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題名 盈餘串、經理人過度自信與分析師跟隨
無
作者 蕭琬琳
貢獻者 林禹銘
蕭琬琳
關鍵詞 盈餘串
經理人過度自信
分析師跟隨
Earnings strings
Analyst following
CEO overconfidence
日期 2020
上傳時間 2-Sep-2020 11:41:16 (UTC+8)
摘要 盈餘串的形成，為公司經營成果的鮮明特徵，而分析師身為企業信息中介者，有助於提升資本市場整體效率，角色不可或缺；本文首先探討盈餘串與分析師跟隨行為之關聯性。此外，過度自信為經理人普遍存在的個人特質，對企業影響甚鉅，本文繼而探討經理人過度自信與盈餘串之間的關聯，以及經理人過度自信是否會影響分析師跟隨意願。本文以北美地區2004年至2018年上市櫃公司為樣本，實證結果發現，具有盈餘串之公司分析師跟隨數目較多；而經理人之過度自信與盈餘串形成及分析師跟隨數目，皆呈正向關係。本文除可作為盈餘串、分析師跟隨，以及經理人過度自信相關文獻之補充，而以上重要議題實證結果，在實務上亦具有參考價值。
The formation of earnings strings is a distinctive characteristic for a firm. Besides, analyst serves as an information intermediary role in capital market. This study first focuses on these two important issues and examines the relation between earnings strings and analyst followings. Additionally, overconfidence is a common personal characteristic among CEOs. This study then investigates the association between CEO overconfidence and earnings string, and whether CEO overconfidence will affect analyst following. Based on the samples of US-listed companies from 2004 to 2018, this study shows that enterprises with earnings strings or an overconfident CEO have more analyst followings. Moreover, CEO overconfidence has positive effect on earnings strings. The empirical results in this study could supplement the relevant literatures and provide the reference for the field of practices.
參考文獻 中文部分
王韶濱與許明曄，2011，資訊透明度與財務分析師預測行為，當代會計，第12
卷(2期)：115-148。
游智賢與洪碧霞，2006，分析師之盈餘預測-公司特性之偏好與盈餘預測修正之
市場反應，證券市場發展季刊，第18卷(2期)：41-77。
吳武清與萬嘉瀅，2018，分析師跟蹤和盈餘管理：基於跟蹤強度新指標的研究，
數理統計與管理，第37卷(1期) : 83-85。
金慶平、周彥妤與李佳玲，2015，機構投資者持股與分析師跟隨對企業股權價
值評估之攸關性，當代會計，第16卷(2期)：175-209。
代昀昊，2015，分析師跟蹤，監督效應與企業行為研究，華中科技大學博士論文。
豐竹菊，2012，我國上市公司高管人員過度自信對公司業績的影響研究，吉林大
學碩士學位論文。

英文部分
Ahmed, A. S., and Duellman, S. (2013). Managerial overconfidence and accounting conservatism. Journal of Accounting Research, 51(1), 1-30.
Alford, A. W., and Berger, P. G. (1999). A simultaneous equations analysis of forecast accuracy, analyst following, and trading volume. Journal of Accounting, Auditing
and Finance, 14(3), 219-240.
Balashov, V. S., and DeVides, Z. B. (2019). Can analysts predict breaks in earnings strings?. Review of Accounting and Finance.
Balashov, V. S., and Mailibayeva, Z. (2019). Are Analysts Overly Optimistic Around Earnings Strings? SSRN Electronic Journal.
Barth, M. E., and Kallapur, S. JA Elliot and MA Finn (1999),‘Market Rewards Associated with Patterns of Increasing Earnings’. Journal of Accounting Research, 37(3), 87-4.
Barth, M. E., Kasznik, R., and McNichols, M. F. (2001). Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research, 39(1), 1-34.
Bartov, E., Givoly, D., and Hayn, C. (2002). The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 33(2), 173–204.
Beatty, A. L., Ke, B., and Petroni, K. R. (2002). Earnings management to avoid earnings declines across publicly and privately held banks. The Accounting Review, 77(3), 547-570.
Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., and Harvey, C. R. (2007). Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies (No. w13711). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., and Harvey, C. R. (2010). Managerial miscalibration (No. w16215).
Bereskin, F. L., and Hsu, P. H. (2013, October). Bringing in changes: the effect of new CEOs on innovation. In Paris December 2011 Finance Meeting EUROFIDAI-AFFI.
Bhushan, R. (1989). Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11(2-3), 255-274.
Bushman, R. M., Piotroski, J. D., and Smith, A. J. (2005). Insider trading restrictions and analysts` incentives to follow firms. The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 35-66.
Chen, T., Harford, J., and Lin, C. (2015). Do analysts matter for governance? Evidence from natural experiments. Journal of Financial Economics, 115(2), 383-410.
