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題名 經濟失落經驗如何影響房市發展？–以日本為例
How Lost Decades’ Experience Influence the Housing Markets: A Lesson from Japan作者 陳琬宜
Chen, Wan-I貢獻者 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
陳琬宜
Chen, Wan-I關鍵詞 失落十年
經驗效果
房價偏離
日本房市
lost decades
experience effects
house price deviation
Japanese housing market日期 2020 上傳時間 3-Aug-2020 17:33:21 (UTC+8) 摘要 經驗效果 (experience effects) 指出民眾終身經驗會影響到未來看法及決策，不論是在金融商品、勞動市場，甚至預期通膨均適用，全球金融市場曾經歷過幾次重大的總體經濟衝擊，此亦同時重創到房地產市場，許多國家至今房市發展仍尚未完全復甦，本研究認為每個人的購屋意願會與他們過往所經歷的房市循環息息相關，尤其以日本最為明顯，在房市泡沫後經歷長達三十年之久的失落經驗，影響到民眾對於房市持有悲觀的看法，不願意購買自住房屋。本研究根據經驗效果建立出個別縣市的購屋意願，衡量一縣市民眾在經歷過去房價相對偏離東京水準的長久經驗後，購屋意願是否會影響到房地產市場發展。主要的實證結果如下：(1) 日本整體縣市購屋意願對租金為顯著負向影響，當地區房價水準相對東京較不偏離時，民眾的購屋意願程度較高，將負向抑制租金價格成長，且此影響在房價相對東京上漲不超過0.0030個單位最為劇烈，不過若房價上漲超過此一程度則會產生相反的效果；若區分整體縣市為都市區及非都市區，非都市區的購屋意願對租金之負面影響更加強烈，都市區卻不顯著，推測日本國內存在城鄉差距，各大都會圈之房價會自動調整，因此與東京異質性較低，導致購屋意願無法顯著反應在租金市場上。(2) 將租金以交易量替代為觀察變數後，日本八大都市的購屋意願雖正向影響交易量但並不顯著，再次驗證租金之結果。(3) 透過計算各縣市1985年至2015年之累積房價相對東京水準之偏離經驗，觀察到長久的過去失落累積經驗能夠解釋地區房市之差異，當地區購屋意願越高時，能發揮抑制到租金價格成長的作用，這同時也正面反應在住宅自有率上，使得人們較願意購屋，然而在房地產交易量較無法利用累積經驗來解釋地區差異。
Experience effects indicates that lifetime experience will affect people`s overviews and decisions about the future, whether it is in financial commodities, labor markets, or even inflation expectations. Global financial markets have experienced several major overall macroeconomic shocks, and this also affected the real estate market, many countries still have not yet fully recovered. This study believes that everyone’s willingness to be a homeowner is closely related to the housing market cycle they have experienced in the past, especially in Japan. We establishes the willingness to buy a house in individual city based on experience effects, and measures whether the willingness will affect the development of the real estate market after a long term experience of housing prices deviating from the Tokyo in the past. The main empirical results are as follows: (1) Japan`s overall prefecture-level willingness has a significant negative impact on rents. When the regional house price level does not deviate too far from Tokyo, the willingness to purchase a house is relatively high, which will negatively restrain rental price growth. Moreover, this effect is most severe when housing prices rise by no more than 0.0030 units relative to Tokyo. If we divided the overall city into urban and non-urban areas, the non-urban area`s willingness to buy a house is more negative on rent, but the urban area is not significant because of low heterogeneity between cities. (2) After replacing rent with trading volume, the willingness to buy a house in the eight metropolitan areas positively affects the volume but is not significant, same as the result of rent. (3) By calculating the accumulated deviation experience relative to Tokyo in various cities from 1985 to 2015, it is confirmed that the long-term accumulated willingness to buy a home can explain the difference in the housing market in the region.參考文獻 一、中文資料李佳霖、謝文真 (2009) 「臺灣家庭擁屋決定因素分析：性別和地區差異」，住宅學報，第26卷第1期：31-53.二、英文資料Bostic, R., Gabriel, S. and Painter, G. (2000) “Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, and Consumption: New Evidence From Micro Data,” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics volume, 21, 65–86.Collin-Dufresne, P., Johannes, M. and Lochstoer, Lars A. (2017) “Asset Pricing When This Time Is Different,” The Review of Financial Studies, 30(2), 505-535.DeSalvo, J.S. and Eeckhoudt, L.R. (1982) “Household Behavior Under Income Uncertainty in a Monocentric Urban Area” Journal of Urban Economics, 11, 98-111.Deutsch, E., Tiwari, P. and Moriizumi, Y. (2006) “The Slowdown in the Timing of Housing Purchases in Japan in the 1990s” Journal of Housing Economics, 15(3), 230-256.Diamond, J., Watanabe, K. and Watanabe, T. (2019) “The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence From Japan’s Deflation Experience,” 19, Bank of Japan Working Paper Series.DiPasquale, D. and Glaeser, E. L. (1999) “Incentives and social capital: are homeowners better citizens?” Journal of urban Economics, 45(2), 354–384.Glaeser, E. L. and Shapiro, J. M. (2002) “The benefits of the home mortgage interest deduction,” National Bureau of Economic Research No. w9284Hansen, B.E (1999) “Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference” Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345–368.Haurin, D.R. and Gill, H.L. (1987) “Effects of Income Variability on the Demand for Owner-occupied Housing” Journal of Urban Economics, 22, 136–150.Haurin, D.R. (1991) “Income Variability, Homeownership, and Housing Demand” Journal of Housing Economics, 1, 60–74.Hayashi, F. and Prescott, E. C. (2002) “The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade,” Review