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題名 中美貿易戰對台灣與巴西貿易關係的影響
The influence of the Sino-US trade war on the Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship作者 宋凱莉
Leite, Kelly Santana貢獻者 薛健吾
Chienwu Hsueh
宋凱莉
Kelly Santana Leite關鍵詞 中美貿易戰中
美國
中國
巴西
臺灣
Sino-US trade war
USA
China
Brazil
Taiwan日期 2019 上傳時間 5-Sep-2019 17:31:51 (UTC+8) 摘要 在當前中美貿易戰中，許多國家都遭受到波及。除了中美兩國直接受到衝擊，其他國家間接地也受到了不少影響。 然而有些國家得到的影響比較正面；自家貿易因而得到改善，本論文即在探討這兩大問題。首先，中美貿易是否會影響巴西與台灣的貿易關係，為了找出答案，筆者分析了 2007 年到 2018 年間的貿易值及交易產品間之關係。再者，本論文分析美國總統川普對中國發動的經濟制裁策略是否有效，因為在某種程度上川普的策略影響了中國的行為，但中國並沒有全然被牽著鼻子走。結論是中美貿易戰的確影響了巴西與台灣間的貿易關係，但此結果並非中國有意造成。貿易戰使巴西到中國的出口量快速增加，卻使巴西到台灣的出口量大大減少，然而這兩件事之間似乎沒有人為操作，僅是因果關係的影響，但這個議題還有待後人更深入的研究。
In the current Sino-US trade war many have been the consequences of this war, whichdidn’t only affect the two main nations but even if indirectly it has caused a spill over effect onmany other nations. However, some might have had a more positive consequence than others inwhich it improved their trade and this research focused on two main puzzles to be explored. First,whether the Sino-US trade would affect Brazil-Taiwan trade relation and to obtain suchinformation, trade value and traded products were analysed over the period of 2007-2018. Second,to find out if Donald Trump’s strategy to threat China by imposing the economic sanction on Chinawas successful, which happened to be to certain extent as it influenced China’s behaviour butdidn’t cause China to accept Trump’s imposition. As a conclusion, the Sino-US trade war had animpact on Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship but it wasn’t intentionally caused by China, but ithappened to Brazil’s exportation to China to rapidly increase and Brazil’s exportation to Taiwansuffering a great decrease but there seems not to be any direct purpose for it to happen but just acause-effect relation which should be explored more deeply in future research.參考文獻 Allen, Susan H. (2005) The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure.International Interactions 31(2):117–138.Allen, Susan H. (2008) Political Institutions and Constrained Response to EconomicSanctions. Foreign Policy Analysis 4(3):255–274.Baipai, P. (2019). Investopedia. Retrieved May 21, 2019, from The World`s Top 20 Economies:https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/Bapat, N., Heinrich, T., Kobayashi, Y., & Morgan, T. (2013). Determinants of Sanctioins Effectiveness:Sensitive Analysis Using New Data. Empirical and Theoritical Reseach in InternationalRelations, 39:1, pp. 79-98.BBC. (2018, Sep 18). US-China trade row: What has happened so far? Retrieved October 12, 2018,from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44529600Bob, B. (2018). Trump`s trade war with China is intensifying — here`s what tariffs are, and how theycould affect you. Retrieved December 31, 2018, from Business Insider:https://www.businessinsider.my/trump-tariffs-what-is-a-tariff-meaning-for-pricesconsumer-2018-3/Bolsonaro, C. (2018). Pequeno resumo sobre Bolsonaro na Ásia (Japão, Coréia do Sul e Taiwan).Brazil. Retrieved February 20, 2019, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keSDkJSUlZ0Brasil. (2019). Mensagem do Presidente ao Congresso Nacional. Retrieved May 19, 2019, from PortalOficial da Presidência da República do Brasil:http://www2.planalto.gov.br/mensagemdopresidente/MensagemaoCongresso2019.pdfBureau of Trade - Taiwan. (2019). Trade Statistics. 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Why the China-US trade war truce could be a raw deal for Brazil’s soybean farmers.Retrieved December 20, 2018, from South China Morning post:https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2176373/why-china-us-trade-wartruce-could-be-raw-deal-brazils-soybeanHadfield, F., Holleyman, R., Marx, A., & Toubia, S. (2018). USTR Finalizes List 2 of Section 301 Tariffson Chinese Products. Retrieved October 15, 2018, from Crowell & Moring:https://www.cmtradelaw.com/2018/08/ustr-finalizes-list-2-of-section-301-tariffsHadfield, F., Marx, A., Brew, J., & Goetz, E. (2018). USTR Publishes Notice Formalizing 10% Tariffs onSection 301 List 3 on Sept. 24. CM’s Unofficial List of the Affected HTS Codes Provided Here.Retrieved October 10, 2018, from Crowell & Moring: fromhttps://www.cmtradelaw.com/2018/09/ustr-publishes-notice-formalizing-10-tariffs-onsection-301-list-3-on-sept-24-cms-unofficial-list-of-the-affected-hts-codes-provided-here/Hadfield, F.; Gao, Y.; Goetz, E. (2018). China’s