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題名 預測資訊分享與半導體零件通路商績效
The Role of Forecast Sharing in Semiconductor Distributor Performance作者 楊惠晴
Yang, Hui-Ching貢獻者 張欣綠<br>周彥君
Chang, Hsin-Lu<br>Chou, Yen-Chun
楊惠晴
Yang, Hui-Ching關鍵詞 預測分享
供應鏈管理
半導體產業
Forecast sharing
Supply chain management
Semiconductor industry日期 2018 上傳時間 1-Oct-2018 12:06:30 (UTC+8) 摘要 We cooperate with a leading semiconductor distributor, and find out they make replenishment decisions based on past orders instead of forecasts from their customers. We therefore study the role of forecast sharing in semiconductor distributor, and examine if forecast information is relevant to inventory and sale management of semiconductor distributors. We also examine how external and internal complexity which are specified as forecast fluctuation and hubs’ order diversification moderate the relationships among forecasts, inventory and sales. We collect orders and forecasts of one main customer of W company, and the associated inventory records prepared by W company from 2016/10 to 2017/10. The data shows a hierarchical relationship: orders of a component belonged to a storage hub. We discover that forecast information is relevant to the semiconductor distributor’s inventories and sales. Our findings also show that forecast signal decreases by forecast fluctuation and hubs’ order diversification which give semiconductor distributors some management implications. 參考文獻 [1] Ali, M. M., Boylan, J. E., & Syntetos, A. A. (2012). Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 830-841. [2] Angulo, A., Nachtmann, H., & Waller, M. A. (2004). Supply chain information sharing in a vendor managed inventory partnership. Journal of business logistics, 25(1), 101-120. [3] Aviv, Y., & Federgruen, A. (1998). The operational benefits of information sharing and vendor managed inventory (VMI) programs. Olin School of Business Working Paper. [4] Aviv, Y. (2001). The effect of collaborative forecasting on supply chain performance. Management science, 47(10), 1326-1343. [5] Bourland, K. E., Powell, S. G., & Pyke, D. F. (1996). Exploiting timely demand information to reduce inventories. European journal of operational research, 92(2), 239-253. [6] Bozarth, C. C., Warsing, D. P., Flynn, B. B., & Flynn, E. J. (2009). The impact of supply chain complexity on manufacturing plant performance. Journal of Operations Management, 27(1), 78-93. [7] Cachon, G. P., & Fisher, M. (2000). Supply chain inventory management and the value of shared information. Management science, 46(8), 1032-1048. [8] Cachon, G. P., & Lariviere, M. A. (2001). Contracting to assure supply: How to share demand forecasts in a supply chain. Management science, 47(5), 629-646. [9] Carr, A. S., & Kaynak, H. (2007). Communication methods, information sharing, supplier development and performance: an empirical study of their relationships. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 27(4), 346-370. [10] Cattani, K., & Hausman, W. (2000). Why are forecast updates often disappointing?. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2(2), 119-127. [11] Dong, Y., Dresner, M., & Yao, Y. (2014). Beyond information sharing: An sManagement, 23(5), 817-828. [12] Duray, R., Ward, P.T., Milligan, G.W., Berry, W.L., 2000. Approaches to mass customization: configurations and empirical validation. Journal of Operations Management 18 (6), 605–625. [13] Ebrahim‐Khanjari, N., Hopp, W., & Iravani, S. M. (2012). Trust and information sharing in supply chains. Production and Operations Management, 21(3), 444-464. [14] Frohlich, M. T., & Westbrook, R. (2001). Arcs of integration: an international study of supply chain strategies. Journal of operations management, 19(2), 185-200. [15] Fu, X., Dong, M., Liu, S., & Han, G. (2016). Trust based decisions in supply chains with an agent. Decision Support Systems, 82, 35-46. [16] Gavirneni, S., R. Kapuscinski, S. Tayur. 1999. Value of information in capacitated supply chains. Management Sci. 45(1) 16-24. [17] Gümüş, M. (2014). With or without forecast sharing: Competition and credibility under information asymmetry. Production and Operations Management, 23(10), 1732-1747. [18] Hayes, R.H., Wheelwright, S.C., 1979. Link manufacturing and product life cycles. Harvard Business Review 57 (1), 133–140 [19] Hill, T., 1994. Manufacturing Strategy: Text and Cases, second ed. Irwin, Blue Ridge, IL. [20] Hsu, C. C., Kannan, V. R., Tan, K. C., & Keong Leong, G. (2008). Information sharing, buyer-supplier relationships, and firm performance: a multi-region analysis. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 38(4), 296-310. [21] Hyndman, K., Kraiselburd, S., & Watson, N. (2013). Aligning capacity decisions in supply chains when demand forecasts are private information: Theory and experiment. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 15(1), 102-117. [22] Inderfurth, K., Sadrieh, A., & Voigt, G. (2013). The impact of information sharing on supply chain performance under asymmetric information. Production and Operations Management, 22(2), 410-425. [23] Jacquemin, A. P., & Berry, C. H. (1979). Entropy measure of diversification and corporate growth. The journal of industrial economics, 359-369. [24] Jiang, B., Tian, L., Xu, Y., & Zhang, F. (2016). To share or not to share: Demand forecast sharing in a distribution channel. Marketing Science, 35(5), 800-809. [25] Lee, H., & Whang, S. (1998). Information Sharing in a Supply Chain, Research Paper No. 1549, Graduate School of Business. [26] Lee, H. L., & Whang, S. (2000). Information sharing in a supply chain. International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 1(1), 79-93. [27] Lee, H. L., So, K. C., & Tang, C. S. (2000). The value of information sharing in a two-level supply chain. Management science, 46(5), 626-643. [28] Li, L. (2002). Information sharing in a supply chain with horizontal competition. Management Science, 48(9), 1196-1212. [29] Li, T., & Zhang, H. (2015). Information sharing in a supply chain with a make-to-stock manufacturer. Omega, 50, 115-125. [30] Metters, R. (1997). Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Journal of operations management, 15(2), 89-100. [31] Mishra, B. K., Raghunathan, S., & Yue, X. (2009). Demand forecast sharing in supply chains. Production and Operations Management, 18(2), 152-166. [32] Oh, S., & Özer, Ö. (2013). Mechanism design for capacity planning under dynamic evolutions of asymmetric demand forecasts. Management Science, 59(4), 987-1007. [33] Özer, Ö., & Wei, W. (2006). Strategic commitments for an optimal capacity decision under asymmetric forecast information. Management science, 52(8), 1238-1257. [34] Özer, Ö., Zheng, Y., & Chen, K. Y. (2011). Trust in forecast information sharing. Management Science, 57(6), 1111-1137. [35] Palepu, K. (1985). Diversification strategy, profit performance and the entropy measure. Strategic management journal, 6(3), 239-255. [36] Prajogo, D., & Olhager, J. (2012). Supply chain integration and performance: The effects of long-term relationships, information technology and sharing, and logistics integration. International Journal of Production Economics, 135(1), 514-522. [37] Safizadeh, M.H., Ritzman, L.P., Sharma, D., Wood, C., 1996. An empirical analysis of the product–process matrix. Management Science 42 (11), 1576–1591. [38] Sheffi, Y. (2002, October). The value of CPFR. In Proceedings of RIRL Conference, Lisboa. [39] Småros, J. (2007). Forecasting collaboration in the European grocery sector: Observations from a case study. Journal of Operations Management, 25(3), 702-716. [40] Spiliotopoulou, E., Donohue, K., & Gürbüz, M. Ç. (2016). Information reliability in supply chains: the case of multiple retailers. Production and Operations Management, 25(3), 548-567. [41] Stank, T. P., Keller, S. B., & Daugherty, P. J. (2001). Supply chain collaboration and logistical service performance. Journal of Business logistics, 22(1), 29-48. [42] Terwiesch, C., Ren, Z. J., Ho, T. H., & Cohen, M. A. (2005). An empirical analysis of forecast sharing in the semiconductor equipment supply chain. Management science, 51(2), 208-220. [43] Vereecke, A., & Muylle, S. (2006). Performance improvement through supply chain collaboration in Europe. International journal of operations & production management, 26(11), 1176-1198. [44] Voigt, G., & Inderfurth, K. (2012). Supply chain coordination with information sharing in the presence of trust and trustworthiness. Iie Transactions, 44(8), 637-654. [45] Yue, X., & Liu, J. (2006). Demand forecast sharing in a dual-channel supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research, 174(1), 646-667. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理學系
105356005資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105356005 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 張欣綠<br>周彥君 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chang, Hsin-Lu<br>Chou, Yen-Chun en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊惠晴 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Hui-Ching en_US dc.creator (作者) 楊惠晴 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yang, Hui-Ching en_US dc.date (日期) 2018 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Oct-2018 12:06:30 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Oct-2018 12:06:30 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Oct-2018 12:06:30 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105356005 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/120234 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 資訊管理學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 105356005 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) We cooperate with a leading semiconductor distributor, and find