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題名 政變對經濟表現的影響:1958年泰國政變和1966年印尼政變的合成控制證據
The effect of coup d’etat on economic performances: Synthetic control evidence from the 1958 Thai coup and the 1966 Indonesian coup作者 林金源
Siripattanachok, Akrawat貢獻者 黃柏鈞
Huang, Po-Chun
林金源
Akrawat Siripattanachok關鍵詞 synthetic control
coup d’etat
Thai politics
Indonesian politics
economic growth日期 2020 上傳時間 3-Aug-2020 18:48:46 (UTC+8) 摘要 This thesis aims to assess economic performance after Sarit’s coup in 1958 and Suharto’s coup in 1966 by using the synthetic control method. The synthetic control extrapolates the trajectory of Thailand’s and Indonesia’s synthetic post-coup log GDP per capita with a weighted combination selected from the donor pool. The donor pool includes countries designated as ‘developing’ in the World Economic Survey 1963. Those developing countries must not have experienced a coup at least five years before and after Sarit’s and Suharto’s coups. The result found that the GDP per capita post-Sarit’s and post-Suharto coups increased significantly compared to the synthetic figures. In addition, this thesis also provides a theoretical explanation of the developmental state, explaining the driving forces of high economic growth in East Asia. Interestingly, Thailand and Indonesia also followed this pattern to thrive for higher economic growth. From the economic perspective, both governments have established departments to take care of the economy on the macro level, and to draft economic strategies. The post-coup government also initiated the Board of Investment in an effort to promote a friendly environment for foreign investors. In contrast, however, political suppression was widespread due to the governments’ control of labor unions that called for welfare and improved standards of living. This situation benefited capitalists, making it even easier for them to accumulate capital. 參考文獻 Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 113-132.Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method. 59(2), 495-510.Amir, S. (2017). The Technological State in Indonesia: The Co-constitution of High Technology and Authoritarian Politics. Routledge.Ammar, S., & Suthad, S. (1989). Trade, Exchange Rate, and Agricultural Pricing Policies in Thailand. Washington, D C: The World Bank.Ang, C. (2018). Southeast Asia`s Cold War: An interpretive History. Umiversity of Hawai`i Press.Apichat, S. (2002). The Rise and Fall of the Technocrats: The Unholy Trinity of Technocrats, Ruling Elites and Private Bankers and the Genesis of the 1997 Economic Crisis. PhD thesis. University of Wales, Swansea.Baker, D. (2006). The political economy of fascism: Myth or reality, or myth and reality? New Political Economy, 11(2), 227-250.Barbieri, K., & Omar M. G. Omar Keshk. (2016). Correlates of War Project Trade Data Set Codebook. Version 4.0. Retrieved from http://correlatesofwar.orgBatson, B. A. (1974). The fall of the Phibun Government, 1944. Journal of the Siam Society, 62(2), 89-120.Boden, R. (2008). Cold War Economics: Soviet Aid to Indonesia. Journal of Cold War Studies, 10(3), 110-128.Caldentey, E. P. (2008). The Concept and Evolution of the Developmental State. International Journal of Political Economy, 37(3), 27-53.Chalmers, I., & Hadiz, V. R. (1997). The Politics of Economic Development in Indonesia. New York: Routledge.Fosu, A. K. (2002). Political Instability and Economic Growth: Implications of Coup Events in Sub-Saharan Africa. The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 61(1), 329-348.Galiani, S., & Quistorff, B. (2017). The synth runner package: Utilities to automate synthetic control estimation using synth. The Stata Journal, 17(4), 834–849.Golay, F. H., Anspach, R., Pfanner, M., & Ayal, E. B. (1969). Underdevelopment and Economic Nationalism in Southeast Asia. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press.Haggard, S. (2018). Developmental States. Cambridge University Press.Kojima, K. (2000). The “flying geese” model of Asian economic development: origin, theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications. Journal of Asian Economics, 11(4), 375–401.MacKenzie, R., Ross, H., & Lee, K. (2017). ‘Preparing ourselves to become an international organization’: Thailand Tobacco Monopoly’s regional and global strategies. Global Public Health, 12(3), 351-366.Maddison, A. (2010). Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1-2008 AD. Retrieved from http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htmMarshall, M. G., Gurr, T. R., & Jaggers, K. (2018). Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2017: Dataset Users’ Manual. Center for Systemic Peace.Masuhara, A. (2015). The End of Personal Rule in Indonesia: Golkar and the Transformation of the Soeharto Regime. Kyoto University Press.Meyersson, E. (2016). "Political man on horseback: coups and development.". Stockholm Institute for Transition Economics (SITE).Mieno, F. (2013). Aid as Handmaiden for the Development of Institutions: A New Comparative Perspective. (M. Nissanke, & Y. Shimomura, Eds.) New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Nanbara, M. (1998). Economic plans and the evolution of economic nationalism in Siam in the 1930s. PhD thesis. SOAS University of London.Nattapon, J. (n.d.). the 1957 coup (in Thai). Retrieved December 14, 2019, from King Prajadhipok`s Institute: http://wiki.kpi.ac.th/index.php?title=%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%90%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%AB%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3_%E0%B8%9E.%E0%B8%A8._25000NESDB. (1961). 1th National Economic and Social Development Plan (1961-1966) .O`Kane, R. H. (1981). A Probabilistic Approach to the Causes of Coups d`Etat. British Journal of Political Science, 11(3), 287-308.O`Kane, R. H. (1983). Towards an Examination of the General Causes of Coups d`Etat. European Journal of Political Research, 11(1), 27-44.Phimmasone, R. M. (2012). Thailand’s Second Triumvirate: Sarit Thanarat and the military, King Bhumibol Adulyadej and the monarchy and the United States. 1957-1963. Master`s thesis. University of Washington.Porphant , O. (2006). Karn Tor SU Kong Thun Thai 2: Karn Muang, Wattanatham Peua Kham Yu Rod [The Fighting of Thai capitals 2: Politics, Culture for surviving]. (P. Pasuk, Ed.) Bangkok: Matichon Public Company Limited.Rasiah, R., McFarlane, B., & Kuruvilla, S. (2015). Globalization, Industrialization and Labour Markets in East and South Asia. Routledge.Scott, P. D. (1985). The United States and the Overthrow of Sukarno, 1965-1967. Pacific Affairs, 58(2), 239-264.Singh, J. N., & Ovadia, J. S. (2018). The theory and practice of building developmental states in the Global South. Third World Quarterly, 39(6), 1033-1055.Sudsamorn, S. (1983). An analysis of operational results of provincial trading companies between B.E.2518-2522 (in Thai). MA thesis. Chulalongkorn University .Tannenbaum, E. R. (1969). The Goals of Italian Fascism. The American Historical Review, 74(4), 1183-1204.Wells, A. (1974). The Coup d`Etat in Theory and Practice: Independent Black Africa in the 1960s`. American Journal of Sociology, 79(4), 871-887 .Wie, T. K. (2006). Policies for Private Sector Development in Indonesia. ADB Institute Discussion Paper No. 46.Yu, S. (2014). Leaders, Regimes, and Political Instability. Groningen: University of Groningen, SOM research school . 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
106266014資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106266014 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃柏鈞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Po-Chun en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林金源 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Akrawat Siripattanachok en_US dc.creator (作者) 林金源 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Siripattanachok, Akrawat en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Aug-2020 18:48:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Aug-2020 18:48:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Aug-2020 18:48:46 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106266014 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131383 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106266014 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis aims to assess economic performance after Sarit’s coup in 1958 and Suharto’s coup in 1966 by using the synthetic control method. The synthetic control extrapolates the trajectory of Thailand’s and Indonesia’s synthetic post-coup