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題名 俄羅斯飛航安全之研究
A study on Russia’s aviation safety作者 王國仲
Wang, Kuo-Chung貢獻者 林永芳
Lin, Yung-Fang
王國仲
Wang, Kuo-Chung關鍵詞 俄羅斯航空業
飛航安全
民航安全
5M 模型
Russian aviation industry
Flight safety
Civil aviation safety
Aeroflot
5M Model日期 2020 上傳時間 5-Feb-2020 18:18:13 (UTC+8) 摘要 飛航安全，理應是航空領域的重中之重。不過，儘管身為世界軍事科技強權、具備自行研製民航機的能力，俄羅斯的民航安全卻普遍不受國際信賴，甚至被視為危險的代名詞。本文首先了解俄國民航領域發展歷程，接著按時間順序劃分蘇聯、葉爾欽與普欽主政三個時期，運用相關數據與模型，探討各時期俄國飛航安全情況、分類事故原因。研究結果發現蘇聯時期飛安表現呈進步趨勢；葉爾欽時期碰上蘇聯解體的混亂，民航安全大幅衰退；普欽時期則逐漸好轉，但仍有進步、改善空間。再者，以近年兩起代表性空難進行個案研究，持續追蹤俄國民航部門、各航空業者是否依照空難調查報告書建議著手強化飛航安全。政府部門方面仍有許多基本法令、規範未能跟上世界腳步；航空公司部分，以Aeroflot為首的大型航空業者在經營與飛航安全上則有長足進步。和往日相比，俄國飛安已有相當程度改善，但距離擺脫負面名聲、建立廣受旅客信賴的聲譽，還有一段不短的路要走。
Flight safety should be the top priority in aviation. However, despite being a world military scientific and technological power and capable of developing its own civil aircraft, Russia’s aviation safety is generally not trusted internationally and is even regarded as synonymous with danger.The thesis starts with the history of Russian civil aviation, divide it into three different periods in chronological order (Soviet Union, Yeltsin and Putin), uses relevant data and models to explore civil aviation safety of Russia and classify the causes of accidents in each period.Two plane crash case studies were conducted in this thesis to track whether Russian civil aviation departments and airlines have proceeded to strengthen aviation safety in accordance with the recommendations of air crash investigation reports. On the government side, there are still many basic laws and regulations that have not kept pace with the world. As for airlines, large aviation companies such as Aeroflot have made great progress in terms of operation and flight safety.Compared to the past, aviation safety in Russia has improved considerably, but there is still a long way to go to get rid of negative reputations and regain trust from travelers.參考文獻 一、 中文部分（一）書籍陳李綢，個案研究理論與實務 （台北市，心理出版社，2005）。鈕文英，質性研究方法與論文寫作（台北市，雙葉書廊，2017）。鈕文英，教育研究方法與論文寫作（台北市，雙葉書廊，2007）。鄭世岳、蕭景祥、李金泉、魏榮男，職業安全概論（第三版）（新北市：新文京，2017）。（二）期刊李文進、游重山、Don Harries、李倫文、王宏任，「決策失誤與違反標準作業程序對飛安事件結果之影響」，危機管理學刊，第五卷第一期（2008），頁71-78。官文林，「飛航安全」，科學發展，第495期（2014），頁4-5。張玉君、顏進儒、許家瑞、蔡昆哲，「各國飛航安全研究項目與能量分析」，危機管理學刊，第四卷第二期（2007），頁21-32。Nicholay Ku，「從俄國航空產業危機看我國潛在商機」，台俄經貿，第20期（2016），頁30-37。（三）學位論文蔡佩芳，「人為因素對飛航安全影響之研究」，成功大學航空太空工程研究所碩士在職專班論文（2010）。（四）網路資料飛航自願報告系統，「TACARE是什麼」，飛航自願報告系統TACARE，https://is.gd/YOuZNE（2019/5/22）。飛航自願報告系統，「為什麼需要 TACARE」，飛航自願報告系統TACARE，https://pse.is/EDTR7 （2019/5/22）。二、英文部分（一）書籍Allaz, Camille, History of Air Cargo and Airmail from the 18th Century (UK, Gardners Books, 2005).Federal Aviation Administration, Pilot’s handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge (Oklahoma City: Federal Aviation Administration, 2016).Federal Aviation Administration, The Operator’s Manual for Human Factors in Maintenance and Ground Operations (Washington, D.C.: Federal Aviation Administration, 2014).International Air Transport Association, Annual Report 2019 (Seoul, International Air Transport Association, 2019).International Civil Aviation Organization, MANUAL ON THE REGULATION OF INTERNATIONAL AIR TRANSPORT (Doc 9626) (Third Addition 2016) (Montreal, International Civil Aviation Organization, 2016).Interstate Aviation Committee, Air Accident Investigation Commission Final Report B 737-505 VP-BKO (Moscow, Interstate Aviation Committee, 2009).Interstate Aviation Committee, Air Accident Investigation Commission Final Report An-148-100V RA-61704(Moscow, Interstate Aviation Committee, 2019).Jones, Mark, The Aeroflot Story: From Russia With Luck (US, Independently Published, 2018).PJSC Aeroflot, At the Height of Opportunities: Annual Report 2018 (Moscow, PJSC Aeroflot, 2019).