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題名 臺灣房價與民間消費之關聯性研究
The Relationship among Housing Price and Consumption
作者 游億仙
You, Yi-Xian
貢獻者 林左裕
游億仙
You, Yi-Xian
關鍵詞 房價
民間消費
財富效果
排擠效果
向量自我迴歸模型
housing price
private consumption
wealth effect
crowding-out effect
vector self-regression model
日期 2018
上傳時間 5-Sep-2019 17:00:54 (UTC+8)
摘要 在2002年SARS危機解除、亞洲金融危機造成的通貨緊縮趨勢漸緩後，臺灣的房價迎來了一波連續成長，雖因2008年美國次貸風暴造成臺灣房價短暫下跌情形，之後又保持上升趨勢，直至今日。而傳統認為房地產為火車頭工業，可帶領總體經濟成長，且有研究證實價格上漲應會帶來財富效果、增加民間消費、促進GDP成長，故臺灣房價上漲期間同時應伴隨總體經濟成長，但近年來不斷攀升的房價與房價所得比成為社會熱門議題，甚至造成大量民怨。而近年亦有研究認為房價上漲會帶來排擠效果，可能導致消費減少、有礙總體經濟成長。

於是本研究探討房價上漲帶來的財富效果與排擠效果，以台灣地區的房價與民間消費作為研究對象，以向量自我迴歸模型作為實證方法，探討房價上漲與民間消費的相互關係。研究結果顯示，在房價上漲初期帶來的財富效果可能高於排擠效果，但上漲幅度過高時則會造成較大的排擠效果，導致民間消費減少。惟因研究資料限制，尚無法針對不同所得、是否擁有自有住宅、擁有住宅數量做不同族群分析，進而探討房價上漲對不同族群造成的影響差異。

鑒於研究結果，當房價上漲幅度過高時，可能導致經濟環境衰退，故政府應衡量房價之成長趨勢是否為健康成長，適當透過政策控管房價、房價所得比，避免房價過度上漲，導致國民可支配所得遭到排擠、降低民間消費，反而對整體經濟環境造成負面影響。
After the SARS crisis in 2002 and deflation caused by the Asian financial crisis slowed down, housing prices of Taiwan kept growing until now except that 2008 financial crisis caused a short decrease of housing prices. Real estate is considered a locomotive that can lead overall economic growth, and researches have confirmed that rising prices should cause wealth effects, increase private consumption, and promote GDP growth. Therefore, economic should grow while housing prices of Taiwan rise. However, the rising ratio of housing price to income has become a hot issue in society, and even caused public grievances. In recent years, some researches have confirmed that rising prices maybe cause crowding-out effect which may reduce consumption and hobble economic growth.
Therefore, this research explores the wealth effect and crowding-out effect caused by rising housing prices. With the housing prices and private consumption in Taiwan as the research object, the vector self-regression model is used as an empirical method to explore the relationship between rising housing price and private consumption. The result show that wealth effect may higher than the crowding-out effect when the housing price rise initially, but it will cause large crowding-out effect resulting a decrease in private consumption when the increase it too high. However, due to the limitation of research data, different impacts caused by rising housing prices have not been analyzed about people with different income, whether they own their own houses, and the number the own.
According to the research results, when the housing price rise is too high, it may lead to economic recession. Therefore, the government should measure whether the growth of housing prices is appropriate, apply some policies to control rise of housing price and the ratio of housing price to income, and avoid excessive housing price increases leading to reduce private consumption which has a negative impact on the overall economic.
