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題名 資源錯置模型探討DRAM產業廠商退出與反事實合併假設
The study of Misallocation model of DRAM industry vendors in withdrawal and Counterfactual analysis of merger hypothesis.作者 倪湘倫
Ni, Hsiang-Lun貢獻者 王信實<br>李文傑
Wang, Shinn-Shyr<br>Lee, Wen-Chieh
倪湘倫
Ni, Hsiang-Lun關鍵詞 DRAM產業
資源錯置模型
反事實分析
廠商退出
廠商合併日期 2019 上傳時間 7-Aug-2019 16:49:48 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究以2007年至2012年台灣DRAM（動態隨機存取記憶體）產業中的廠商退出事件為研究背景，以2009年第一季奇夢達（Qimonda）破產為一劃分依據，分析後續廠商決策與台灣政策變化。使用資源配置模型探討三項議題，衡量奇夢達倒閉事件前後是否具有資源錯置的問題？政府是否可使用整併政策紓困DRAM產業困境？找出DRAM產業失敗的原因與時點以及未來發展策略。因此，完成以奇夢達倒閉事件前後的資源配置效率分析，與二項反事實假設，假設事件後廠商整併與倒閉事件未發生的案例分析。得出結論為DRAM市場中廠商退出會使資源配置效率降低，且投入扭曲程度受資金來源穩定度影響。另外，可藉由整併兩家市場上扭曲程度較大的廠商提升資源配置效率，並改善資本閒置與怠惰勞工的問題。而奇夢達倒閉事件對於當時的DRAM產業有利，而政府並未適當介入重新分配資源才致使後續廠商轉型與下市。
This research starts by investigating the degree of input misallocation prevalent in the DRAM industry. Based on the severe input misallocation problems observed in the Taiwanese DRAM industry the article proceeds with the dynamic market structure adjustment to fix the computed input distortions. Splitting the timeline following the Qimonda insolvency, two scenarios featured by first the firm exit and team-up mergers of incumbent firms exhibit divergent changes of equilibrium misallocations. That is realized that exit event would push up efficient frontiers to drag down overall industry-wide misallocation while merger scenarios bring up significant improvement of input distortions featuring by higher production efficiency.參考文獻 [1]Atkeson, A., Kehoe,P.,（2005）.Modeling and measuring organization capital. J. Polit.Econ.113,1026–1053.[2]Banerjee A.V., and Esther Duflo,（2005）.Growth Theory through the Lens of Development Economics, In: Handbook of Economic Growth, edited by Aghion and Durlauf,vol.1a,pp.473-552.[3]Basu,S.,（1996）.Procyclical productivity: increasing returns or cyclical utilization? ,Q.J.Econ.111,719–751.[4]Basu,S.,Fernald,J.G.,（1995）.Are apparent productive Spill overs a figment of specification error?, J. Monet.Econ.36,165–188.[5]Basu,S.,Kimball,M.S.,（1997）.Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation.WorkingPaperno.5915(February). National Bureau for EconomicResearch, Cambridge, MA.[6]D. Restuccia, R. Rogerson,（2008）. Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol 11(4),pp. 702-20.[7]David Hirshleifer, Po-Hsuan Hsu, Dongmei Li,（2013）. Innovative efficiency and stock returns, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol 107, Issue 3, pp. 632-654.[8]Electronics Research and Service Organization,（1999-2010）.Yearbook of Taiwan Semiconductor Industry. Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan.[9]Hsieh C.T., Klenow P.J.,（2009）.Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.124, pp.1403-1448.[10]Hall R.E., C.I. Jones,（1999）.Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.114, pp.83-116[11]Klenow, P.J., Rodríguez -Clare, A.（1997）.The neoclassical revival in growth economics: has it gone too far?, In: Bernanke, B., Rotemberg, J. (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 73–103.[12]Lee Wen-Chieh., Wang Shinn-Shyr.,（2017）.Misallocations and policy constraints on mergers in the modern manufacturing sector. Journal of MacroeconomicsVol 52, pp. 268-286.[13]Murillo, L.E.,（1993）.The International Dynamic Random Access Memory Industry From 1970 to 1993 Examined Under the Dynamic Capabilities Prism:Implications for Technology Policy [Ph.D. Thesis]. University of California, Berkeley.[14]Ma, Daw. John Mark.（2003）.The DRAM Market Structure: The Rise and Fall in Concentration. The 8th Annual Cambridge International Manufacturing Symposium. Cambridge, UK.[15]Parente, Stephen L.,Prescott, Edward C.,（1994）. Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol.102(2), pp.298-321.[16]Parente, Stephen L., Prescott, Edward C.,（1999）.Monopoly Rights: A Barrier to Riches, American Economic Review, vol.89, no.5.[17]PM. Gardete.2016, Competing Under Asymmetric Information: The Case of Dynamic Random Access Memory Manufacturing. Journal Management Science. Vol. 62 Issue 11, pp. 3291-3309.[18]Restuccia, D,,Rogerson,R.,（2013）.Misallocation and productivity. Rev.Econ.Dyn.16,1–10.[19]Uras,R.B.,Wang,P.,（2016）.Techniques Choice, Misallocation and Total Factor Productivity Discussion Paper 2014-074.Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg, Netherlands. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
1062580301資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1062580301 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 王信實<br>李文傑 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wang, Shinn-Shyr<br>Lee, Wen-Chieh en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 倪湘倫 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ni, Hsiang-Lun en_US dc.creator (作者) 倪湘倫 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Ni, Hsiang-Lun en_US dc.date (日期) 2019 en_US dc.date.accessioned 7-Aug-2019 16:49:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 7-Aug-2019 16:49:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 7-Aug-2019 16:49:48 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1062580301 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/124945 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 1062580301 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以2007年至2012年台灣DRAM（動態隨機存取記憶體）產業中的廠商退出事件為研究背景，以2009年第一季奇夢達（Qimonda）破產為一劃分依據，分析後續廠商決策與台灣政策變化。