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題名 手機遊戲成長趨勢之研究-不同產業層級分析之異同
A Study of the Growth Trend of Mobile Games : the Analyses Based on Different Industrial Levels
作者 李嘉泰
Li, Jia-Tai
貢獻者 吳豐祥
Wu, Feng-Shang
李嘉泰
Li, Jia-Tai
關鍵詞 手機遊戲
成長趨勢
成長曲線
次產業
產品擴散
Mobile games
Growth trends
Growth curve
Meso level
Product diffusion model
日期 2019
上傳時間 12-二月-2019 15:59:26 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究主要探討手機遊戲之成長趨勢，手機遊戲是近十年來出現之產業，根據Newzoo的產業報告，其收益已經佔整體遊戲產業的50%以上，超越了電腦遊戲以及家用遊戲機，是不可忽視的一個新興產業。本研究以成長趨勢以及不同產業層次的觀點下去分析，將手機遊戲產業分為整體手機遊戲產業以及依照不同遊戲類型做區分的次產業，試圖回答以下研究問題：成長曲線是否能適用於手機遊戲產業成長趨勢之分析？整體產業與次產業之成長趨勢分析有何關聯性與差異性？
　　經過本研究分析，本研究認為選用Bass Model作為主要分析手機遊戲之模型，本研究藉由分析報告以及媒體報導，選出日系中資手機遊戲、MOBA手機遊戲、大逃殺手機遊戲這三大類型作為本研究之研究對象。在這三大類型依照綜合排名、下載量等篩選條件各挑出五款遊戲作為該類型之代表，各自將五款手機遊戲之下載量相加即成為該遊戲類型(次產業)，透過下載量與累積下載量經由二次回歸求出二次方程式，進而求出市場上限m、創新係數p、模仿係數q，並藉由這三種係數，計算出預測下載量與累積下載量，與實際資訊進行比對與分析。本研究發現以畫面風格作為特色之手機遊戲，其受到廣告媒體之影響較大；以玩法作為特色之手機遊戲，其受到口碑效應之影響比較大；受到官方影響之手機遊戲則無法預測。最後將這三種類型共15款之手機遊戲數據相加形成整體手機遊戲產業，並藉由相同的過程進行分析，本研究發現無法利用模型進行預測，會有模型失效的情形發生。
本研究之結論為以下三點，第一點為不同類型之手機遊戲，其成長曲線的型態亦有所不同；第二點為手機遊戲整體產業之成長趨勢會在不同階段分別受到不同次產業的影響；第三點為手機遊戲整體產業與其各次產業的成長趨勢呈現明顯差異。
關鍵字：手機遊戲、成長趨勢、成長曲線、次產業、產品擴散
This research focuses on the growth trend of mobile games. Mobile games are the industry that has emerged in the past ten years. According to Newzoo`s industry report, its revenue has accounted for more than 50% of the overall game industry. It surpasses computer games and home game consoles. This study analyzes the growth trend and the perspective of different industry levels. The mobile game industry is divided into the overall mobile game industry and the meso level industries that are differentiated according to different game types, try to answer the following research questions: Can the growth curve be applied to the growth of the mobile game industry? What is the correlation and difference between the analysis of the growth trend of the overall industry and the meso level industries?
After the analysis of this study, this study considers the Bass Model as the main model for analyzing mobile games. This study uses the analysis report and media reports to select three types of Japanese-style mobile games, MOBA mobile games, and Battle royale mobile games. The research object of this study. In these three types, according to the comprehensive ranking, download volume and other screening conditions, each of the five games is selected as the representative of the type, and each of the five mobile game downloads is added to become the game type (meso level industry), through the download amount. The quadratic equation is obtained by quadratic regression with the cumulative download amount, and then the market upper limit m, the innovation coefficient p, and the imitation coefficient q are obtained, and the predicted download amount and the cumulative download amount are calculated by the three coefficients, and the actual information is performed. Comparison and analysis. This study found that the mobile phone game featuring picture style is greatly influenced by the advertising media; the mobile game with the gameplay as its characteristic is greatly influenced by the word-of-mouth effect; the mobile game affected by the official is unpredictable. Finally, the data of these three types of mobile phone games are added to form the overall mobile game industry, and through the same process for analysis, this study found that the model can not be used for prediction, and there will be a model failure.
The conclusions of this study are the following three points. The first point is different types of mobile games, and the pattern of growth curve is also different. The second point is that the growth trend of the overall industry of mobile games will be affected by different industries at different stages. The third point is that the overall trend of the mobile game industry and its various industries show significant differences.
Keywords: mobile games, growth trends, growth curves, meso level, product diffusion model
參考文獻 論文文獻
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[4] Day, W. (1998). The Golden Age of Video Game Arcades.