（二）期刊Aviation Week, “Tupolev 104: Harsh Proof Of Rapid Soviet Progress”, Aviation Week, April 1956, pp.28-29.Guttman, Robert, “Aeroflot’s Intercontinental Giant”, Aviation History, September 2019, pp.16-17.Heymann, Hans Jr., “The Soviet Role in International Civil Aviation”, Journal of Air Law and Commerce, Vol 25, Issue3 (1958), PP.265-280.Howie, Clinton D., “(Re)learning to Fly: Russian Aviation in the PostSoviet Era”, Journal of Air Law and Commerce, Vol 61, Issue2 (1995), pp.467-503.Manuele, Fred A., “Reviewing Heinrich Dislodging Two Myths From the Practice of Safety”, Professional Safety, October 2011, pp. 52-61.Palmer, Scott W., “Dictatorship of the Air: Aviation Culture and the Fate of Modern Russia”, The Russian Review, Vol.67, Issue1 (2008), pp.146-147.Recknagel, Charles, “Airline Went from Being the World`s Biggest to One of 320; Russian Airline Aeroflot”, TRAVEL WEEKLY, July 1994, p.12.Rizika, J. Wilford, “Commercial Air Transportation in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics”, Journal of Air Law and Commerce, Vol 20, Issue2 (1953), pp.127-139.（三）網路資料Aeroflot, “Aeroflot Nord strategy unveiled”, Aeroflot, https://reurl.cc/Ylbjmx, (15/12/2019).Aviation Knowledge, “5-M Model Approach To Accident Investigation”, Aviation Knowledge, https://ppt.cc/fS90Jx, (26/5/2019).Aviation Safety Network, “Russia air safety profile”, Aviation Safety Network, https://ppt.cc/ftlN6x, (16/8/2019).Bailey, Joanna, “What Caused The Aeroflot SuperJet Crash?”, Simple Flying, https://is.gd/5XeciR, (28/5/2019).Barents Observer, “Aeroflot-Nord in trouble”, Barents Observer.com, https://reurl.cc/24eoya, (15/12/2019).Bewicke, Henry, “Angara Airlines Antonov An-148 Overruns Runway In Russia”, Simple Flying, https://reurl.cc/1QElqY, (16/12/2019).Borisov, Fyodor, “INSIGHT: Facing up to the challenges of Russia’s changing civil aviation regulations”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://reurl.cc/72NxbQ, (17/12/2019).Century of Flight, “early Soviet civil aviation”, Century of Flight, https://ppt.cc/flSZRx, (9/8/2019).Chuprikov, Yuri, “10 best Soviet and Russian civil aircraft”, Russia Beyond, https://ppt.cc/fvnmxx, (13/8/2019).Epic Flight Academic, “Hiring Requirements for Singapore Airlines”, https://reurl.cc/4gnkkK, (14/12/2019).Epic Flight Academic, “Hiring Requirements for Aeroflot Russian Airlines”, https://reurl.cc/alg004, (14/12/2019).European Aviation Safety Agency, “Working Arrangement on Airworthiness between EASA and FATA”, European Aviation Safety Agency, https://reurl.cc/RdmpYZ, (13/12/2019).European Regions Airlines Association, “SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF FOREIGN AIRCRAFT (SAFA)”, European Regions Airlines Association, https://reurl.cc/W4gXRD, (15/12/2019).Flight Safety Foundation, “Russia air safety profile”, Aviation Safety Network, https://pse.is/JHF86, (9/7/2019).Flight Safety Foundation, “United States of America air safety profile”, Aviation Safety Network, https://pse.is/JFZMZ, (9/7/2019).Flottau, Jens, Buyck, Cathy, “Can Aeroflot Make The Top 20 Of Airlines?”, Aviation Week, https://is.gd/PcVLur, (21/5/2019).Gelles, David, Wichter, Zach, “What You Need to Know About the Deadly Boeing 737 Max Crashes”, The New York Times, https://pse.is/JGJX3, (15/7/2019).ICAO, “Safety”, ICAO, https://is.gd/nZGjpw, (2/7/2019).Interfax, “Red Wings, Nordavia shareholders decide not to combine companies