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題名 台灣實施全民基本所得之情境分析
Scenario Analysis of Implementing Universal Basic Income in Taiwan作者 何思賢
Ho, Si-Xian貢獻者 許志義<br>王儷玲
Hsu, Jyh-Yih<br>Wang, Li-Ling
何思賢
Ho, Si-Xian關鍵詞 全民基本所得
前瞻方法論
情境分析法
人工智慧
區塊鏈
奢侈財
正常財
劣等財
Universal basic income
Foresight methodology
Scenario analysis
Artificial intelligence
Blockchain
Luxury goods
Normal goods
Inferior goods日期 2018 上傳時間 23-Jan-2019 15:37:23 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著全球科技快速的進展，人工智慧技術將會導致未來產生大量 失業人口，而貧富差距的問題也會因而隨之擴大。準此，許多學者專 家倡議全民基本所得(Universal Basic Income, 以下簡稱 UBI)，視之為 未來有效解決社會問題的可行方案。故探討台灣是否能夠實施 UBI 乃是值得深入探討的議題。本研究旨在透過前瞻方法論之情境分析法，歸納出台灣實施 UBI 之情境。藉由 UBI 相關文獻的蒐集與彙整，從政策、經濟、社會、科 技四大面向分析影響實施 UBI 之重要因素，並依此建構專家學者問卷。 以瞭解專家學者對於台灣實施 UBI 之意見。本研究假設未來台灣實施 UBI 係透過實名制區塊鏈技術進行發放，發放額度為每個月大人 10,000 元、小孩 5,000 元。最後，依照專家填答問卷的結果歸納出台 灣未來 30 年內實施 UBI 的可能情境。根據研究之結果顯示，「只欠東風」此一情境為台灣實施 UBI 最可能面臨的情境。其情境條件為政策改革成功、科技進展順利、尌業意 願消極，表示人工智慧技術的進展在未來 30 年會臻於成熟，促使我國政府必頇 實施 UBI，作為失業人口的救濟方案。且能順利藉由稅收制度的改革籌措發放 UBI 的資金，並進一步改善我國現行的社會福利系統。然而，發放 UBI 可能導 致民眾的尌業意願下降，造成台灣的競爭力衰退的隱憂。本文建議政府將 UBI 的發放額度設在可以滿足民眾基本生活需求為原則， 包括大眾交通運輸、基本醫療保險及日常生活飲食等正常財。而名牌、美食、豪 宅、名車等奢侈財，仍需由民眾額外工作所賺取的收入來支付，以降低 UBI 造 成民眾尌業意願下降的可能性。此外，UBI 政策的推動步驟，宜先選擇相對貧窮 的特定地區詴辦，以瞭解名眾對於實施 UBI 的接受度，再針對 UBI 的方案內容 予以調整，最後，以推行 UBI 至全體國民為目標。
With the rapid development of global science and technology, artificial intelligence will lead to a large number of unemployed people in the future, and the gap between the rich and the poor will be enlarged accordingly. Therefore, many scholars and experts advocate Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a viable solution to social problems in the future. Hence, it is worth exploring whether Taiwan can implement UBI.The purpose of this study is to summarize the scenario of implementing UBI in Taiwan through Scenario analysis of Foresight methodology. Based on the collection and integration relevant literature of UBI, this paper analyzes the important factors which influence the implementation of UBI from four aspects including policy, economy, society ,science and technology. Through the questionnaire , we can understand the opinions of experts and scholars on the implementation of UBI in Taiwan. This study assumes that implementing UBI in Taiwan will be distributed through permissioned blockchain, with a quota of NT$10,000 per month for adults and NT$5,000 for children. Finally, the possible scenario of implementing UBI in Taiwan in the next 30 years will be summarized according to the results of the questionnaire.According to the results of the study, " Everything is ready except one thing is missing " is the most likely scenario for Taiwan to implement UBI. Its scenario conditions would be successful in science and technology and policy reform, employment willingness to negative. This scenario said the progress of the artificial intelligence into mature in the next 30 years, has prompted the Taiwan government must implement UBI, as unemployment relief program. Moreover, UBI funds smoothly through the reform of the tax system, and improve Taiwan`s current social welfare system. However, UBI may lead to a decline in the willingness of the public to work and a potential loss of competitiveness in Taiwan.This study suggests that the government should set the quota of UBI in accordance with the principle of meeting people`s basic living needs, including public transportation, basic medical insurance and daily diet. On the other hand, luxury wealth, such as brands, luxury houses and cars, still needs to be paid by people`s income from extra work, so as to reduce the possibility that UBI will reduce people`s employment intention. Moreover, UBI policy driven step, should be to choose the relatively poor certain areas as pilot program, in order to understand the acceptance of implementing UBI. Finally, aiming at implementing UBI to the nation.