| dc.contributor.advisor | 林士貴<br>蔡政憲 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 羅郁婷 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Lo, Yu-Ting | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 羅郁婷 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Lo, Yu-Ting | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2019 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 7-Aug-2019 16:13:55 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 7-Aug-2019 16:13:55 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 7-Aug-2019 16:13:55 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0107352013 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/124745 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 金融學系 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 107352013 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 在IFRS 17的規範下，要求各國需因應國際會計準則在無風險利率的變動下，從原先的固定折現因子改變為需要隨著市場資料即時變動之折現因子，本文藉由IANs與ICS的建議下使用Smith-Wilson 模型，再從此模型中的假設進行穩定度測試與現金流波動，觀測終極遠期利率訂定的合理性。從計算結果中可以得知，僅使用1、5、10年期之債券資料穩定性最高，使用1、5、10年期之債券資料先進性二次插值之方式次佳，最後使用1-10年期債券資料表現最差，因此未來在考慮使用市場資料時，應將市場流通性等問題納入考量範圍。在商品現金流測試中，可發現使用二次插值之方式下，相較於其他兩者有較小的波動結果。從分析結果中可以得知無風險利率曲線會受到許多的變因影響，因此在使用可觀察區間資料上需要進行詳細的探討以及終極遠期利率的給定也會直接地影響線段的穩定性，在UFR上之設定也是重要的議題。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Under the IFRS 17 standard, it’s required to change from the locked-in discount rate which is applied around the world, to the current discount rate. In this paper, we use the Smith-Wilson model, which based on IANs and ICS to perform stability and cash flow test to observe the rationality of the ultimate forward rate setting. According to the result of the testing, it can be shown that using the Taiwan government bonds of 1y, 5y and 10y to interpolate the first ten-year interest curve is the most stable situation while the second-order interpolation of the advanced information is the second best. However, the performance of 1y to 10y Taiwan government bond is the worst among three different situations. Therefore, when it comes to the usage of market data in the future, issues such as market liquidity should be taken into consideration. Moreover, in the cash flow test it can be found that the second-order interpolation method has the result with smaller fluctuation compared with the other.Through the analysis outcomes, it can be seen that the risk-free interest rate curve will be affected by many factors, so the detailed discussion on the use of observable interval data and the given final forward rate will directly influence the stability of the line segment. Furthermore, the setting on the UFR is also an important issue. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的 2第三節 研究架構 2第二章 文獻回顧與簡介 3第一節 IFRS 17 準則 3第二節 長年期利率曲線預測 5第三節 國際監理機關建構無風險模型方式 6第三章 研究方法 9第一節 SMITH-WILSON MODEL 9第二節 可觀察區間資料 13第三節 終極遠期利率之預測 15第四章 數值分析與實證結果 18第一節 可觀察區間資料選用之結果比較 18第二節 預期實質利率結果 20第三節 預期未來通貨膨脹結果 21第四節 終極遠期利率之計算結果 22第五節 內插無風險利率之結果 25第六節 現金流測試 28第五章 建議與結論 30第一節 結論 30第二節 未來研究建議 31參考文獻 32一、 中文文獻 32二、 英文文獻 33 | zh_TW |
| dc.format.extent | 2856558 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107352013 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Smith-Wilson | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 終極遠期利率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | IFRS 17 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 無風險利率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Smith-Wilson | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | UFR | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | IFRS 17 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Risk-Free Interest Rate | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | IFRS 17規範下以Smith-Wilson模型建構無風險利率曲線之期限結構 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Using the Smith-Wilson Model to Construct the Term-Structure Risk-Free Interest Rate under the IFRS 17 Standard | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en_US |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 一、 中文文獻[1] 財團法人保險安定基金. (2011). 歐洲保險保障機制現況與發展.[2] 財團法人保險安定基金. (2018). 。出席2018年6月國際精算學會（IAA）上半年年會會議暨拜訪歐洲保險和職業退休金管理局報告.[3] 財團法人保險安定基金. (2018). 。出席2018年6月國際精算學會（IAA）上半年年會會議暨拜訪歐洲保險和職業退休金管理局報告.[4] 資誠聯合會計師事務所. (2017). 談保險合約(IFRS 17)導入之過渡準備.[5] 勤業眾信. (2018). 保險面面觀：IFRS 17及保險精算實務解析. 二、 英文文獻[1] Balter, A., Pelsser, A., & Schotman, P. (2014). What does a Term Structure Model Imply about Very Long-Term Discount Rates?. Available at SSRN.[2] Bassemir, M. (2018). Why do Private Firms Adopt IFRS?. Accounting and Business Research, 48(3), 237-263.[3] Ewelt-Knauer, C., Kraft, A., & Schneider, J. (2018). The New International Accounting Standard for Insurance Contracts (IFRS 17) – A Critical Analysis of Its Impact on the Insurance Industry, 107(2), 193-226.[4] Giglio, S., Maggiori, M., & Stroebel, J. (2014). Very Long-Run Discount Rates. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(1), 1-53.[5] Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors. (2010) . European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority. QIS 5 Risk-free interest rate—Extrapolation method.[6] International Association of Insurance Supervisors. (2018) . IAIS Base Yield Curve Methodology for ICS Version 2.0.[7] The International Actuarial Association. (2018) . International Actuarial Note on Application of IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts. | zh_TW |
| dc.identifier.doi (DOI) | 10.6814/NCCU201900210 | en_US |