log GDP per capita with a weighted combination selected from the donor pool. The donor pool includes countries designated as ‘developing’ in the World Economic Survey 1963. Those developing countries must not have experienced a coup at least five years before and after Sarit’s and Suharto’s coups. The result found that the GDP per capita post-Sarit’s and post-Suharto coups increased significantly compared to the synthetic figures. In addition, this thesis also provides a theoretical explanation of the developmental state, explaining the driving forces of high economic growth in East Asia. Interestingly, Thailand and Indonesia also followed this pattern to thrive for higher economic growth. From the economic perspective, both governments have established departments to take care of the economy on the macro level, and to draft economic strategies. The post-coup government also initiated the Board of Investment in an effort to promote a friendly environment for foreign investors. In contrast, however, political suppression was widespread due to the governments’ control of labor unions that called for welfare and improved standards of living. This situation benefited capitalists, making it even easier for them to accumulate capital. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 12 Literature Review 42.1 Regression analysis: The pervasive and familiar method 42.2 The synthetic control: The frontier of comparative studies 72.3 The Developmental State 82.3.1 Property Rights Enforcement 82.3.2 Political Institution 92.3.3 The Business-Government Nexus 92.3.4 The Labor Controls 93 Historical Background 104 The Political Situation 124.1 Indonesia 124.2 Thailand 134.2.1 Thailand before the 1958 coup 134.2.2 Why the 1958 Sarit coup is significant and unique 155 Method 175.1 Placebo study 185.2 Inference 185.3 Data Collection 195.3.1 Dependent variable and Independent variables 206 Result 216.1 The 1958 Thai coup 216.2 The 1965 Indonesian coup 227 The economic outlook before the coup d’état 238 Post-Coup Institutional Change 268.1 Thrive for More Liberal Economy 268.1.1 The triumph of technocracy 268.1.2 The nexus of the elites’ network 288.1.3 The promotion of investment 308.1.4 Controlled politics 329 Conclusion 3310 Appendices 3611 Timeline 5712 References 58 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1482530 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106266014 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) synthetic control en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) coup d’etat en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Thai politics en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Indonesian politics en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) economic growth en_US dc.title (題名) 政變對經濟表現的影響:1958年泰國政變和1966年印尼政變的合成控制證據 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The effect of coup d’etat on economic performances: Synthetic control evidence from the 1958 Thai coup and the 1966 Indonesian coup en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 113-132.Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method. 59(2), 495-510.Amir, S. (2017). The Technological State in Indonesia: The Co-constitution of High Technology and Authoritarian Politics. Routledge.Ammar, S., & Suthad, S. (1989). Trade, Exchange Rate, and Agricultural Pricing Policies in Thailand. Washington, D C: The World Bank.Ang, C. (2018). Southeast Asia`s Cold War: An interpretive History. Umiversity of Hawai`i Press.Apichat, S. (2002). The Rise and Fall of the Technocrats: The Unholy Trinity of Technocrats, Ruling Elites and Private Bankers and the Genesis of the 1997 Economic Crisis. PhD thesis. University of Wales, Swansea.Baker, D. (2006). The political economy of fascism: Myth or reality, or myth and reality? New Political Economy, 11(2), 227-250.Barbieri, K., & Omar M. G. Omar Keshk. (2016). Correlates of War Project Trade Data Set Codebook. Version 4.0. Retrieved from http://correlatesofwar.orgBatson, B. A. (1974). The fall of the Phibun Government, 1944. Journal of the Siam Society, 62(2), 89-120.Boden, R. (2008). Cold War Economics: Soviet Aid to Indonesia. Journal of Cold War Studies, 10(3), 110-128.Caldentey, E. P. (2008). The Concept and Evolution of the Developmental State. International Journal of Political Economy, 37(3), 27-53.Chalmers, I., & Hadiz, V. R. (1997). The Politics of Economic Development in Indonesia. New York: Routledge.Fosu, A. K. (2002). Political Instability and Economic Growth: Implications of Coup Events in Sub-Saharan Africa. The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 61(1), 329-348.Galiani, S., & Quistorff, B. (2017). The synth runner package: Utilities to automate synthetic control estimation using synth. The Stata Journal, 17(4), 834–849.Golay, F. H., Anspach, R., Pfanner, M., & Ayal, E. B. (1969). Underdevelopment and Economic Nationalism in Southeast Asia. