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題名 川普的中國外交政策： 攻勢現實主義觀點
Donald Trump’s foreign policy Towards China: The offensive realist perspective作者 陳劭康
Chen, Shao-Kang貢獻者 盧業中
Lu, Yeh-Chung
陳劭康
Chen, Shao-Kang關鍵詞 川普
美國外交
「美國優先」政策
美中關係
攻勢現實主義
Trump
American foreign policy
“America First” policy
U.S.-China relations
Offensive realism日期 2019 上傳時間 5-Sep-2019 17:20:16 (UTC+8) 摘要 本篇論文旨在探討美國總統唐納・川普的「美國優先」外交政策對中美關係的影響。為了深入了解川普總統對中美關係的認知與兩大強權間發生經濟或軍事衝突的潛在危險，研究者以攻勢現實主義與肯尼思・華爾茲的三個「層次分析法」做為論述的基礎。川普政府視中國為美國國家利益最大的威脅，而川普總統的政策目標是扭轉過去兩國在爭奪全球領導地位的長期競賽中有利於中國卻損害美國利益的雙邊關係。為了跳脫這種互動框架，川普政府採行「美國優先」策略，表明在中國改變其長久以來在諸多經貿與安全議題上不公平的行為前，美國意圖採取對抗性的立場。川普政府為達成目標而採用的談判策略凸顯其對美中衝突較高的容忍性以及反制中方不當行徑的意願。本篇論文的結論為川普政府有意透過「美國優先」策略削弱中國的經濟發展、遏止其強化軍事實力、並超越美國在印太區域的影響力。然而，依據攻勢現實主義的邏輯，這些預防性的措施可能仍難以阻止中共發展成一個真正足以威脅美國霸權地位的強權國家。即便川普總統採取合乎現實主義的外交策略且試圖擴大與中國的相對權力，也僅能推遲中美戰爭爆發的時間點。事實上，當領導人特質等重要的非結構層次因素也符合攻勢現實主義的法則時，大國政治可能更難以跳脫「修昔底德斯陷阱」。
This thesis aims to scrutinize the impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy on the U.S.-China relations. To better understand how President Trump views the current U.S.-China relationship and the potential dangers of economic or military confrontations between the two great powers, the author employs the theory of offensive realism and Kenneth Waltz’s three “levels-of-analysis” as the basis of reasoning.The Trump administration has identified China as the greatest threat to U.S. national security, and President Trump’s policy aims to reverse the past trajectory of a bilateral relation that favored China and disadvantaged the United States in their long-run competition for global leadership. To break loose from that trajectory, the Trump administration has adopted the “America first” approach which marks the United States’ intention to take a confrontational stance until Beijing changes its long-standing unfair practices on a wide range of economic and security issues. The Trump administration’s negotiation strategy for achieving its objectives highlights their greater tolerance for friction with China and their willingness to push back on Chinese misbehaviors.This paper concludes that through the “America first” strategy, the Trump administration seeks to diminish the Chinese economic development, undermine its military advancements, and prevent it from overwhelming American influences in the Indo-Pacific region. However, according to the logic of offensive realism, these precautionary measures may still fail to prevent the PRC from evolving into a veritable great power that threatens the American hegemony. Even as President Trump adopts a realist stratagem and seeks to increase the relative power against China, he can only delay the detonation point of a U.S.-China war. In fact, when non-structural factors like state leaders’ characteristics conforms to the tenets of offensive realism, it will be even more difficult for great powers politics to escape the “Thucydides’s Trap.”參考文獻 BibliographyBooksAllison, Graham T. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? London: Scribe, 2018.Bader, Jeffrey A. Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2013.Bromley, Simon. American Power and the Prospects for International Order. Cambridge: Polity, 2008.Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books, 2016.Campbell, Kurt M. The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia. New York: Twelve, 2016.Chace, James. 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國立政治大學
外交學系
104253003資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104253003 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 盧業中 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lu, Yeh-Chung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳劭康 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Shao-Kang en_US dc.creator (作者) 陳劭康 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chen, Shao-Kang en_US dc.date (日期) 2019 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2019 17:20:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Sep-2019 17:20:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2019 17:20:16 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104253003 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/125867 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 104253003 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本篇論文旨在探討美國總統唐納・川普的「美國優先」外交政策對中美關係的影響。為了深入了解川普總統對中美關係的認知與兩大強權間發生經濟或軍事衝突的潛在危險，研究者以攻勢現實主義與肯尼思・華爾茲的三個「層次分析法」做為論述的基礎。川普政府視中國為美國國家利益最大的威脅，而川普總統的政策目標是扭轉過去兩國在爭奪全球領導地位的長期競賽中有利於中國卻損害美國利益的雙邊關係。為了跳脫這種互動框架，川普政府採行「美國優先」策略，表明在中國改變其長久以來在諸多經貿與安全議題上不公平的行為前，美國意圖採取對抗性的立場。川普政府為達成目標而採用的談判策略凸顯其對美中衝突較高的容忍性以及反制中方不當行徑的意願。本篇論文的結論為川普政府有意透過「美國優先」策略削弱中國的經濟發展、遏止其強化軍事實力、並超越美國在印太區域的影響力。