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題名 從經濟奇蹟到外債危機 : 巴西經濟發展的政治經濟分析,1964-85
作者 吳文忠
貢獻者 何思因
吳文忠
日期 1997
上傳時間 5-Oct-2018 17:08:34 (UTC+8)
摘要 巴西，謎一樣的國家，其一年一度的嘉年華會常令我著迷，也常令我感到困惑。我著迷於其絢麗繽紛的遊行活動、熱力四射的森巴舞、狂歡達旦的不夜城…展現出來的活力，覺得巴西真是個充滿生命力的國度。但是，我也同時困惑於其人民不可思議的酗酒、當街縱火、殺人… 等瘋狂行徑，彷彿嘉年華會已經成為這個國家的法律假期，而人們似乎也都抱著「沒有明天」的絕望心態，藉著極度瘋狂的行為來麻痺自己。
我試著解謎。我發現政治與經濟的紊亂實為病因。巴西是開發中國家政經發展的失敗個案，從一九六四年軍政府上台以來巴西人民的生活是與長達二十二年之久的高壓威權統治、一連串的政治貪污醜聞、脫韁野馬般的惡性通貨膨脹率、以及天文數字般的鉅額外債共存；在這些問題似乎解決無望的情況下，無怪乎人民會對社會現狀產生消極的絕望心態。嘉年華會正好提供人們一個宣洩情緒的管道，使他們得以藉著極度放縱來遺忘現實生活的種種苦痛與無奈。
導致今日巴西政經紊亂的原因，係根植於其歷史的發展脈絡裡。一九六四年至一九八五年這段軍人威權統治期間尤其是關鍵的年代。本文採取政治經濟學的觀點，分別從國際體系、國家（政府）、社會、與個人意識形態等四個分析層次，探討影響巴西在這段期間內經濟發展的各種因素，試圖對巴西這個謎一樣國家的政經發展獲得更深的了解。
本篇論文得以完成，首先要感謝的是指導教授何思因老師，於研究所授課及論文撰寫期間在研究方法及觀念上的啟發。他的豐富學養、敏銳清晰的分析、以及從不吝嗇的鼓勵，使我在一次又一次的彷徨困頓中重新找到方向，燃起鬥志。其次要感謝鄧中堅老師及徐振國老師於口試時所提諸多寶貴意見，使本論文增色不少。此外，特別要感謝黃德福老師在研究所講授的「政治經濟學專題」與「政治衝突研究」兩門課，使我受益良多。
在蒐集資料期間，感謝中鋼工會黃一中秘書、中石化工會邵克卿常務及其他所有相關人員協助提供資料。尤其要感謝中鋼工會團隊，在將近四天的相處中，不但包涵我的叨擾，更如同兄姐般的照顧我這個異鄉客；你們的熱情與誠懇，使我永難忘懷。雖然最後的論文架構已與最初的構想大相逕庭，仍感謝你們的協助！
最後要感謝我摯愛的家人。爸、媽、諸位兄嫂多年來的養育與手足之情，是我今日能夠振翅高飛的原動力。女友淑娟蕙質蘭心，在日常生活上給我無微不至的照顧以及精神上的鼓勵，這份支持與信任，讓我無憂無慮地順利完成研究所學業。
謹以本論文獻給求學過程中所有曾經幫助過我的親人、師長與朋友
中華民國八十六年七月八日 於新店
參考文獻 中文參考書目
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何思因，1994，《美國貿易政治》。台北：時英出版社。
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林銘泉，1991，《巴西軍人威權政體之研究：1964-1985》。淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所碩士論文。
姜南揚，1995，《台灣大轉型--40年政改之謎》，台北：克寧出版社。
原田和明 著，霍士富 譯，1991，《透析美國經濟》。台北：書泉出版社。
張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏合著，1991a，《經濟學：理論與實際下冊》。台北：雙葉書廊。
張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏合著，1991b，《經濟學：理論與實際上冊》。台北：雙葉書廊。
陳琳琳，1992，《巴西經濟發展與多國性企業關係之研究》。台北：淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所碩士論文。
彭懷恩，1995，《台灣發展的政治經濟分析》。台北：風雲論壇出版社。
蕭新煌 編，1991，《低度發展與發展》。台北：巨流圖書公司。
龐君豪，1995，《巴西民主化過程之研究》。台北：政治大學外交研究所碩士論文。

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------ 1986. Politics in Brazil:1930-1964. New York: Oxford University Press.
Soper, J. Christopher. 1994. “Political Structures and Interest Group Activism: A Comparison of the British and American Pro-Life Movements.” The Social Science Journal 31 (3): 319-334.
Stallings, Barbara.1990. “The Role of Foreign Capital in Economic Development.” in Gary Gereffi and Donald L. Wyman., eds., Manufacturing Miracles: Paths of Industrialization in Latin America and East Asia. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press.