參考文獻 一、中文文獻王進和(2010)，探討電動車電池之發展趨勢-情境分析法之應用，國立高雄大學國 際高階經營管理碩士在職專班。台灣無條件基本收入協會(2017), 台灣無條件基本收入政策白皮書。余序江、許志義、陳澤義(1998)。科技管理導論:科技預測規劃。台灣:五南圖書出版公司。林宗弘(2017)，台灣民眾如何看待全民基本收入制度，思想第 34 期，頁 127-146。倪世傑(2017)，全民基本收入:希望還是幻影?，思想第 34 期，頁 173-197。柳宏遠(2011)，經濟全球化下台灣茶葉競爭之情境分析，國立中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所碩士論文。徐文章(2006)。前瞻方法論之研究比較，95 年度自行研究計畫成果報告。 行政院國家科學委員會。袁建中、張建清、邱泰帄(2004)，《科技管理-觀念與案例》，台北:聯經，頁 360。袁建中(2006) 技術前瞻(Foresight)先期研究 研究成果報告。許志義(2016)，區塊鏈技術之應用與展望，遠見華人精英論壇文章。菲力普・范・帕雷斯(2017)，給所有人的基本收入，思想第 34 期，頁 107-126。葉俊賢(2005)，以情境分析法探討 2030 年數位生活之行動通訊產品功能發展，國立交通大學管理學院碩士在職專班科技管理組。鄭孙軒(2010)，台灣資通訊產業發展策略研究:情境分析法之應用，國立中興大學資訊管理研究所碩士論文。廖美(2017)，全民基本收入是一種補償，思想第 34 期，頁 159-172。羅世輝、盧靜琦 (2005)，〈以情境規劃促進組織學習與策略變革:文獻回顧與評論〉，《2005 工研院創新與科技管理研討會》，新竹: 工業技術研究院， 頁 136-144。莊太量、荊浩(2016)，淺析澳門“現金分享計劃”弊端及對策，研究專論第四十三 號，香港中文大學全球經濟及金融研究所。二、英文文獻Alan L. P. (1991). Forecasting and Management of technology. Wiley Online Library Becker, H. S. (1983). Scenarios: A Tool of Growing Imporyance to Policy Analysts inGovernment and Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 23(2),95-120.Coates, J.F. (1985). Foresight in federal government policy making. Futures ResearchQuarterly, 1(1), 29-53.De Wispelaere, J., & Stirton, L. (2004). The many faces of universal basic income.The Political Quarterly, 75(3), 266-274.Daron, A. & Pascual, R. (2017). “The Race Between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment.Davala, S., Jhabvala, R., Mehta, K. & Standing, G. (2015). Basic Income: A Transformative Policy for India. Bloomsbury Academic.Du, W., Pruyt, E., Thissen, W. & Slootweg, J. G. (2008). An application of scenario analysis for long-term electricity distribution network development. 2008 First International Conference on Infrastructure Systems and Services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA), 1-6.Forget, E. L. Dylan, M., Tonya, S., Michael, C. Urban (2016). Pilot lessons: How to design a basic income pilot project for Ontario. Toronto: Mowat Centre.Forget, E. L. (2011). The town with no poverty: the health effects of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income Field Experiment. Canadian Public Policy 37(3) 283-305.Fitzpatrick, T. (1999). Freedom and Security: An Introduction to the Basic Income Debate. London: Macmillan Press.Gjoksi, N. S., M. & Berger, G. (2010). National Sustainable Development Strategies in Europe: Status Quo and Recent Developments. ESDN Quarterly Report September 2010.Grupp H. & Linstone H. A. (1999). National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 60, Issue 1, Pages 85-94.Haushofer, J., & Shapiro, J. (2016). The Short Term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: Experimental Evidence From Kenya. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1973-2042.Joy A. (2016). Universal Basic Income Could it be introduced in the UK?, The University of SheffieldJonathan N. M. (2001). Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task ManagersLiedtka, J. M. (1998). Linking strategic thinking with strategic planning, Strategy and Leadership 26(4): 30–35.Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in Science and Technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 7(2), 139–168.McEachron, N. B. & Yu, O. (1995). Comparson and Selection of Technology Forecasting Methodologies. Stanford Research Institute Report, Menlo Park, CA. Porter, M. E.(1985). Competitive Strategy : Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitor, New York: The Free Press.Raventós, D. (2007). Basic Income:The Material Conditions of Freedom. London: Pluto Press.Richard, P. (2015). Universal Basic Income and the Cost Objection: What are We Waiting For? World Economic ReviewRavallion, M. (2016). The Economics of Poverty: History, Measurement and Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Schoemaker, P.J.H. & van der Heijden, K. (1992). Integrating scenarios into strategic planning at royal dutch/shell. Planning Review, May–June, 41–46.Schjoedt, R. 2016). Ind a’s Bas c Income Experiment. Pathways’ Perspectives on Social Policy in International Development. 