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題名 分析師盈餘預測準確性之比較： 聯合發布與單獨發布
Analyst Earnings Forecast Accuracy: Comparing Group Forecasts and Individual Forecasts作者 黃靖喬
Huang, Ching-Chiao貢獻者 金成隆
Chin, Chen-Lung
黃靖喬
Huang, Ching-Chiao關鍵詞 團隊分析師
明星分析師
盈餘預測
準確度
Groups analysts
Star analysts
Earnings forecasts
Forecast accuracy日期 2020 上傳時間 2-Sep-2020 11:41:46 (UTC+8) 摘要 研究以2010 至2019 年中國國泰安資料庫為樣本，研究明星分析師對於盈餘預測是否有較優良的表現；團體分析師聯合發布與個人分析師單獨發布與準確度之間的關聯，以及團隊成員間有無明星分析師成員對於盈餘預測準確度之影響。研究結果發現，明星分析師較非明星分析師能發佈較佳的盈餘預測結果，與預測準確度呈現顯著正向關係，與預期結果相符；分析師聯合發布盈餘預測較個人單獨發布準確，與準確度呈現顯著正向關係，與預期結果相符合；而當群體分析師中有明星分析師的組合模式時，預測品質會相對較優良。
The objective of this thesis is to investigate whether star analysts have better performance in making earnings forecasts than non-star analysts, groups of sell-side analysts have better performance in making earnings forecasts than individual analysts and groups analysts that include star analysts have better performance or not. Using data from China Stock Market & Accounting Research Database (CSMAR) in 2010-2019, I find that, consistent with my predictions, star analysts outperform non-star analysts, teamwork in making earnings forecasts is better than individuals, and groups analysts that include star analysts have better performance than those without star analysts.參考文獻 一、中文部分朱紅軍、何賢傑與陶林，2007，中國的證券分析師能夠提高資本市場的效率嗎？—基於股價同步性和股價資訊含量的經驗證據，金融研究，第2期：110-121。李麗青，2012，新財富評選的最佳分析師可信嗎？—基於盈餘預測準確度和預測修正市場反應的經驗證據，投資研究，第7期：54-64。金成隆與陳美惠，2015，高等財務會計研究：理論與實務，滄海出版社。胡奕明，2005，證券分析師研究報告:市場訊息的解讀，北京：清華大學出版社 有限公司。二、英文部分Barth, J. R., G. Caprio, and R. Levine. 2004. Bank Regulation and Supervision: What Works Best? Journal of Financial Intermediation 13 (February): 205-248.Brown, L. D., and A. Hugon. 2009. Team Earnings Forecasting. Review of Accounting studies 14 (April): 587-607.Brown, L. D., and D. M. Chen.1991. How Good is the All-America Research Team in Forecast Earnings? Journal of Business Forecasting 23 (September): 14-18.Brown, L. D., and M. S. Rozeff. 1978. The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings. The Journal of Finance 33 (March): 1-16.Brown, L. D., G. D. Richardson, and S. J. Schwager. 1987. An Information Interpretation of Financial Analyst Superiority in Forecasting Earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 25 (Spring): 49-67.Bonner, S. E., A. Hugon, and B. R. Walther. 2007. Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts: The Case of Earnings Forecast Revisions. Journal of Accounting Research 45 (March): 481-513.Chan, H., R. Faff, A. Khan, P. Mather. 2013. Exploring the Moderating Role of Growth Options on the Relation between Board Characteristics and Management Earnings Forecasts. Corporate Governance: An International Review 21 (April): 314-333.Chen, C., H. Shi, and H. Xu. 2013. Underwriter Reputation, Issuer Ownership, and Pre‐IPO Earnings Management: Evidence from China. Financial Management 42 (Fall): 647-677.Chen, A. Y., T. Y. Lu, M. H. M. Ma, and W. Z. Sun. 2016. Demand Forecast Using Data Analytics for the Pre-allocation of Ambulances. Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics 20 (July): 1178-1187.Clement, M. B. 1999. Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability, Resources, and Portfolio Complexity Matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics 27 (March): 285-303.Clement, M. B., and S. Y. Tse. 2003. Do Investors Respond to Analysts` Forecast Revisions as If Forecast Accuracy is All That Matters. The Accounting Review (January): 227-249.Clement, M. B. and S. Y. Tse. 2005. Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting. The Journal of Finance 60 (July): 307-341.Collins, W. A., and W. S. Hopwood. 1980. A Multivariate-analysis of Annual Earnings Forecasts Generated from Quarterly Forecasts of Financial Analysts and Univariate Time-series Models. Journal of Accounting Research 18 (February): 390-406.Cooper, R. A., T. E. Day, and C. M. Lewis. 2001. Following the Leader: A Study of Individual Analysts` Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Financial Economics 61 (Fall): 383-416.Cragg, J. G., and B. G. Malkiel. 1968. The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings. The Journal of Finance 23 (March): 67-84.Daniel, G., and H. Reid. 1997. Proper Analysis of the Accuracy of Group Judgments. Psychological Bulletin 121 (January): 149–167.Dass, N., V. Nanda, and Q. Wang. 2013. Allocation of Decision Rights and the Investment Strategy of Mutual Funds. Journal of Financial Economics 110 (October): 254-277.Elton, E. J., and M. J. Gruber. 1972. The Economic Value of the Call Option. The Journal of Finance 27 (April): 891-901.Elton, E. J., M. J. Gruber, and M. Gultekin. 1981. Expectations and Share Prices. Management Science 27 (September): 975-987.Emery, D. R., and X. Li. 2009.Are Wall Street Analyst Rankings Popularity Contest? