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題名 政黨衝突對經濟發展的影響
The influence of political conflict on economic development
作者 廖健豪
Liao, Chien-Hao
貢獻者 楊子霆<br>黃柏鈞
Yang, Tzu-Ting<br>Huang, Po-Chun
廖健豪
Liao, Chien-Hao
關鍵詞 政黨衝突
經濟發展
政策不確定性
政黨衝突指數
Political conflict
Economic development
Policy uncertainty
Political conflict index
日期 2020
上傳時間 2-Mar-2020 11:26:23 (UTC+8)
摘要 政黨衝突是否影響台灣經濟成長的影響一直是學界和產業界關心的議題,本研究參考Azzimonti(2018)嘗試利用1990年至2018年的台灣新聞資料,來建構政黨衝突指數(Political Conflict Index,以下簡稱PCI指數),並以計量模型探討政黨衝突對於總體經濟和企業投資的影響。研究結果顯示,PCI指數在重大衝突的重大事件(國民大會、政治遊行和政策改革)有明顯的上升趨勢,並且政府是否為分立政府顯著影響PCI指數的變化。而計量結果顯示,PCI指數的上升將會顯著造成FDI 的下降,而當PCI上升1倍時,企業的資本支出率將下降0.05個標準差。
Whether or not political conflicts affect Taiwan’s economic development has been a topic of concern to academics and industry. This study refers to Azzimonti (2018) `s attempt to use Taiwanese news from 1990 to 2018 to construct the Political Conflict Index, and use econometric models to explore the impact of political conflicts on the overall economy and corporate investment. The research results show that the PCI index has a clear upward trend in major events of political conflicts (National Congress, political marches and policy reforms), and whether the government is a divided government has significantly affected PCI index. The measurement results show that the rise of the PCI index will cause a significant decline in FDI, and when the PCI doubles, the company`s capital expenditure rate will fall by 0.05 standard deviation.
參考文獻 Azzimonti, M. (2018). Partisan conflict and private investment. Journal of Monetary Economics.

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The quarterly journal of economics.

Benoit, K., Laver, M., Lowe, W., & Mikhaylov, S. (2012). How to scale coded text units without bias: A response to Gemenis. Electoral Studies.

Boudoukh, J., Feldman, R., Kogan, S., & Richardson, M. (2013). Which news moves stock prices? a textual analysis (No. w18725). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Canes-Wrone, B., Clark, T. S., & Park, J. K. (2010). Judicial independence and retention elections. The Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization.

Feng, Y. (2001). Political freedom, political instability, and policy uncertainty: A study of political institutions and private investment in developing countries. International Studies Quarterly.

Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2015). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies.

Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The Journal of Finance.

Segal, G., Shaliastovich, I., & Yaron, A. (2015). Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications. Journal of Financial Economics.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
106258026
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106258026
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 楊子霆<br>黃柏鈞zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yang, Tzu-Ting<br>Huang, Po-Chunen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 廖健豪zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Liao, Chien-Haoen_US
dc.creator (作者) 廖健豪zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Liao, Chien-Haoen_US
dc.date (日期) 2020en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Mar-2020 11:26:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Mar-2020 11:26:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Mar-2020 11:26:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106258026en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/128927-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 106258026zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 政黨衝突是否影響台灣經濟成長的影響一直是學界和產業界關心的議題,本研究參考Azzimonti(2018)嘗試利用1990年至2018年的台灣新聞資料,來建構政黨衝突指數(Political Conflict Index,以下簡稱PCI指數),並以計量模型探討政黨衝突對於總體經濟和企業投資的影響。研究結果顯示,PCI指數在重大衝突的重大事件(國民大會、政治遊行和政策改革)有明顯的上升趨勢,並且政府是否為分立政府顯著影響PCI指數的變化。而計量結果顯示,PCI指數的上升將會顯著造成FDI 的下降,而當PCI上升1倍時,企業的資本支出率將下降0.05個標準差。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Whether or not political conflicts affect Taiwan’s economic development has been a topic of concern to academics and industry. This study refers to Azzimonti (2018) `s attempt to use Taiwanese news from 1990 to 2018 to construct the Political Conflict Index, and use econometric models to explore the impact of political conflicts on the overall economy and corporate investment. The research results show that the PCI index has a clear upward trend in major events of political conflicts (National Congress, political marches and policy reforms), and whether the government is a divided government has significantly affected PCI index. The measurement results show that the rise of the PCI index will cause a significant decline in FDI, and when the PCI doubles, the company`s capital expenditure rate will fall by 0.05 standard deviation.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 目 次
第一章 緒論 7
第二章 文獻回顧 8
第一節 政黨衝突的量化 8
第二節 政黨衝突與企業投資的理論模型 9
第三節 政黨衝突與企業投資的實證研究 9
第三章 研究方法 10
第一節 PCI 指數建構方法 10
第二節 PCI 指數建構結果 12
第三節 向量自我回歸模型結果 17
第四節 計量分析結果 20
第四章 結論 23
參考文獻 24
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1081965 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106258026en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政黨衝突zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟發展zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政策不確定性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政黨衝突指數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Political conflicten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic developmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Policy uncertaintyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Political conflict indexen_US
dc.title (題名) 政黨衝突對經濟發展的影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The influence of political conflict on economic developmenten_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Azzimonti, M. (2018). Partisan conflict and private investment. Journal of Monetary Economics.

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The quarterly journal of economics.

Benoit, K., Laver, M., Lowe, W., & Mikhaylov, S. (2012). How to scale coded text units without bias: A response to Gemenis. Electoral Studies.

Boudoukh, J., Feldman, R., Kogan, S., & Richardson, M. (2013). Which news moves stock prices? a textual analysis (No. w18725). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Canes-Wrone, B., Clark, T. S., & Park, J. K. (2010). Judicial independence and retention elections. The Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization.

Feng, Y. (2001). Political freedom, political instability, and policy uncertainty: A study of political institutions and private investment in developing countries. International Studies Quarterly.

Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2015). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies.

Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The Journal of Finance.

Segal, G., Shaliastovich, I., & Yaron, A. (2015). Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications. Journal of Financial Economics.
zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000193en_US