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[16] Kiiski, S., & Pohjola, M. (2002). Cross-country diffusion of the Internet. Information Economics and Policy, 14(2), 297-310.
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[28]吳亭潔. (2008). Gompertz分配產品之壽命績效的評估. (碩士), 淡江大學, 新北市. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/nnw8r4
[29]呂縩正. (2016). 以雲端平行運算建立期貨走勢預測模型-Logistic Regression之應用. (碩士), 國立政治大學, 台北市. [1]洪偉傑. (2008). 探討觸發效應對新產品擴散過程之影響. (碩士), 東海大學, 台中市. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/55t2ec
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網路資料
[1] Newzoo-Mobile Revenues Account for More Than 50% of the Global Games Market as It Reaches $137.9 Billion in 2018：
https://newzoo.com/insights/articles/global-games-market-reaches-137-9-billion-in-2018-mobile-games-take-half/
[2] 工研院-產業分析方法
lms.ctl.cyut.edu.tw/sys/read_attach.php?id=729796
[3] Rogers Everett [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons：https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diffusion_of_ideas.svg
[4] 這是什麼真是太棒了嗎?近年來吸收日本文化並且高質量中國製手機遊戲正在增加中(ナニこれスゴくない？　日本文化を吸収したハイクオリティすぎる中国産ゲームアプリが近年増加中)：
https://app.famitsu.com/20170118_946285/
[5] MOBA Map Original PNG version by Raizin, SVG rework by Sameboat
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_MOBA_zh_hant.svg
[6] 少女前線官方推特：
https://twitter.com/girlsfrontline
[7] 2016年中國電競產業報告：
http://www.cgigc.com.cn/gamedata/8514.html
[8] 用戶2億大賺百億 陸手遊《王者榮耀》引爆熱潮：http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20170628003344-260409
[9] 《王者荣耀》防沉迷系统一天之内遭破解！10元便可：
https://www.wanuxi.com/《王者荣耀》防沉迷系统一天之内遭破解！10元便可/
[10] 熱門遊戲王者榮耀劉邦張飛皮膚圖片壁紙：
http://www.win4000.com/wallpaper_detail_113264.html
[11] 英魂之刃口袋版 一大波新更新即將到來 周年皮膚輪刃審判曝光：
https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/game/onvkn6m.html
[12] 英魂之刃手遊怎麼回城 英魂之刃口袋版回程方法詳解：
http://www.pc6.com/edu/102872.html
[13] 絕對公平 MOBA 手機遊戲《時空召喚》代理權確定，預定 1 月進軍台港澳：
https://www.gamebase.com.tw/news/topic/98226024/
[14] 時空召喚官方網站：
https://moba.yh.cn/game/news/info-2105.shtml
[15] 科幻MOBA《時空召喚》評測：享受真正MOBA的樂趣：
http://www.9game.cn/skzh/612549.html
[16] [iOS] 精緻手機遊戲大作『Vainglory最終榮耀』App也有華麗畫面!!：
https://agirls.aotter.net/post/23869
[17] MWC 2016／《Vainglory 最終榮耀》獲最佳行動遊戲獎：https://sports.ettoday.net/news/652583
[18] 小米槍戰模擬器設置曝光！完美實現PC上玩小米槍戰【福利】：
https://game.shouji.com.cn/news/7117.html
[19] 小米槍戰雪地摩托車比人跑得還慢？：
https://www.xuehua.us/2018/06/03/小米枪战雪地摩托车比人跑得还慢？/zh-tw/
[20] 終結者2審判日全球總決賽開戰：
https://t2.163.com/league/cjls/
[21] Taptap-為啥我找不到註銷登入：
https://www.taptap.com/topic/1893836
[22] 終結者2第三人稱新增機描 5月16日維護更新公告：
http://news.4399.com/dhky/zixun/m/843967.html
[23] 《荒野行動 Plus》特色解讀 玩法戰略大升級：http://play.163.com/18/0212/11/DAEM5I3B00318PFH.html
[24] ios,iphone荒野行動下載,免appstore,可以用掃一掃玩電腦版
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvaMvoBZLZ0
[25] 荒野行動新福利上線 冬雪之森大廳外觀免費領取
http://www.9game.cn/hyxd/2102840.html
[26] 絕地求生官方推特：https://twitter.com/PLAYERUNKNOWN/status/905083558833860609
[27] 騰訊正版吃雞《全軍出擊》vs《刺激戰場》雙胞手遊對打，誰比較好玩比一比：https://www.4gamers.com.tw/news/detail/34377/tencent-two-titles-of-pubg-mobile-game-looks-exactly-the-same
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
科技管理與智慧財產研究所
105364122
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105364122
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳豐祥zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Feng-Shangen_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 李嘉泰zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Li, Jia-Taien_US
dc.creator (作者) 李嘉泰zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Li, Jia-Taien_US
dc.date (日期) 2019en_US