out they make replenishment decisions based on past orders instead of forecasts from their customers. We therefore study the role of forecast sharing in semiconductor distributor, and examine if forecast information is relevant to inventory and sale management of semiconductor distributors. We also examine how external and internal complexity which are specified as forecast fluctuation and hubs’ order diversification moderate the relationships among forecasts, inventory and sales. We collect orders and forecasts of one main customer of W company, and the associated inventory records prepared by W company from 2016/10 to 2017/10. The data shows a hierarchical relationship: orders of a component belonged to a storage hub. We discover that forecast information is relevant to the semiconductor distributor’s inventories and sales. Our findings also show that forecast signal decreases by forecast fluctuation and hubs’ order diversification which give semiconductor distributors some management implications. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Table of Content i List of Figures ii List of Tables iii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 5 2.1 Forecast sharing between manufacturers and retailers 5 2.2 The credibility of forecast sharing 7 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH FRAMEWORK 11 3.1 Forecast sharing, inventory and sales. 13 3.2 The moderating effect of forecast fluctuation on forecast sharing. 14 3.3 The moderating effect of order diversification on forecast sharing. 16 CHAPTER 4: DATA AND MEASUREMENT 17 4.1 Company Backgroud 17 4.2 Data 18 CHAPTER 5: ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 24 5.1 Models 24 5.2 Estimation Results 26 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION 35 REFERENCE 38 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105356005 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測分享 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 供應鏈管理 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 半導體產業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecast sharing en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Supply chain management en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Semiconductor industry en_US dc.title (題名) 預測資訊分享與半導體零件通路商績效 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Role of Forecast Sharing in Semiconductor Distributor Performance en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] Ali, M. M., Boylan, J. E., & Syntetos, A. A. (2012). Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 830-841. [2] Angulo, A., Nachtmann, H., & Waller, M. A. (2004). Supply chain information sharing in a vendor managed inventory partnership. Journal of business logistics, 25(1), 101-120. [3] Aviv, Y., & Federgruen, A. (1998). The operational benefits of information sharing and vendor managed inventory (VMI) programs. Olin School of Business Working Paper. [4] Aviv, Y. (2001). The effect of collaborative forecasting on supply chain performance. Management science, 47(10), 1326-1343. [5] Bourland, K. E., Powell, S. G., & Pyke, D. F. (1996). Exploiting timely demand information to reduce inventories. European journal of operational research, 92(2), 239-253. [6] Bozarth, C. C., Warsing, D. P., Flynn, B. B., & Flynn, E. J. (2009). The impact of supply chain complexity on manufacturing plant performance. Journal of Operations Management, 27(1), 78-93. [7] Cachon, G. P., & Fisher, M. (2000). Supply chain inventory management and the value of shared information. Management science, 46(8), 1032-1048. [8] Cachon, G. P., & Lariviere, M. A. (2001). Contracting to assure supply: How to share demand forecasts in a supply chain. Management science, 47(5), 629-646. [9] Carr, A. S., & Kaynak, H. (2007). Communication methods, information sharing, supplier development and performance: an empirical study of their relationships. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 27(4), 346-370. [10] Cattani, K., & Hausman, W. (2000). Why are forecast updates often disappointing?. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2(2), 119-127. [11] Dong, Y., Dresner, M., & Yao, Y. (2014). Beyond information sharing: An sManagement, 23(5), 817-828. [12] Duray, R., Ward, P.T., Milligan, G.W., Berry, W.L., 2000. Approaches to mass customization: configurations and empirical validation. Journal of Operations Management 18 (6), 605–625. [13] Ebrahim‐Khanjari, N., Hopp, W., & Iravani, S. M. (2012). Trust and information sharing in supply chains. Production and Operations Management, 21(3), 444-464. [14] Frohlich, M. T., & Westbrook, R. (2001). Arcs of integration: an international study of supply chain strategies. Journal of operations management, 19(2), 185-200. [15] Fu, X., Dong, M., Liu, S., & Han, G. (2016). Trust based decisions in supply chains with an agent. Decision Support Systems, 82, 35-46. [16] Gavirneni, S., R. Kapuscinski, S. Tayur. 