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題名 從消費支出檢視房屋財富效果
Tests of the Housing Wealth Effect from Consumption Expenditure
作者 林俞君
Lin, Yu-Chun
貢獻者 陳明吉
林俞君
Lin, Yu-Chun
關鍵詞 房屋財富
財富效果
借貸限制
炫耀性消費
Wealth Effect
Housing Wealth
Credit Constrain
Conspicuous Consumption
日期 2020
上傳時間 3-Aug-2020 17:33:45 (UTC+8)
摘要 房屋資產屬於財富的一種，家庭會透過持有房屋作為自身的財富。而家戶所持有的財富會影響其消費決策，過去許多研究多探討房價的變動對不同地區及人口特徵的消費支出之關係。由於台灣擁屋率高，房屋資產占台灣家戶財富之比例亦高，因此本研究主要探討台灣之地區與全國房價的變動是否會帶來房屋財富效果，進而影響家庭消費決策，以及地區房價變動是否會對消費的變動產生地區間的差異性。本文針對台北市、新北市、台中市和高雄市等四大都會區房價與全國房價變動，對不同類型的消費支出進行迴歸實證，使用主計處調查之家庭收支調查資料將消費分為9種不同類型的消費支出，研究年份為1993至2018年。實證發現，在地區房價增加下，台中高雄地區對於大部分類型之消費支出具有正的財富效果、雙北地區則呈現負的財富效果，且雙北地區財富效果顯著低於台中高雄地區，應證地區間的財富效果有所差異。另外，地區的房價變動會使家戶選擇消費於實體能見度高的消費支出，說明房屋的財富效果，會使家庭消費於能見度高且實體可見的消費如衣著服飾，以顯示自身的社經地位。
Housing is regard as a kind of wealth, and households will hold their houses as their own wealth. In addition, the wealth held by households will affect their consumption decisions. The prior literatures have focused on the relationship between changes in housing prices and the consumption expenditures of different regions and cohorts. Taiwan’s home ownership rate is high, and the proportion of housing assets in Taiwan’s household wealth is also high. Therefore, my study mainly discusses whether regionally and nationally changes in housing prices in Taiwan will create housing wealth effects, which will subsequently affect household consumption decisions.
In this thesis, we examine the relationship between the changes in housing prices of four metropolitan areas (Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung) and different types of consumption expenditures. We investigate the relationship between changes in national housing prices and different types of consumption expenditures as well. We use Taiwanese survey of family income and expenditure from Taiwan Accounting and Statistics from 1993 to 2018. We find that under the increase in regional housing prices, most types of consumption expenditures in Taichung and Kaohsiung has a positive wealth effect, while the Taipei and New Taipei present a negative wealth effect, and the wealth effect of the Taipei and New Taipei are significantly lower than that of the Taichung and Kaohsiung. In addition, changes in regional housing prices will cause households to choose to spend on high-visibility consumer spending, indicating that the wealth effect on housing asset will allow households to spend on high-visibility and entity-visible consumption such as clothing to show their social and economic status.
參考文獻 陳南光、王泓仁(2011). “資產價格變動對民間消費支出影響效果之研究”, 中央銀行季刊, 33(1)。
彭建文、蔡怡純(2012). “住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係─ 追蹤資料共整合分析應用”, 住宅學報, 21(2)。
Aladangady, A. (2017). “Housing Wealth and Consumption: Evidence from Geographically-Linked Microdata”, American Economic Review, 107(11), 3415-46.
Aoki, K., Proudman, J., & Vlieghe, G. W. (2002). “Houses as Collateral: Has the Link Between House Prices and Consumption in The UK Changed?”, Economic Policy Review, 8(1).
Aron, J., Duca, J. V., Muellbauer, J., Murata, K., & Murphy, A. (2012). “Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence from Japan, The UK, And The US.”, Review of Income and Wealth, 58(3), 397-423.
Attanasio, O. P., Blow, L., Hamilton, R., & Leicester, A. (2009). “Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations”, Economica, 76(301), 20-50.
Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., & Painter, G. (2009). “Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, And Consumption: New Evidence from Micro Data”, Regional Science And Urban Economics, 39(1), 79-89.
