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題名 管理當局預測修正對於供應鏈成員資本支出的影響
The Effect of Forecast Revision on Capital Investment along the Supply Chain
作者 游柏祥
Yu, Po-Hsiang
貢獻者 金成隆
Chin, Chen-Lung
游柏祥
Yu, Po-Hsiang
關鍵詞 供應鏈
資本支出
長鞭效應
預測修正
supply chain
capital investment
bullwhip effect
forecast revision
日期 2019
上傳時間 6-Apr-2020 14:43:14 (UTC+8)
摘要 Using a 3-tier supply chain structure (i.e., upstream, midstream and downstream firms), this paper investigates the effect of management earnings forecast revision on capital investment decisions along the supply chain. The bullwhip effect indicates that when demand information passes up through each site along the supply chain, it leads to a greater variance in demand for supply chain members further away from the downstream firm. By using upward forecast revision at the downstream site as a positive signal in the product demand, I predict and document a positive association between the downstream firm’s upward management earnings forecast revision and the capital investment at the upstream firm and that the extent to which the upstream invests in the capital investment outlays surpasses that made by the midstream firm. Further analyses demonstrate the positive effect of the downstream firm’s management earnings forecast revision on the capital investment at the upstream firm and that greater capital expenditure at the upstream firm relative to the midstream firm prevails under higher economic policy uncertainty, both during expansion (rather than contraction) periods and for supply chain members with lower bargaining power, more volatile demand uncertainty and order backlog. Overall, these results seem to suggest an uptick in forecast revision at the downstream site, leading to a swing in capital investment at the upstream site.
參考文獻 Aeppel, T. 2010. `Bullwhip` Hits Firms as Growth Snaps Back. Wall Street Journal, 29-31.
Agrawal, D., S. T. Bharath, and S. Viswanathan. 2004. Technological change and stock return volatility: Evidence from eCommerce adoptions. Available at SSRN 387543.
Ajinkya, B., S. Bhojraj, and P. Sengupta. 2005. The Association between Outside Directors, Institutional Investors and the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (3):343-376.
Ajinkya, B. B., and M. J. Gift. 1984. Corporate managers` earnings forecasts and symmetrical adjustments of market expectations. Journal of Accounting Research:425-444.
Anderson, M. C., R. D. Banker, and S. N. Janakiraman. 2003. Are Selling, General, and Administrative Costs "Sticky"? Journal of Accounting Research 41 (1):47-63.
Anilowski, C., M. Feng, and D. J. Skinner. 2007. Does earnings guidance affect market returns? The nature and information content of aggregate earnings guidance. Journal of accounting and economics 44 (1):36-63.
Bailey, W., H. Li, C. X. Mao, and R. Zhong. 2003. Regulation fair disclosure and earnings information: Market, analyst, and corporate responses. The Journal of Finance 58 (6):2487-2514.
Baiman, S., P. E. Fischer, and M. V. Rajan. 2001. Performance measurement and design in supply chains. Management Science 47 (1):173-188.
Baiman, S., and M. V. Rajan. 2002. The Role of Information and Opportunism in the Choice of Buyer-Supplier Relationships. Journal of Accounting Research 40 (2):247-278.
Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis. 2016. Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4):1593-1636.
Bamber, L. S., and Y. S. Cheon. 1998. Discretionary Management Earnings Forecast Disclosures: Antecedents and Outcomes Associated with Forecast Venue and Forecast Specificity Choices. Journal of Accounting Research 36 (2):167-190.
Banker, R. D., S. Basu, D. Byzalov, and J. Y. S. Chen. 2016. The confounding effect of cost stickiness on conservatism estimates. Journal of accounting and economics 61 (1):203-220.
Bernanke, B. S. 1983. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1):85-106.
Beyer, A., D. A. Cohen, T. Z. Lys, and B. R. Walther. 2010. The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature. Journal of accounting and economics 50 (2–3):296-343.
Biddle, G. C., G. Hilary, and R. S. Verdi. 2009. How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency? Journal of accounting and economics 48 (2–3):112-131.
Bloom, N., S. Bond, and J. Van Reenen. 2007. Uncertainty and investment dynamics. The Review of Economic Studies 74 (2):391-415.