參考文獻 一、 中文文獻
1.王健安、林秋瑾、張金鶚，1996，「房地產業對總體經濟活動之影響之分析」，『臺灣銀行季刊』，47(1):1-24。
2.吳森田，1994，「所得、貨幣與房價－近二十年台北地區的觀察」，『住宅學報』，(2):49-65。
3.李佳珍、盧永祥、丁安正、，2012，「臺北市各區人口、家庭所得與房屋價格關聯性之研究」，『商業現代化學刊』，6(3):243-254。
4.李明、黃珊燕、張琦，2011，「我國消費者信心指數與消費函數之間的關係研究」，『經濟縱橫』，(9):110-112。
5.李春風、劉建江、陳先意，2014，「房價上漲時對我國城鎮居民消費的擠出效應研究」，『統計研究』，31(12):32-40。
6.林元興，2005，「不動產市場運作之探討」，『土地問題研究季刊』，4(3):9-19。
7.林佑倫，2015，「房價變動對經濟成長及消費支出之影響」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文
8.林秋瑾、王健安、張金鶚，1997，「房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣於時間上領先、同時、落後關係之探討」，『國家科學委員會研究彙刊；人文及社會科學』，7(1):35-56。
9.林秋瑾、黃佩玲，1995，「住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係之研究－以向量自我迴歸模式（VAR）進行實證」，『國立政治大學學報』，71(2):143-159。
10.林進益、林元興，2011，「不動產市場產生景氣循環的原因與後果」，『土地問題研究季刊』，10(2):2-17。
11.施略謀，1991，『景氣變動』,臺灣，水牛出版社。
12.徐臘平、吳剛，2009，「我國房地產價格對居民消費的影響」，『建築經濟』，326(12):40-43。
13.袁冬梅、劉建江，2009，「房價上漲對居民消費的擠出效應研究」，『消費經濟』，25(3):7-11。
14.郭迺鋒、徐苑玲、林建廷，2013，「消費者信心指數與經濟活動臨近預測」，『兩岸金融季刊』，1(2):61-82。
15.陳明吉，1989，「房地產價格及其變動因素之研究」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文
16.陳秋鋤，1980，「台灣房屋建築循環之研究」，文化大學經濟研究所碩士論文
17.陳隆麒、李文雄，1998，「台灣地區房價、股價、利率互動關係之研究—聯立方程模型與向量自我迴歸模型之應用」，『財務金融學刊』，5(4):51-71。
18.彭建文、張金鶚，2000，「總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究」，『國家科學委員會研究彙刊；人文及社會科學』，10(3):330-343。
19.黃文治，1987，「建築業及其景氣」，『台灣房屋市場』，18(2)。
20.楊茂，2006，「中國消費者信心與消費需求拉動效應的實證分析」，『經濟經緯』，(1):21-23。
21.楊賀雯、陳姵妌，2012，「房地產市場價、量與總體經濟變數之Granger因果關係之研究—以臺灣臺中市新推個案為例」論文發表於〈世界華人不動產學會2012年會〉，澳門，2012/7/1~5。
22.鄭寧、陳立文，2015，「房價上漲對城鎮居民消費擠出效應的區域差異分析」，『商業經濟研究』，(16):25-26。
23.黎佳貞，2012，「從貨幣政策看房價之變動趨勢-以臺北市為例，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文
24.謝潔玉、吳斌珍、李宏彬、鄭思齊，2012，「中國城是房價與居民消費」，『金融研究』，384(6):13-27。
25.羅國男，1991，「台灣房地產景氣與股價關係性之研究」，國立中興大學企業管理研究所碩士論文
26.嚴金海、丰雷，2012，「中國住房價格變化對居民消費的影響研究」，『廈門大學學報(哲學社會科學版)』，210(2):71-78。
 
二、 英文文獻
1. Bernanke, B. S., 2010, "Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble.", IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc.
2. Bruestle, S. and Crain, W. M., 2015, "A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index.", Applied Economics, 47(23): 2430-2444.
3. Burns, L. S. and Grebler, L., 1982, "Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II.", AREUEA, 10(2): 123-151.
4. Campbell, J. Y. and Cocco, J. F., 2007, "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data.", Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(3): 591-621.
5. Case, K. E., Quigley, J. M. and Shiller, R. J, "Comparing Wealth Effects The Stock Market versus the Housing Market.", UC Berkeley Working Papers, 5(1).
6. Campbell, J. Y. and Cocco, J. F, 2004, "How do house prices affect consumption." Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(3): 591-621.
7. Derksen, J. B. D., 1940, "Long Cycles in Residential Building: An Explanation.", Econometrica, 8: 97-116.
8. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A., 1979, "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root.", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431.
9. Engel, R. F. and Granger, C.W.J., 1987, "Co-Integration and Error Correction Representation, Estimation, and Testing.", Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276.