Browning, M., Gørtz, M., & Leth‐Petersen, S. (2013). “Housing Wealth and Consumption: A Micro Panel Study”, The Economic Journal, 123(568), 401-428.
Buiter, W. H. (2008). “Housing Wealth Isn`t Wealth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. W14204.
Calomiris, C., Longhofer, S. D., & Miles, W. (2009). “The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. W15075.
Campbell, J. Y., & Mankiw, N. G. (1990). “Permanent Income, Current Income, And Consumption”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(3), 265-279.
Campbell, J. Y., & Cocco, J. F. (2007). “How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence from Micro Data”, Journal of monetary Economics, 54(3), 591-621.
Carroll, C. D. (2004). “Housing Wealth and Consumption Expenditure”, Academic Consultants Meeting of Federal Reserve Board.
Carroll, C. D., Otsuka, M., & Slacalek, J. (2011). “How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(1), 55-79.
Chamon, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2010). “Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), 93-130.
Charles, K. K., Hurst, E., & Roussanov. (2009). “Conspicuous Consumption and Race”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(2), 425-467.
Cristini, A., & Sevilla, A. (2014). “Do House Prices Affect Consumption? A Re‐Assessment of The Wealth Hypothesis”, Economica, 81(324), 601-625.
Della Valle, Philip A., & Oguchi. (1976). “Distribution, The Aggregate Consumption Function, And the Level of Economic Development: Some Cross-Country Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), 1325-1334.
Flavin, M. A. (1981). “The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations About Future Income”, Journal of Political Economy, 89(5), 974-1009.
Giuliodori, M. (2005). “The Role of House Prices in The Monetary Transmission Mechanism Across European Countries”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 52(4), 519-543.
Hall, R. E. (1978). “Stochastic Implications of The Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971-987.
Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 1251-1271.
Heffetz, O. (2011). “A Test of Conspicuous Consumption: Visibility and Income Elasticities”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(4), 1101-1117.
Iacoviello, M., (2004). Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: A Structural Econometric Analysis. Journal of Housing Economics, 13(4), 305-321.
Kaplan, G., Violante, G. L., & Weidner, J. (2014). “The Wealthy Hand-to-mouth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w20073.
Lehnert, A. (2004). “Housing, Consumption, and Credit Constraints”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper, 2004-63
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
Li, W., Liu, H., Yang, F., & Yao, R. (2016). “Housing Over Time and Over the Life Cycle: A Structural Estimation”, International Economic Review, 57(4), 1237-1260.
Lustig, H., & Van Nieuwerburgh, S. (2010). “How Much Does Household Collateral Constrain Regional Risk Sharing?”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 13(2), 265-294.
Mian, A., Rao, K., & Sufi, A. (2013). “Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, And the Economic Slump”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(4), 1687-1726.
Modigliani, F., & Ando, A. K. (1957). “Tests of The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Savings: Comments and Suggestions 1”, Bulletin of The Oxford University Institute of Economics & Statistics, 19(2), 99-124.
Muellbauer, J.N., Murphy, A. (1997). “Booms and Busts in The UK Housing Market”, The Economic Journal, 107, 1701-1727.
Ortalo-Magne, F., & Rady, S. (2006). “Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints”, The Review of Economic Studies, 73(2), 459-485.
Park, D., & Rhee, C. (2005). “Saving, Growth, And Demographic Change in Korea”, Journal of The Japanese And International Economies, 19(3), 394-413.
Phang, S. Y. (2004). “House Prices and Aggregate Consumption: Do They Move Together? Evidence from Singapore”, Journal of Housing Economics, 13(2), 101-119.
Sinai, T., & Souleles, N. S. (2005). “Owner-Occupied Housing as A Hedge Against Rent Risk”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(2), 763-789.