使用資源配置模型探討三項議題，衡量奇夢達倒閉事件前後是否具有資源錯置的問題？政府是否可使用整併政策紓困DRAM產業困境？找出DRAM產業失敗的原因與時點以及未來發展策略。因此，完成以奇夢達倒閉事件前後的資源配置效率分析，與二項反事實假設，假設事件後廠商整併與倒閉事件未發生的案例分析。得出結論為DRAM市場中廠商退出會使資源配置效率降低，且投入扭曲程度受資金來源穩定度影響。另外，可藉由整併兩家市場上扭曲程度較大的廠商提升資源配置效率，並改善資本閒置與怠惰勞工的問題。而奇夢達倒閉事件對於當時的DRAM產業有利，而政府並未適當介入重新分配資源才致使後續廠商轉型與下市。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research starts by investigating the degree of input misallocation prevalent in the DRAM industry. Based on the severe input misallocation problems observed in the Taiwanese DRAM industry the article proceeds with the dynamic market structure adjustment to fix the computed input distortions. Splitting the timeline following the Qimonda insolvency, two scenarios featured by first the firm exit and team-up mergers of incumbent firms exhibit divergent changes of equilibrium misallocations. That is realized that exit event would push up efficient frontiers to drag down overall industry-wide misallocation while merger scenarios bring up significant improvement of input distortions featuring by higher production efficiency. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 前言 1第一節 研究背景與動機 3第二章 文獻回顧 5第三章 台灣DRAM產業簡介 7第一節 產品特性 7第二節 產業結構 7第三節 產業特性 9第四節 台灣DRAM產業沿革 13第四章 資源配置模型 18第五章 資料敘述 23第一節 資料來源 23第二節 資料蒐集與說明 24第六章 奇夢達倒閉後資源錯置程度 28第一節 模型參數估計 28第二節 廠商倒閉後資源配置效率與扭曲程度 29第七章 反事實分析─廠商整併與未倒閉假設 32第一節 假設台灣廠商合併 32第二節 假設奇夢達並未倒閉 44第八章 結論與建議 47第一節 研究發現與結論 47第二節 未來研究建議 48參考文獻 49 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1563076 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1062580301 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) DRAM產業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資源錯置模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 反事實分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 廠商退出 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 廠商合併 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 資源錯置模型探討DRAM產業廠商退出與反事實合併假設 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The study of Misallocation model of DRAM industry vendors in withdrawal and Counterfactual analysis of merger hypothesis. en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1]Atkeson, A., Kehoe,P.,（2005）.Modeling and measuring organization capital. J. Polit.Econ.113,1026–1053.[2]Banerjee A.V., and Esther Duflo,（2005）.Growth Theory through the Lens of Development Economics, In: Handbook of Economic Growth, edited by Aghion and Durlauf,vol.1a,pp.473-552.[3]Basu,S.,（1996）.Procyclical productivity: increasing returns or cyclical utilization? ,Q.J.Econ.111,719–751.[4]Basu,S.,Fernald,J.G.,（1995）.Are apparent productive Spill overs a figment of specification error?, J. Monet.Econ.36,165–188.[5]Basu,S.,Kimball,M.S.,（1997）.Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation.WorkingPaperno.5915(February). National Bureau for EconomicResearch, Cambridge, MA.[6]D. Restuccia, R. Rogerson,（2008）. Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol 11(4),pp. 702-20.[7]David Hirshleifer, Po-Hsuan Hsu, Dongmei Li,（2013）. Innovative efficiency and stock returns, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol 107, Issue 3, pp. 632-654.[8]Electronics Research and Service Organization,（1999-2010）.Yearbook of Taiwan Semiconductor Industry. Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan.[9]Hsieh C.T., Klenow P.J.,（2009）.Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.124, pp.1403-1448.[10]Hall R.E., C.I. Jones,（1999）.Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.114, pp.83-116[11]Klenow, P.J., Rodríguez -Clare, A.（1997）.The neoclassical revival in growth economics: has it gone too far?, In: Bernanke, B., Rotemberg, J. (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 73–103.[12]Lee Wen-Chieh., Wang Shinn-Shyr.,（2017）.Misallocations and policy constraints on mergers in the modern manufacturing sector. Journal of MacroeconomicsVol 52, pp. 268-286.[13]Murillo, L.E.,（1993）.The International Dynamic Random Access Memory Industry From 1970 to 1993 Examined Under the Dynamic Capabilities Prism:Implications for Technology Policy [Ph.D. Thesis]. University of California, Berkeley.[14]Ma, Daw. John Mark.（2003）.The DRAM Market Structure: The Rise and Fall in Concentration. The 8th Annual Cambridge International Manufacturing Symposium. Cambridge, UK.[15]Parente, Stephen L.,Prescott, Edward C.,（1994）. Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol.102(2), pp.298-321.[16]Parente, Stephen L., Prescott, Edward C.,（1999）.Monopoly Rights: A Barrier to Riches, American Economic Review, vol.89, no.5.[17]PM. Gardete.2016, Competing Under Asymmetric Information: The Case of Dynamic Random Access Memory Manufacturing. Journal Management Science. Vol. 62 Issue 11, pp. 3291-3309.[18]Restuccia, D,,Rogerson,R.,（2013）.Misallocation and productivity. Rev.Econ.Dyn.16,1–10.[19]Uras,R.B.,Wang,P.,（2016）.Techniques Choice, Misallocation and Total Factor Productivity Discussion Paper 2014-074.Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg, Netherlands. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU201900266 en_US
