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題名 軟體專案承諾升級的功能性磁振造影研究
Escalation of Commitment in Software Projects: An fMRI Study
作者 柯典佑
Ke, Dian-You
貢獻者 梁定澎<br>周彥君
Liang, Ting-Peng<br>Chou, Yen-Chun
柯典佑
Ke, Dian-You
關鍵詞 軟體專案管理
承諾升級
功能性磁振造影
訊息框架
訊息訴求
決策機制
Software project management
Escalation of commitment
Functional magnetic resonance imaging
Message framing
Persuasion appealing
Decision mechanism
日期 2018
上傳時間 1-Oct-2018 12:06:33 (UTC+8)
摘要 決策制定者在管理軟體專案開發時,經常面臨到專案是否依照預計進度開發,投入的花費是否合理,是否能在要求期限內將專案完成等問題。而當決策制定者接收到許多負面回饋,卻仍然繼續投入資源到該專案,讓專案超過原本的預算,此一現象就稱之為承諾升級。
     承諾升級是企業不樂見卻又難以避免的現象,發生承諾升級時,會造成更多資源的投入,然而繼續投入資源的專案並不一定會成功,最後若仍然失敗,則會造成更多資源的浪費。
     本研究以「訊息框架」和「訊息訴求」為因子,進行實驗設計。採用功能性磁振造影的方式進行實驗,研究受測者在不同問項描述下,大腦的反應資料。
     研究發現可以歸納為以下幾點:
     1.以認知神經科學的方式,證實軟體專案的承諾升級確實與框架效應有關,在正向框架時,較容易發生承諾升級。
     2.驗證決策機制對承諾升級之影響,當決策者使用直覺情緒做決策時,較容易發生承諾升級;而當受測者經過推理思考後才做出判斷,較不會發生承諾升級。
     3.發現訊息框架對於決策者之影響,正向框架會使得決策者直覺情緒的腦區產生較多活化;負向框架則較能引發決策者推理思考腦區的活化。
     4.如果想要避免承諾升級發生,可以透過訊息框架的操弄,將訊息以負面的方式描述給決策者知道,促使決策者推理思考的腦區產生較多的活化。當決策者是經過推理思考後才做出決定,選擇繼續專案的機率就會降低,因此能減少承諾升級的產生。
Decision makers often face many problems in software development, such as project delays or cost overrun, and so on. It is common when decision makers receive negative feedbacks, but they decide to keep investing more in the project resulting project over-budget. This phenomenon is called Escalation of Commitment.
     Escalation of Commitment could cause investment higher than the original plan. In many cases, project failure could costs much higher to the organization. There are factors that have been argued to affect the escalation of commitment. In this research, we investigate the effects of these factors with the functional MRI method. More specifically, this research focuses on two factors: “Message Framing” and “Persuasion Appealing” and an experiment was designed and conducted to collect and analyze brain reactions to different stimuli.
     Major research findings include the followings:
     1. Framing of messages has significant effect on the escalation of commitment. Positive framing has a much higher likelihood for the subject to escalate the prior decision.
     2. Escalation of commitment is related to the decision mechanism used by the subject. When persuasion messages activate intuitive mode in the decision process, the likelihood of escalate decisions is higher than when persuasion messages activate the logical thinking mode.
     3. Framing effect is also related to the decision modes. Positive framing is more likely to activate the intuition mode while negative framing is more likely to activate the thinking mode.
     4. In order to avoid the escalation of decision, it’s better to present the situation in a negative frame and also provide more information that can activate more logical thinking.