Bonaime, A., H. Gulen, and M. Ion. 2018. Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions? Journal of Financial Economics 129 (3):531-558.
Bray, R. L., and H. Mendelson. 2012. Information transmission and the bullwhip effect: An empirical investigation. Management Science 58 (5):860-875.
Cachon, G. P., T. Randall, and G. M. Schmidt. 2007. In search of the bullwhip effect. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9 (4):457-479.
Cen, L., E. L. Maydew, L. Zhang, and L. Zuo. 2017. Customer–supplier relationships and corporate tax avoidance. Journal of Financial Economics 123 (2):377-394.
Cen, L., E. L. Maydew, L. Zhang, and L. Zuo. 2018. Tax Planning Diffusion, Real Effects, and Sharing of Benefits.
Chang, H., J. Chen, S. W. Hsu, and R. Mashruwala. 2018. The Impact of the Bullwhip Effect on Sales and Earnings Prediction Using Order Backlog. Contemporary Accounting Research 35 (2):1140-1165.
Chatfield, D. C., J. G. Kim, T. P. Harrison, and J. C. Hayya. 2004. The Bullwhip Effect—Impact of Stochastic Lead Time, Information Quality, and Information Sharing: A Simulation Study. Production and Operations Management 13 (4):340-353.
Chen, C., J. B. Kim, M. Wei, and H. Zhang. 2018. Linguistic Information Quality in Customers` Forward‐Looking Disclosures and Suppliers` Investment Decisions. Contemporary Accounting Research.
Chen, F., Z. Drezner, J. K. Ryan, and D. Simchi-Levi. 2000. Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: The impact of forecasting, lead times, and information. Management Science 46 (3):436-443.
Chin, C. L., and K. T. Nien. 2015. The Association between Analysts’ Forecast Revision and Management Earnings Forecast from Firms in the Supply Chain. In Annual Meeting of the American Accounting Association. Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Chiu, T. T., J. B. Kim, and Z. Wang. 2018. Customers’ risk factor disclosures and suppliers’ investment efficiency. Contemporary Accounting Research.
Chu, Y., X. Tian, and W. Wang. 2018. Corporate innovation along the supply chain. Management Science, Forthcoming.
Coller, M., and T. L. Yohn. 1997. Management forecasts and information asymmetry: An examination of bid-ask spreads. Journal of Accounting Research 35 (2):181-191.
Correia, S. 2015. Singletons, cluster-robust standard errors and fixed effects: A bad mix. Technical Note, Duke University.
Dai, R., H. Liang, and L. K. Ng. 2019. Socially Responsible Corporate Customers. Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming.
Dangl, T., and Y. Wu. 2015. Corporate investment over the business cycle. Review of Finance 20 (1):337-371.
Diamond, D. W., and R. E. Verrecchia. 1991. Disclosure, liquidity, and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 46 (4):1325-1359.
Dixit, A. K., and R. S. Pindyck. 1994. Investment under uncertainty: Princeton university press.
Forrester, J. W. 1958. INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS:a major breakthrough for decision makers. Harvard business review 36 (4):37-66.
Fuller, K., J. Netter, and M. Stegemoller. 2002. What do returns to acquiring firms tell us? Evidence from firms that make many acquisitions. The Journal of Finance 57 (4):1763-1793.
Goodman, T. H., M. Neamtiu, N. Shroff, and H. D. White. 2014. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions. The Accounting Review 89 (1):331-365.
Graham, J. R., C. R. Harvey, and S. Rajgopal. 2005. The economic implications of corporate financial reporting. Journal of accounting and economics 40 (1–3):3-73.
Grossman, S. J., and O. D. Hart. 1986. The costs and benefits of ownership: A theory of vertical and lateral integration. Journal of Political Economy 94 (4):691-719.
Gulen, H., and M. Ion. 2016. Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies 29 (3):523-564.
Hart, O., and J. Moore. 1988. Incomplete contracts and renegotiation. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society:755-785.
———. 1990. Property Rights and the Nature of the Firm. Journal of Political Economy 98 (6):1119-1158.
Healy, P. M., A. P. Hutton, and K. G. Palepu. 1999. Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 (3):485-520.