然而，依據攻勢現實主義的邏輯，這些預防性的措施可能仍難以阻止中共發展成一個真正足以威脅美國霸權地位的強權國家。即便川普總統採取合乎現實主義的外交策略且試圖擴大與中國的相對權力，也僅能推遲中美戰爭爆發的時間點。事實上，當領導人特質等重要的非結構層次因素也符合攻勢現實主義的法則時，大國政治可能更難以跳脫「修昔底德斯陷阱」。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis aims to scrutinize the impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy on the U.S.-China relations. To better understand how President Trump views the current U.S.-China relationship and the potential dangers of economic or military confrontations between the two great powers, the author employs the theory of offensive realism and Kenneth Waltz’s three “levels-of-analysis” as the basis of reasoning.The Trump administration has identified China as the greatest threat to U.S. national security, and President Trump’s policy aims to reverse the past trajectory of a bilateral relation that favored China and disadvantaged the United States in their long-run competition for global leadership. To break loose from that trajectory, the Trump administration has adopted the “America first” approach which marks the United States’ intention to take a confrontational stance until Beijing changes its long-standing unfair practices on a wide range of economic and security issues. The Trump administration’s negotiation strategy for achieving its objectives highlights their greater tolerance for friction with China and their willingness to push back on Chinese misbehaviors.This paper concludes that through the “America first” strategy, the Trump administration seeks to diminish the Chinese economic development, undermine its military advancements, and prevent it from overwhelming American influences in the Indo-Pacific region. However, according to the logic of offensive realism, these precautionary measures may still fail to prevent the PRC from evolving into a veritable great power that threatens the American hegemony. Even as President Trump adopts a realist stratagem and seeks to increase the relative power against China, he can only delay the detonation point of a U.S.-China war. In fact, when non-structural factors like state leaders’ characteristics conforms to the tenets of offensive realism, it will be even more difficult for great powers politics to escape the “Thucydides’s Trap.” en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1: Introduction 11.1 Background and Motivation 11.2 Research Questions 81.3 Literature Review and Offensive Realism 111.4 Research Methodology 221.5 Research Limitations 251.6 Chapter Arrangements 26Chapter 2: Trump’s Perception of the American National Capability 292.1 Trump’s Discourse and the “America First” Foreign Policy 312.2 Trump’s Discourse on U.S. Economic Capability 362.3 Trump’s Discourse on U.S. Military Capability 472.4 Chapter Summary 55Chapter 3: Trump and the U.S.-China Economy Relations 573.1 Impacts of the PRC’s Economic Rise on American Unipolarity 603.2 The U.S. Perception of Xi Jinping’s Economic Policy 663.3 Trump’s Strategy to Counter China’s Economic Threats 763.4 Chapter Summary 78Chapter 4: Trump and the U.S.-China Military Relations 794.1 The PRC’s Military Strategy under Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” 804.2 The U.S. Military Strategy Under Trump’s “Make America Great Again” 934.3 Thucydides’s Trap: Is an Inescapable War Approaching? 1034.4 Impacts of U.S.-China Contentions 1104.5 Chapter Summary 116Chapter 5: Conclusion 1175.1 Research Findings 1175.2 Implications for Future Studies 1265.3 Closing Remarks 129Bibliography 131Appendix: Timeline of the U.S.-China Trade War (2017-2019) 161 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2324832 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104253003 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 川普 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國外交 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 「美國優先」政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美中關係 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 攻勢現實主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Trump en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) American foreign policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) “America First” policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S.-China relations en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Offensive realism en_US dc.title (題名) 川普的中國外交政策： 攻勢現實主義觀點 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Donald Trump’s foreign policy Towards China: The offensive realist perspective en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) BibliographyBooksAllison, Graham T. 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