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題名 利用合成控制法估計加入歐盟對經濟成長的影響：來自中歐四國的證據
Estimating the Impact of Joining the European Union on the Economic Growth Using Synthetic Control Method: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries
作者 彭怡愷
Pomykalova, Lenka
貢獻者 楊子霆
Yang, Tzu-Ting
彭怡愷
Pomykalova, Lenka
關鍵詞 歐盟
合成控制法
捷克
斯洛伐克
波蘭
匈牙利
European Union
Visegrad Group
Synthetic Control Method
GDP
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Poland
Hungary
日期 2020
上傳時間 1-Jul-2020 14:07:25 (UTC+8)
摘要 The main aim of the thesis is to estimate the effect of joining the European Union on the Visegrad group countries. The growth effects were estimated for the GDP per capita and the GDP components of the Visegrad group countries by using the synthetic control method. The results of the analysis show that the membership in the European Union had a positive effect on the GDP per capita of three countries, Czech Republic, Slovakia and for the last treated years, Poland. The results revealed negative effect of the membership on the GDP per capita in Hungary. The analysis also showed that the net export per capita was the main driving force of the GDP per capita growth in the Visegrad Group countries, gained by the increased trade with the European Union members and the single market accession. The results for the rest of the GDP components were inconclusive and mostly statistically insignificant.
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Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2), 495-510. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12116
Archick, K. (2005). European Union Enlargement. Library of Congress Washington DC Congressional Research Service. Retrieved April 16, 2020 from https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA464686
Arpaia, A., & Turrini, A. (2008). Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment. European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 300, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). Retrieved April 16, 2020 from http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications
Baldwin, R. E. (1994). Towards an integrated Europe (Vol. 25, No. 234). London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Baldwin, R. E., Francois, J. F., & Portes, R. (1997). EU enlargement: Small costs for the west, big gains for the east. Economic Policy, 24, 127-175. Retrieved April 14, 2020 from https://www.jstor.org/stable/1344733
Baldwin, R. E., Wyplosz, C., & Wyplosz, C. (2006). The economics of European integration (Vol. 2). Berkshire: McGraw-Hill Education.
Beacháin, D. Ó., Sheridan, V., & Stan, S. (Eds.). (2012). Life in post-communist Eastern Europe after EU membership (Vol. 37). London: Routledge.
Belka, Marek. (2013). How Poland`s EU membership helped transform its economy. Washington, DC: Group of Thirty.
Berend, I. T., & Berend, T. I. (2009). From the Soviet bloc to the European Union: the economic and social transformation of Central and Eastern Europe since 1973. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Billmeier, A., & Nannicini, T. (2013). Assessing economic liberalization episodes: A synthetic control approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3), 983-1001. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00324
Böröcz, J. (2012). Hungary in the European Union:`Catching Up`, Forever. Economic and Political Weekly, 47, 22-25. Retrieved May 14, 2020 from http://aei.pitt.edu/95136/.
Böwer, U., & Turrini, A. (2010). EU accession: a road to fast-track convergence?. Comparative Economic Studies, 52(2), 181-205. doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2010.7
Breuss, F. (2001). Macroeconomic effects of EU enlargement for old and new members (No. 143). WIFO Working Papers. Retrieved May 17, 2020 from https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/128688
Campos, N. F., Coricelli, F., & Moretti, L. (2014). Economic growth and political integration: estimating the benefits from membership in the European Union using the synthetic counterfactuals method. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8162. Retrieved May 14, 2020 from https://ssrn.com/abstract=2432446
Crespo Cuaresma, J., Ritzberger-Grünwald, D., & Silgoner, M. A. (2008). Growth, convergence and EU membership. Applied Economics, 40(5), 643-656. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600749524
Dangerfield, M. (2009). The Contribution of the Visegrad Group to the European Union`s ‘Eastern’Policy: Rhetoric or Reality?. Europe-Asia Studies, 61(10), 1735-1755. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130903278934
Dedman, M. (2006). The origins and development of the European Union 1945-1995: a history of European integration. (2nd ed.). New York: Routledge.