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press.Haggard, S. (2018). Developmental States. Cambridge University Press.Kojima, K. (2000). The “flying geese” model of Asian economic development: origin, theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications. Journal of Asian Economics, 11(4), 375–401.MacKenzie, R., Ross, H., & Lee, K. (2017). ‘Preparing ourselves to become an international organization’: Thailand Tobacco Monopoly’s regional and global strategies. Global Public Health, 12(3), 351-366.Maddison, A. (2010). Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1-2008 AD. Retrieved from http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htmMarshall, M. G., Gurr, T. R., & Jaggers, K. (2018). Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2017: Dataset Users’ Manual. Center for Systemic Peace.Masuhara, A. (2015). The End of Personal Rule in Indonesia: Golkar and the Transformation of the Soeharto Regime. Kyoto University Press.Meyersson, E. (2016). "Political man on horseback: coups and development.". Stockholm Institute for Transition Economics (SITE).Mieno, F. (2013). Aid as Handmaiden for the Development of Institutions: A New Comparative Perspective. (M. Nissanke, & Y. Shimomura, Eds.) New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Nanbara, M. (1998). Economic plans and the evolution of economic nationalism in Siam in the 1930s. PhD thesis. SOAS University of London.Nattapon, J. (n.d.). the 1957 coup (in Thai). Retrieved December 14, 2019, from King Prajadhipok`s Institute: http://wiki.kpi.ac.th/index.php?title=%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%90%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%AB%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3_%E0%B8%9E.%E0%B8%A8._25000NESDB. (1961). 1th National Economic and Social Development Plan (1961-1966) .O`Kane, R. H. (1981). A Probabilistic Approach to the Causes of Coups d`Etat. British Journal of Political Science, 11(3), 287-308.O`Kane, R. H. (1983). Towards an Examination of the General Causes of Coups d`Etat. European Journal of Political Research, 11(1), 27-44.Phimmasone, R. M. (2012). Thailand’s Second Triumvirate: Sarit Thanarat and the military, King Bhumibol Adulyadej and the monarchy and the United States. 1957-1963. Master`s thesis. University of Washington.Porphant , O. (2006). Karn Tor SU Kong Thun Thai 2: Karn Muang, Wattanatham Peua Kham Yu Rod [The Fighting of Thai capitals 2: Politics, Culture for surviving]. (P. Pasuk, Ed.) Bangkok: Matichon Public Company Limited.Rasiah, R., McFarlane, B., & Kuruvilla, S. (2015). Globalization, Industrialization and Labour Markets in East and South Asia. Routledge.Scott, P. D. (1985). The United States and the Overthrow of Sukarno, 1965-1967. Pacific Affairs, 58(2), 239-264.Singh, J. N., & Ovadia, J. S. (2018). The theory and practice of building developmental states in the Global South. Third World Quarterly, 39(6), 1033-1055.Sudsamorn, S. (1983). An analysis of operational results of provincial trading companies between B.E.2518-2522 (in Thai). MA thesis. Chulalongkorn University .Tannenbaum, E. R. (1969). The Goals of Italian Fascism. The American Historical Review, 74(4), 1183-1204.Wells, A. (1974). The Coup d`Etat in Theory and Practice: Independent Black Africa in the 1960s`. American Journal of Sociology, 79(4), 871-887 .Wie, T. K. (2006). Policies for Private Sector Development in Indonesia. ADB Institute Discussion Paper No. 46.Yu, S. (2014). Leaders, Regimes, and Political Instability. Groningen: University of Groningen, SOM research school . zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000777 en_US