of Economic Dynamics, 5(1), 206–235Horioka, C. Y. (2006) “The Causes of Japan`s ‘Lost Decade’: The Role of Household Consumption,” Japan and the World Economy, 18(4), 378-400.Levin, A., Lin, C. F., and Chu, C. S. J. (2010) “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties,” Journal of econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.Iwaisako, T. (2009) “Household Portfolios in Japan,” Japan and the World Economy, 21(4), 373–382.Iwaisako, T., Ono, A., Saito, A. and Tokuda, H. (2015) “Residential Property and Household Stock Holdings: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data,” The Economic Review (in Japanese), 66(3), 242–264.Malmendier, U. and Nagel, S. (2011) “Depression Babies do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1), 373–416.Malmendier, U., and Nagel, S. (2016) “Learning from Inflation Experiences,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(1), 53–87.Malmendier, U. and A. Steiny (2017) “Rent or buy? The role of lifetime experiences ofmacroeconomic shocks within and across countries,” Working Paper, UC Berkeley.Malmendier, U., Nagel, S. and Yan, Z. (2017) “The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC,” NBER Working Paper, 23228.Malmendier, U. and Shen, L. S. (2018) “Scarred Consumption,” NBER Working Paper, 24696.Malmendier, U., Pouzo, D., and Vanasco, V. (2019) “Investor Experiences and Financial Market Dynamics,” Journal of Financial Economics, 15.Miyamoto, S. (2005) “How Household’ Balance Sheets Affects Their Asset Allocation — Implications for Future Private Outflows from Japan,” Financial and Economic Research Center.Moriizumi, Y. (2000) “Current Wealth, Housing Purchase, and Private Housing Loan Demand in Japan,” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics volume, 21, 65–86.Moriizumi, Y. (2003) “Targeted Saving by Renters for Housing Purchase in Japan,” Journal of Urban Economics, 53(3), 494–509.Moriizumi, Y. and Naoi, M. (2011) “Unemployment Risk and the Timing of Homeownership in Japan,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 41(3), 227-235.Moriizumi, Y. and Naoi, M. (2012), “Unemployment risk, homeownership and housing wealth; lessons from the bubble aftermath in Japan”, in Jones, C. , White, M. and Dunse, N. (Eds), Challenges of the Housing Economy: An International Perspective (pp. 58-89), Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford.Nagayasu, J. and Inakura, N. (2009) “PPP: Further Evidence from Japanese Municipal Data,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 18, 419-427.Oreopoulos, P., Wachter, T. V. and Heisz, A. (2012) “The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(1), 1-29.Robst, J., Deitz, R., McGoldrick, K. (1999) “Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 29, 219–229.Sodini, P., Nieuwerburgh, S. Van, Vestman, R. and Lilienfeld-Toal, U. von. (2016) “Identifying the benefits from home ownership: A swedish experiment,” Available at SSRN 2785741.Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974) “Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases,” Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.Tachibanaki, T. (1994) “Housing and Saving in Japan, in: Y. Noguchi & N. Poterbaj (Eds)”, Housing Markets in United States and Japan (Chicago, University of Chicago Press) .Yukutake, N. and Moriizumi, Y. (2018) “Credit Constraints and the Delay of Homeownership by Young Households in Japan,” International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 13(1), 56–76. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
107357009資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107357009 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳明吉 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Ming-Chi en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳琬宜 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Wan-I en_US dc.creator (作者) 陳琬宜 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chen, Wan-I en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Aug-2020 17:33:21 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Aug-2020 17:33:21 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Aug-2020 17:33:21 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107357009 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/130966 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107357009 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 經驗效果 (experience effects) 指出民眾終身經驗會影響到未來看法及決策，不論是在金融商品、勞動市場，甚至預期通膨均適用，全球金融市場曾經歷過幾次重大的總體經濟衝擊，此亦同時重創到房地產市場，許多國家至今房市發展仍尚未完全復甦，本研究認為每個人的購屋意願會與他們過往所經歷的房市循環息息相關，尤其以日本最為明顯，在房市泡沫後經歷長達三十年之久的失落經驗，影響到民眾對於房市持有悲觀的看法，不願意購買自住房屋。本研究根據經驗效果建立出個別縣市的購屋意願，衡量一縣市民眾在經歷過去房價相對偏離東京水準的長久經驗後，購屋意願是否會影響到房地產市場發展。