dc.date.accessioned 12-二月-2019 15:59:26 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 12-二月-2019 15:59:26 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 12-二月-2019 15:59:26 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0105364122en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/122329-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 科技管理與智慧財產研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 105364122zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究主要探討手機遊戲之成長趨勢，手機遊戲是近十年來出現之產業，根據Newzoo的產業報告，其收益已經佔整體遊戲產業的50%以上，超越了電腦遊戲以及家用遊戲機，是不可忽視的一個新興產業。本研究以成長趨勢以及不同產業層次的觀點下去分析，將手機遊戲產業分為整體手機遊戲產業以及依照不同遊戲類型做區分的次產業，試圖回答以下研究問題：成長曲線是否能適用於手機遊戲產業成長趨勢之分析？整體產業與次產業之成長趨勢分析有何關聯性與差異性？
　　經過本研究分析，本研究認為選用Bass Model作為主要分析手機遊戲之模型，本研究藉由分析報告以及媒體報導，選出日系中資手機遊戲、MOBA手機遊戲、大逃殺手機遊戲這三大類型作為本研究之研究對象。在這三大類型依照綜合排名、下載量等篩選條件各挑出五款遊戲作為該類型之代表，各自將五款手機遊戲之下載量相加即成為該遊戲類型(次產業)，透過下載量與累積下載量經由二次回歸求出二次方程式，進而求出市場上限m、創新係數p、模仿係數q，並藉由這三種係數，計算出預測下載量與累積下載量，與實際資訊進行比對與分析。本研究發現以畫面風格作為特色之手機遊戲，其受到廣告媒體之影響較大；以玩法作為特色之手機遊戲，其受到口碑效應之影響比較大；受到官方影響之手機遊戲則無法預測。最後將這三種類型共15款之手機遊戲數據相加形成整體手機遊戲產業，並藉由相同的過程進行分析，本研究發現無法利用模型進行預測，會有模型失效的情形發生。
本研究之結論為以下三點，第一點為不同類型之手機遊戲，其成長曲線的型態亦有所不同；第二點為手機遊戲整體產業之成長趨勢會在不同階段分別受到不同次產業的影響；第三點為手機遊戲整體產業與其各次產業的成長趨勢呈現明顯差異。
關鍵字：手機遊戲、成長趨勢、成長曲線、次產業、產品擴散		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research focuses on the growth trend of mobile games. Mobile games are the industry that has emerged in the past ten years. According to Newzoo`s industry report, its revenue has accounted for more than 50% of the overall game industry. It surpasses computer games and home game consoles. This study analyzes the growth trend and the perspective of different industry levels. The mobile game industry is divided into the overall mobile game industry and the meso level industries that are differentiated according to different game types, try to answer the following research questions: Can the growth curve be applied to the growth of the mobile game industry? What is the correlation and difference between the analysis of the growth trend of the overall industry and the meso level industries?
After the analysis of this study, this study considers the Bass Model as the main model for analyzing mobile games. This study uses the analysis report and media reports to select three types of Japanese-style mobile games, MOBA mobile games, and Battle royale mobile games. The research object of this study. In these three types, according to the comprehensive ranking, download volume and other screening conditions, each of the five games is selected as the representative of the type, and each of the five mobile game downloads is added to become the game type (meso level industry), through the download amount. The quadratic equation is obtained by quadratic regression with the cumulative download amount, and then the market upper limit m, the innovation coefficient p, and the imitation coefficient q are obtained, and the predicted download amount and the cumulative download amount are calculated by the three coefficients, and the actual information is performed. Comparison and analysis. This study found that the mobile phone game featuring picture style is greatly influenced by the advertising media; the mobile game with the gameplay as its characteristic is greatly influenced by the word-of-mouth effect; the mobile game affected by the official is unpredictable. Finally, the data of these three types of mobile phone games are added to form the overall mobile game industry, and through the same process for analysis, this study found that the model can not be used for prediction, and there will be a model failure.
The conclusions of this study are the following three points. The first point is different types of mobile games, and the pattern of growth curve is also different. The second point is that the growth trend of the overall industry of mobile games will be affected by different industries at different stages. The third point is that the overall trend of the mobile game industry and its various industries show significant differences.