Chintrakarn, P., Jiraporn, P., Kim, Y., and Kim, J. C. (2015). Does corporate governance quality affect analyst coverage? Evidence from the Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS). Applied Economics Letters, 22(4), 312-317.
Chung, K. H., and Jo, H. (1996). The impact of security analysts` monitoring and marketing functions on the market value of firms. Journal of Financial and Quantitative analysis, 31(4), 493-512.
Clinton, S. B., Pinello, A. S., and Skaife, H. A. (2014). The implications of ineffective internal control and SOX 404 reporting for financial analysts. Journal of
Accounting and Public Policy, 33(4), 303-327.
Coen, A., Desfleurs, A., L’Her, J. F., and Suret, J. M. (2005). Another look at factors explaining quality of financial analysts’ forecasts: Evidence from the Asian
emerging markets. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 15(4-5), 414-434.
Cooper, R. A., Day, T. E., and Lewis, C. M. (2001). Following the leader:: a study of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Financial Economics, 61(3),
383-416.
Das, S., R. Guo and H. Zhang, (2006), “Analysts’ Selective Coverage and Subsequent Performance of Newly Public Firms,” Journal of Finance, Vol.61, No.3, 1159-1185.
De Bondt, W. F., and Thaler, R. H. (1995). Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective. Handbooks in Operations Research and
Management Science, 9, 385-410.
Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., and Sweeney, A. P. (1996). Causes and consequences of earnings manipulation: An analysis of firms subject to enforcement actions by
the SEC. Contemporary Accounting Research, 13(1), 1-36.
Dyck, A., Morse, A., and Zingales, L. (2007). Who blows the whistle on corporate fraud? (No. w12882). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Fairchild, R. J. (2005). The effect of Managerial Overconfidence, asymmetric information, and moral hazard on capital structure decisions. Available at SSRN 711845.
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R. (1992). The cross‐section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
Fischer, P. E., and Stocken, P. C. (2010). Analyst information acquisition and communication. The Accounting Review, 85(6), 1985-2009.
Goel, A. M., and Thakor, A. V. (2008). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance. The Journal of Finance, 63(6), 2737-2784.
Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., and Rajgopal, S. (2005). The economic implications of corporate financial reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 40(1-3), 3-73.
Hackbarth, D. (2009). Determinants of corporate borrowing: A behavioral perspective. Journal of Corporate Finance, 15(4), 389-411.
Hambrick, D. C., and Mason, P. A. (1984). Upper echelons: The organization as a reflection of its top managers. Academy of Management Review, 9(2), 193-206.
Harry, D., DeAngelo, L., and Skinner, D. (1996). Reversal of fortune, dividend signaling and the disappearance of sustained earnings growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 40(3), 341-371.
Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 33-45.
Hirshleifer, D., Low, A., and Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?. The Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1457-1498.
Hong, H., Lim, T., and Stein, J. C. (2000). Bad news travels slowly: Size, analyst coverage, and the profitability of momentum strategies. The Journal of
Finance, 55(1), 265-295.
Hong, Y., Huseynov, F., and Zhang, W. (2014). Earnings management and analyst following: A simultaneous equations analysis. Financial Management, 43(2), 355-390.
Hribar, P., and Yang, H. (2016). CEO overconfidence and management forecasting. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33(1), 204-227.
Hsieh, T. S., Bedard, J. C., and Johnstone, K. M. (2014). CEO overconfidence and earnings management during shifting regulatory regimes. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 41(9-10), 1243-1268.
Jensen, M. C. (2005) ‘The agency costs of overvalued equity’, Financial Management, 34(1), pp. 5-19.
Kasznik, R., and McNichols, M. F. (2002). Does meeting earnings expectations matter? Evidence from analyst forecast revisions and share prices. Journal of Accounting Research, 40(3), 727-759.
Ke, B., Huddart, S., and Petroni, K. (2003). What insiders know about future earnings and how they use it: Evidence from insider trades. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 35(3), 315-346.
Ke, B., and Petroni, K. (2004). How informed are actively trading institutional investors? Evidence from their trading behavior before a break in a string of consecutive earnings increases. Journal of Accounting Research, 42(5), 895-927.
King, R., Pownall, G., and Waymire, G. (1990). Expectations adjustment via timely management forecasts: Review, synthesis, and suggestions for future research. Journal of Accounting Literature, 9(1), 113-144.
Kim, J. B., Wang, Z., and Zhang, L. (2016). CEO overconfidence and stock price crash risk. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33(4), 1720-1749.
Kruger, J. (1999). Lake Wobegon be gone! The" below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(2), 221.
Lakhal, F. (2007). Voluntary Disclosures and Financial Analysts` Behavior in France. Available at SSRN 921279.
Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311.