主要的實證結果如下：(1) 日本整體縣市購屋意願對租金為顯著負向影響，當地區房價水準相對東京較不偏離時，民眾的購屋意願程度較高，將負向抑制租金價格成長，且此影響在房價相對東京上漲不超過0.0030個單位最為劇烈，不過若房價上漲超過此一程度則會產生相反的效果；若區分整體縣市為都市區及非都市區，非都市區的購屋意願對租金之負面影響更加強烈，都市區卻不顯著，推測日本國內存在城鄉差距，各大都會圈之房價會自動調整，因此與東京異質性較低，導致購屋意願無法顯著反應在租金市場上。(2) 將租金以交易量替代為觀察變數後，日本八大都市的購屋意願雖正向影響交易量但並不顯著，再次驗證租金之結果。(3) 透過計算各縣市1985年至2015年之累積房價相對東京水準之偏離經驗，觀察到長久的過去失落累積經驗能夠解釋地區房市之差異，當地區購屋意願越高時，能發揮抑制到租金價格成長的作用，這同時也正面反應在住宅自有率上，使得人們較願意購屋，然而在房地產交易量較無法利用累積經驗來解釋地區差異。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Experience effects indicates that lifetime experience will affect people`s overviews and decisions about the future, whether it is in financial commodities, labor markets, or even inflation expectations. Global financial markets have experienced several major overall macroeconomic shocks, and this also affected the real estate market, many countries still have not yet fully recovered. This study believes that everyone’s willingness to be a homeowner is closely related to the housing market cycle they have experienced in the past, especially in Japan. We establishes the willingness to buy a house in individual city based on experience effects, and measures whether the willingness will affect the development of the real estate market after a long term experience of housing prices deviating from the Tokyo in the past. The main empirical results are as follows: (1) Japan`s overall prefecture-level willingness has a significant negative impact on rents. When the regional house price level does not deviate too far from Tokyo, the willingness to purchase a house is relatively high, which will negatively restrain rental price growth. Moreover, this effect is most severe when housing prices rise by no more than 0.0030 units relative to Tokyo. If we divided the overall city into urban and non-urban areas, the non-urban area`s willingness to buy a house is more negative on rent, but the urban area is not significant because of low heterogeneity between cities. (2) After replacing rent with trading volume, the willingness to buy a house in the eight metropolitan areas positively affects the volume but is not significant, same as the result of rent. (3) By calculating the accumulated deviation experience relative to Tokyo in various cities from 1985 to 2015, it is confirmed that the long-term accumulated willingness to buy a home can explain the difference in the housing market in the region. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、 緒論.................................1第一節 研究背景與動機..........................1第二節 研究目的................................7第三節 研究架構與流程..........................9第二章、 文獻回顧.............................10第一節 經驗效果與房市之關聯性..................10第二節 影響房地產市場之重要因素................13第三章、 研究設計.............................15第一節 研究假說與地區差異分析..................15第二節 變數定義及衡量方式......................20第三節 研究方法...............................24第四節 研究樣本與資料來源......................27第四章、 實證結果分析..........................29第一節 樣本資料分析............................29第二節 購屋意願對房市之影響.....................33第三節 穩健性測試..............................40第四節 購屋意願對各地區房市差異之分析............43第五章、 結論與後續建議.........................53第一節 研究結論................................53第二節 限制與後續建議...........................55參考文獻 ......................................56附錄一........................................60附錄二........................................63 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1566741 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107357009 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失落十年 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經驗效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價偏離 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日本房市 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) lost decades en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) experience effects en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) house price deviation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Japanese housing market en_US dc.title (題名) 經濟失落經驗如何影響房市發展？–以日本為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) How Lost Decades’ Experience Influence the Housing Markets: A Lesson from Japan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文資料李佳霖、謝文真 (2009) 「臺灣家庭擁屋決定因素分析：性別和地區差異」，住宅學報，第26卷第1期：31-53.