Keywords: mobile games, growth trends, growth curves, meso level, product diffusion model		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 3
第三節 研究問題 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 產業分析 6
第二節 手機遊戲產業 8
第三節 創新擴散理論 15
第四節 Bass Model 20
第五節 研究缺口與小結 24
第三章 研究方法 28
第一節 研究方法 28
第二節 分析方法 29
第三節 研究對象選擇 29
第四節 研究數據來源 35
第五節 研究限制 36
第四章 研究結果 37
第一節 日系中資手機遊戲 37
第二節 MOBA手機遊戲 51
第三節 大逃殺手機遊戲 64
第四節 總體手機遊戲 78
第五節 發現與討論 85
第五章 結論 89
第一節 研究結論 89
第二節 實務上的意涵 90
第三節 未來研究建議 90
參考文獻 91		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 6708748 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105364122en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 手機遊戲zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 成長趨勢zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 成長曲線zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 次產業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 產品擴散zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mobile gamesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Growth trendsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Growth curveen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Meso levelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Product diffusion modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 手機遊戲成長趨勢之研究-不同產業層級分析之異同zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A Study of the Growth Trend of Mobile Games : the Analyses Based on Different Industrial Levelsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 論文文獻
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網路資料
[1] Newzoo-Mobile Revenues Account for More Than 50% of the Global Games Market as It Reaches $137.9 Billion in 2018：
https://newzoo.com/insights/articles/global-games-market-reaches-137-9-billion-in-2018-mobile-games-take-half/
[2] 工研院-產業分析方法
lms.ctl.cyut.edu.tw/sys/read_attach.php?id=729796
[3] Rogers Everett [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons：https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diffusion_of_ideas.svg
[4] 這是什麼真是太棒了嗎?近年來吸收日本文化並且高質量中國製手機遊戲正在增加中(ナニこれスゴくない？　日本文化を吸収したハイクオリティすぎる中国産ゲームアプリが近年増加中)：
https://app.famitsu.com/20170118_946285/
[5] MOBA Map Original PNG version by Raizin, SVG rework by Sameboat
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_MOBA_zh_hant.svg
[6] 少女前線官方推特：
https://twitter.com/girlsfrontline
[7] 2016年中國電競產業報告：
http://www.cgigc.com.cn/gamedata/8514.html
[8] 用戶2億大賺百億 陸手遊《王者榮耀》引爆熱潮：http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20170628003344-260409
[9] 《王者荣耀》防沉迷系统一天之内遭破解！10元便可：
https://www.wanuxi.com/《王者荣耀》防沉迷系统一天之内遭破解！10元便可/
[10] 熱門遊戲王者榮耀劉邦張飛皮膚圖片壁紙：
http://www.win4000.com/wallpaper_detail_113264.html
[11] 英魂之刃口袋版 一大波新更新即將到來 周年皮膚輪刃審判曝光：
https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/game/onvkn6m.html
[12] 英魂之刃手遊怎麼回城 英魂之刃口袋版回程方法詳解：
http://www.pc6.com/edu/102872.html
[13] 絕對公平 MOBA 手機遊戲《時空召喚》代理權確定，預定 1 月進軍台港澳：
https://www.gamebase.com.tw/news/topic/98226024/
[14] 時空召喚官方網站：
https://moba.yh.cn/game/news/info-2105.shtml
[15] 科幻MOBA《時空召喚》評測：享受真正MOBA的樂趣：
http://www.9game.cn/skzh/612549.html
[16] [iOS] 精緻手機遊戲大作『Vainglory最終榮耀』App也有華麗畫面!!：
https://agirls.aotter.net/post/23869
[17] MWC 2016／《Vainglory 最終榮耀》獲最佳行動遊戲獎：https://sports.ettoday.net/news/652583
[18] 小米槍戰模擬器設置曝光！完美實現PC上玩小米槍戰【福利】：
https://game.shouji.com.cn/news/7117.html
[19] 小米槍戰雪地摩托車比人跑得還慢？：
https://www.xuehua.us/2018/06/03/小米枪战雪地摩托车比人跑得还慢？/zh-tw/
[20] 終結者2審判日全球總決賽開戰：
https://t2.163.com/league/cjls/
[21] Taptap-為啥我找不到註銷登入：
https://www.taptap.com/topic/1893836
[22] 終結者2第三人稱新增機描 5月16日維護更新公告：
http://news.4399.com/dhky/zixun/m/843967.html
[23] 《荒野行動 Plus》特色解讀 玩法戰略大升級：http://play.163.com/18/0212/11/DAEM5I3B00318PFH.html
[24] ios,iphone荒野行動下載,免appstore,可以用掃一掃玩電腦版
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvaMvoBZLZ0
[25] 荒野行動新福利上線 冬雪之森大廳外觀免費領取
http://www.9game.cn/hyxd/2102840.html
[26] 絕地求生官方推特：https://twitter.com/PLAYERUNKNOWN/status/905083558833860609
[27] 騰訊正版吃雞《全軍出擊》vs《刺激戰場》雙胞手遊對打，誰比較好玩比一比：https://www.4gamers.com.tw/news/detail/34377/tencent-two-titles-of-pubg-mobile-game-looks-exactly-the-same		zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.TIIPM.004.2019.F08en_US