Heflin, F., K. Subramanyam, and Y. Zhang. 2003. Regulation FD and the financial information environment: Early evidence. The Accounting Review 78 (1):1-37.
Hertzel, M. G., Z. Li, M. S. Officer, and K. J. Rodgers. 2008. Inter-firm linkages and the wealth effects of financial distress along the supply chain. Journal of Financial Economics 87 (2):374-387.
Hilary, G., C. Hsu, and R. Wang. 2014. Management forecast consistency. Journal of Accounting Research 52 (1):163-191.
Hirshleifer, D. A., J. N. Myers, L. A. Myers, and S. H. Teoh. 2008. Do Individual Investors Cause Post-Earnings Announcement Drift? Direct Evidence from Personal Trades. The Accounting Review 83 (6):1521-1550.
Hirst, D. E., L. Koonce, and S. Venkataraman. 2008. Management Earnings Forecasts:A Review and Framework. Accounting Horizons 22 (3):315-338.
Huang, Y., R. Jennings, and Y. Yu. 2017. Product Market Competition and Managerial Disclosure of Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Import Tariff Rate Reductions. Accounting Review 19 (3):185-207.
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
會計學系
102353501
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102353501
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 金成隆zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chin, Chen-Lungen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 游柏祥zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yu, Po-Hsiangen_US
dc.creator (作者) 游柏祥zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Yu, Po-Hsiangen_US
dc.date (日期) 2019en_US
dc.date.accessioned 6-Apr-2020 14:43:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 6-Apr-2020 14:43:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 6-Apr-2020 14:43:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102353501en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/129209-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102353501zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Using a 3-tier supply chain structure (i.e., upstream, midstream and downstream firms), this paper investigates the effect of management earnings forecast revision on capital investment decisions along the supply chain. The bullwhip effect indicates that when demand information passes up through each site along the supply chain, it leads to a greater variance in demand for supply chain members further away from the downstream firm. By using upward forecast revision at the downstream site as a positive signal in the product demand, I predict and document a positive association between the downstream firm’s upward management earnings forecast revision and the capital investment at the upstream firm and that the extent to which the upstream invests in the capital investment outlays surpasses that made by the midstream firm. Further analyses demonstrate the positive effect of the downstream firm’s management earnings forecast revision on the capital investment at the upstream firm and that greater capital expenditure at the upstream firm relative to the midstream firm prevails under higher economic policy uncertainty, both during expansion (rather than contraction) periods and for supply chain members with lower bargaining power, more volatile demand uncertainty and order backlog. Overall, these results seem to suggest an uptick in forecast revision at the downstream site, leading to a swing in capital investment at the upstream site.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Abstract i
Table of Contents ii
List of Tables iv
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review 11
2.1 Bullwhip Effect 11
2.2 The Implications of Management Earnings Forecast 15
2.3 The Effect of Customers’ Behaviors and Characteristics on Suppliers 17
2.4 Investment Issues Along the Supply Chain 19
2.5 Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment 25
3. Hypothesis Development 28
3.1 H1- The Effect of Earnings Forecast Revision at the Downstream Firm on Investment Decisions of the Upstream Firm 28
3.2 H2- Moderating Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty 32
4. Research Design 35
4.1 Data 35
4.2 Research Design-H1 36
4.3 Research Design-H2 38
5. Empirical Results 40
5.1 Descriptive Statistics 40
5.2 Correlation Matrix 41
5.3 Results- H1 41
5.4 Results- H2 43
6. Further Analyses: 45
6.1 The Moderating Effect of Business Cycle 45
6.2 The Moderating Effect of Demand Predictability 46
6.3 The Moderating Effect of Order Backlog 48
6.4 R&D Investment 49
6.5 Relative Bargain Power 50
6.6 Robustness Checks 52
6.6.1 Considering Economic Uncertainty and Investment Opportunities 52
6.6.2 Dichotomous Variable for Upward Forecast Revision 52
7. Conclusion 53
Appendix A-Variable Definitions 55
References 69		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102353501en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 供應鏈zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資本支出zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 長鞭效應zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測修正zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) supply chainen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) capital investmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) bullwhip effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) forecast revisionen_US
dc.title (題名) 管理當局預測修正對於供應鏈成員資本支出的影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Effect of Forecast Revision on Capital Investment along the Supply Chainen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Aeppel, T. 2010. `Bullwhip` Hits Firms as Growth Snaps Back. Wall Street Journal, 29-31.