Lang, M. H., and Lundholm, R. J. (1996). Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. Accounting Review, 467-492.
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Lee, J. E. (2016). CEO overconfidence and the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 32(1), 81-100.
Malmendier, U., and Tate, G. (2005a). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2661-2700.
Malmendier, U., and Tate, G. (2005b). Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited. European Financial Management, 11(5), 649-659.
Malmendier, U., and Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market`s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1), 20-43.
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Myers, J. N., Myers, L. A., and Skinner, D. J. (2007). Earnings momentum and earnings management. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 22(2), 249-284.
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Sahut, J. M., Gharbi, S., and Gharbi, H. O. (2011). Stock volatility, institutional ownership and analyst coverage. Bankers, Markets and Investors, (110), 21-30.
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Schutte, M., and Unlu, E. (2009). Do security analysts reduce noise?. Financial Analysts Journal, 65(3), 40-54.
Shapira-Ettinger, K., and Shapira, R. A. (2008). The constructive value of overconfidence. Review of Law & Economics, 4(3), 751-778.
Shin, Y. C., and Wang, W. (2012). Discretionary accruals, insider trades, and the break of good earnings strings. The Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 18(2), 26.
Skala, D. (2008). Overconfidence in psychology and finance-an interdisciplinary literature review. Bank I kredyt, (4), 33-50.
Slothouber, E. I. J. S. (2010). The influence of CEO overconfidence on firm value.
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Wong, M. F., and Zhang, X. F. (2014). CEO optimism and analyst forecast bias. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 29(3), 367-392.
Yong, K. K. O. (2008). Earnings breaks and earnings management. Duke University.
Yu, F. F. (2008). Analyst coverage and earnings management. Journal of Financial Economics, 88(2), 245-271.
Zhang, Y., Perols, J., Robinson, D., and Smith, T. (2018). Earnings management strategies to maintain a string of meeting or beating analyst expectations. Advances in Accounting, 43, 46-55.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
107353030
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107353030
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林禹銘zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蕭琬琳zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 蕭琬琳zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2020en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2020 11:41:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Sep-2020 11:41:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2020 11:41:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107353030en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131467-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 107353030zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 盈餘串的形成，為公司經營成果的鮮明特徵，而分析師身為企業信息中介者，有助於提升資本市場整體效率，角色不可或缺；本文首先探討盈餘串與分析師跟隨行為之關聯性。此外，過度自信為經理人普遍存在的個人特質，對企業影響甚鉅，本文繼而探討經理人過度自信與盈餘串之間的關聯，以及經理人過度自信是否會影響分析師跟隨意願。本文以北美地區2004年至2018年上市櫃公司為樣本，實證結果發現，具有盈餘串之公司分析師跟隨數目較多；而經理人之過度自信與盈餘串形成及分析師跟隨數目，皆呈正向關係。本文除可作為盈餘串、分析師跟隨，以及經理人過度自信相關文獻之補充，而以上重要議題實證結果，在實務上亦具有參考價值。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The formation of earnings strings is a distinctive characteristic for a firm. Besides, analyst serves as an information intermediary role in capital market. This study first focuses on these two important issues and examines the relation between earnings strings and analyst followings. Additionally, overconfidence is a common personal characteristic among CEOs. This study then investigates the association between CEO overconfidence and earnings string, and whether CEO overconfidence will affect analyst following. Based on the samples of US-listed companies from 2004 to 2018, this study shows that enterprises with earnings strings or an overconfident CEO have more analyst followings. Moreover, CEO overconfidence has positive effect on earnings strings. The empirical results in this study could supplement the relevant literatures and provide the reference for the field of practices.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 壹、緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究架構 2
貳、文獻探討 4
第一節 分析師跟隨(ANALYST FOLLOWING) 4
第二節 盈餘串 (EARNINGS STRINGS) 5
第三節 過度自信(OVERCONFIDENCE) 6
參、假說發展 7
第一節 盈餘串與分析師跟隨 7
第二節 過度自信經理人與盈餘串 8
第三節 過度自信經理人與分析師跟隨 9
肆、研究設計 11
第一節 研究樣本與資料來源 11
第二節 研究變數定義 11
第三節 研究模型 14
伍、實證結果與分析 16
第一節 樣本分布 16
第二節 敘述性統計及相關係數 18
第三節 實證研究分析 22
第四節 額外測試 27
第五節 穩健性測試 29
陸、結論 32
參考文獻 34		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2362000 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107353030en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘串zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經理人過度自信zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師跟隨zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Earnings stringsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Analyst followingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CEO overconfidenceen_US
dc.title (題名) 盈餘串、經理人過度自信與分析師跟隨zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 無en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分
王韶濱與許明曄，2011，資訊透明度與財務分析師預測行為，當代會計，第12
卷(2期)：115-148。
游智賢與洪碧霞，2006，分析師之盈餘預測-公司特性之偏好與盈餘預測修正之
市場反應，證券市場發展季刊，第18卷(2期)：41-77。
吳武清與萬嘉瀅，2018，分析師跟蹤和盈餘管理：基於跟蹤強度新指標的研究，
數理統計與管理，第37卷(1期) : 83-85。
金慶平、周彥妤與李佳玲，2015，機構投資者持股與分析師跟隨對企業股權價
值評估之攸關性，當代會計，第16卷(2期)：175-209。
代昀昊，2015，分析師跟蹤，監督效應與企業行為研究，華中科技大學博士論文。
豐竹菊，2012，我國上市公司高管人員過度自信對公司業績的影響研究，吉林大
學碩士學位論文。

英文部分
Ahmed, A. S., and Duellman, S. (2013). Managerial overconfidence and accounting conservatism. Journal of Accounting Research, 51(1), 1-30.