21.Standing, G. (2003). Minimum Income Schemes in EuropeStanding, G. (2005b). Why Basic Income is needed to Work. Rutgers Journal of Law & Urban Policy, 2(1): 91-101.Tseng, F. M. & Cheng, A. C. (2009). Combining scenario analysis with Delphi and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of the OLED TV market. 2009 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology, 2415–2425.The Economist. (2016). Universal Basic Incomes: Sighing for Paradise to Come. The Economist. (2017a). India Floats the Idea of a Universal Basic Income. Tobin, J. (1966) The Case for an Income Guarantee. Public Interest, 31-41.Tanner, M. (2015). The Pros and Cons of a Guaranteed National Income. Policy Analysis No. 773: Cato Institute.Van Parijs, P. (2001). A Basic Income for All. In P. Van Parijs, What`s Wrong with a Free Lunch? Boston: Beacon Press.Van Parijs, P. (2003). Basic Income: A Simple and Powerful Idea for 21st. Century. In Bruce Ackerman and PhilippeVan Parijs (eds.) Redesigning Distribution: Basic Income and Stakeholder Grants as Cornerstones for an Egalitarian Capitalism.Van Parijs, P. (2004). Basic Income:A Simple and Powerful Idea for the Twenty-first Century. Politics & Society, 7-39.Widerquist, K. and Sheahen, A. (2012). The United States: The Basic Income Guarantee- Past Experience, Current Proposals. In Murray M. and Pateman (eds). Basic Income Worldwide. Pp.11-32. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Widerquist, K., & Howard, M. W. (2012). Introduction: Success in Alaska. In K. Widerquist & M. W. Howard (Eds.), Alaska`s Permanent Fund Dividend:Examining its Suitability as a Model. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Yuan, Z., Marta, G., Enrique, V. Lz, Patrick, H. (2017), Universal Basic Income: A Working Paper in China三、中文網路資源平等生命基金會(2014)，國有化資源:重奪阿拉斯加州的公共資源。檢自 http://equallifechinese.pixnet.net/blog/post/110995673-宋至晟(2017)，「不勞而獲」的政治狂想 ? 如何理解無條件基本收入。檢自 https://www.twreporter.org/a/opinion-understand-basic-income杒佑興(2017)，芬蘭的無條件基本收入實驗簡介。檢自 https://www.ubiasia.org/home/zh/blog/2017/12/30/1150/為何有膽量夢想烏托邦?七問全民基本收入倡議者 Philippe van Parijs。檢自 https://theinitium.com/article/20171228-ubi-philippe-van-parijs/ 莊貿捷(2018)，無條件基本收入 打擊貧富差距。檢自 https://vision.udn.com/vision/story/12147/3176125張鐵志專欄:發給每個人同樣的基本收入，好嗎?檢自 https://tw.appledaily.com/new/realtime/20171223/1264551/乾隆來(2016)，瑞士躺領月薪公投 給全球的一堂課，今周刊 1016 期。檢自https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/80392/post/201606090037/楊芬瑩 (2016) 終結貧窮!加 6 拿大續推「保障基本收入」制。檢自 https://www.twreporter.org/a/canada-mincome-project楊安琪(2017)，對機器人課稅等於懲罰創新嗎?檢自 https://technews.tw/2017/04/25/robot-tax-and-innovation-penalty/藍立晴(2018)，芬蘭「無條件基本收入」計畫今年提前結束 研究人員嘆:實驗期太短，匯流新聞。檢自 https://cnews.com.tw/002180420a05/四、英文網路資源Catherine, C. (2017), What billionaires and business titans say about cash handouts in 2017.from https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/27/what-billionaires-say-about-universal-basic-income-in-2017.htmlDylan, M. (2018). The amazing true socialist miracle of the Alaska Permanent Fund.from https://www.vox.com/policy-and politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-studyJosh Ma t n 2016). SWITZERLAND: Sw ss Vote “No” on Bas c Income Referendum.from https://basicincome.org/news/2016/06/switzerland-swiss-vote-no-on-basic-income-ref erendum/Karla, l. (2017). Universal Basic Income Pilot Programs.from https://futurism.com/images/universal-basic-income-ubi-pilot-programs-around-th e-world/McKinsey Global Institute (2017) Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation .from https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Future%20of%20Organizations/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20 