10. Fortura, P. and Kushner, J, 1986, "Canadian Inter-City House Price Differentials.", AREUEA, 14(4): 525-536.
11. Goldstein, M. A. and Nelling, E. F., 1999, "Market Making and Trading in Nasdaq Stocks.", The Financial Review, 34: 27-44.
12. Goodhart, C. and Hofmann, B., 2008, "House Prices, money, credit and the macroeconomy.", IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc, 888.
13. Grangerm, C. W. J. and Newbold, P., 1974, "Spurious regressions in econometrics." Journal of Econometrics, 2(2): 111-120.
14. Grebler, L. and Mittelbach, F. G., 1979, The inflation of house prices, its extent, causes, and consequences, Lexington Books.
15. Hansen, A. H., 1951, Business cycles and national income, New York, Norton.
16. Islam, T. U. and Mumtaz, M. N., 2016, "Consumer Confidence Index and Economic Growth An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries.", EuroEconomica, 35(2): 17-22.
17. Jarociński, M. and Smets, M., 2008, "House Prices and the stance of monetary policy.", IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc, 891.
18. Johansen, S., 1988, "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors.", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2): 231-254.
19. KRASHINSKY, M. and MILNE, W., 1986, "Housing Price in Metropolitan Toronto: An Empirical Analysis.", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 17: 289-305.
20. Kuznets, S., 1952, "Long-term changes in the national income of the United States of America since 1870.", Review of Income and Wealth, 2(1): 29-241.
21. MARKUSEN, J. R. and MELVIN, J. R., 1979, "Tariffs, Capital Mobility, and Foreign Ownership.", Journal of International Economic, 9(3): 395-409.
22. Matthew, R. C. O., 1969, The Trade Cycle, London, Nisbet.
23. Mielcová, J. and Mielcová, E., 2017, "Is consumer confidence index a suitable predictor of future economic growth An evidence from the USA.", E+M Ekonomie a Management, 20(2): 30-45.
24. Morris, E. D., 2006, "Examining the wealth effects from home price.", University of Michigan Working Papers.
25. Negroa, M. D. and Otrokb, C., 2007, "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states.", Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(7): 1962-1985.
26. Negroa, M. D. and Otrokb, C., 2007, "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states.", Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(7): 1962-1985.
27. Nellis, J. G. and Longbottom, J. A., 1981, "An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Prices in the United Kingdom.", Urban Studies, 18(1): 9-21.
28. Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P., 1988, "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression.", Biometrika, 75(2): 335-346.
29. Sløk, T. and Ludwig, A., 2002, "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries.", IMF Working Papers, 2(1): 1-36.
30. Taylor, J. B., 2008, "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong.", NBER Working Paper Series, 14631: 1-19.
31. Wang, P., 2003, "A Frequency Domain Analysis of Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors.", The Journal of Real Estate Research, 25(3): 325-346.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
105257008
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1052570081
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 游億仙zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) You, Yi-Xianen_US
dc.creator (作者) 游億仙zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) You, Yi-Xianen_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2019 17:00:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Sep-2019 17:00:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2019 17:00:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1052570081en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/125782-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 105257008zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在2002年SARS危機解除、亞洲金融危機造成的通貨緊縮趨勢漸緩後，臺灣的房價迎來了一波連續成長，雖因2008年美國次貸風暴造成臺灣房價短暫下跌情形，之後又保持上升趨勢，直至今日。而傳統認為房地產為火車頭工業，可帶領總體經濟成長，且有研究證實價格上漲應會帶來財富效果、增加民間消費、促進GDP成長，故臺灣房價上漲期間同時應伴隨總體經濟成長，但近年來不斷攀升的房價與房價所得比成為社會熱門議題，甚至造成大量民怨。而近年亦有研究認為房價上漲會帶來排擠效果，可能導致消費減少、有礙總體經濟成長。

於是本研究探討房價上漲帶來的財富效果與排擠效果，以台灣地區的房價與民間消費作為研究對象，以向量自我迴歸模型作為實證方法，探討房價上漲與民間消費的相互關係。研究結果顯示，在房價上漲初期帶來的財富效果可能高於排擠效果，但上漲幅度過高時則會造成較大的排擠效果，導致民間消費減少。惟因研究資料限制，尚無法針對不同所得、是否擁有自有住宅、擁有住宅數量做不同族群分析，進而探討房價上漲對不同族群造成的影響差異。

鑒於研究結果，當房價上漲幅度過高時，可能導致經濟環境衰退，故政府應衡量房價之成長趨勢是否為健康成長，適當透過政策控管房價、房價所得比，避免房價過度上漲，導致國民可支配所得遭到排擠、降低民間消費，反而對整體經濟環境造成負面影響。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) After the SARS crisis in 2002 and deflation caused by the Asian financial crisis slowed down, housing prices of Taiwan kept growing until now except that 2008 financial crisis caused a short decrease of housing prices. Real estate is considered a locomotive that can lead overall economic growth, and researches have confirmed that rising prices should cause wealth effects, increase private consumption, and promote GDP growth. Therefore, economic should grow while housing prices of Taiwan rise. However, the rising ratio of housing price to income has become a hot issue in society, and even caused public grievances. In recent years, some researches have confirmed that rising prices maybe cause crowding-out effect which may reduce consumption and hobble economic growth.