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     二、網際網路
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理學系
105356010
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105356010
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 梁定澎<br>周彥君zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Liang, Ting-Peng<br>Chou, Yen-Chunen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 柯典佑zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ke, Dian-Youen_US
dc.creator (作者) 柯典佑zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Ke, Dian-Youen_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Oct-2018 12:06:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Oct-2018 12:06:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Oct-2018 12:06:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105356010en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/120235-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 105356010zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 決策制定者在管理軟體專案開發時,經常面臨到專案是否依照預計進度開發,投入的花費是否合理,是否能在要求期限內將專案完成等問題。而當決策制定者接收到許多負面回饋,卻仍然繼續投入資源到該專案,讓專案超過原本的預算,此一現象就稱之為承諾升級。
     承諾升級是企業不樂見卻又難以避免的現象,發生承諾升級時,會造成更多資源的投入,然而繼續投入資源的專案並不一定會成功,最後若仍然失敗,則會造成更多資源的浪費。
     本研究以「訊息框架」和「訊息訴求」為因子,進行實驗設計。採用功能性磁振造影的方式進行實驗,研究受測者在不同問項描述下,大腦的反應資料。
     研究發現可以歸納為以下幾點:
     1.以認知神經科學的方式,證實軟體專案的承諾升級確實與框架效應有關,在正向框架時,較容易發生承諾升級。
     2.驗證決策機制對承諾升級之影響,當決策者使用直覺情緒做決策時,較容易發生承諾升級;而當受測者經過推理思考後才做出判斷,較不會發生承諾升級。
     3.發現訊息框架對於決策者之影響,正向框架會使得決策者直覺情緒的腦區產生較多活化;負向框架則較能引發決策者推理思考腦區的活化。
     4.如果想要避免承諾升級發生,可以透過訊息框架的操弄,將訊息以負面的方式描述給決策者知道,促使決策者推理思考的腦區產生較多的活化。當決策者是經過推理思考後才做出決定,選擇繼續專案的機率就會降低,因此能減少承諾升級的產生。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Decision makers often face many problems in software development, such as project delays or cost overrun, and so on. It is common when decision makers receive negative feedbacks, but they decide to keep investing more in the project resulting project over-budget. This phenomenon is called Escalation of Commitment.
     Escalation of Commitment could cause investment higher than the original plan. In many cases, project failure could costs much higher to the organization. There are factors that have been argued to affect the escalation of commitment. In this research, we investigate the effects of these factors with the functional MRI method. More specifically, this research focuses on two factors: “Message Framing” and “Persuasion Appealing” and an experiment was designed and conducted to collect and analyze brain reactions to different stimuli.
     Major research findings include the followings:
     1. Framing of messages has significant effect on the escalation of commitment. Positive framing has a much higher likelihood for the subject to escalate the prior decision.
     2. Escalation of commitment is related to the decision mechanism used by the subject. When persuasion messages activate intuitive mode in the decision process, the likelihood of escalate decisions is higher than when persuasion messages activate the logical thinking mode.
     3. Framing effect is also related to the decision modes. Positive framing is more likely to activate the intuition mode while negative framing is more likely to activate the thinking mode.
     4. In order to avoid the escalation of decision, it’s better to present the situation in a negative frame and also provide more information that can activate more logical thinking.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
     第一節 研究背景與動機 1
     第二節 研究目的 3
     第三節 研究流程 4
     第二章 文獻探討 5
     第一節 承諾升級 5
     第二節 自我辯護理論 9
     第三節 前景理論 10
     第四節 訊息訴求 12
     第五節 訊息框架 13
     第六節 認知神經科學 15
     第七節 訊息訴求與認知神經科學 16
     第八節 框架效應與認知神經科學 17
     第九節 決策與認知神經科學 18
     第三章 研究架構與方法 19
     第一節 研究架構與假說 19
     第二節 變數操作性定義 22
     第三節 實驗設計 23
     第四節 資料分析方法 35
     第四章 研究分析結果 36
     第一節 敘述性統計 36
     第二節 fMRI行為資料分析 38
     第三節 fMRI影像資料分析 42
     第五章 結論與建議 55
     第一節 研究結果 55
     第二節 研究貢獻 56
     第三節 研究限制 57
     第四節 未來研究方向 57
     參考文獻 58
     附錄一 IRB同意書 66
     附錄二 台灣心智科學腦造影中心實驗同意書 69
     附錄三 fMRI實驗示意圖 71
     附錄四 腦區活化座標以及叢集大小 79
     附錄五 腦區活化影像 91
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105356010en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 軟體專案管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 承諾升級zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 功能性磁振造影zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 訊息框架zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 訊息訴求zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策機制zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Software project managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Escalation of commitmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Functional magnetic resonance imagingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Message framingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Persuasion appealingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Decision mechanismen_US
dc.title (題名) 軟體專案承諾升級的功能性磁振造影研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Escalation of Commitment in Software Projects: An fMRI Studyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MIS.026.2018.A05en_US