Waxman, A., Liang, Y., Li, S., Barwick, P. J., & Zhao, M. (2019). “Tightening Belts to Buy A Home: Consumption Responses to Rising Housing Prices in Urban China”, Journal of Urban Economics, 103190.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
107357013
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107357013
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳明吉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林俞君zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Yu-Chunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 林俞君zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Yu-Chunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2020en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Aug-2020 17:33:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Aug-2020 17:33:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Aug-2020 17:33:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107357013en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/130968-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 107357013zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 房屋資產屬於財富的一種，家庭會透過持有房屋作為自身的財富。而家戶所持有的財富會影響其消費決策，過去許多研究多探討房價的變動對不同地區及人口特徵的消費支出之關係。由於台灣擁屋率高，房屋資產占台灣家戶財富之比例亦高，因此本研究主要探討台灣之地區與全國房價的變動是否會帶來房屋財富效果，進而影響家庭消費決策，以及地區房價變動是否會對消費的變動產生地區間的差異性。本文針對台北市、新北市、台中市和高雄市等四大都會區房價與全國房價變動，對不同類型的消費支出進行迴歸實證，使用主計處調查之家庭收支調查資料將消費分為9種不同類型的消費支出，研究年份為1993至2018年。實證發現，在地區房價增加下，台中高雄地區對於大部分類型之消費支出具有正的財富效果、雙北地區則呈現負的財富效果，且雙北地區財富效果顯著低於台中高雄地區，應證地區間的財富效果有所差異。另外，地區的房價變動會使家戶選擇消費於實體能見度高的消費支出，說明房屋的財富效果，會使家庭消費於能見度高且實體可見的消費如衣著服飾，以顯示自身的社經地位。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Housing is regard as a kind of wealth, and households will hold their houses as their own wealth. In addition, the wealth held by households will affect their consumption decisions. The prior literatures have focused on the relationship between changes in housing prices and the consumption expenditures of different regions and cohorts. Taiwan’s home ownership rate is high, and the proportion of housing assets in Taiwan’s household wealth is also high. Therefore, my study mainly discusses whether regionally and nationally changes in housing prices in Taiwan will create housing wealth effects, which will subsequently affect household consumption decisions.
In this thesis, we examine the relationship between the changes in housing prices of four metropolitan areas (Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung) and different types of consumption expenditures. We investigate the relationship between changes in national housing prices and different types of consumption expenditures as well. We use Taiwanese survey of family income and expenditure from Taiwan Accounting and Statistics from 1993 to 2018. We find that under the increase in regional housing prices, most types of consumption expenditures in Taichung and Kaohsiung has a positive wealth effect, while the Taipei and New Taipei present a negative wealth effect, and the wealth effect of the Taipei and New Taipei are significantly lower than that of the Taichung and Kaohsiung. In addition, changes in regional housing prices will cause households to choose to spend on high-visibility consumer spending, indicating that the wealth effect on housing asset will allow households to spend on high-visibility and entity-visible consumption such as clothing to show their social and economic status.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究問題與目的 5
第三節 研究流程 6
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 房價變動下的財富效果假說 7
第二節 房價變動下的流動性限制 10
第三章 研究設計 11
第一節 假說建立 11
第二節 研究模型 13
第三節 資料檢驗與研究方法 17
第四節 變數來源與說明 19
第四章 實證結果 24
第一節 樣本資料分析 24
第二節 內生性檢定 34
第三節 可預期的房價對不同消費支出的影響 36
第四節 不可預期的房價對不同消費支出之影響 52
第五章 結論與建議 60
第一節 結論 60
第二節 建議與限制 62
參考文獻 63		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 3003369 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107357013en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房屋財富zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財富效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 借貸限制zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 炫耀性消費zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Wealth Effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing Wealthen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Credit Constrainen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Conspicuous Consumptionen_US
dc.title (題名) 從消費支出檢視房屋財富效果zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Tests of the Housing Wealth Effect from Consumption Expenditureen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳南光、王泓仁(2011). “資產價格變動對民間消費支出影響效果之研究”, 中央銀行季刊, 33(1)。
彭建文、蔡怡純(2012). “住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係─ 追蹤資料共整合分析應用”, 住宅學報, 21(2)。
Aladangady, A. (2017). “Housing Wealth and Consumption: Evidence from Geographically-Linked Microdata”, American Economic Review, 107(11), 3415-46.
Aoki, K., Proudman, J., & Vlieghe, G. W. (2002). “Houses as Collateral: Has the Link Between House Prices and Consumption in The UK Changed?”, Economic Policy Review, 8(1).
Aron, J., Duca, J. V., Muellbauer, J., Murata, K., & Murphy, A. (2012). “Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence from Japan, The UK, And The US.”, Review of Income and Wealth, 58(3), 397-423.