1999. Value of information in capacitated supply chains. Management Sci. 45(1) 16-24. [17] Gümüş, M. (2014). With or without forecast sharing: Competition and credibility under information asymmetry. Production and Operations Management, 23(10), 1732-1747. [18] Hayes, R.H., Wheelwright, S.C., 1979. Link manufacturing and product life cycles. Harvard Business Review 57 (1), 133–140 [19] Hill, T., 1994. Manufacturing Strategy: Text and Cases, second ed. Irwin, Blue Ridge, IL. [20] Hsu, C. C., Kannan, V. R., Tan, K. C., & Keong Leong, G. (2008). Information sharing, buyer-supplier relationships, and firm performance: a multi-region analysis. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 38(4), 296-310. [21] Hyndman, K., Kraiselburd, S., & Watson, N. (2013). Aligning capacity decisions in supply chains when demand forecasts are private information: Theory and experiment. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 15(1), 102-117. [22] Inderfurth, K., Sadrieh, A., & Voigt, G. (2013). The impact of information sharing on supply chain performance under asymmetric information. Production and Operations Management, 22(2), 410-425. [23] Jacquemin, A. P., & Berry, C. H. (1979). Entropy measure of diversification and corporate growth. The journal of industrial economics, 359-369. [24] Jiang, B., Tian, L., Xu, Y., & Zhang, F. (2016). To share or not to share: Demand forecast sharing in a distribution channel. Marketing Science, 35(5), 800-809. [25] Lee, H., & Whang, S. (1998). Information Sharing in a Supply Chain, Research Paper No. 1549, Graduate School of Business. [26] Lee, H. L., & Whang, S. (2000). Information sharing in a supply chain. International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 1(1), 79-93. [27] Lee, H. L., So, K. C., & Tang, C. S. (2000). The value of information sharing in a two-level supply chain. Management science, 46(5), 626-643. [28] Li, L. (2002). Information sharing in a supply chain with horizontal competition. Management Science, 48(9), 1196-1212. [29] Li, T., & Zhang, H. (2015). Information sharing in a supply chain with a make-to-stock manufacturer. Omega, 50, 115-125. [30] Metters, R. (1997). Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Journal of operations management, 15(2), 89-100. [31] Mishra, B. K., Raghunathan, S., & Yue, X. (2009). Demand forecast sharing in supply chains. Production and Operations Management, 18(2), 152-166. [32] Oh, S., & Özer, Ö. (2013). Mechanism design for capacity planning under dynamic evolutions of asymmetric demand forecasts. Management Science, 59(4), 987-1007. [33] Özer, Ö., & Wei, W. (2006). Strategic commitments for an optimal capacity decision under asymmetric forecast information. Management science, 52(8), 1238-1257. [34] Özer, Ö., Zheng, Y., & Chen, K. Y. (2011). Trust in forecast information sharing. Management Science, 57(6), 1111-1137. [35] Palepu, K. (1985). Diversification strategy, profit performance and the entropy measure. Strategic management journal, 6(3), 239-255. [36] Prajogo, D., & Olhager, J. (2012). Supply chain integration and performance: The effects of long-term relationships, information technology and sharing, and logistics integration. International Journal of Production Economics, 135(1), 514-522. [37] Safizadeh, M.H., Ritzman, L.P., Sharma, D., Wood, C., 1996. An empirical analysis of the product–process matrix. Management Science 42 (11), 1576–1591. [38] Sheffi, Y. (2002, October). The value of CPFR. In Proceedings of RIRL Conference, Lisboa. [39] Småros, J. (2007). Forecasting collaboration in the European grocery sector: Observations from a case study. Journal of Operations Management, 25(3), 702-716. [40] Spiliotopoulou, E., Donohue, K., & Gürbüz, M. Ç. (2016). Information reliability in supply chains: the case of multiple retailers. Production and Operations Management, 25(3), 548-567. [41] Stank, T. P., Keller, S. B., & Daugherty, P. J. (2001). Supply chain collaboration and logistical service performance. Journal of Business logistics, 22(1), 29-48. [42] Terwiesch, C., Ren, Z. J., Ho, T. H., & Cohen, M. A. (2005). An empirical analysis of forecast sharing in the semiconductor equipment supply chain. Management science, 51(2), 208-220. [43] Vereecke, A., & Muylle, S. (2006). Performance improvement through supply chain collaboration in Europe. International journal of operations & production management, 26(11), 1176-1198. [44] Voigt, G., & Inderfurth, K. (2012). Supply chain coordination with information sharing in the presence of trust and trustworthiness. Iie Transactions, 44(8), 637-654. [45] Yue, X., & Liu, J. (2006). Demand forecast sharing in a dual-channel supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research, 174(1), 646-667. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MIS.028.2018.A05 en_US