EUR-Lex. (2007)-a. The 2004 enlargement: the challenge of a 25-member EU. Retrieved February 12, 2020 from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=LEGISSUM:e50017&from=EN
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European Commission. (2009). Five years of an enlarged EU Economic achievements and challenges. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. doi: 10.2765/11656
European Commission. (n.d.). 15 rokov Slovenska v Európskej únii. Retrieved April 16, 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/slovakia/news/15_rokov_sr_v_eu_sk.
European Commission. Balcerowicz, E. (2007). The Impact of Poland`s EU Accession on its Economy. Center for Social and Economic Research CASE Report No. 335. Retrieved May 16, 2020 from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1015782
European Parliament. (2018). The historical development of European integration. Retrieved February 11, 2020 from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/PERI/2018/618969/IPOL_PERI(2018)618969_EN.pdf
European Union. (n.d.). Living in the EU. Retrieved 22 May 2020, from https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/figures/living_en
Gomułka, S. (2016). Poland`s economic and social transformation 1989–2014 and contemporary challenges. Central Bank Review, 16(1), 19-23. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.03.005
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Henrekson, M., Torstensson, J., & Torstensson, R. (1997). Growth effects of European integration. European Economic Review, 41(8), 1537-1557. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00063-9
Ivanová, E., & Masárová, J. (2018). Performance evaluation of the Visegrad Group countries. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 31(1), 270-289. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1429944
Jedlička, J., Kotian, J., & Münz, R. (2014). Visegrad Four-10 years of EU membership. Erste Group Research CEE Special Report. Retrieved April 19, 2020 from https://www.erstebank.hr/content/dam/hr/ebc/www_erstebank_hr/misc/press/2014/2014_04_23_EN_Report_Visegrad.pdf.
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Kovacevic, T. (2019). EU budget: Who pays most in and who gets most back?. Retrieved March 15, 2020 from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48256318.
Koyame-Marsh, R. O. (2011). The complexities of economic transition: Lessons from the Czech Republic and Slovakia. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(19). Retrieved March 15, 2020 from http://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_19_Special_Issue_October_2011/8.pdf
Kumar, A., & Liang, C. Y. (2018). Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. FRB of Dallas Working Paper No. 1810. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.24149/wp1810r1
Kutan, A. M., & Yigit, T. M. (2007). European integration, productivity growth and real convergence. European Economic Review, 51(6), 1370-1395. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2006.11.001
Maliszewska, M. (2004). EU enlargement: benefits of the single market expansion for current and new member states. CASE Network Studies and Analyses, (273). Retrieved March 15, 2020 from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1440164
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
107266010
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266010
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 楊子霆zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yang, Tzu-Tingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 彭怡愷zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Pomykalova, Lenkaen_US
dc.creator (作者) 彭怡愷zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Pomykalova, Lenkaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2020en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2020 14:07:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Jul-2020 14:07:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2020 14:07:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107266010en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/130673-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 107266010zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The main aim of the thesis is to estimate the effect of joining the European Union on the Visegrad group countries. The growth effects were estimated for the GDP per capita and the GDP components of the Visegrad group countries by using the synthetic control method. The results of the analysis show that the membership in the European Union had a positive effect on the GDP per capita of three countries, Czech Republic, Slovakia and for the last treated years, Poland. The results revealed negative effect of the membership on the GDP per capita in Hungary. The analysis also showed that the net export per capita was the main driving force of the GDP per capita growth in the Visegrad Group countries, gained by the increased trade with the European Union members and the single market accession. The results for the rest of the GDP components were inconclusive and mostly statistically insignificant.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 1
2 Background 4
2.1 The European Union 4
2.2 The 2004 EU Enlargement 6