Attanasio, O. P., Blow, L., Hamilton, R., & Leicester, A. (2009). “Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations”, Economica, 76(301), 20-50.
Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., & Painter, G. (2009). “Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, And Consumption: New Evidence from Micro Data”, Regional Science And Urban Economics, 39(1), 79-89.
Browning, M., Gørtz, M., & Leth‐Petersen, S. (2013). “Housing Wealth and Consumption: A Micro Panel Study”, The Economic Journal, 123(568), 401-428.
Buiter, W. H. (2008). “Housing Wealth Isn`t Wealth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. W14204.
Calomiris, C., Longhofer, S. D., & Miles, W. (2009). “The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. W15075.
Campbell, J. Y., & Mankiw, N. G. (1990). “Permanent Income, Current Income, And Consumption”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(3), 265-279.
Campbell, J. Y., & Cocco, J. F. (2007). “How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence from Micro Data”, Journal of monetary Economics, 54(3), 591-621.
Carroll, C. D. (2004). “Housing Wealth and Consumption Expenditure”, Academic Consultants Meeting of Federal Reserve Board.
Carroll, C. D., Otsuka, M., & Slacalek, J. (2011). “How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(1), 55-79.
Chamon, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2010). “Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), 93-130.
Charles, K. K., Hurst, E., & Roussanov. (2009). “Conspicuous Consumption and Race”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(2), 425-467.
Cristini, A., & Sevilla, A. (2014). “Do House Prices Affect Consumption? A Re‐Assessment of The Wealth Hypothesis”, Economica, 81(324), 601-625.
Della Valle, Philip A., & Oguchi. (1976). “Distribution, The Aggregate Consumption Function, And the Level of Economic Development: Some Cross-Country Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), 1325-1334.
Flavin, M. A. (1981). “The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations About Future Income”, Journal of Political Economy, 89(5), 974-1009.
Giuliodori, M. (2005). “The Role of House Prices in The Monetary Transmission Mechanism Across European Countries”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 52(4), 519-543.
Hall, R. E. (1978). “Stochastic Implications of The Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971-987.
Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 1251-1271.
Heffetz, O. (2011). “A Test of Conspicuous Consumption: Visibility and Income Elasticities”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(4), 1101-1117.
Iacoviello, M., (2004). Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: A Structural Econometric Analysis. Journal of Housing Economics, 13(4), 305-321.
Kaplan, G., Violante, G. L., & Weidner, J. (2014). “The Wealthy Hand-to-mouth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w20073.
Lehnert, A. (2004). “Housing, Consumption, and Credit Constraints”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper, 2004-63
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
Li, W., Liu, H., Yang, F., & Yao, R. (2016). “Housing Over Time and Over the Life Cycle: A Structural Estimation”, International Economic Review, 57(4), 1237-1260.
Lustig, H., & Van Nieuwerburgh, S. (2010). “How Much Does Household Collateral Constrain Regional Risk Sharing?”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 13(2), 265-294.
Mian, A., Rao, K., & Sufi, A. (2013). “Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, And the Economic Slump”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(4), 1687-1726.
Modigliani, F., & Ando, A. K. (1957). “Tests of The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Savings: Comments and Suggestions 1”, Bulletin of The Oxford University Institute of Economics & Statistics, 19(2), 99-124.
Muellbauer, J.N., Murphy, A. (1997). “Booms and Busts in The UK Housing Market”, The Economic Journal, 107, 1701-1727.
Ortalo-Magne, F., & Rady, S. (2006). “Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints”, The Review of Economic Studies, 73(2), 459-485.
Park, D., & Rhee, C. (2005). “Saving, Growth, And Demographic Change in Korea”, Journal of The Japanese And International Economies, 19(3), 394-413.
Phang, S. Y. (2004). “House Prices and Aggregate Consumption: Do They Move Together? Evidence from Singapore”, Journal of Housing Economics, 13(2), 101-119.
Sinai, T., & Souleles, N. S. (2005). “Owner-Occupied Housing as A Hedge Against Rent Risk”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(2), 763-789.
Waxman, A., Liang, Y., Li, S., Barwick, P. J., & Zhao, M. (2019). “Tightening Belts to Buy A Home: Consumption Responses to Rising Housing Prices in Urban China”, Journal of Urban Economics, 103190.		zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000706en_US