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題名 外籍移工、基本工資與失業：台灣實證研究
An Empirical Study of Foreign Workers, Minimum Wage and Unemployment in Taiwan作者 管君庭
Kuan, Chun-Ting貢獻者 洪福聲
管君庭
Kuan, Chun-Ting關鍵詞 外籍移工
失業率
基本工資
向量誤差修正模型
因果關係檢定
Foreign Workers
Unemployment Rate
Minimum Wage
Vector Error Correction Model
Granger Causality Test日期 2019 上傳時間 7-Aug-2019 16:55:06 (UTC+8) 摘要 勞動參數的變動、外籍移工人數之消長與基本工資之間的關係錯綜複雜，基本工資的依時性（time-dependence）連帶影響就業市場的活絡，就業市場的供需平衡又與引進外籍移工、基本工資與本國勞工參與勞動之意願息息相關。本文應用時間序列計量方法，檢驗1997年至2018年全國整體外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數、基本工資、失業率與勞動參與率五項變數之間的互動關聯性，實證結果顯示，短期（最適落後期為兩期）內只有外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數、失業率與勞動參與率四項變數之間存在互動關係，基本工資不受其他變數影響，四項變數中，失業率與外籍移工人數存在雙向的負向Granger回饋關係，失聯移工人數正向Granger影響勞動參與率。長期則存在1個以上的共整合關係（cointegration），當存在1個共整合關係時，勞動參與率、外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數與基本工資脫離長期均衡關係上升時，失業率會下降以恢復長期均衡；當存在2個共整合關係時，勞動參與率恢復長期均衡的方向會與1個共整合關係的方向相反。本文可提供產、官、學及勞方了解基本工資、外籍移工政策與就業市場之間可能的互動關係，做為擬定相關政策之參考。
The relationships among labor market dynamism, minimum wage and the number of foreign workers are complicated. Time-dependent adjustment in minimum wage would affect labor market dynamics, while labor market equilibrium is closely related to the introduction of foreign workers, minimum wage and workers’ willingness to work. This paper empirically investigated the interactions among Taiwan’s minimum wage, the number of foreign workers, the number of missing foreign workers, unemployment rate and labor participation rate using time series data for the period 1997-2018. Johansen cointegration test result supported the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among five variables. The long-run equilibrium reported that the increase of minimum wage, labor participation rate, the number of foreign workers and missing foreign workers would lead to the decrease of unemployment rate. Additionally, the Granger causality test based on vector error correction model revealed that there is a bidirectional short-run causalities between unemployment rate and the number of foreign workers, and that there is a unidirectional short-run causalities running from the number of missing foreign workers to labor participation rate. This paper shed light on the interactions among labor market, minimum wage and the foreign worker policy, and informed the related policy-makers of statistics in terms of labor economics.參考文獻 洪毓霞（2015）。全球化對國內勞動市場之影響-以製造業海外生產行為為證。主計月刊，（711），64-69。林師模、楊琇如（2005）。雙元勞動市場下產業結構轉型與人力需求演變。亞太經濟管理評論，9（1），1-31。林國榮、詹火生、馬財專、藍科正（2014）。未來十年我國外勞政策變革方向之研究。國家發展委員會委託研究報告（編號：NDC-DSD-102-11）。林依伶、楊子霆（2018）。經濟成長、薪資停滯？初探台灣實質薪資與勞動生產力成長脫鉤之成因。經濟論文。即將出版。周志霖（2017）。引進外籍勞工對我國薪資之影響。國立臺灣大學研究所碩士論文，未出版，臺北市。黃台心、鍾銘泰、楊淳如（2015）。運用向量誤差修正模型探討台灣各產業與股市大盤間資訊傳遞速度。管理與系統，22（1），1-31。黃仁德、鍾建屏（2015）。國際上外籍勞工政策與最低(基本)工資制度之關連性。勞動部研究報告。黃毓銘（2001）。台灣地區的勞動轉型。資訊社會研究（1）。257-278。潘浙楠、席嘉澤、陳曉倩（2009）。自我相關殘差管制圖模型選取之研究。品質學報，16（4），273-288。鄭安玲、宋鎮照（2011）。勞動移民政策之政經分析：台星兩國之比較研究。稻江學報，5（2），81-105。鄭乃云、李聯雄、李淑媛（2014）。外勞引進政策對國人就業之衝擊評估研究。勞動部勞動及職業安全衛生研究所研究計畫（編號：IOSH102-A324）。Altonji, J. G., & Card, D. (1991). The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Natives, National Bureau of Economic ResearchBorjas, G. J. (2003). The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market*. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1335-1374. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552810.Boswell, C. (2007). Theorizing Migration Policy: Is There a Third Way?1. International Migration Review, 41(1), 75-100. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2007.00057.x.Dustmann, C., Fabbri, F., & Preston, I. (2005). The Impact of Immigration on The British Labour Market, The Economic Journal 115, 324-341Dustmann, C., Schönberg, U., & Stuhler, J. (2016). The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(4), 31-56. Retrieved from http://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.4.31.Ekrame B., Dramane C., & Christophe R. (2012). Immigration, Growth and Unemployment：Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries, Institute for the Study of Labor IZA Discussion Paper 6966Grossman, J. B. (1982). The Substitutability of Natives and Immigrants in Production. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 64(4), 596-603. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1923944.Gaetano Basso, Giovanni Peri. (2015). The Association between Immigration and Labor Market Outcomes in the United States. Institute for the Study of Labor IZA Discussion Paper 6436Hurvich, C. M., & Tsai, C.