------ 1992. “International Influence on Economic Policy: Debt, Stabilization, and Structural Reform.” in Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, eds., The Politics of Economic Adjustment: International Constraints, Distributive Conflicts, and the State. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Tarrow, Sidney. 1988. “National Politics and Collective Action.” Annual Review of Sociology 14: 421-440.
Taylor, Lance. 1997. “Editorial: The Revival of the Liberal Creed-- the IMF and the World Bank in a Globalized Economy.” World Development 25 (2): 145-152.
Tyler, William G. 1978. “Technical Efficiency and Ownership Characteristics of Manufacturing Firms in a Developing Countries: A Brazilian Case Study.” Weltwirtschaftliches 114 (2): 360-379.
Williamson, John. 1990. “What Washington Means by Policy Reform.” in John Williamson, ed., Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened? Washington, D.C.: Institute of International Economics.
------ 1993. “Democracy and the ‘Washington Consensus’.” World Development 21 (August): 1329-1336.
Willis, Eliza J. 1995. “Explaining Bureaucratic Independence in Brazil: The Experience of the National Economic Development Bank.” Journal of Latin American Studies 27 (October): 625-661.
World Bank. 1988. World Debt Tables: vol. 1, Analysis and Summary Tables. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
政治研究所
85
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCV8402012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 何思因
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳文忠
dc.creator (作者) 吳文忠
dc.date (日期) 1997
dc.date.accessioned 5-Oct-2018 17:08:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Oct-2018 17:08:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Oct-2018 17:08:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/120396-
dc.description (描述) 碩士
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學
dc.description (描述) 政治研究所
dc.description (描述) 85
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 巴西，謎一樣的國家，其一年一度的嘉年華會常令我著迷，也常令我感到困惑。我著迷於其絢麗繽紛的遊行活動、熱力四射的森巴舞、狂歡達旦的不夜城…展現出來的活力，覺得巴西真是個充滿生命力的國度。但是，我也同時困惑於其人民不可思議的酗酒、當街縱火、殺人… 等瘋狂行徑，彷彿嘉年華會已經成為這個國家的法律假期，而人們似乎也都抱著「沒有明天」的絕望心態，藉著極度瘋狂的行為來麻痺自己。
我試著解謎。我發現政治與經濟的紊亂實為病因。巴西是開發中國家政經發展的失敗個案，從一九六四年軍政府上台以來巴西人民的生活是與長達二十二年之久的高壓威權統治、一連串的政治貪污醜聞、脫韁野馬般的惡性通貨膨脹率、以及天文數字般的鉅額外債共存；在這些問題似乎解決無望的情況下，無怪乎人民會對社會現狀產生消極的絕望心態。嘉年華會正好提供人們一個宣洩情緒的管道，使他們得以藉著極度放縱來遺忘現實生活的種種苦痛與無奈。
導致今日巴西政經紊亂的原因，係根植於其歷史的發展脈絡裡。一九六四年至一九八五年這段軍人威權統治期間尤其是關鍵的年代。本文採取政治經濟學的觀點，分別從國際體系、國家（政府）、社會、與個人意識形態等四個分析層次，探討影響巴西在這段期間內經濟發展的各種因素，試圖對巴西這個謎一樣國家的政經發展獲得更深的了解。
本篇論文得以完成，首先要感謝的是指導教授何思因老師，於研究所授課及論文撰寫期間在研究方法及觀念上的啟發。他的豐富學養、敏銳清晰的分析、以及從不吝嗇的鼓勵，使我在一次又一次的彷徨困頓中重新找到方向，燃起鬥志。其次要感謝鄧中堅老師及徐振國老師於口試時所提諸多寶貴意見，使本論文增色不少。此外，特別要感謝黃德福老師在研究所講授的「政治經濟學專題」與「政治衝突研究」兩門課，使我受益良多。
在蒐集資料期間，感謝中鋼工會黃一中秘書、中石化工會邵克卿常務及其他所有相關人員協助提供資料。尤其要感謝中鋼工會團隊，在將近四天的相處中，不但包涵我的叨擾，更如同兄姐般的照顧我這個異鄉客；你們的熱情與誠懇，使我永難忘懷。雖然最後的論文架構已與最初的構想大相逕庭，仍感謝你們的協助！
最後要感謝我摯愛的家人。爸、媽、諸位兄嫂多年來的養育與手足之情，是我今日能夠振翅高飛的原動力。女友淑娟蕙質蘭心，在日常生活上給我無微不至的照顧以及精神上的鼓勵，這份支持與信任，讓我無憂無慮地順利完成研究所學業。
