Publications-Proceedings

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 Evaluating the inefficiency of CBOs budgetary forecasts
作者 荒井夏來
Natsuki Arai
貢獻者 國貿系
日期 2017-06
上傳時間 26-Nov-2018 17:14:56 (UTC+8)
摘要 The aim is to evaluate the efficiency of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) budgetary and economic forecasts and to investigate the causes of the inefficiency in its forecasts. While the efficiency is accepted for the CBO’s forecasts for outlays, it is strongly rejected for its revenue and economic forecasts. The conditional forecast evaluation suggests that efficiency is accepted once we control the differences in the underlying economic forecasts. By replacing the CBO’s underlying economic forecasts with another subjective forecast in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that this adjustment could achieve modest improvements in the accuracy of the CBO’s budgetary forecasts. Though the CBO tends to make positive forecast errors for the budget deficit, there is no definitive evidence for the asymmetry in its loss function.
關聯 The 1st International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (HKUST), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) Business School
EcoSta 2017, Parallel Session G, Friday 16.06.2017 10:20 - 12:25, EO0436
資料類型 conference
dc.contributor 國貿系-
dc.creator (作者) 荒井夏來zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Natsuki Araien_US
dc.date (日期) 2017-06-
dc.date.accessioned 26-Nov-2018 17:14:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 26-Nov-2018 17:14:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 26-Nov-2018 17:14:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/121081-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The aim is to evaluate the efficiency of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) budgetary and economic forecasts and to investigate the causes of the inefficiency in its forecasts. While the efficiency is accepted for the CBO’s forecasts for outlays, it is strongly rejected for its revenue and economic forecasts. The conditional forecast evaluation suggests that efficiency is accepted once we control the differences in the underlying economic forecasts. By replacing the CBO’s underlying economic forecasts with another subjective forecast in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that this adjustment could achieve modest improvements in the accuracy of the CBO’s budgetary forecasts. Though the CBO tends to make positive forecast errors for the budget deficit, there is no definitive evidence for the asymmetry in its loss function.en_US
dc.relation (關聯) The 1st International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (HKUST), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) Business School-
dc.relation (關聯) EcoSta 2017, Parallel Session G, Friday 16.06.2017 10:20 - 12:25, EO0436-
dc.title (題名) Evaluating the inefficiency of CBOs budgetary forecastsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) conference-