Alford, A. W., and Berger, P. G. (1999). A simultaneous equations analysis of forecast accuracy, analyst following, and trading volume. Journal of Accounting, Auditing
and Finance, 14(3), 219-240.
Balashov, V. S., and DeVides, Z. B. (2019). Can analysts predict breaks in earnings strings?. Review of Accounting and Finance.
Balashov, V. S., and Mailibayeva, Z. (2019). Are Analysts Overly Optimistic Around Earnings Strings? SSRN Electronic Journal.
Barth, M. E., and Kallapur, S. JA Elliot and MA Finn (1999),‘Market Rewards Associated with Patterns of Increasing Earnings’. Journal of Accounting Research, 37(3), 87-4.
Barth, M. E., Kasznik, R., and McNichols, M. F. (2001). Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research, 39(1), 1-34.
Bartov, E., Givoly, D., and Hayn, C. (2002). The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 33(2), 173–204.
Beatty, A. L., Ke, B., and Petroni, K. R. (2002). Earnings management to avoid earnings declines across publicly and privately held banks. The Accounting Review, 77(3), 547-570.
Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., and Harvey, C. R. (2007). Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies (No. w13711). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., and Harvey, C. R. (2010). Managerial miscalibration (No. w16215).
Bereskin, F. L., and Hsu, P. H. (2013, October). Bringing in changes: the effect of new CEOs on innovation. In Paris December 2011 Finance Meeting EUROFIDAI-AFFI.
Bhushan, R. (1989). Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11(2-3), 255-274.
Bushman, R. M., Piotroski, J. D., and Smith, A. J. (2005). Insider trading restrictions and analysts` incentives to follow firms. The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 35-66.
Chen, T., Harford, J., and Lin, C. (2015). Do analysts matter for governance? Evidence from natural experiments. Journal of Financial Economics, 115(2), 383-410.
Chintrakarn, P., Jiraporn, P., Kim, Y., and Kim, J. C. (2015). Does corporate governance quality affect analyst coverage? Evidence from the Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS). Applied Economics Letters, 22(4), 312-317.
Chung, K. H., and Jo, H. (1996). The impact of security analysts` monitoring and marketing functions on the market value of firms. Journal of Financial and Quantitative analysis, 31(4), 493-512.
Clinton, S. B., Pinello, A. S., and Skaife, H. A. (2014). The implications of ineffective internal control and SOX 404 reporting for financial analysts. Journal of
Accounting and Public Policy, 33(4), 303-327.
Coen, A., Desfleurs, A., L’Her, J. F., and Suret, J. M. (2005). Another look at factors explaining quality of financial analysts’ forecasts: Evidence from the Asian
emerging markets. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 15(4-5), 414-434.
Cooper, R. A., Day, T. E., and Lewis, C. M. (2001). Following the leader:: a study of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Financial Economics, 61(3),
383-416.
Das, S., R. Guo and H. Zhang, (2006), “Analysts’ Selective Coverage and Subsequent Performance of Newly Public Firms,” Journal of Finance, Vol.61, No.3, 1159-1185.
De Bondt, W. F., and Thaler, R. H. (1995). Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective. Handbooks in Operations Research and
Management Science, 9, 385-410.
Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., and Sweeney, A. P. (1996). Causes and consequences of earnings manipulation: An analysis of firms subject to enforcement actions by
the SEC. Contemporary Accounting Research, 13(1), 1-36.
Dyck, A., Morse, A., and Zingales, L. (2007). Who blows the whistle on corporate fraud? (No. w12882). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Fairchild, R. J. (2005). The effect of Managerial Overconfidence, asymmetric information, and moral hazard on capital structure decisions. Available at SSRN 711845.
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R. (1992). The cross‐section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
Fischer, P. E., and Stocken, P. C. (2010). Analyst information acquisition and communication. The Accounting Review, 85(6), 1985-2009.
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202001180en_US