謹以本論文獻給求學過程中所有曾經幫助過我的親人、師長與朋友
中華民國八十六年七月八日 於新店
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論1
第一節 基本研究取向1
第二節 1930-1964 年巴西的經濟調整6
第三節 1964-1979 年巴西的經濟調整12
第四節 1979-1985 年巴西的經濟調整19
第五節 結論21
第二章 巴西經濟發展的解釋架構：政治經濟學途徑22
第一節 經濟發展：成長、危機與調整22
第二節 經濟發展策略類型：「內部導向」vs.「外部導向」23
第三節 經濟調整政策類型：「正統」vs.「非正統」26
第四節 經濟發展的政治經濟學：國際與國內環境的互動30
第五節 結論36
第三章 國際環境：國際金融趨勢、外債危機與巴西的經濟發展37
第一節 外資與巴西的經濟發展：概論37
第二節 國際石油危機與油元再回流（1973-1982）43
第三節 工業國家的總體經濟政策與國際外債危機的形成：以美國為例48
第四節 結論55
第四章 國內環境：制度、意識型態、產業政策與巴西的經濟發展57
第一節 巴西的產業政策與產業結構：概論57
第二節 「三邊聯盟」的合作與衝突60
第三節 國家資本主義：國家在經濟發展中的角色62
第四節 結論64
第五章 政策反應：利益團體的政治結盟與巴西的民主化65
第一節 利益團體的競租與結盟65
第二節 社會運動與政治機會結構67
第三節 巴西的經濟發展與政治民主化：結盟途徑觀點70
第四節 結論75
第六章 總結77
參考書目80
附錄一、巴西歷任總統與其主要的經濟幕僚（1930-85）90
圖表目次
表1-1：巴西的國內生產毛額成長率與通貨膨脹率（1964-84）2
表1-2：巴西的個人所得分配3
表1-3：巴西經濟發展的四個階段4
表1-4：巴西工業與貿易結構的變化（1929-47）8
表1-5：巴西的經濟成長率、通貨膨脹率與外債（1956-61）11
表1-6：直接外資在巴西的流動（1947-61）11
表1-7：巴西十五個主要產業部門的生產與出口成長率（1964-74）16
表1-8：巴西的現金帳（current account , 1964-85）17
表1-9：巴西的出口、進口與貿易係數（1964-84）17
表1-10：巴西都市地區勞工社會運動次數統計（1978-85）21
圖2-1：經濟發展的概念23
表2-1：經濟發展策略類型的連續光譜24
表2-2：巴西各階段的經濟發展策略與調整政策（1964-85）29
圖2-2：經濟發展的解釋架構31
表3-1：外資占巴西國內總儲蓄百分比（1964-82）38
圖3-1：巴西長期淨外資的類型（1961-86）39
表3-2：巴西長期淨外資的類型（1961-86）39
表3-3：巴西的外債及其組成（1964-83）40
表3-4：巴西外債的利率種類組成（1983-85）41
表3-5：巴西的外債（1973-85）41
表3-6：巴西外國直接投資（與再投資）的來源國42
圖3-2：巴西長期淨外資的來源國（1971-86）42
表3-7：主要石油輸出國家、開發中國家、與工業國家的現金帳（1973-85 )44
表3-8：非產油開發中國家由政府保證的長期外債（1973-79）46
表3-9：國際銀行對非產油開發中國家的貸款（1978-82）47
圖3-3：主要工業國家的年通貨膨脹率（1973-85）49
圖3-4：主要工業國家的年貨幣成長率（1973-85）50
表3-10：國際利率與非產油開發中國家的外債（1973-85）51
圖3-5：國際利率與非產油開發中國家的外債（1973-85）52
圖3-6：美元的有效匯率（1970-86）54
表3-11：開發中國家的實質匯率（1978-84）54
表3-12：美國的貿易收支（1978-85）55
表4-1：巴西產業類型的轉變（1973-84）58
表4-2：巴西主要的工業出口品（1985）58
表4-3：跨國公司在巴西的淨資產與銷售量的市場占有率（1980）59
表4-4：巴西前五十大企業的市場占有率結構（1983）59
表4-5：巴西前五十大企業的產業總體集中程度（1983）59
表4-6：巴西的非國有化指標（1961-73）61
表5-1：巴西的政府支出、通貨膨脹率與利率（1974-85）72
表5-2：巴西一九八二年選舉結果73
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dc.format.mimetype text/html-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCV8402012
dc.title (題名) 從經濟奇蹟到外債危機 : 巴西經濟發展的政治經濟分析,1964-85
dc.type (資料類型) thesis
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考書目
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王容君，1991，〈巴西的民主化〉，問題與研究，第三十卷第五期。
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何思因，1994，《美國貿易政治》。台北：時英出版社。
周陽山，1992，《學術與政治的對話--憲政與民主》。台北：正中書局。
林銘泉，1991，《巴西軍人威權政體之研究：1964-1985》。淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所碩士論文。
姜南揚，1995，《台灣大轉型--40年政改之謎》，台北：克寧出版社。
原田和明 著，霍士富 譯，1991，《透析美國經濟》。台北：書泉出版社。
張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏合著，1991a，《經濟學：理論與實際下冊》。台北：雙葉書廊。
張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏合著，1991b，《經濟學：理論與實際上冊》。台北：雙葉書廊。
陳琳琳，1992，《巴西經濟發展與多國性企業關係之研究》。台北：淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所碩士論文。
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蕭新煌 編，1991，《低度發展與發展》。台北：巨流圖書公司。
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