二、英文資料Bostic, R., Gabriel, S. and Painter, G. (2000) “Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, and Consumption: New Evidence From Micro Data,” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics volume, 21, 65–86.Collin-Dufresne, P., Johannes, M. and Lochstoer, Lars A. (2017) “Asset Pricing When This Time Is Different,” The Review of Financial Studies, 30(2), 505-535.DeSalvo, J.S. and Eeckhoudt, L.R. (1982) “Household Behavior Under Income Uncertainty in a Monocentric Urban Area” Journal of Urban Economics, 11, 98-111.Deutsch, E., Tiwari, P. and Moriizumi, Y. (2006) “The Slowdown in the Timing of Housing Purchases in Japan in the 1990s” Journal of Housing Economics, 15(3), 230-256.Diamond, J., Watanabe, K. and Watanabe, T. (2019) “The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence From Japan’s Deflation Experience,” 19, Bank of Japan Working Paper Series.DiPasquale, D. and Glaeser, E. L. (1999) “Incentives and social capital: are homeowners better citizens?” Journal of urban Economics, 45(2), 354–384.Glaeser, E. L. and Shapiro, J. M. (2002) “The benefits of the home mortgage interest deduction,” National Bureau of Economic Research No. w9284Hansen, B.E (1999) “Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference” Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345–368.Haurin, D.R. and Gill, H.L. (1987) “Effects of Income Variability on the Demand for Owner-occupied Housing” Journal of Urban Economics, 22, 136–150.Haurin, D.R. (1991) “Income Variability, Homeownership, and Housing Demand” Journal of Housing Economics, 1, 60–74.Hayashi, F. and Prescott, E. C. (2002) “The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade,” Review of Economic Dynamics, 5(1), 206–235Horioka, C. Y. (2006) “The Causes of Japan`s ‘Lost Decade’: The Role of Household Consumption,” Japan and the World Economy, 18(4), 378-400.Levin, A., Lin, C. F., and Chu, C. S. J. (2010) “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties,” Journal of econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.Iwaisako, T. (2009) “Household Portfolios in Japan,” Japan and the World Economy, 21(4), 373–382.Iwaisako, T., Ono, A., Saito, A. and Tokuda, H. (2015) “Residential Property and Household Stock Holdings: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data,” The Economic Review (in Japanese), 66(3), 242–264.Malmendier, U. and Nagel, S. (2011) “Depression Babies do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1), 373–416.Malmendier, U., and Nagel, S. (2016) “Learning from Inflation Experiences,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(1), 53–87.Malmendier, U. and A. Steiny (2017) “Rent or buy? The role of lifetime experiences ofmacroeconomic shocks within and across countries,” Working Paper, UC Berkeley.Malmendier, U., Nagel, S. and Yan, Z. (2017) “The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC,” NBER Working Paper, 23228.Malmendier, U. and Shen, L. S. (2018) “Scarred Consumption,” NBER Working Paper, 24696.Malmendier, U., Pouzo, D., and Vanasco, V. (2019) “Investor Experiences and Financial Market Dynamics,” Journal of Financial Economics, 15.Miyamoto, S. (2005) “How Household’ Balance Sheets Affects Their Asset Allocation — Implications for Future Private Outflows from Japan,” Financial and Economic Research Center.Moriizumi, Y. (2000) “Current Wealth, Housing Purchase, and Private Housing Loan Demand in Japan,” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics volume, 21, 65–86.Moriizumi, Y. (2003) “Targeted Saving by Renters for Housing Purchase in Japan,” Journal of Urban Economics, 53(3), 494–509.Moriizumi, Y. and Naoi, M. (2011) “Unemployment Risk and the Timing of Homeownership in Japan,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 41(3), 227-235.Moriizumi, Y. and Naoi, M. (2012), “Unemployment risk, homeownership and housing wealth; lessons from the bubble aftermath in Japan”, in Jones, C. , White, M. and Dunse, N. (Eds), Challenges of the Housing Economy: An International Perspective (pp. 58-89), Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford.Nagayasu, J. and Inakura, N. (2009) “PPP: Further Evidence from Japanese Municipal Data,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 18, 419-427.Oreopoulos, P., Wachter, T. V. and Heisz, A. (2012) “The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(1), 1-29.Robst, J., Deitz, R., McGoldrick, K. (1999) “Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 29, 219–229.Sodini, P., Nieuwerburgh, S. Van, Vestman, R. and Lilienfeld-Toal, U. von. (2016) “Identifying the benefits from home ownership: A swedish experiment,” Available at SSRN 2785741.Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974) “Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases,” Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.Tachibanaki, T. (1994) “Housing and Saving in Japan, in: Y. Noguchi & N. Poterbaj (Eds)”, Housing Markets in United States and Japan (Chicago, University of Chicago Press) .Yukutake, N. and Moriizumi, Y. (2018) “Credit Constraints and the Delay of Homeownership by Young Households in Japan,” International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 13(1), 56–76. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000805 en_US