into holding”, Interfax, https://reurl.cc/b6gnpv, (15/12/2019).Interstate Aviation Committee, “About IAC”, Interstate Aviation Committee, https://ppt.cc/fPe89x, (11/10/2019).Interstate Aviation Committee, “About the quality of pilot training”, Interstate Aviation Committee, https://reurl.cc/9z9ZdY, (18/12/2019).JACDEC, ”The JACDEC Safety Index”, JACDEC, https://goo.gl/FaMtaU, (17/1/2019).JACDEC, “Elucidations and Explanations about the New Safety-Risk-Index” , JACDEC, https://reurl.cc/vn2qEa, (15/12/2019).Kaminski-Morrow, David, “Saratov Airlines suspends operations as certificate expires”, Flight Global, https://ppt.cc/fniPpx, (7/11/2019).Kelly, Lidia, Anishchuk, Alexei, “Finger-pointing fails to improve Russia`s dreadful air safety record”, Reuters, https://goo.gl/ni2iit, (10/1/2019).Luhn, Alec, “Russia`s Air Industry Is a Victim of Its Own Success”, The Atlantic, https://pse.is/HWXNB, (9/7/2019).Morris, Hugh, “Do Russian airlines still have a safety problem?”, The Telegraph, https://is.gd/PrJMXa, (2/7/2019).PJSC Aeroflot, “Russian Airlines is recruiting pilots from all over the world to operate our new generation fleet B737, A320”, https://reurl.cc/0zGggl, (14/12/2019).Plane crash info, “Accident Statistics”, Planecrashinfo, https://pse.is/JPK34, (17/7/2019).Polyakov, Maxim, “The Aviation Code of the Russian Federation”, https://ppt.cc/fwDiVx, (12/10/2019).Pulkovo Airport Press Center, “Smartavia expands its presence at Pulkovo St. Petersburg Airport”, Pulkovo Airport , https://is.gd/py58sn, (22/12/2019).RIA Novosti, “Russia`s Aeroflot airline sells Nordavia for $7 mln - paper”, Sputnik, https://reurl.cc/jd2gZ1, (15/12/2019).Russian Aviation, “Aeroflot wins several Annual Report nominations at the XXII Annual Report Competition, receives top ranking in Extel Survey”, https://is.gd/64dCnI, (18/12/2019).Russian Aviation Insider, “INSIGHT: Introducing Russia’s Smartavia, your more friendly airline”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://reurl.cc/8lRa5d, (17/12/2019).Russian Aviation Insider, “INSIGHT: Russian air transport industry – integration and differentiation”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://reurl.cc/YlbamD, (17/12/2019).Russian Aviation Insider, “Russia to shift certification functions from IAC to national authorities”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://reurl.cc/zykg1Q, (18/12/2019).Russian Aviation Insider, “Russian authorities ground Antonov An-148 passenger airliners”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://reurl.cc/Vag26Y, (16/12/2019).Russian Aviation Insider, “Russian MRO industry gains momentum”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://ppt.cc/fRg8lx , (16/8/2019).Russian Aviation Insider, “Russia’s Saratov Airlines is shut down for ‘non-compliance’”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://reurl.cc/k52pqn, (16/12/2019).Russian Aviation Insider, “Russia’s Saratov Airlines abandons all plans for a re-launch’”, Russian Aviation Insider, https://reurl.cc/pD2pa4, (16/12/2019).Russia Beyond, “‘Fly Aeroflot!’ How the Soviet airline became the largest in the world” Russia Beyond, https://ppt.cc/fvWqzx, (13/8/2019).Show Observer, “Обозрение Выставки MRO Russia & CIS 2018”, Show Observer, https://ppt.cc/f0AA1x, (16/8/2019).Shukla, Sebastian, Eshchenko, Alla and Yan, Holly, ” Russian plane crash kills all 71 people on board”, CNN, https://ppt.cc/fcvySx, (6/11/2019).Skytrax, “Airline safety ratings”, Skytrax, https://goo.gl/dr8gxA, (17/1/2019).Steinberg, Ethan, “Which Airlines Have the Oldest Fleets?”, The Points Guy, https://reurl.cc/5gQge6, (14/12/2019).The World Bank, “Data Bank” , https://ppt.cc/fQQrYx, (8/10/2019).Volkov, Oleg, “Russia to increase foreign aircraft import duties”, AEROTIME HUB, https://ppt.cc/fOtvix, (17/12/2019).三、俄文部分Калабеков, И.Г., СССР и страны мира в цифрах (Москва, 2019).四、德文部分Eyermann, Karl-Heinz Wolfgang Sellenthin, Der Luftverkehr der UdSSR,Höher-Weiter-Schneller Teil 1 (Berlin: Eigenverlag, 1967). 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
