
Jonung, L. and M. Larch (2006), “Fiscal Policy in the EU: Are Official Output Forecasts Biased?” Economic Policy, 21, 491–534.
Kamlet, M. S., D. C. Mowery, and T. T. Su (1987), “Whom Do You Trust? An Analysis of Executive and Congressional Economic Forecasts,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 6, 365–384.
King, J. R. (1995), “Alternative Methods of Revenue Forecasting and Estimation,” in P. Shome (ed.), Tax Policy Handbook, 254–257, Washington, D. C., International Monetary Fund.
Klay, W. E. (1983), “Revenue Forecasting: An Administrative Perspective,” in J. Robin and T. Lynch (eds.), Handbook on Public Budgeting and Financial Management, 287–315, New York: Marcel Dekker.
Koirala, T. P. (2011), “Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal,” NBR Economic Review, 4, 48–60.
Kyobe, A. and M. S. Danninger (2005), “Revenue Forecasting: How Is It Done? Results from A Survey of Low-Income Countries,” IMF Working Paper, No. 5-24.
Larkey, P. D. and R. A. Smith (1989), “Bias in the Formulation of Local Government Budget Problems,” Policy Sciences, 22, 123–166.
Leal, T., J. J. Pérez, M. Tujula, and J. P. Vidal (2008), “Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges,” Fiscal Studies, 29, 347–386.
Lee, B. S. (1991), “On the Rationality of Forecasts,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 365–370.
Leitch, G. and J. E. Tanner (1991), “Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits Versus the Conventional Error Measures,” American Economic Review, 81, 580–590.
Lovell, M. C. (1986), “Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis,” American Economic Review, 76, 110–124.
Mocan, H. N. and S. Azad (1995), “Accuracy and Rationality of State General Fund Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Panel Data,” International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 417–427.
Morgan, W. A. (1939), “A Test for the Significance of the Difference Between the Two Variances in a Sample from a Normal Bivariate Population,” Biometrika, 31, 13–19.
Moulin, L. and P. Wierts (2006), “How Credible are Multiannual Budgetary Plans in the EU?” Fiscal Indicators, 983–1005.
Muth, J. F. (1961), “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica, 29, 315–335.
Nordhaus, W. D. (1987), “Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 667–674.
Pearce, D. K. (1979), “Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11, 447–456.
Pina, Á. M. and N. M. Venes (2011), “The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment,” European Journal of Political Economy, 27, 534–546.
Plesko, G.A. (1988), “The Accuracy of Government Forecasts and Budget Projections,” National Tax Journal, 41, 483–501.
Rodgers, R. and P. Joyce (1996), “The Effect of Underforecasting on the Accuracy of Revenue Forecasts by State Governments,” Public Administration Review, 56, 48–56.
Rubin, I. S. (1987), “Estimated and Actual Urban Revenues: Exploring the Gap,” Public Budgeting and Finance, 7, 83–94.
Ruoss, E. and M. Savioz (2002), “How Accurate Are GDP Forecasts? An Empirical Study for Switzerland,” Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin, 3, 42–63.
Schoefisch, U. (2005), “Examination of the New Zealand Treasury’s Tax Forecasting Methods and Processes,” New Zealand Treasury Working Paper, No. 21.
Shkurti, W. J. and D. Winefordner (1989), “The Politics of State Revenue Forecasting in Ohio, 1984–1987: A Case Study and Research Implications,” International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 361–371.
Strauch, R., M. Hallerberg, and J. Von Hagen (2004), “Budgetary Forecasts in Europe–The Track Record of Stability and Covergence Programmes,” European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 307.
Theil, H. (1966), Applied Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland Pub.
Tkacz, G. (2001), “Neural Network Forecasting of Canadian GDP Growth,” International Journal of Forecasting, 17, 57–69.
Nandi, B. K., M. Chaudhury, and G. Q. Hasan (2014), “Univariate Time Series Forecasting: A Study of Monthly Tax Revenue of Bangladesh,” EWUCRT Working Paper, No. 9.
Vasche, J. D. and B. Williams (1987), “Optimal Government Budgeting Contingency Reserve Funds.” Public Budgeting and Finance, 7, 66–82.
Voorhees, W. R. (2004), “More is Better: Consensual Forecasting and State Revenue Forecast Error,” International Journal of Public Administration, 27, 651–671.
Zarnowitz, V. (1984), “The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys,” Journal of Forecasting, 3, 11–26.
Zarnowitz, V. (1985), “Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 3, 293–311.		zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.PF.028.2018.F07-