Agrawal, D., S. T. Bharath, and S. Viswanathan. 2004. Technological change and stock return volatility: Evidence from eCommerce adoptions. Available at SSRN 387543.
Ajinkya, B., S. Bhojraj, and P. Sengupta. 2005. The Association between Outside Directors, Institutional Investors and the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (3):343-376.
Ajinkya, B. B., and M. J. Gift. 1984. Corporate managers` earnings forecasts and symmetrical adjustments of market expectations. Journal of Accounting Research:425-444.
Anderson, M. C., R. D. Banker, and S. N. Janakiraman. 2003. Are Selling, General, and Administrative Costs "Sticky"? Journal of Accounting Research 41 (1):47-63.
Anilowski, C., M. Feng, and D. J. Skinner. 2007. Does earnings guidance affect market returns? The nature and information content of aggregate earnings guidance. Journal of accounting and economics 44 (1):36-63.
Bailey, W., H. Li, C. X. Mao, and R. Zhong. 2003. Regulation fair disclosure and earnings information: Market, analyst, and corporate responses. The Journal of Finance 58 (6):2487-2514.
Baiman, S., P. E. Fischer, and M. V. Rajan. 2001. Performance measurement and design in supply chains. Management Science 47 (1):173-188.
Baiman, S., and M. V. Rajan. 2002. The Role of Information and Opportunism in the Choice of Buyer-Supplier Relationships. Journal of Accounting Research 40 (2):247-278.
Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis. 2016. Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4):1593-1636.
Bamber, L. S., and Y. S. Cheon. 1998. Discretionary Management Earnings Forecast Disclosures: Antecedents and Outcomes Associated with Forecast Venue and Forecast Specificity Choices. Journal of Accounting Research 36 (2):167-190.
Banker, R. D., S. Basu, D. Byzalov, and J. Y. S. Chen. 2016. The confounding effect of cost stickiness on conservatism estimates. Journal of accounting and economics 61 (1):203-220.
Bernanke, B. S. 1983. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1):85-106.
Beyer, A., D. A. Cohen, T. Z. Lys, and B. R. Walther. 2010. The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature. Journal of accounting and economics 50 (2–3):296-343.
Biddle, G. C., G. Hilary, and R. S. Verdi. 2009. How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency? Journal of accounting and economics 48 (2–3):112-131.
Bloom, N., S. Bond, and J. Van Reenen. 2007. Uncertainty and investment dynamics. The Review of Economic Studies 74 (2):391-415.
Bonaime, A., H. Gulen, and M. Ion. 2018. Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions? Journal of Financial Economics 129 (3):531-558.
Bray, R. L., and H. Mendelson. 2012. Information transmission and the bullwhip effect: An empirical investigation. Management Science 58 (5):860-875.
Cachon, G. P., T. Randall, and G. M. Schmidt. 2007. In search of the bullwhip effect. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9 (4):457-479.
Cen, L., E. L. Maydew, L. Zhang, and L. Zuo. 2017. Customer–supplier relationships and corporate tax avoidance. Journal of Financial Economics 123 (2):377-394.
Cen, L., E. L. Maydew, L. Zhang, and L. Zuo. 2018. Tax Planning Diffusion, Real Effects, and Sharing of Benefits.
Chang, H., J. Chen, S. W. Hsu, and R. Mashruwala. 2018. The Impact of the Bullwhip Effect on Sales and Earnings Prediction Using Order Backlog. Contemporary Accounting Research 35 (2):1140-1165.
Chatfield, D. C., J. G. Kim, T. P. Harrison, and J. C. Hayya. 2004. The Bullwhip Effect—Impact of Stochastic Lead Time, Information Quality, and Information Sharing: A Simulation Study. Production and Operations Management 13 (4):340-353.
Chen, C., J. B. Kim, M. Wei, and H. Zhang. 2018. Linguistic Information Quality in Customers` Forward‐Looking Disclosures and Suppliers` Investment Decisions. Contemporary Accounting Research.
