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題名 所得分配與財政赤字之關係
The Relationship between Income Distribution and Fiscal Performance: An Evidence from Taiwan作者 楊宜靜
Yang, Yi-Ching貢獻者 曾巨威
楊宜靜
Yang, Yi-Ching關鍵詞 財政赤字
所得不均
向量自我迴歸模型
結構向量自我迴歸模型
fiscal deficit
income distribution
Vector autoregression (VAR) model
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model日期 2019 上傳時間 5-Sep-2019 17:10:46 (UTC+8) 摘要 財政赤字及所得分配不均，是許多國家所面臨的重要挑戰。我國政府自1989年開始採取擴張性財政政策，因此財政赤字占GDP比重明顯上升。而2000年以來GINI係數仍不斷上升，約在0.33-0.35之間，代表所得分配有惡化之趨勢。若能清楚了解所得分配以及財政赤字之間的關係，將能成為政府未來決策時之重要依據。因此本研究之目標為探討財政赤字發生與所得分配不均之間的交互關係。為了能有效解決當前我國財政赤字與所得不均問題，本研究透過我國1976-2017年時間序列的資料，以向量自我迴歸模型、結構向量自我迴歸模型、因果檢定、衝擊反應函數與預測誤差變異數分解方法來探討所得分配與財政赤字之關聯。\n實證結果顯示，我國財政赤字對所得分配的影響為負向，但所得分配對財政赤字的影響並無統計上顯著性；稅課收入對所得分配的影響為正向的關係；而投資增加，有助於減緩財政赤字狀況。另外，當考量經濟成長、投資率、政府稅課收入與消費支出變數時，研究結果為財政赤字對經濟成長的影響為正向；所得分配對經濟成長的影響則為負向；所得分配對稅課收入影響為負向；財政赤字與政府消費支出則為雙向因果關係。
The fiscal deficit and income inequality are ordeals in many countries worldwide. Since 1989, the Taiwan government has over-exploited fiscal expansion policy causing the percentage of fiscal deficit in GDP dramatically increase. In addition to fiscal deficit, the Gini coefficient keeps rising from 0.33 to about 0.35 from 2000 indicating increasing income inequality in Taiwan society. Hence, this study aims to elucidate the interaction between fiscal deficit and income inequality. The present study adopted the vector autoregression model, structural vector autoregressive model, impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition and causality test combined with the time series data from 1976 to 2017 in Taiwan to study the relation between fiscal deficit and income distribution.\nThe results showed that the fiscal deficit in Taiwan had a negative impact on income distribution. However, the income distribution did not significantly affect the fiscal deficit. There was a positive relationship between tax revenue and income distribution, and, furthermore, an increase in investment can alleviate the fiscal deficit. In addition, when economic growth, investment, tax revenue, and government spending were taken into account, the results indicated that fiscal deficit and economic growth were positively related. Nevertheless, there was a negative relationship between income distribution and tax revenue as well as fiscal deficit and government spending. Finally, there was a two-way causality relation between fiscal deficit and government spending.參考文獻 中文部分\n吳親恩(2007)，〈所得分配惡化對公共支出增加的影響：1980-2004〉，《東吳政治學報》25(1)，73-114。\n黃郁升(2016)，〈如何改善我國財政赤字-開源或節流? 〉，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。\n廖俊傑(2017)，〈財政赤字與所得分配之共整合分析〉，國立高雄應用科技大學財富與稅務管理研究所碩士論文。\n魏伶桂(2007)，〈從全球化經濟及所得分配失衡層面探討財政赤字之擴張〉，國立臺北大學財政研究所碩士論文。\n\n英文部分\nBall, L. M., Furceri, D., Leigh, M. D., & Loungani, M. P. (2013). The distributional effects of fiscal consolidation (No. 13-151). International Monetary Fund.\nBernanke, B. (1986). Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation. In Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1986 (Vol. 25, pp. 49-99).\nCohen, S. B. (2011). Inequality and the Deficit. Georgetown Law and Economics Research Paper, (11-13), 11-101.\nGunasinghe, C. (2016). Fiscal Policy, Economic Growth and Income Inequality: A Case Study on Australia. Working paper.\nGuajardo, J., Leigh, D., & Pescatori, A. (2014). Expansionary austerity? International evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 949-968.\nDavtyan, K. (2016). Interrelation among Economic Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Anglo-Saxon Countries. Hacienda Pública Española, 217(2), 37-66.\nFurceri, D., Jalles, J. T., & Loungani, P. (2015). Fiscal consolidation and inequality in advanced economies: How robust is the link. Inequality and the role of fiscal policy: trends and policy options, IMF, Fiscal Affairs Department, Washington, DC, USA.\nHeimberger, P. (2018). The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: Evidence for 17 OECD Countries over 1978-2013 (No. 79). Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.\nJordà, Ò. (2005). Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. American economic review, 95(1), 161-182.\nJordà, Ò., & Taylor, A. M. (2016). The time for austerity: estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy. The Economic Journal, 126(590), 219-255.