for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Report-Dec ember-6-2017.ashxPaul Harstad, Harstad Strategic Research(2017). Summary of FindingsE from a Survey of Alaska Voters on the PFD https://zh.scribd.com/document/352375988/ESP-Alaska-PFD-Phone-Survey-Exec utive-Summary-Spring-2017Vogelsang, M. (2010). Digitalization in Open Economies:Theory and Policy Implications. Wuppertal:Physica-Verlag. from https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/27/what-billionaires-say-about-universal-basic-in come-in-2017.htmlWorld inequality Lab (2017), World Inequality Report. from http://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-full-report-english.pdf 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
105258036資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258036 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 許志義<br>王儷玲 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hsu, Jyh-Yih<br>Wang, Li-Ling en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 何思賢 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ho, Si-Xian en_US dc.creator (作者) 何思賢 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Ho, Si-Xian en_US dc.date (日期) 2018 en_US dc.date.accessioned 23-Jan-2019 15:37:23 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 23-Jan-2019 15:37:23 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 23-Jan-2019 15:37:23 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105258036 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/122140 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 105258036 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著全球科技快速的進展，人工智慧技術將會導致未來產生大量 失業人口，而貧富差距的問題也會因而隨之擴大。準此，許多學者專 家倡議全民基本所得(Universal Basic Income, 以下簡稱 UBI)，視之為 未來有效解決社會問題的可行方案。故探討台灣是否能夠實施 UBI 乃是值得深入探討的議題。本研究旨在透過前瞻方法論之情境分析法，歸納出台灣實施 UBI 之情境。藉由 UBI 相關文獻的蒐集與彙整，從政策、經濟、社會、科 技四大面向分析影響實施 UBI 之重要因素，並依此建構專家學者問卷。 以瞭解專家學者對於台灣實施 UBI 之意見。本研究假設未來台灣實施 UBI 係透過實名制區塊鏈技術進行發放，發放額度為每個月大人 10,000 元、小孩 5,000 元。最後，依照專家填答問卷的結果歸納出台 灣未來 30 年內實施 UBI 的可能情境。根據研究之結果顯示，「只欠東風」此一情境為台灣實施 UBI 最可能面臨的情境。其情境條件為政策改革成功、科技進展順利、尌業意 願消極，表示人工智慧技術的進展在未來 30 年會臻於成熟，促使我國政府必頇 實施 UBI，作為失業人口的救濟方案。且能順利藉由稅收制度的改革籌措發放 UBI 的資金，並進一步改善我國現行的社會福利系統。然而，發放 UBI 可能導 致民眾的尌業意願下降，造成台灣的競爭力衰退的隱憂。本文建議政府將 UBI 的發放額度設在可以滿足民眾基本生活需求為原則， 包括大眾交通運輸、基本醫療保險及日常生活飲食等正常財。而名牌、美食、豪 宅、名車等奢侈財，仍需由民眾額外工作所賺取的收入來支付，以降低 UBI 造 成民眾尌業意願下降的可能性。此外，UBI 政策的推動步驟，宜先選擇相對貧窮 的特定地區詴辦，以瞭解名眾對於實施 UBI 的接受度，再針對 UBI 的方案內容 予以調整，最後，以推行 UBI 至全體國民為目標。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) With the rapid development of global science and technology, artificial intelligence will lead to a large number of unemployed people in the future, and the gap between the rich and the poor will be enlarged accordingly. Therefore, many scholars and experts advocate Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a viable solution to social problems in the future. Hence, it is worth exploring whether Taiwan can implement UBI.The purpose of this study is to summarize the scenario of implementing UBI in Taiwan through Scenario analysis of Foresight methodology. Based on the collection and integration relevant literature of UBI, this paper analyzes the important factors which influence the implementation of UBI from four aspects including policy, economy, society ,science and technology. Through the questionnaire , we can understand the opinions of experts and scholars on the implementation of UBI in Taiwan. This study assumes that implementing UBI in Taiwan will be distributed through permissioned blockchain, with a quota of NT$10,000 per month for adults and NT$5,000 for children. Finally, the possible scenario of implementing UBI in Taiwan in the next 30 years will be summarized according to the results of the questionnaire.According to the results of the study, " Everything is ready except one thing is missing " is the most likely scenario for Taiwan to implement UBI. Its