106263003資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106263003 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林永芳 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Yung-Fang en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 王國仲 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wang, Kuo-Chung en_US dc.creator (作者) 王國仲 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wang, Kuo-Chung en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Feb-2020 18:18:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Feb-2020 18:18:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Feb-2020 18:18:13 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106263003 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/128636 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 俄羅斯研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106263003 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 飛航安全，理應是航空領域的重中之重。不過，儘管身為世界軍事科技強權、具備自行研製民航機的能力，俄羅斯的民航安全卻普遍不受國際信賴，甚至被視為危險的代名詞。本文首先了解俄國民航領域發展歷程，接著按時間順序劃分蘇聯、葉爾欽與普欽主政三個時期，運用相關數據與模型，探討各時期俄國飛航安全情況、分類事故原因。研究結果發現蘇聯時期飛安表現呈進步趨勢；葉爾欽時期碰上蘇聯解體的混亂，民航安全大幅衰退；普欽時期則逐漸好轉，但仍有進步、改善空間。再者，以近年兩起代表性空難進行個案研究，持續追蹤俄國民航部門、各航空業者是否依照空難調查報告書建議著手強化飛航安全。政府部門方面仍有許多基本法令、規範未能跟上世界腳步；航空公司部分，以Aeroflot為首的大型航空業者在經營與飛航安全上則有長足進步。和往日相比，俄國飛安已有相當程度改善，但距離擺脫負面名聲、建立廣受旅客信賴的聲譽，還有一段不短的路要走。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Flight safety should be the top priority in aviation. However, despite being a world military scientific and technological power and capable of developing its own civil aircraft, Russia’s aviation safety is generally not trusted internationally and is even regarded as synonymous with danger.The thesis starts with the history of Russian civil aviation, divide it into three different periods in chronological order (Soviet Union, Yeltsin and Putin), uses relevant data and models to explore civil aviation safety of Russia and classify the causes of accidents in each period.Two plane crash case studies were conducted in this thesis to track whether Russian civil aviation departments and airlines have proceeded to strengthen aviation safety in accordance with the recommendations of air crash investigation reports. On the government side, there are still many basic laws and regulations that have not kept pace with the world. As for airlines, large aviation companies such as Aeroflot have made great progress in terms of operation and flight safety.Compared to the past, aviation safety in Russia has improved considerably, but there is still a long way to go to get rid of negative reputations and regain trust from travelers. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 文獻回顧 4第三節 研究途徑與方法 11第四節 研究範圍與限制 19第五節 章節安排 20第二章 俄國民航安全發展歷程 23第一節 俄國民航產業發展簡史 23第二節 蘇聯時期俄國民航安全 32第三節 葉爾欽時期俄國民航安全 36第四節 普欽時期俄國民航安全 42第五節 小結 46第三章 個案研究—重大空難檢視 49第一節 個案選擇—北俄羅斯航空821號班機與薩拉托夫航空703號班機 49第二節 兩起空難發生背景與過程 52第三節 兩起空難發生原因與調查結果 59第四節 後續飛安建議 68第五節 小結 77第四章 飛安建議之執行情況探討 79第一節 兩起個案中後續飛安建議之分析與比較 79第二節 民航部門後續執行與發展狀況 82第三節 航空公司後續執行與發展狀況 89第四節 小結 99第五章 結論 101參考資料 106 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2334757 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106263003 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄羅斯航空業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 飛航安全 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民航安全 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 5M 模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russian aviation industry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Flight safety en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Civil aviation safety en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Aeroflot en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 5M Model en_US dc.title (題名) 俄羅斯飛航安全之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A study on Russia’s aviation safety en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文部分（一）書籍陳李綢，個案研究理論與實務 （台北市，心理出版社，2005）。鈕文英，質性研究方法與論文寫作（台北市，雙葉書廊，2017）。鈕文英，教育研究方法與論文寫作（台北市，雙葉書廊，2007）。鄭世岳、蕭景祥、李金泉、魏榮男，職業安全概論（第三版）（新北市：新文京，2017）。（二）期刊李文進、游重山、Don Harries、李倫文、王宏任，「決策失誤與違反標準作業程序對飛安事件結果之影響」，危機管理學刊，第五卷第一期（2008），頁71-78。官文林，「飛航安全」，科學發展，第495期（2014），頁4-5。張玉君、顏進儒、許家瑞、蔡昆哲，「各國飛航安全研究項目與能量分析」，危機管理學刊，第四卷第二期（2007），頁21-32。Nicholay Ku，「從俄國航空產業危機看我國潛在商機」，台俄經貿，第20期（2016），頁30-37。（三）學位論文蔡佩芳，「人為因素對飛航安全影響之研究」，成功大學航空太空工程研究所碩士在職專班論文（2010）。（四）網路資料飛航自願報告系統，「TACARE是什麼」，飛航自願報告系統TACARE，https://is.gd/YOuZNE（2019/5/22）。飛航自願報告系統，「為什麼需要 TACARE」，飛航自願報告系統TACARE，https://pse.is/EDTR7 （2019/5/22）。二、英文部分（一）書籍Allaz, Camille, History of Air Cargo and Airmail from the 18th Century (UK, Gardners Books, 2005).Federal Aviation Administration, Pilot’s handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge (Oklahoma City: Federal Aviation Administration, 2016).Federal Aviation Administration, The Operator’s Manual for Human Factors in Maintenance and Ground Operations (Washington, D.C.: Federal Aviation Administration, 2014).International Air Transport Association, Annual Report 2019 (Seoul, International Air Transport Association, 2019).International Civil Aviation Organization, MANUAL ON THE REGULATION OF INTERNATIONAL AIR TRANSPORT (Doc 9626) (Third Addition 2016) (Montreal, International Civil Aviation Organization, 2016).Interstate Aviation Committee, Air Accident Investigation Commission Final Report B 737-505 VP-BKO (Moscow, Interstate Aviation Committee, 2009).Interstate Aviation Committee, Air Accident Investigation Commission Final Report An-148-100V RA-61704(Moscow, Interstate Aviation Committee, 2019).Jones, Mark, The Aeroflot Story: From Russia With Luck (US, Independently Published, 2018).PJSC Aeroflot, At the Height of Opportunities: Annual Report 2018 (Moscow, PJSC Aeroflot, 2019).（二）期刊Aviation Week, “Tupolev 104: Harsh Proof Of Rapid Soviet Progress”, Aviation Week, April 1956, pp.28-29.Guttman, Robert, “Aeroflot’s Intercontinental Giant”, Aviation History, September 2019, pp.16-17.Heymann, Hans Jr., “The Soviet Role in International Civil Aviation”, Journal of Air Law and Commerce, Vol 25, Issue3 (1958), PP.265-280.Howie, Clinton D., “(Re)learning to Fly: Russian Aviation in the PostSoviet Era”, Journal of Air Law and Commerce, Vol 61, Issue2 (1995), pp.467-503.Manuele, Fred A., “Reviewing Heinrich Dislodging Two Myths From the Practice of Safety”, Professional Safety, October 2011, pp. 52-61.Palmer, Scott W., “Dictatorship of the Air: Aviation Culture and the Fate of Modern Russia”, The Russian Review, Vol.67, Issue1 (2008), pp.146-147.Recknagel, Charles, “Airline Went from Being the World`s Biggest to One of 320; Russian Airline Aeroflot”, TRAVEL WEEKLY, July 1994, p.12.Rizika, J. 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