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 44 (April): 411-437.Fang, L. H., and A. Yasuda. 2011. Are Stars` Opinions Worth More? Evidence from Stock Recommendations 1994-2009. Electronic Journal (February).Givoly, D., and J. Lakonishok. 1979. The information Content of Financial Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings: Some Evidence on Semi-strong Inefficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics 1 (March): 165-185.Green, C., N. Jegadeesh, and Y. Tang. 2009. Gender and Job Performance: Evidence from Wall Street. Financial Analysts Journal 65 (June): 65-78.Holmstrom, B. 1982. Moral Hazard in Teams. The Bell Journal of Economics 13 (Fall): 324-340.Hong, H., and J. D. Kubik. 2003. Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Finance 58 (January): 313-351.Hong, H., T. Lim, and J. C. Stein. 2007. Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies. The Journal of Finance 55 (March): 265-295.Jackson, A. R. 2005.Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐side Analysts. The Journal of Finance 60 (February): 673-717.Jacob, J., T. Z. Lys, and M. A. Neale, 1999. Expertise in Forecasting Performance of Security Analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28 (January): 51-82.Kerr, N. L., and R. S. Tindale. 2004. Group Performance and Decision Making. Annual Review of Psychology 55 (January): 623-55.Kothari, S. P. 2001. Capital Markets Research in Accounting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (January–March): 105-231.Kumar, V. 2010. Customer Relationship Management. Wiley International Encyclopedia of Marketing.Leone, A. J., and J. S. Wu. 2007. What Does it Take to Become a Superstar? Evidence from Institutional Investor Rankings of Financial Analysts. Simon School of Business Working Paper No. FR (May): 02-12.Luo, L., and J. Zeng. 2014. Do Groups Outperform Individuals? Evidence from Earnings Forecasts.Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 1997.Do Security Analysts Improve Their Performance with Experience? Journal of Accounting Research 35: 131-157.Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 2002. Do Security Analysts Exhibit Persistent Differences in Stock Picking Ability. Electronic Journal 74 (January): 67-91.O` Brien, P. K. 1988. The Political Economy of British Taxation, 1660‐1815. The Economic History Review 41 (January): 1-32.Pelled, L. H., K. M. Eisenhardt, and K. R. Xin. 1999. Exploring the Black Box: An Analysis of Work Group Diversity, Conflict, and Performance. Administrative Science Quarterly 44 (March): 1-28.Prather, L. J., and K. L. Middleton. 2002. Are N + 1 Heads Better than One? The Case of Mutual Fund Managers. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 47 (Spring): 103-120.Powell, M., and D. Ansic. 1997. Gender Differences in Risk Behavior in Financial Decision-making: An Experimental Analysis. Journal of Economic Psychology 18 (November): 605-628.Ramnath, S., R., S. Rock, and P. Shane. 2008. The Financial Analyst Forecasting Literature: A Taxonomy with Suggestions for Further Research. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (January–March): 34-75.Sharpe, W. F. 1981. Decentralized Investment Management. Journal of Finance 36 (September): 217-234.Stickel, S. E. 1992. Reputation and Performance Among Security Analysts. The Journal of Finance 47 (May): 1811-1836.Watson, W. E., K. Kumar, and L. K. Michaelsen. 1993. Cultural Diversity`s Impact on Interaction Process and Performance: Comparing Homogeneous and Diverse Task Groups. Academy of Management Journal 36 (March): 590-602.Ye, L., F. Libing, and J. Yi. 2013. The Interaction between IPO Earnings Management Incentive and Underwriter`s Choice Decision and Regulatory Inspiration—Research Based on Bilateral Matching Model. Shanghai Finance (August). 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
107353036資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107353036 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 金成隆 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chin, Chen-Lung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃靖喬 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Ching-Chiao en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃靖喬 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Huang, Ching-Chiao en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2020 11:41:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2020 11:41:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2020 11:41:46 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107353036 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131470 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107353036 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 研究以2010 至2019 年中國國泰安資料庫為樣本，研究明星分析師對於盈餘預測是否有較優良的表現；團體分析師聯合發布與個人分析師單獨發布與準確度之間的關聯，以及團隊成員間有無明星分析師成員對於盈餘預測準確度之影響。