scenario conditions would be successful in science and technology and policy reform, employment willingness to negative. This scenario said the progress of the artificial intelligence into mature in the next 30 years, has prompted the Taiwan government must implement UBI, as unemployment relief program. Moreover, UBI funds smoothly through the reform of the tax system, and improve Taiwan`s current social welfare system. However, UBI may lead to a decline in the willingness of the public to work and a potential loss of competitiveness in Taiwan.This study suggests that the government should set the quota of UBI in accordance with the principle of meeting people`s basic living needs, including public transportation, basic medical insurance and daily diet. On the other hand, luxury wealth, such as brands, luxury houses and cars, still needs to be paid by people`s income from extra work, so as to reduce the possibility that UBI will reduce people`s employment intention. Moreover, UBI policy driven step, should be to choose the relatively poor certain areas as pilot program, in order to understand the acceptance of implementing UBI. Finally, aiming at implementing UBI to the nation. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景 1第二節 研究動機 2第三節 研究目的 4第四節 研究架構與章節安排 4第二章 UBI 理論基礎及其文獻探討 6第一節 UBI 定義與相關文獻探討 6第二節 全球 UBI 實施概況 11第三節 影響實施 UBI 之重要因素 21第四節 本章小結 27第三章 研究方法與設計 28第一節 前瞻方法論 28第二節 情境分析法 33第三節 研究設計 38第四章 台灣實施 UBI 之情境分析 43第一節 確認決策焦點 44第二節 認定關鍵決策因素與驅動力量因素 45第三節 排序驅動力 48第四節 選擇不確定軸面 51第五節 選擇情境架構 52第六節 情境內容分析 53第五章 結論與建議 59第一節 研究結論 59第二節 後續研究建議 61參考文獻 62附錄、「台灣實施全民基本所得之情境分析」問卷內容 66 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1375874 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258036 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 全民基本所得 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 前瞻方法論 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 情境分析法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人工智慧 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區塊鏈 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 奢侈財 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 正常財 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 劣等財 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Universal basic income en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Foresight methodology en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Scenario analysis en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Artificial intelligence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Blockchain en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Luxury goods en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Normal goods en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Inferior goods en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣實施全民基本所得之情境分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Scenario Analysis of Implementing Universal Basic Income in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻王進和(2010)，探討電動車電池之發展趨勢-情境分析法之應用，國立高雄大學國 際高階經營管理碩士在職專班。台灣無條件基本收入協會(2017), 台灣無條件基本收入政策白皮書。余序江、許志義、陳澤義(1998)。科技管理導論:科技預測規劃。台灣:五南圖書出版公司。林宗弘(2017)，台灣民眾如何看待全民基本收入制度，思想第 34 期，頁 127-146。倪世傑(2017)，全民基本收入:希望還是幻影?，思想第 34 期，頁 173-197。柳宏遠(2011)，經濟全球化下台灣茶葉競爭之情境分析，國立中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所碩士論文。徐文章(2006)。前瞻方法論之研究比較，95 年度自行研究計畫成果報告。 行政院國家科學委員會。袁建中、張建清、邱泰帄(2004)，《科技管理-觀念與案例》，台北:聯經，頁 360。袁建中(2006) 技術前瞻(Foresight)先期研究 研究成果報告。許志義(2016)，區塊鏈技術之應用與展望，遠見華人精英論壇文章。菲力普・范・帕雷斯(2017)，給所有人的基本收入，思想第 34 期，頁 107-126。葉俊賢(2005)，以情境分析法探討 2030 年數位生活之行動通訊產品功能發展，國立交通大學管理學院碩士在職專班科技管理組。鄭孙軒(2010)，台灣資通訊產業發展策略研究:情境分析法之應用，國立中興大學資訊管理研究所碩士論文。廖美(2017)，全民基本收入是一種補償，思想第 34 期，頁 159-172。羅世輝、盧靜琦 (2005)，〈以情境規劃促進組織學習與策略變革:文獻回顧與評論〉，《2005 工研院創新與科技管理研討會》，新竹: 工業技術研究院， 頁 136-144。莊太量、荊浩(2016)，淺析澳門“現金分享計劃”弊端及對策，研究專論第四十三 號，香港中文大學全球經濟及金融研究所。二、英文文獻Alan L. 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