-L. (1989). Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika, 76(2), 297-307. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/76.2.297.Johansen, S. (2005). Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model*. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(1), 93-104.Kevin McQuillan. (2013). All the Workers We Need：Debunking Canada’s Labour-shortage Fallacy. The School of Public Policy(SPP) Research Papers 6 (16)Katz, R. S., & Mair, P. (1995). Changing Models of Party Organization and Party Democracy:The Emergence of the Cartel Party. Party Politics, 1(1), 5-28. Retrieved from https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354068895001001001.Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2938462.Nelson, C., & Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162. Retrieved from https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:10:y:1982:i:2:p:139-162.OECD. (2016). Migration and unemployment. OECD Factbook 2015-2016: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics (pp. 26-27). Paris: OECD PublishingTim Kane, Zach Rutledge. (2018). Immigration and Economic Performance Across Fifty U.S. States from 1980-2015. Hoover Institution Economics Working Papers 18112 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
106921063資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106921063 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 洪福聲 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 管君庭 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Kuan, Chun-Ting en_US dc.creator (作者) 管君庭 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Kuan, Chun-Ting en_US dc.date (日期) 2019 en_US dc.date.accessioned 7-Aug-2019 16:55:06 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 7-Aug-2019 16:55:06 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 7-Aug-2019 16:55:06 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106921063 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/124971 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106921063 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 勞動參數的變動、外籍移工人數之消長與基本工資之間的關係錯綜複雜，基本工資的依時性（time-dependence）連帶影響就業市場的活絡，就業市場的供需平衡又與引進外籍移工、基本工資與本國勞工參與勞動之意願息息相關。本文應用時間序列計量方法，檢驗1997年至2018年全國整體外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數、基本工資、失業率與勞動參與率五項變數之間的互動關聯性，實證結果顯示，短期（最適落後期為兩期）內只有外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數、失業率與勞動參與率四項變數之間存在互動關係，基本工資不受其他變數影響，四項變數中，失業率與外籍移工人數存在雙向的負向Granger回饋關係，失聯移工人數正向Granger影響勞動參與率。長期則存在1個以上的共整合關係（cointegration），當存在1個共整合關係時，勞動參與率、外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數與基本工資脫離長期均衡關係上升時，失業率會下降以恢復長期均衡；當存在2個共整合關係時，勞動參與率恢復長期均衡的方向會與1個共整合關係的方向相反。本文可提供產、官、學及勞方了解基本工資、外籍移工政策與就業市場之間可能的互動關係，做為擬定相關政策之參考。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The relationships among labor market dynamism, minimum wage and the number of foreign workers are complicated. Time-dependent adjustment in minimum wage would affect labor market dynamics, while labor market equilibrium is closely related to the introduction of foreign workers, minimum wage and workers’ willingness to work. This paper empirically investigated the interactions among Taiwan’s minimum wage, the number of foreign workers, the number of missing foreign workers, unemployment rate and labor participation rate using time series data for the period 1997-2018. Johansen cointegration test result supported the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among five variables. The long-run equilibrium reported that the increase of minimum wage, labor participation rate, the number of foreign workers and missing foreign workers would lead to the decrease of unemployment rate. Additionally, the Granger causality test based on vector error correction model revealed that there is a bidirectional short-run causalities between unemployment rate and the number of foreign workers, and that there is a unidirectional short-run causalities running from the number of missing foreign workers to labor participation rate. This paper shed light on the interactions among labor market, minimum wage and the foreign worker policy, and informed the related policy-makers of statistics in terms of labor economics. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景 1一、政策制定的過程 1二、外籍勞工與基本工資政策發展歷程 2三、就業市場概況 4第二節 研究目的 6第三節 研究推論 8第四節 研究方法與架構 10一、研究架構 10二、實證分析流程 11第二章 文獻回顧 13第一節 經濟理論探討 13一、 基本工資相關理論 13二、就業市場供需法則-勞動獨買市場模型 14三、替代品與互補品 15四、理性選擇假說 16五、移工遷徙、失業相關理論 16第二節 實證研究分析 19一、國內文獻 19二、國外文獻 20第三章 實證模型與結果 28第一節 資料來源與變數說明 28第二節 時間序列模型 32一、單根檢定 33二、向量誤差修正模型 34三、因果關係檢定 34第三節 實證模型與結果分析 35一、季節性迴歸分析及單根檢定 35二、共整合檢定 37三、向量誤差修正模型 39第四章 結語 46參考文獻 48 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2412761 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106921063 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 外籍移工 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 基本工資 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 向量誤差修正模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 因果關係檢定 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Foreign Workers en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Unemployment Rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Minimum Wage en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Vector Error Correction Model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger Causality Test en_US dc.title (題名) 外籍移工、基本工資與失業：台灣實證研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) An Empirical Study of Foreign Workers, Minimum Wage and Unemployment in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 洪毓霞（2015）。全球化對國內勞動市場之影響-以製造業海外生產行為為證。主計月刊，（711），64-69。林師模、楊琇如（2005）。雙元勞動市場下產業結構轉型與人力需求演變。亞太經濟管理評論，9（1），1-31。林國榮、詹火生、馬財專、藍科正（2014）。未來十年我國外勞政策變革方向之研究。國家發展委員會委託研究報告（編號：NDC-DSD-102-11）。林依伶、楊子霆（2018）。經濟成長、薪資停滯？初探台灣實質薪資與勞動生產力成長脫鉤之成因。經濟論文。即將出版。周志霖（2017）。引進外籍勞工對我國薪資之影響。國立臺灣大學研究所碩士論文，未出版，臺北市。黃台心、鍾銘泰、楊淳如（2015）。運用向量誤差修正模型探討台灣各產業與股市大盤間資訊傳遞速度。管理與系統，22（1），1-31。黃仁德、鍾建屏（2015）。國際上外籍勞工政策與最低(基本)工資制度之關連性。勞動部研究報告。黃毓銘（2001）。台灣地區的勞動轉型。資訊社會研究（1）。257-278。潘浙楠、席嘉澤、陳曉倩（2009）。自我相關殘差管制圖模型選取之研究。品質學報，16（4），273-288。鄭安玲、宋鎮照（2011）。勞動移民政策之政經分析：台星兩國之比較研究。稻江學報，5（2），81-105。鄭乃云、李聯雄、李淑媛（2014）。外勞引進政策對國人就業之衝擊評估研究。勞動部勞動及職業安全衛生研究所研究計畫（編號：IOSH102-A324）。Altonji, J. G., & Card, D. (1991). The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Natives, National Bureau of Economic ResearchBorjas, G. J. (2003). The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market*. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1335-1374. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552810.Boswell, C. (2007). Theorizing Migration Policy: Is There a Third Way?1. International Migration Review, 41(1), 75-100. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2007.00057.x.Dustmann, C., Fabbri, F., & Preston, I. (2005). The Impact of Immigration on The British Labour Market, The Economic Journal 115, 324-341Dustmann, C., Schönberg, U., & Stuhler, J. (2016). The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(4), 31-56. Retrieved from http://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.4.31.Ekrame B., Dramane C., & Christophe R. (2012). Immigration, Growth and Unemployment：Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries, Institute for the Study of Labor IZA Discussion Paper 6966Grossman, J. B. (1982). The Substitutability of Natives and Immigrants in Production. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 64(4), 596-603. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1923944.Gaetano Basso, Giovanni Peri. (2015). The Association between Immigration and Labor Market Outcomes in the United States. Institute for the Study of Labor IZA Discussion Paper 6436Hurvich, C. M., & Tsai, C.-L. (1989). Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika, 76(2), 297-307. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/76.2.297.Johansen, S. (2005). Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model*. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(1), 93-104.Kevin McQuillan. (2013). All the Workers We Need：Debunking Canada’s Labour-shortage Fallacy. The School of Public Policy(SPP) Research Papers 6 (16)Katz, R. S., & Mair, P. (1995). Changing Models of Party Organization and Party Democracy:The Emergence of the Cartel Party. Party Politics, 1(1), 5-28. Retrieved from https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354068895001001001.Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2938462.Nelson, C., & Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162. Retrieved from https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:10:y:1982:i:2:p:139-162.OECD. (2016). Migration and unemployment. OECD Factbook 2015-2016: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics (pp. 26-27). Paris: OECD PublishingTim Kane, Zach Rutledge. (2018). Immigration and Economic Performance Across Fifty U.S. States from 1980-2015. Hoover Institution Economics Working Papers 18112 zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU201900664 en_US