Chen, F., Z. Drezner, J. K. Ryan, and D. Simchi-Levi. 2000. Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: The impact of forecasting, lead times, and information. Management Science 46 (3):436-443.
Chin, C. L., and K. T. Nien. 2015. The Association between Analysts’ Forecast Revision and Management Earnings Forecast from Firms in the Supply Chain. In Annual Meeting of the American Accounting Association. Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Chiu, T. T., J. B. Kim, and Z. Wang. 2018. Customers’ risk factor disclosures and suppliers’ investment efficiency. Contemporary Accounting Research.
Chu, Y., X. Tian, and W. Wang. 2018. Corporate innovation along the supply chain. Management Science, Forthcoming.
Coller, M., and T. L. Yohn. 1997. Management forecasts and information asymmetry: An examination of bid-ask spreads. Journal of Accounting Research 35 (2):181-191.
Correia, S. 2015. Singletons, cluster-robust standard errors and fixed effects: A bad mix. Technical Note, Duke University.
Dai, R., H. Liang, and L. K. Ng. 2019. Socially Responsible Corporate Customers. Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming.
Dangl, T., and Y. Wu. 2015. Corporate investment over the business cycle. Review of Finance 20 (1):337-371.
Diamond, D. W., and R. E. Verrecchia. 1991. Disclosure, liquidity, and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 46 (4):1325-1359.
Dixit, A. K., and R. S. Pindyck. 1994. Investment under uncertainty: Princeton university press.
Forrester, J. W. 1958. INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS:a major breakthrough for decision makers. Harvard business review 36 (4):37-66.
Fuller, K., J. Netter, and M. Stegemoller. 2002. What do returns to acquiring firms tell us? Evidence from firms that make many acquisitions. The Journal of Finance 57 (4):1763-1793.
Goodman, T. H., M. Neamtiu, N. Shroff, and H. D. White. 2014. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions. The Accounting Review 89 (1):331-365.
Graham, J. R., C. R. Harvey, and S. Rajgopal. 2005. The economic implications of corporate financial reporting. Journal of accounting and economics 40 (1–3):3-73.
Grossman, S. J., and O. D. Hart. 1986. The costs and benefits of ownership: A theory of vertical and lateral integration. Journal of Political Economy 94 (4):691-719.
Gulen, H., and M. Ion. 2016. Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies 29 (3):523-564.
Hart, O., and J. Moore. 1988. Incomplete contracts and renegotiation. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society:755-785.
———. 1990. Property Rights and the Nature of the Firm. Journal of Political Economy 98 (6):1119-1158.
Healy, P. M., A. P. Hutton, and K. G. Palepu. 1999. Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 (3):485-520.
Heflin, F., K. Subramanyam, and Y. Zhang. 2003. Regulation FD and the financial information environment: Early evidence. The Accounting Review 78 (1):1-37.
Hertzel, M. G., Z. Li, M. S. Officer, and K. J. Rodgers. 2008. Inter-firm linkages and the wealth effects of financial distress along the supply chain. Journal of Financial Economics 87 (2):374-387.
Hilary, G., C. Hsu, and R. Wang. 2014. Management forecast consistency. Journal of Accounting Research 52 (1):163-191.
Hirshleifer, D. A., J. N. Myers, L. A. Myers, and S. H. Teoh. 2008. Do Individual Investors Cause Post-Earnings Announcement Drift? Direct Evidence from Personal Trades. The Accounting Review 83 (6):1521-1550.
Hirst, D. E., L. Koonce, and S. Venkataraman. 2008. Management Earnings Forecasts:A Review and Framework. Accounting Horizons 22 (3):315-338.
Huang, Y., R. Jennings, and Y. Yu. 2017. Product Market Competition and Managerial Disclosure of Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Import Tariff Rate Reductions. Accounting Review 19 (3):185-207.
Integrity, B. R. t. I. f. C. E. a. C. I. C. f. F. M. 2006. Breaking the short-term cycle.
Irvine, P. J., and J. Pontiff. 2008. Idiosyncratic return volatility, cash flows, and product market competition. The Review of Financial Studies 22 (3):1149-1177.
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000391en_US