2.3 Visegrad Group 8
3 Literature Review 13
4 Data Description 17
4.1 Sample 18
4.2 Variables 19
4.3 Summary statistics 20
5 Methodology 24
6 Preliminary results 27
7 Results 35
7.1 Czech Republic 35
7.2 Hungary 45
7.3 Poland 56
7.4 Slovak Republic 66
7.5 Results comparison 75
8 Discussion 81
9 Conclusion 85
10 References 88
Appendix A: Data description 94
Appendix B: Detail of SCM results 95		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 4427856 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266010en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 歐盟zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成控制法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 捷克zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 斯洛伐克zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 波蘭zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匈牙利zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) European Unionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Visegrad Groupen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Synthetic Control Methoden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) GDPen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Czech Republicen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Slovak Republicen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Polanden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hungaryen_US
dc.title (題名) 利用合成控制法估計加入歐盟對經濟成長的影響：來自中歐四國的證據zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Estimating the Impact of Joining the European Union on the Economic Growth Using Synthetic Control Method: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countriesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abadie, A. (2019). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature. Retrieved May 14, 2020 from https://economics.mit.edu/files/17847
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American economic review, 93(1), 113-132. doi: 10.1257/000282803321455188
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2), 495-510. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12116
Archick, K. (2005). European Union Enlargement. Library of Congress Washington DC Congressional Research Service. Retrieved April 16, 2020 from https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA464686
Arpaia, A., & Turrini, A. (2008). Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment. European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 300, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). Retrieved April 16, 2020 from http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications
Baldwin, R. E. (1994). Towards an integrated Europe (Vol. 25, No. 234). London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Baldwin, R. E., Francois, J. F., & Portes, R. (1997). EU enlargement: Small costs for the west, big gains for the east. Economic Policy, 24, 127-175. Retrieved April 14, 2020 from https://www.jstor.org/stable/1344733
Baldwin, R. E., Wyplosz, C., & Wyplosz, C. (2006). The economics of European integration (Vol. 2). Berkshire: McGraw-Hill Education.
Beacháin, D. Ó., Sheridan, V., & Stan, S. (Eds.). (2012). Life in post-communist Eastern Europe after EU membership (Vol. 37). London: Routledge.
Belka, Marek. (2013). How Poland`s EU membership helped transform its economy. Washington, DC: Group of Thirty.
Berend, I. T., & Berend, T. I. (2009). From the Soviet bloc to the European Union: the economic and social transformation of Central and Eastern Europe since 1973. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Billmeier, A., & Nannicini, T. (2013). Assessing economic liberalization episodes: A synthetic control approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3), 983-1001. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00324
Böröcz, J. (2012). Hungary in the European Union:`Catching Up`, Forever. Economic and Political Weekly, 47, 22-25. Retrieved May 14, 2020 from http://aei.pitt.edu/95136/.
Böwer, U., & Turrini, A. (2010). EU accession: a road to fast-track convergence?. Comparative Economic Studies, 52(2), 181-205. doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2010.7
Breuss, F. (2001). Macroeconomic effects of EU enlargement for old and new members (No. 143). WIFO Working Papers. Retrieved May 17, 2020 from https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/128688
Campos, N. F., Coricelli, F., & Moretti, L. (2014). Economic growth and political integration: estimating the benefits from membership in the European Union using the synthetic counterfactuals method. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8162. Retrieved May 14, 2020 from https://ssrn.com/abstract=2432446
Crespo Cuaresma, J., Ritzberger-Grünwald, D., & Silgoner, M. A. (2008). Growth, convergence and EU membership. Applied Economics, 40(5), 643-656. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600749524
Dangerfield, M. (2009). The Contribution of the Visegrad Group to the European Union`s ‘Eastern’Policy: Rhetoric or Reality?. Europe-Asia Studies, 61(10), 1735-1755. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668130903278934
Dedman, M. (2006). The origins and development of the European Union 1945-1995: a history of European integration. (2nd ed.). New York: Routledge.
