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題名 房價與婚育決策之關聯
The impact of house price on marry and fertility decisions作者 林雅葶
Lin, Ya-Ting貢獻者 連賢明
林雅葶
Lin, Ya-Ting關鍵詞 房價
房屋持有
結婚
生育
House price
Homeownership
Marry Decisions
Fertility Decisions日期 2019 上傳時間 3-Oct-2019 17:20:49 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究利用財政部財政資訊中心之稅務資料，分析房價對未婚個人結婚決策及已婚女性家庭生育決策的影響，並檢視房屋持有與否的差異。本文使用房屋持有之工具變數以最小平方法（OLS）進行分析，實證結果顯示，房價變動率的提高對適婚年齡個人之結婚機率有顯著負向的影響，加劇晚婚的現象；同時，男性房屋持有者相較沒有房屋者更有可能結婚，女性房屋持有者的結婚機率則較沒有房屋者低。對婚後三年內的夫妻而言，房價變動率的變動與生育機率之關聯亦是負向的，且婚前提早開始持有房屋的家庭相較於沒有房屋者更願意生育。另一方面，結婚當年的房價變動率對婚後生育子女數有負向的影響，住房成本提高帶來的相對衝擊感可能使夫妻降低其期望子女數。結婚買房通常密不可分，年輕人為了買房更有可能延後結婚生子，甚至買不起房就不結婚，進而導致整體生育率的下降。政府應藉由將房價控制在合理範圍內，或是提出降低住房負擔的相關政策，以協助年輕人成家，進而改善低生育率的問題。
This study uses taxation data from 2008 to 2014 to analyze the impact of housing prices on marriage decisions and fertility decisions, and to examine the differences in whether hold a house or not. We use the Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS) analysis. The empirical results show that the increase in house price change rate has a significant negative impact on the marriage rate. On the other hand, male homeowners are more likely to marry than those without homes, and female homeowners have a lower chance of marriage. For women within three years after marriage, the relationship between house price change rate and fertility rate is also negative, and families who hold houses are more willing to give birth than those who do not. Meanwhile, the rate of house price change in the year of marriage has a negative impact on the number of children born after marriage. Marriage and homeownership are often inseparable in Taiwan. People are more likely to delay marriage and have children in order to buy a house. They will not get married until they can afford a house, which will lead to a decline in the fertility rate. It will be important for government to propose policies which can reduce housing burdens, thereby improving the problem of low fertility rate.參考文獻 參考文獻(一)中文文獻林佩萱，2015，〈家戶購屋與生育行為關係：資源排擠與動機刺激〉。《住宅學報》24(1): 89-115。林佩萱、張金鶚，2016，〈沒有房子不生孩子？買了房子不敢生孩子？購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究〉。《臺灣社會學刊》59: 93-138。陳文意、周美伶、林玉惠、陳明吉，2013，〈資抑制房價以提高生育率：以台北都會區為例〉。《都市與計劃》40(2): 191-216。陳佳欣、陳彥仲，2010，〈結婚決策對首次購屋決策影響之內生性分析—台灣地區男性受訪者之實證現象探討〉。《住宅學報》19(1): 59-80。陳南光、王泓仁，2011，〈資產價格變動對民間消費支出影響效果之研究〉。《中央銀行季刊》33(1): 7-40。楊靜利、李大正、陳寬政，2006，〈台灣傳統婚配空間的變化與婚姻行為之變遷〉。《人口學刊》33: 1-32。駱明慶，2007，〈台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際〉。《研究臺灣》3: 37-40。 (二)英文文獻Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, 209-240. Columbia University Press.Becker, G. S. (1973). A Theory of Marriage: Part I. Journal of Political Economy, 81(4), 813-846.Becker, G. S. & H. Gregg Lewis (1973). On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), 279-288.Becker, G. S. (1981). A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Blossfeld, H.P. & Huinink, J. (1991). Human Capital Investment or Norms of Role Transition? How Women’s Schooling and Career Affect the Process of Family Formation. American Journal of Sociology, 97(1), 143-168Bowmakera, S.W. & Emerson, P.M. (2015). Bricks, Mortar, and Wedding Bells: Does the Cost of Housing Affect the Marriage Rate in the US? Eastern Economic Journal, 41, 411-429Campbell, J. & Cocco, J. (2007). How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data. Journal of Monetary Economics,(54), 591–621.Cho, S.W. (2010). Household wealth accumulation and portfolio choices in Korea. Journal of Housing Economics,19(1), 13–25.Dettling, L. J. & Kearney, M. S. (2014). House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby. Journal of Public Economics, 110, 82–100.Farnham, M., Schmidt, L. & Sevak, P. (2011). House Prices and Marital Stability. American Economic Review, 101, 615–19.Gholipour H.F. & Farzanegan M.R. (2015). Marriage crisis and housing costs: Empirical evidence from provinces of Iran. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, 107-123Gyourko J., Mayer C. & Sinai T. (2015). Superstar Cities. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, 5(4), 167-199Haurin, D.R., Hendershott, P.H. & Kim, D. (1993). The Impact of Real Rents and Wages on Household Formation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 75(2), 284-293Holland J.A. (2012). Home and Where the Heart Is: Marriage Timing and Joint Home Purchase. European Journal of Population, 28(1), 65-89Hughes, M.E. (2003). Home Economics: Metropolitan Labor and Housing Markets and Domestic Arrangements in Young Adulthood. Social Forces, 81(4), 1399-1429Ineichen, B. (1980). Housing Factors in the Timing of Weddings and First Pregnancies. The Sociological Review, 28(1), 127-140Jones, G.W. (2007). Delayed Marriage and Very Low Fertility in Pacific Asia. Population and Development Review, 33(3), 453-478Jones, G.W. & Gubhaju, B. (2009). Emerging trends in marriage in the low fertility countries of East and Southeast Asia. Asian Population Studies, 5(3), 237-265Jones, G.W. (2012). Late marriage and low fertility in Singapore: the limits of policy. The Japanese Journal of Population, 10(1), 89-101Jones, G.W. & Yeung, W.J. (2014). Marriage in Asia. Journal of Family Issues, 1-17Kye, B. (2008). Delay in First Marriage and First Childbearing in Korea-Trends in Educational Differentials. California Center for Population Research On-Line Working Paper SeriesLee, K.O. & Painter, G (2014). What Happens to Household Formation in a Recession? Journal of Urban Economics, 76 , 93-109Lin, P.S., Chang, C.O. & Sing, T. F. (2015). Do housing options affect child birth decisions? Evidence from Taiwan. Urban Studies, 53(16), 3527-3546Lo, K.T. (2012). The Crowding-out Effect of Homeownership on Fertility. European Journal of family and economic issues, 33 (1), 108-117Lovenheim, M. F. & Mumford K. J. (2013). Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95, 464–475.Mizutani, N. (2015). The Effects of Housing Wealth on Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Japan. Economics Bulletin, 35(4)Moffitt, R.A. (2000). Female wages, male wages, and the economic model of marriage: The basic evidence. The Ties That Bind: Perspectives on Marriage and Cohabitation, 302-319Mulder, C.H. & Billari, F.C. (2010). Homeownership Regimes and Low Fertility. Housing Studies,, 25 (4), 527-541Murphy, M.J. & Sullivan, O. (1985). Housing tenure and family formation in contemporary Britain. European Sociological Review, 1 (3), 230-243Oppenheimer, V.K. (1988). A Theory of Marriage Timing. American Journal of Sociology. 94. 563-591.Oppenheimer, V.K. (2003). Cohabiting and Marriage during Young Men’s Career-Development Process. Demography, 40(1), 127-149Ortalo-Magne, F. & Rady, S. (2006). Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraint. Review of Economic Studies, 73 (2), 459-485.Raymo, J.M. (1998). Later Marriages or Fewer? Changes in the Marital Behavior of Japanese Women. Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(4), 1023-1034Raymo, J.M. (2003). Educational attainment and the transition to first marriage among Japanese women. Demography, 40(1), 83-103Retherford, R.D., Ogawa, N. & Matsukura, R. (2001). Late Marriage and Less Marriage in Japan. Population and Development Revie, 27(1), 65-102Sassler, S. & Schoen, R. (1999). The Effect of Attitudes and Economic Activity on Marriage. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 147-159Sweeney, V.K. (2002). Two Decades of Family Change: The Shifting Economic Foundations of Marriage. American Sociological Review, 67(1), 132-147Wrenn ,II, D. H & Yi, J. & Zhang, B. (2019). House prices and marriage entry in China. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 74, 118–130.Yi, J. & Zhang, J. (2010). The effect of house price on fertility: Evidence from Hong Kong. Economic Inquiry, 48(3):635-650. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
106255013資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255013 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 連賢明 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林雅葶 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Ya-Ting en_US dc.creator (作者) 林雅葶 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lin, Ya-Ting en_US dc.date (日期) 2019 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Oct-2019 17:20:49 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Oct-2019 17:20:49 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Oct-2019 17:20:49 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106255013 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/126595 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106255013 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究利用財政部財政資訊中心之稅務資料，分析房價對未婚個人結婚決策及已婚女性家庭生育決策的影響，並檢視房屋持有與否的差異。