研究結果發現，明星分析師較非明星分析師能發佈較佳的盈餘預測結果，與預測準確度呈現顯著正向關係，與預期結果相符；分析師聯合發布盈餘預測較個人單獨發布準確，與準確度呈現顯著正向關係，與預期結果相符合；而當群體分析師中有明星分析師的組合模式時，預測品質會相對較優良。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The objective of this thesis is to investigate whether star analysts have better performance in making earnings forecasts than non-star analysts, groups of sell-side analysts have better performance in making earnings forecasts than individual analysts and groups analysts that include star analysts have better performance or not. Using data from China Stock Market & Accounting Research Database (CSMAR) in 2010-2019, I find that, consistent with my predictions, star analysts outperform non-star analysts, teamwork in making earnings forecasts is better than individuals, and groups analysts that include star analysts have better performance than those without star analysts. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的 2第二章 文獻探討與假說發展 3第一節 分析師盈餘預測準確性 3第二節 團隊分析師聯合發布之相關文獻 5第三節 明星分析師及榜單之相關文獻 6第四節 研究假說發展 10第三章 研究設計 12第一節 樣本選取 12第二節 實證模型 12第三節 變數衡量 14第四章 實證結果與分析 19第一節 敘述性統計 19第二節 相關係數分析 21第三節 迴歸分析 23第四節 進一步分析與討論 26第五章 結論 30第一節 研究結論 30第二節 研究限制與建議 30參考文獻 32 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107353036 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 團隊分析師 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 明星分析師 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 準確度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Groups analysts en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Star analysts en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Earnings forecasts en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecast accuracy en_US dc.title (題名) 分析師盈餘預測準確性之比較： 聯合發布與單獨發布 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Analyst Earnings Forecast Accuracy: Comparing Group Forecasts and Individual Forecasts en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分朱紅軍、何賢傑與陶林，2007，中國的證券分析師能夠提高資本市場的效率嗎？—基於股價同步性和股價資訊含量的經驗證據，金融研究，第2期：110-121。李麗青，2012，新財富評選的最佳分析師可信嗎？—基於盈餘預測準確度和預測修正市場反應的經驗證據，投資研究，第7期：54-64。金成隆與陳美惠，2015，高等財務會計研究：理論與實務，滄海出版社。胡奕明，2005，證券分析師研究報告:市場訊息的解讀，北京：清華大學出版社 有限公司。二、英文部分Barth, J. R., G. Caprio, and R. Levine. 2004. Bank Regulation and Supervision: What Works Best? Journal of Financial Intermediation 13 (February): 205-248.Brown, L. D., and A. Hugon. 2009. Team Earnings Forecasting. Review of Accounting studies 14 (April): 587-607.Brown, L. D., and D. M. Chen.1991. How Good is the All-America Research Team in Forecast Earnings? Journal of Business Forecasting 23 (September): 14-18.Brown, L. D., and M. S. Rozeff. 1978. The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings. The Journal of Finance 33 (March): 1-16.Brown, L. D., G. D. Richardson, and S. J. Schwager. 1987. An Information Interpretation of Financial Analyst Superiority in Forecasting Earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 25 (Spring): 49-67.Bonner, S. E., A. Hugon, and B. R. Walther. 2007. Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts: The Case of Earnings Forecast Revisions. Journal of Accounting Research 45 (March): 481-513.Chan, H., R. Faff, A. Khan, P. Mather. 2013. Exploring the Moderating Role of Growth Options on the Relation between Board Characteristics and Management Earnings Forecasts. Corporate Governance: An International Review 21 (April): 314-333.Chen, C., H. Shi, and H. Xu. 2013. Underwriter Reputation, Issuer Ownership, and Pre‐IPO Earnings Management: Evidence from China. Financial Management 42 (Fall): 647-677.Chen, A. Y., T. Y. Lu, M. H. M. Ma, and W. Z. Sun. 2016. Demand Forecast Using Data Analytics for the Pre-allocation of Ambulances. Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics 20 (July): 1178-1187.Clement, M. B. 1999. Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability, Resources, and Portfolio Complexity Matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics 27 (March): 285-303.Clement, M. B., and S. Y. Tse. 2003. Do Investors Respond to Analysts` Forecast Revisions as If Forecast Accuracy is All That Matters. The Accounting Review (January): 227-249.Clement, M. B. and S. Y. Tse. 2005. Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting. The Journal of Finance 60 (July): 307-341.Collins, W. A., and W. S. Hopwood. 1980. A Multivariate-analysis of Annual Earnings Forecasts Generated from Quarterly Forecasts of Financial Analysts and Univariate Time-series Models. Journal of Accounting Research 18 (February): 390-406.Cooper, R. A., T. E. Day, and C. M. Lewis. 