EUR-Lex. (2007)-a. The 2004 enlargement: the challenge of a 25-member EU. Retrieved February 12, 2020 from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=LEGISSUM:e50017&from=EN
EUR-Lex. (2007)-b. Accession Criteria (Copenhagen Criteria). Retrieved 4 April 2020, from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EL/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM:e50026
EUR-Lex. (n.d). Enlargement, two years after - an economic success. Retrieved February 12, 2020 from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/accession_criteria_copenhague.html
European Commission. (2001). The economic impact of enlargement. European Communities. Retrieved May 23, 2020 from https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trade/workshop/april2003/5EconomicImpactOfEnlargement.pdf
European Commission. (2009). Five years of an enlarged EU Economic achievements and challenges. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. doi: 10.2765/11656
European Commission. (n.d.). 15 rokov Slovenska v Európskej únii. Retrieved April 16, 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/slovakia/news/15_rokov_sr_v_eu_sk.
European Commission. Balcerowicz, E. (2007). The Impact of Poland`s EU Accession on its Economy. Center for Social and Economic Research CASE Report No. 335. Retrieved May 16, 2020 from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1015782
European Parliament. (2018). The historical development of European integration. Retrieved February 11, 2020 from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/PERI/2018/618969/IPOL_PERI(2018)618969_EN.pdf
European Union. (n.d.). Living in the EU. Retrieved 22 May 2020, from https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/figures/living_en
Gomułka, S. (2016). Poland`s economic and social transformation 1989–2014 and contemporary challenges. Central Bank Review, 16(1), 19-23. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.03.005
Government of the Czech Republic. (2010). Cost-cutting Budget For 2011. Retrieved May 23, 2020 from https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centrum/aktualne/cost-cutting-budget-for-2011-75862/
Győrffy, D. (2007). Deficit bias and moral hazard on the road to the EMU: The political dimension of fiscal policy in Hungary. Post-Communist Economies, 19(1), 1-16. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/14631370601162907
Henrekson, M., Torstensson, J., & Torstensson, R. (1997). Growth effects of European integration. European Economic Review, 41(8), 1537-1557. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00063-9
Ivanová, E., & Masárová, J. (2018). Performance evaluation of the Visegrad Group countries. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 31(1), 270-289. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1429944
Jedlička, J., Kotian, J., & Münz, R. (2014). Visegrad Four-10 years of EU membership. Erste Group Research CEE Special Report. Retrieved April 19, 2020 from https://www.erstebank.hr/content/dam/hr/ebc/www_erstebank_hr/misc/press/2014/2014_04_23_EN_Report_Visegrad.pdf.
Kolodziejczyk, K. (2016). Poland in the European Union. Ten years of membership. Revista UNISCI, (40), 9-26. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5209/rev_RUNI.2016.n40.51803
Kovacevic, T. (2019). EU budget: Who pays most in and who gets most back?. Retrieved March 15, 2020 from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48256318.
Koyame-Marsh, R. O. (2011). The complexities of economic transition: Lessons from the Czech Republic and Slovakia. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(19). Retrieved March 15, 2020 from http://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_19_Special_Issue_October_2011/8.pdf
Kumar, A., & Liang, C. Y. (2018). Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. FRB of Dallas Working Paper No. 1810. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.24149/wp1810r1
Kutan, A. M., & Yigit, T. M. (2007). European integration, productivity growth and real convergence. European Economic Review, 51(6), 1370-1395. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2006.11.001
Maliszewska, M. (2004). EU enlargement: benefits of the single market expansion for current and new member states. CASE Network Studies and Analyses, (273). Retrieved March 15, 2020 from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1440164
Mann, K. (2015). The EU, a growth engine? The impact of European integration on economic growth in Central Eastern Europe (No. 136). FIW Working Paper. Retrieved March 15, 2020 from https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/121136
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000585en_US