\nLarch, M. (2012). Fiscal Performance and Income Inequality: Are Unequal Societies More Deficit‐Prone? Some Cross‐Country Evidence. Kyklos, 65(1), 53-80.\nRawdanowicz, L., Wurzel, E., & Christensen, A. K. (2013). The Equity Implications of Fiscal Consolidation (No. 1013). OECD Publishing.\nRamos, X., & Roca‐Sagales, O. (2008). Long‐Term Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Size and Distribution of the Pie in the UK. Fiscal Studies, 29(3), 387-411.\nSims, C. A. (1977). Macro-Economics and reality," Fisher-Schulti Lecture Discussion Paper No. 77-91. Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota.\nSims, C. A. (1986). Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?. Quarterly Review, (Win), 2-16.\nToda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.\nWoo, J., Bova, E., Kinda, T., & Zhang, Y. S. (2017). Distributional consequences of fiscal adjustments: what do the data say?. IMF Economic Review, 65(2), 273-307.\n\n網站\n行政院主計處，國民所得統計摘要，\nhttps://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=33338&ctNode=3099&mp=1。\n財政部，財政統計資料庫查詢，\nhttp://web02.mof.gov.tw/njswww/WebProxy.aspx?sys=100&funid=defjspf2。\n總體統計資料庫，\nhttps://statdb.dgbas.gov.tw/pxweb/Dialog/statfile9L.asp。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
106255008資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255008 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 曾巨威 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊宜靜 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Yi-Ching en_US dc.creator (作者) 楊宜靜 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yang, Yi-Ching en_US dc.date (日期) 2019 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2019 17:10:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Sep-2019 17:10:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2019 17:10:46 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106255008 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=144284 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106255008 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 財政赤字及所得分配不均，是許多國家所面臨的重要挑戰。我國政府自1989年開始採取擴張性財政政策，因此財政赤字占GDP比重明顯上升。而2000年以來GINI係數仍不斷上升，約在0.33-0.35之間，代表所得分配有惡化之趨勢。若能清楚了解所得分配以及財政赤字之間的關係，將能成為政府未來決策時之重要依據。因此本研究之目標為探討財政赤字發生與所得分配不均之間的交互關係。為了能有效解決當前我國財政赤字與所得不均問題，本研究透過我國1976-2017年時間序列的資料，以向量自我迴歸模型、結構向量自我迴歸模型、因果檢定、衝擊反應函數與預測誤差變異數分解方法來探討所得分配與財政赤字之關聯。\n實證結果顯示，我國財政赤字對所得分配的影響為負向，但所得分配對財政赤字的影響並無統計上顯著性；稅課收入對所得分配的影響為正向的關係；而投資增加，有助於減緩財政赤字狀況。另外，當考量經濟成長、投資率、政府稅課收入與消費支出變數時，研究結果為財政赤字對經濟成長的影響為正向；所得分配對經濟成長的影響則為負向；所得分配對稅課收入影響為負向；財政赤字與政府消費支出則為雙向因果關係。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The fiscal deficit and income inequality are ordeals in many countries worldwide. Since 1989, the Taiwan government has over-exploited fiscal expansion policy causing the percentage of fiscal deficit in GDP dramatically increase. In addition to fiscal deficit, the Gini coefficient keeps rising from 0.33 to about 0.35 from 2000 indicating increasing income inequality in Taiwan society. Hence, this study aims to elucidate the interaction between fiscal deficit and income inequality. The present study adopted the vector autoregression model, structural vector autoregressive model, impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition and causality test combined with the time series data from 1976 to 2017 in Taiwan to study the relation between fiscal deficit and income distribution.\nThe results showed that the fiscal deficit in Taiwan had a negative impact on income distribution. However, the income distribution did not significantly affect the fiscal deficit. There was a positive relationship between tax revenue and income distribution, and, furthermore, an increase in investment can alleviate the fiscal deficit. In addition, when economic growth, investment, tax revenue, and government spending were taken into account, the results indicated that fiscal deficit and economic growth were positively related. Nevertheless, there was a negative relationship between income distribution and tax revenue as well as fiscal deficit and government spending. Finally, there was a two-way causality relation between fiscal deficit and government spending. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1\n第一節 研究背景與動機 1\n第二節 研究方法與架構 3\n第三節 章節安排 4\n第二章 文獻回顧 5\n第一節 國外實證文獻 5\n第二節 我國實證文獻 8\n第三節 本章小結 9\n第三章 我國財政狀況與所得分配 13\n第四章 研究方法 18\n第一節 理論基礎說明 18\n第二節 VAR向量自我迴歸模型 21\n第三節 資料來源與變數說明 25\n第五章 實證結果分析 27\n第一節 VAR結果分析 27\n第二節 SVAR結果分析 35\n第三節 VAR之結構分析 37\n第六章 結論 54\n參考文獻 56 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1343847 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255008 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政赤字 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得不均 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 向量自我迴歸模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 結構向量自我迴歸模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) fiscal deficit en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) income distribution en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Vector autoregression (VAR) model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model en_US dc.title (題名) 所得分配與財政赤字之關係 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Relationship between Income Distribution and Fiscal Performance: An Evidence from Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分\n吳親恩(2007)，〈所得分配惡化對公共支出增加的影響：1980-2004〉，《東吳政治學報》25(1)，73-114。\n黃郁升(2016)，〈如何改善我國財政赤字-開源或節流? 〉，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。\n廖俊傑(2017)，〈財政赤字與所得分配之共整合分析〉，國立高雄應用科技大學財富與稅務管理研究所碩士論文。\n魏伶桂(2007)，〈從全球化經濟及所得分配失衡層面探討財政赤字之擴張〉，國立臺北大學財政研究所碩士論文。\n\n英文部分\nBall, L. M., Furceri, D., Leigh, M. D., & Loungani, M. P. (2013). The distributional effects of fiscal consolidation (No. 13-151). International Monetary Fund.\nBernanke, B. (1986). Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation. In Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1986 (Vol. 25, pp. 49-99).\nCohen, S. B. (2011). Inequality and the Deficit. Georgetown Law and Economics Research Paper, (11-13), 11-101.\nGunasinghe, C. (2016). Fiscal Policy, Economic Growth and Income Inequality: A Case Study on Australia. Working paper.\nGuajardo, J., Leigh, D., & Pescatori, A. (2014). Expansionary austerity? International evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 949-968.\nDavtyan, K. (2016). Interrelation among Economic Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Anglo-Saxon Countries. Hacienda Pública Española, 217(2), 37-66.\nFurceri, D., Jalles, J. T., & Loungani, P. (2015). Fiscal consolidation and inequality in advanced economies: How robust is the link. Inequality and the role of fiscal policy: trends and policy options, IMF, Fiscal Affairs Department, Washington, DC, USA.\nHeimberger, P. (2018). The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: Evidence for 17 OECD Countries over 1978-2013 (No. 79). Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.\nJordà, Ò. (2005). Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. American economic review, 95(1), 161-182.\nJordà, Ò., & Taylor, A. M. (2016). The time for austerity: estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy. The Economic Journal, 126(590), 219-255.\nLarch, M. (2012). Fiscal Performance and Income Inequality: Are Unequal Societies More Deficit‐Prone? Some Cross‐Country Evidence. Kyklos, 65(1), 53-80.\nRawdanowicz, L., Wurzel, E., & Christensen, A. K. (2013). The Equity Implications of Fiscal Consolidation (No. 1013). OECD Publishing.\nRamos, X., & Roca‐Sagales, O. (2008). Long‐Term Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Size and Distribution of the Pie in the UK. Fiscal Studies, 29(3), 387-411.\nSims, C. A. (1977). Macro-Economics and reality," Fisher-Schulti Lecture Discussion Paper No. 77-91. Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota.\nSims, C. A. (1986). Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?. Quarterly Review, (Win), 2-16.\nToda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.\nWoo, J., Bova, E., Kinda, T., & Zhang, Y. S. (2017). Distributional consequences of fiscal adjustments: what do the data say?. IMF Economic Review, 65(2), 273-307.\n\n網站\n行政院主計處，國民所得統計摘要，\nhttps://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=33338&ctNode=3099&mp=1。\n財政部，財政統計資料庫查詢，\nhttp://web02.mof.gov.tw/njswww/WebProxy.aspx?sys=100&funid=defjspf2。\n總體統計資料庫，\nhttps://statdb.dgbas.gov.tw/pxweb/Dialog/statfile9L.asp。 zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU201900759 en_US