2001. Following the Leader: A Study of Individual Analysts` Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Financial Economics 61 (Fall): 383-416.Cragg, J. G., and B. G. Malkiel. 1968. The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings. The Journal of Finance 23 (March): 67-84.Daniel, G., and H. Reid. 1997. Proper Analysis of the Accuracy of Group Judgments. Psychological Bulletin 121 (January): 149–167.Dass, N., V. Nanda, and Q. Wang. 2013. Allocation of Decision Rights and the Investment Strategy of Mutual Funds. Journal of Financial Economics 110 (October): 254-277.Elton, E. J., and M. J. Gruber. 1972. The Economic Value of the Call Option. The Journal of Finance 27 (April): 891-901.Elton, E. J., M. J. Gruber, and M. Gultekin. 1981. Expectations and Share Prices. Management Science 27 (September): 975-987.Emery, D. R., and X. Li. 2009.Are Wall Street Analyst Rankings Popularity Contest? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 44 (April): 411-437.Fang, L. H., and A. Yasuda. 2011. Are Stars` Opinions Worth More? Evidence from Stock Recommendations 1994-2009. Electronic Journal (February).Givoly, D., and J. Lakonishok. 1979. The information Content of Financial Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings: Some Evidence on Semi-strong Inefficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics 1 (March): 165-185.Green, C., N. Jegadeesh, and Y. Tang. 2009. Gender and Job Performance: Evidence from Wall Street. Financial Analysts Journal 65 (June): 65-78.Holmstrom, B. 1982. Moral Hazard in Teams. The Bell Journal of Economics 13 (Fall): 324-340.Hong, H., and J. D. Kubik. 2003. Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Finance 58 (January): 313-351.Hong, H., T. Lim, and J. C. Stein. 2007. Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies. The Journal of Finance 55 (March): 265-295.Jackson, A. R. 2005.Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐side Analysts. The Journal of Finance 60 (February): 673-717.Jacob, J., T. Z. Lys, and M. A. Neale, 1999. Expertise in Forecasting Performance of Security Analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28 (January): 51-82.Kerr, N. L., and R. S. Tindale. 2004. Group Performance and Decision Making. Annual Review of Psychology 55 (January): 623-55.Kothari, S. P. 2001. Capital Markets Research in Accounting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (January–March): 105-231.Kumar, V. 2010. Customer Relationship Management. Wiley International Encyclopedia of Marketing.Leone, A. J., and J. S. Wu. 2007. What Does it Take to Become a Superstar? Evidence from Institutional Investor Rankings of Financial Analysts. Simon School of Business Working Paper No. FR (May): 02-12.Luo, L., and J. Zeng. 2014. Do Groups Outperform Individuals? Evidence from Earnings Forecasts.Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 1997.Do Security Analysts Improve Their Performance with Experience? Journal of Accounting Research 35: 131-157.Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 2002. Do Security Analysts Exhibit Persistent Differences in Stock Picking Ability. Electronic Journal 74 (January): 67-91.O` Brien, P. K. 1988. The Political Economy of British Taxation, 1660‐1815. The Economic History Review 41 (January): 1-32.Pelled, L. H., K. M. Eisenhardt, and K. R. Xin. 1999. Exploring the Black Box: An Analysis of Work Group Diversity, Conflict, and Performance. Administrative Science Quarterly 44 (March): 1-28.Prather, L. J., and K. L. Middleton. 2002. Are N + 1 Heads Better than One? The Case of Mutual Fund Managers. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 47 (Spring): 103-120.Powell, M., and D. Ansic. 1997. Gender Differences in Risk Behavior in Financial Decision-making: An Experimental Analysis. Journal of Economic Psychology 18 (November): 605-628.Ramnath, S., R., S. Rock, and P. Shane. 2008. The Financial Analyst Forecasting Literature: A Taxonomy with Suggestions for Further Research. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (January–March): 34-75.Sharpe, W. F. 1981. Decentralized Investment Management. Journal of Finance 36 (September): 217-234.Stickel, S. E. 1992. Reputation and Performance Among Security Analysts. The Journal of Finance 47 (May): 1811-1836.Watson, W. E., K. Kumar, and L. K. Michaelsen. 1993. Cultural Diversity`s Impact on Interaction Process and Performance: Comparing Homogeneous and Diverse Task Groups. Academy of Management Journal 36 (March): 590-602.Ye, L., F. Libing, and J. Yi. 2013. The Interaction between IPO Earnings Management Incentive and Underwriter`s Choice Decision and Regulatory Inspiration—Research Based on Bilateral Matching Model. Shanghai Finance (August). zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202001202 en_US