Retaliatory Tariffs on $60 Billion in U.S. Goods – List ofAffected HTS Subheadings. Retrieved October 11, 2018, from Crowell & Moring.:https://www.cmtradelaw.com/2018/08/china-threatens-new-retaliatory-tariffs-on-60-billion-in-u-s-goods-releases-list-of-affected-hts-subheadings/Huang, C. (2018). China will lose trade war with the us, then things will get really nasty. RetrievedDecember 18, 2018, from South China Morning News: https://www.scmp.com/weekasia/opinion/article/2166006/china-will-lose-trade-war-us-then-things-will-get-really-nastyItamaraty. (2018). People’s Republic of China. Retrieved December 13, 2018, from Ministry ofForeign Affairs Brazil.: http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/en/ficha-pais/5988-people-s-republicof-chinaJohnston, M. (2015). China`s Top Trading Partners. Retrieved November 13, 2018, fromInvestopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/092815/chinas-top-tradingpartners.aspKnoema. (2019). Knoema Corporation. 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Retrieved February 20, 2019, fromEncyclopædia Britannica: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jair-BolsonaroWhallen, C. (2019). China Has Already Lost the Trade War. Retrieved May 20, 2019, from TheAmerican Conservative: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/china-hasalready-lost-the-trade-war/Workman, D. (2018). China’s Top 10 Imports. Retrieved November 21, 2018, from World TopExports: http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-10-imports/Workman, D. (2019, April 6). China’s Top Trading Partners. Retrieved May 3, 2019, from World`s TopExports: http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/WTO. (n.d.). China and the WTO. Retrieved October 20, 2018, from World Trade Organization:https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/china_e.htm 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
106862018資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862018 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 薛健吾 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chienwu Hsueh en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 宋凱莉 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Kelly Santana Leite en_US dc.creator (作者) 宋凱莉 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Leite, Kelly Santana en_US dc.date (日期) 2019 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2019 17:31:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Sep-2019 17:31:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2019 17:31:51 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106862018 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/125930 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106862018 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在當前中美貿易戰中，許多國家都遭受到波及。除了中美兩國直接受到衝擊，其他國家間接地也受到了不少影響。 然而有些國家得到的影響比較正面；自家貿易因而得到改善，本論文即在探討這兩大問題。首先，中美貿易是否會影響巴西與台灣的貿易關係，為了找出答案，筆者分析了 2007 年到 2018 年間的貿易值及交易產品間之關係。再者，本論文分析美國總統川普對中國發動的經濟制裁策略是否有效，因為在某種程度上川普的策略影響了中國的行為，但中國並沒有全然被牽著鼻子走。結論是中美貿易戰的確影響了巴西與台灣間的貿易關係，但此結果並非中國有意造成。貿易戰使巴西到中國的出口量快速增加，卻使巴西到台灣的出口量大大減少，然而這兩件事之間似乎沒有人為操作，僅是因果關係的影響，但這個議題還有待後人更深入的研究。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In the current Sino-US trade war many have been the consequences of this war, whichdidn’t only affect the two main nations but even if indirectly it has caused a spill over effect onmany other nations. However, some might have had a more positive consequence than others inwhich it improved their trade and this research focused on two main puzzles to be explored. First,whether the Sino-US trade would affect Brazil-Taiwan trade relation and to obtain suchinformation, trade value and traded products were analysed over the period of 2007-2018. Second,to find out if Donald Trump’s strategy to threat China by imposing the economic sanction on Chinawas successful, which happened to be to certain extent as it influenced China’s behaviour butdidn’t cause China to accept Trump’s imposition. As a conclusion, the Sino-US trade war had animpact on Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship but it wasn’t intentionally caused by China, but ithappened to Brazil’s exportation to China to rapidly increase and Brazil’s exportation to Taiwansuffering a great decrease but there seems not to be any direct purpose for it to happen but just acause-effect relation which should be explored more deeply in future research. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgement IVAbstract VAbstract (Chinese) VList of figures VIAbbreviations VIIChapter 1: Sino-US trade war 11.1 Introduction 11.2 The Trade war summary 21.3 Research question 91.4 Research limitation 101.5 Structure 10Chapter 2: Literature Review 122.1 The US will triumph 122.2 China will triumph 142.3 Both will hurt, but who hurts more 152.4 No winners 182.5 The effect of the Sino-US trade war on other countries 202.6 Theoretical Framework 202.7 Literature review summary 22Chapter 3: An analysis of Sino-USA Taiwan and Sino-US Brazil trade relations 243.1 Sino-US and Taiwan 243.2 Sino-US and Brazil 373.3 Summary 51Chapter 4: An analysis of Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship 524.1 Brazil-Taiwan trade history 524.2 The impact of the Sino-USA trade war on Brazil-Taiwan relationship 644.3 Summary 65Chapter 5: Conclusion 66Reference 68 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2133879 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862018 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中美貿易戰中 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巴西 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺灣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sino-US trade war en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) USA en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Brazil en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan en_US dc.title (題名) 中美貿易戰對台灣與巴西貿易關係的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The influence of the Sino-US trade war on the Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Allen, Susan H. (2005) The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure.International Interactions 31(2):117–138.Allen, Susan H. (2008) Political Institutions and Constrained Response to EconomicSanctions. Foreign Policy Analysis 4(3):255–274.Baipai, P. (2019). Investopedia. Retrieved May 21, 2019, from The World`s Top 20 Economies:https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/Bapat, N., Heinrich, T., Kobayashi, Y., & Morgan, T. (2013). Determinants of Sanctioins Effectiveness:Sensitive Analysis Using New Data. Empirical and Theoritical Reseach in InternationalRelations, 39:1, pp. 79-98.BBC. (2018, Sep 18). US-China trade row: What has happened so far? Retrieved October 12, 2018,from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44529600Bob, B. (2018). Trump`s trade war with China is intensifying — here`s what tariffs are, and how theycould affect you. Retrieved December 31, 2018, from Business Insider:https://www.businessinsider.my/trump-tariffs-what-is-a-tariff-meaning-for-pricesconsumer-2018-3/Bolsonaro, C. (2018). Pequeno resumo sobre Bolsonaro na Ásia (Japão, Coréia do Sul e Taiwan).Brazil. Retrieved February 20, 2019, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keSDkJSUlZ0Brasil. (2019). Mensagem do Presidente ao Congresso Nacional. Retrieved May 19, 2019, from PortalOficial da Presidência da República do Brasil:http://www2.planalto.gov.br/mensagemdopresidente/MensagemaoCongresso2019.pdfBureau of Trade - Taiwan. (2019). Trade Statistics. Retrieved May 20, 2019, from Bureau of ForeignTrade: https://cus93.trade.gov.tw/FSCE030F/FSCE030FBureau, U. S. (2008). Trade in Goods with China. Retrieved November 13, 2018, from United StatesCensus Bureau: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.htmlBurton, G. (2018, November 9). What President Bolsonaro Means for China-Brazil Relations.Retrieved August 4, 2019, from The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2018/11/whatpresident-bolsonaro-means-for-china-brazil-relations/Chen, D. (2018). The US-China Trade War Has No Winners—Yet. Retrieved January 21, 2019, fromThe diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/the-us-china-trade-war-has-no-winnersyet/Chin, K., Frank, J., & Silvertein, S. (2018). The legendary economist who predicted the housing crisissays the US will win the trade war. Retrieved October 3, 2018, from Business insider:https://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-legendary-economist-trade-war-outlooksays-us-will-win-2018-10Elmer, K. (2018). Why the China-US trade war truce could be a raw deal for Brazil’s soybean farmers.Retrieved December 20, 2018, from South China Morning post:https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2176373/why-china-us-trade-wartruce-could-be-raw-deal-brazils-soybeanHadfield, F., Holleyman, R., Marx, A., & Toubia, S. 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