Therefore, this research explores the wealth effect and crowding-out effect caused by rising housing prices. With the housing prices and private consumption in Taiwan as the research object, the vector self-regression model is used as an empirical method to explore the relationship between rising housing price and private consumption. The result show that wealth effect may higher than the crowding-out effect when the housing price rise initially, but it will cause large crowding-out effect resulting a decrease in private consumption when the increase it too high. However, due to the limitation of research data, different impacts caused by rising housing prices have not been analyzed about people with different income, whether they own their own houses, and the number the own.
According to the research results, when the housing price rise is too high, it may lead to economic recession. Therefore, the government should measure whether the growth of housing prices is appropriate, apply some policies to control rise of housing price and the ratio of housing price to income, and avoid excessive housing price increases leading to reduce private consumption which has a negative impact on the overall economic.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的與限制 5
第三節 研究架構與流程 6
第二章 文獻回顧 9
第一節 房地產市場與總體經濟因素之關係 9
第二節 房價與消費之關係 13
第三節 小結 15
第三章 研究方法與研究設計 17
第一節 研究方法 17
第二節 變數選取與資料說明 26
第四章 實證結果分析 29
第一節 房價指數與民間消費金額之關係 29
第二節 房價與民間消費金額之動態關聯 32
第三節 房價與消費因果關係檢定 44
第四節 小結 47
第五章 結論與建議 49
第一節 結論 49
第二節 建議 51
參考文獻 53		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1743265 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1052570081en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民間消費zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財富效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 排擠效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 向量自我迴歸模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) housing priceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) private consumptionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) wealth effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) crowding-out effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) vector self-regression modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 臺灣房價與民間消費之關聯性研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Relationship among Housing Price and Consumptionen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文文獻
1.王健安、林秋瑾、張金鶚，1996，「房地產業對總體經濟活動之影響之分析」，『臺灣銀行季刊』，47(1):1-24。
2.吳森田，1994，「所得、貨幣與房價－近二十年台北地區的觀察」，『住宅學報』，(2):49-65。
3.李佳珍、盧永祥、丁安正、，2012，「臺北市各區人口、家庭所得與房屋價格關聯性之研究」，『商業現代化學刊』，6(3):243-254。
4.李明、黃珊燕、張琦，2011，「我國消費者信心指數與消費函數之間的關係研究」，『經濟縱橫』，(9):110-112。
5.李春風、劉建江、陳先意，2014，「房價上漲時對我國城鎮居民消費的擠出效應研究」，『統計研究』，31(12):32-40。
6.林元興，2005，「不動產市場運作之探討」，『土地問題研究季刊』，4(3):9-19。
7.林佑倫，2015，「房價變動對經濟成長及消費支出之影響」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文
8.林秋瑾、王健安、張金鶚，1997，「房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣於時間上領先、同時、落後關係之探討」，『國家科學委員會研究彙刊；人文及社會科學』，7(1):35-56。
9.林秋瑾、黃佩玲，1995，「住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係之研究－以向量自我迴歸模式（VAR）進行實證」，『國立政治大學學報』，71(2):143-159。
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU201901136en_US