本文使用房屋持有之工具變數以最小平方法（OLS）進行分析，實證結果顯示，房價變動率的提高對適婚年齡個人之結婚機率有顯著負向的影響，加劇晚婚的現象；同時，男性房屋持有者相較沒有房屋者更有可能結婚，女性房屋持有者的結婚機率則較沒有房屋者低。對婚後三年內的夫妻而言，房價變動率的變動與生育機率之關聯亦是負向的，且婚前提早開始持有房屋的家庭相較於沒有房屋者更願意生育。另一方面，結婚當年的房價變動率對婚後生育子女數有負向的影響，住房成本提高帶來的相對衝擊感可能使夫妻降低其期望子女數。結婚買房通常密不可分，年輕人為了買房更有可能延後結婚生子，甚至買不起房就不結婚，進而導致整體生育率的下降。政府應藉由將房價控制在合理範圍內，或是提出降低住房負擔的相關政策，以協助年輕人成家，進而改善低生育率的問題。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study uses taxation data from 2008 to 2014 to analyze the impact of housing prices on marriage decisions and fertility decisions, and to examine the differences in whether hold a house or not. We use the Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS) analysis. The empirical results show that the increase in house price change rate has a significant negative impact on the marriage rate. On the other hand, male homeowners are more likely to marry than those without homes, and female homeowners have a lower chance of marriage. For women within three years after marriage, the relationship between house price change rate and fertility rate is also negative, and families who hold houses are more willing to give birth than those who do not. Meanwhile, the rate of house price change in the year of marriage has a negative impact on the number of children born after marriage. Marriage and homeownership are often inseparable in Taiwan. People are more likely to delay marriage and have children in order to buy a house. They will not get married until they can afford a house, which will lead to a decline in the fertility rate. It will be important for government to propose policies which can reduce housing burdens, thereby improving the problem of low fertility rate. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的 9第三節 研究方法與限制 10第四節 研究架構與流程 10第二章 文獻回顧 11第一節 影響結婚之因素 13第二節 影響生育之因素 19第三章 研究方法 24第一節 資料說明 24第二節 樣本限制 25第三節 變數說明 30第四節 實證模型設定 35第四章 研究結果分析 38第一節 敘述統計 38第二節 迴歸結果與分析 48第五章 結論 55第一節 結論 55第二節 研究限制 57參考文獻 58 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1866892 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255013 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房屋持有 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 結婚 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) House price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Homeownership en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Marry Decisions en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fertility Decisions en_US dc.title (題名) 房價與婚育決策之關聯 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The impact of house price on marry and fertility decisions en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻(一)中文文獻林佩萱，2015，〈家戶購屋與生育行為關係：資源排擠與動機刺激〉。《住宅學報》24(1): 89-115。林佩萱、張金鶚，2016，〈沒有房子不生孩子？買了房子不敢生孩子？購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究〉。《臺灣社會學刊》59: 93-138。陳文意、周美伶、林玉惠、陳明吉，2013，〈資抑制房價以提高生育率：以台北都會區為例〉。《都市與計劃》40(2): 191-216。陳佳欣、陳彥仲，2010，〈結婚決策對首次購屋決策影響之內生性分析—台灣地區男性受訪者之實證現象探討〉。《住宅學報》19(1): 59-80。陳南光、王泓仁，2011，〈資產價格變動對民間消費支出影響效果之研究〉。《中央銀行季刊》33(1): 7-40。楊靜利、李大正、陳寬政，2006，〈台灣傳統婚配空間的變化與婚姻行為之變遷〉。《人口學刊》33: 1-32。駱明慶，2007，〈台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際〉。《研究臺灣》3: 37-40。 (二)英文文獻Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, 209-240. Columbia University Press.Becker, G. S. (1973). A Theory of Marriage: Part I. Journal of Political Economy, 81(4), 813-846.Becker, G. S. & H. Gregg Lewis (1973). On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), 279-288.Becker, G. S. (1981). A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Blossfeld, H.P. & Huinink, J. (1991). Human Capital Investment or Norms of Role Transition? How Women’s Schooling and Career Affect the Process of Family Formation. American Journal of Sociology, 97(1), 143-168Bowmakera, S.W. & Emerson, P.M. (2015). Bricks, Mortar, and Wedding Bells: Does the Cost of Housing Affect the Marriage Rate in the US? Eastern Economic Journal, 41, 411-429Campbell, J. & Cocco, J. (2007). How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data. Journal of Monetary Economics,(54), 591–621.Cho, S.W. (2010). Household wealth accumulation and portfolio choices in Korea. Journal of Housing Economics,19(1), 13–25.Dettling, L. J. & Kearney, M. S. (2014). House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby. Journal of Public Economics, 110, 82–100.Farnham, M., Schmidt, L. & Sevak, P. (2011). House Prices and Marital Stability. American Economic Review, 101, 615–19.Gholipour H.F. & Farzanegan M.R. (2015). Marriage crisis and housing costs: Empirical evidence from provinces of Iran. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, 107-123Gyourko J., Mayer C. & Sinai T. (2015). Superstar Cities. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, 5(4), 167-199Haurin, D.R., Hendershott, P.H. & Kim, D. (1993). The Impact of Real Rents and Wages on Household Formation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 75(2), 284-293Holland J.A. (2012). Home and Where the Heart Is: Marriage Timing and Joint Home Purchase. European Journal of Population, 28(1), 65-89Hughes, M.E. (2003). Home Economics: Metropolitan Labor and Housing Markets and Domestic Arrangements in Young Adulthood. Social Forces, 81(4), 1399-1429Ineichen, B. (1980). Housing Factors in the Timing of Weddings and First Pregnancies. The Sociological Review, 28(1), 127-140Jones, G.W. (2007). Delayed Marriage and Very Low Fertility in Pacific Asia. Population and Development Review, 33(3), 453-478Jones, G.W. & Gubhaju, B. (2009). Emerging trends in marriage in the low fertility countries of East and Southeast Asia. Asian Population Studies, 5(3), 237-265Jones, G.W. (2012). Late marriage and low fertility in Singapore: the limits of policy. The Japanese Journal of Population, 10(1), 89-101Jones, G.W. & Yeung, W.J. (2014). Marriage in Asia. Journal of Family Issues, 1-17Kye, B. (2008). Delay in First Marriage and First Childbearing in Korea-Trends in Educational Differentials. California Center for Population Research On-Line Working Paper SeriesLee, K.O. & Painter, G (2014). What Happens to Household Formation in a Recession? Journal of Urban Economics, 76 , 93-109Lin, P.S., Chang, C.O. & Sing, T. F. (2015). Do housing options affect child birth decisions? Evidence from Taiwan. Urban Studies, 53(16), 3527-3546Lo, K.T. (2012). The Crowding-out Effect of Homeownership on Fertility. European Journal of family and economic issues, 33 (1), 108-117Lovenheim, M. F. & Mumford K. J. (2013). Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95, 464–475.Mizutani, N. (2015). The Effects of Housing Wealth on Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Japan. Economics Bulletin, 35(4)Moffitt, R.A. (2000). Female wages, male wages, and the economic model of marriage: The basic evidence. The Ties That Bind: Perspectives on Marriage and Cohabitation, 302-319Mulder, C.H. & Billari, F.C. (2010). Homeownership Regimes and Low Fertility. Housing Studies,, 25 (4), 527-541Murphy, M.J. & Sullivan, O. (1985). Housing tenure and family formation in contemporary Britain. European Sociological Review, 1 (3), 230-243Oppenheimer, V.K. (1988). A Theory of Marriage Timing. American Journal of Sociology. 94. 563-591.Oppenheimer, V.K. (2003). Cohabiting and Marriage during Young Men’s Career-Development Process. Demography, 40(1), 127-149Ortalo-Magne, F. & Rady, S. (2006). Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraint. Review of Economic Studies, 73 (2), 459-485.Raymo, J.M. (1998). Later Marriages or Fewer? Changes in the Marital Behavior of Japanese Women. Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(4), 1023-1034Raymo, J.M. (2003). Educational attainment and the transition to first marriage among Japanese women. Demography, 40(1), 83-103Retherford, R.D., Ogawa, N. & Matsukura, R. (2001). Late Marriage and Less Marriage in Japan. Population and Development Revie, 27(1), 65-102Sassler, S. & Schoen, R. (1999). The Effect of Attitudes and Economic Activity on Marriage. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 147-159Sweeney, V.K. (2002). Two Decades of Family Change: The Shifting Economic Foundations of Marriage. American Sociological Review, 67(1), 132-147Wrenn ,II, D. H & Yi, J. & Zhang, B. (2019). House prices and marriage entry in China. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 74, 118–130.Yi, J. & Zhang, J. (2010). The effect of house price on fertility: Evidence from Hong Kong. Economic Inquiry, 48(3):635-650. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU201901180 en_US
