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題名 以金融機構觀點分析國際航運投資之研究-運用混合MADM分析法
Investment of International Shipping for Financial Institution Perspectives by Using Hybrid MADM Method作者 陳稟恆
Chen, Bing-Heng貢獻者 林靖<br>陳心蘋
Lin, Jin<br>Chen, Sin-Ping
陳稟恆
Chen, Bing-Heng關鍵詞 MCDM
混合 MADM
DEMATEL
ANP
VIKOR
修正式 VIKOR
國際航運投資
績效評估
基本面分析
MCDM
Hybrid MADM
DEMATEL
ANP
VIKOR
modified VIKOR
Investment of International Shipping
Performance Evaluation
Fundamental Analysis日期 2020 上傳時間 2-Sep-2020 12:46:40 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文針對金融機構觀點對國際航運投資進行了相關研究，並運用混合MADM 分析法進行探討。根據過去相關文獻，再由 15 位專家對初擬之指標進行重要度評估後，本文最終採用了 18 個準則作為研究指標，並將這些指標分成四個維度來探討。由 DANP-mV 的混合 MADM 模型對國際航運投資進行分析中，首先本文運用應用決策實驗室分析法(DEMATEL)技術，對因素間之相互影響關係進行分析，並找出影響路徑的源頭。此外，得建構出可視化的影響網絡關係圖(INRM)；再者，透過 DANP Type II 技術之運用，將問卷調查中各準則的成對比較步驟簡單化；最後，透過修正式 VIKOR 技術，經由比較各方案的評估值和渴望水準(Aspiration Level)的相對程度來對方案進行優先順序。此外，配合缺口值(Gap)的計算，可以對公司提出根源改善之建議，令其對問題的源頭進行檢視與改良，或可更進一步改善其績效表現。本文研究結果表示專家認為以金融機構觀點對國際航運進行投資時首先應優先考量的因素為負債權益比。除此之外，藉由缺口值的表現與 INRM 得以找出準則間影響路徑的源頭，以進行根源改善。經由本研究之實證結果發現，當國際航運公司對內部人持股比例進行改善，可能造成系統性的全面改進，或可幫助航運公司在其績效表現上更進一步的優化。
This article research on international shipping investment.We use the hybrid MADM analysis method to discuss it. According to the literature, this study finally adopted 18 criteria as research indicators, and divided these indicators into the four dimensions.In the DANP-mV model, firstly, we use the DEMATEL to analyze the relationship between the factors and find the source of the influence path. In addition, we can construct the Influential Network Relation Map (INRM). Secondly, through the DANP Type II, the questionnaire is simplified. Finally, through the modified VIKOR technology, we can prioritize the alternatives. In addition, with the calculation of the gap, we can propose improvements to the company, so that it can improve its performance.The results indicate that experts believe that the first priority factor to consider when investing in international shipping is the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio. In addition, through the performance of the gap value and the INRM, the source of the influence path can be found to improve the root cause.The empirical results of this study found that when an international shipping company improves the proportion of insiders` shareholding, it may result in a systematic and comprehensive improvement, or it may help the shipping company to further optimize its performance.參考文獻 Albertijn, S., Bessler, W., & Drobetz, W. (2011). Financing shipping companies and shipping operations: A risk‐management perspective. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 23(4), 70-82.Alexandridis, G., Kavussanos, M. G., Kim, C. Y., Tsouknidis, D. A., & Visvikis, I. D.(2018). A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 115, 164-212.Bao, T. T., Xie, X. L., & Long, P. Y. (2017). Shipping enterprise performance evaluation under uncertainty base on multiple-criteria evidential reasoning approach. Transportation research procedia, 25, 2757-2768.Bhatt, R. R., & Bhattacharya, S. (2015). Board structure and firm performance in Indian IT firms. Journal of Advances in Management Research.Buchory, H. A. (2015). Banking profitability: How does the credit risk and operational efficiency effect. Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 3(4), 118-123.Chang, S. C., & Tsai, P. H. (2016). A hybrid financial performance evaluation model for wealth management banks following the global financial crisis. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 22(1), 21-46.Chava, S., & Purnanandam, A. (2011). The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(1), 116-135.Chiu, W. Y., Tzeng, G. H., & Li, H. L. (2013). A new hybrid MCDM model combining DANP with VIKOR to improve e-store business. Knowledge-Based Systems, 37, 48-61.Ciftci, I., Tatoglu, E., Wood, G., Demirbag, M., & Zaim, S. (2019). Corporate governance and firm performance in emerging markets: Evidence from Turkey. International Business Review, 28(1), 90-103.Dittmar, A., & Mahrt-Smith, J. (2007). Corporate governance and the value of cash holdings. Journal of financial economics, 83(3), 599-634.Drobetz, W., Menzel, C., & Schröder, H. (2016). Systematic risk behavior in cyclical industries: The case of shipping. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 88, 129-145.Florio, C., & Leoni, G. (2017). Enterprise risk management and firm performance: The Italian case. The British Accounting Review, 49(1), 56-74.Gaur, S. S., Bathula, H., & Singh, D. (2015). Ownership concentration, board characteristics and firm performance. Management Decision.Gong, S. X., Ye, H. Q., & Zeng, Y. Y. (2013). Impacts of the recent financial crisis on ship financing in Hong Kong: a research note. Maritime Policy & Management, 40(1), 1-9.Haider, J., Ou, Z., & Pettit, S. (2019). Predicting corporate failure for listed shipping companies. Maritime Economics & Logistics, 21(3), 415-438.Hu, S. K., & Tzeng, G. H. (2019). A Hybrid Multiple-Attribute Decision-Making Model with Modified PROMETHEE for Identifying Optimal Performance-Improvement Strategies for Sustainable Development of a Better Life. Social Indicators Research, 144(3), 1021-1053.Kavussanos, M. G., & Tsouknidis, D. A. (2016). Default risk drivers in shipping bank loans. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 94, 71-94.Kyereboah-Coleman, A. (2008). Corporate governance and firm performance in Africa: A dynamic panel data analysis. Studies in Economics and econometrics, 32(2), 1-24.Lasfer, M. A. (2006). The interrelationship between managerial ownership and board structure. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 33(7‐8), 1006-1033.Lee, K. R., & Pak, M. S. (2018). Multi-criteria analysis of decision-making by international commercial banks for providing shipping loans. Maritime Policy & Management, 45(7), 850-862.Lee, P. T. W., Lin, C. W., & Shin, S. H. (2012). A comparative study on financial positions of shipping companies in Taiwan and Korea using entropy and grey relation analysis. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(5), 5649-5657.Lee, W. S., Huang, A. Y., Chang, Y. Y., & Cheng, C. M. (2011). Analysis of decision making factors for equity investment by DEMATEL and Analytic Network Process. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(7), 8375-8383.Lee, W. S., Tzeng, G. H., Guan, J. L., Chien, K. T., & Huang, J. M. (2009). Combined MCDM techniques for exploring stock selection based on Gordon model. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3), 6421-6430.Liou, J. J., Tsai, C. Y., Lin, R. H., & Tzeng, G. H. (2011). A modified VIKOR multiple-criteria decision method for improving domestic airlines service quality. Journal of Air Transport Management, 17(2), 57-61.Liu, K. M., Lin, S. H., Hsieh, J. C., & Tzeng, G. H. (2018). Improving the food waste composting facilities site selection for sustainable development using a hybrid modified MADM model. Waste management, 75, 44-59.Liu, Y., Yang, Y., Liu, Y., & Tzeng, G. H. (2019). Improving sustainable mobile health care promotion: a novel hybrid MCDM method. Sustainability, 11(3), 752.Lozinskaia, A., Merikas, A., Merika, A., & Penikas, H. (2017). Determinants of the probability of default: the case of the internationally listed shipping corporations. Maritime Policy & Management, 44(7), 837-858.Mertzanis, C., Basuony, M. A., & Mohamed, E. K. (2019). Social institutions, corporate governance and firm-performance in the MENA region. Research in International Business and Finance, 48, 75-96.Opricovic, S. (1998). Multicriteria optimization of civil engineering systems. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Belgrade, 2(1), 5-21Peng, K. H., & Tzeng, G. H. (2013). A hybrid dynamic MADM model for problem improvement in economics and business. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 19(4), 638-660.Peng, K. H., & Tzeng, G. H. (2019). Exploring heritage tourism performance improvement for making sustainable development strategies using the hybrid-modified MADM model. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(8), 921-947.Pillai, R., & Al-Malkawi, H. A. N. (2018). On the relationship between corporate governance and firm performance: Evidence from GCC countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 394-410.Qu, G. B., Zhao, T. Y., Zhu, B. W., Tzeng, G. H., & Huang, S. L. (2019). Use of a Modified DANP-mV Model to Improve Quality of Life in Rural Residents: The Empirical Case of Xingshisi Village, China. International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(1), 153.Saaty, T. L. (1996). Decision making with dependence and feedback: The analytic network process (Vol. 4922). RWS Publ..Shen, K. Y., & Tzeng, G. H. (2015). A new approach and insightful financial diagnoses for the IT industry based on a hybrid MADM model. Knowledge-Based Systems, 85, 112-130.Shen, K. Y., Hu, S. K., & Tzeng, G. H. (2017). Financial modeling and improvement planning for the life insurance industry by using a rough knowledge based hybrid MCDM model. Information Sciences, 375, 296-313.Shen, K. Y., Yan, M. R., & Tzeng, G. H. (2014). Combining VIKOR-DANP model for glamor stock selection and stock performance improvement. Knowledge-Based Systems, 58, 86-97.Syriopoulos, T., & Gavalas, D. (2016). Exploring the cyclical stance of the shipping market introducing the Shipping Climate Tracer. Exploring the cyclical stance of the shipping market introducing the Shipping Climate Tracer, 247-264.Tung, C. T., & Lee, Y. J. (2009). A novel approach to construct grey principal component analysis evaluation model. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3), 5916-5920.Tzeng, G. H., & Huang, J. J. (2011). Multiple attribute decision making: methods and applications. CRC press.Valenti, M. A., Luce, R., & Mayfield, C. (2011). The effects of firm performance on corporate governance. Management Research Review.Wang, Y. J. (2008). Applying FMCDM to evaluate financial performance of domestic airlines in Taiwan. Expert Systems with Applications, 34(3), 1837-1845.Wang, Y. J. (2014). The evaluation of financial performance for Taiwan container shipping companies by fuzzy TOPSIS. Applied Soft Computing, 22, 28-35.Yang, Z., Jiang, Z., Notteboom, T., & Haralambides, H. (2019). The impact of ship scrapping subsidies on fleet renewal decisions in dry bulk shipping. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 126, 177-189.Zahra, S. A. (2014). Public and corporate governance and young global entrepreneurial firms. Corporate Governance: An International Review, 22(2), 77-83. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
107258033資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107258033 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林靖<br>陳心蘋 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Jin<br>Chen, Sin-Ping en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳稟恆 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Bing-Heng en_US dc.creator (作者) 陳稟恆 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chen, Bing-Heng en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2020 12:46:40 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2020 12:46:40 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2020 12:46:40 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107258033 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131789 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107258033 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文針對金融機構觀點對國際航運投資進行了相關研究，並運用混合MADM 分析法進行探討。根據過去相關文獻，再由 15 位專家對初擬之指標進行重要度評估後，本文最終採用了 18 個準則作為研究指標，並將這些指標分成四個維度來探討。由 DANP-mV 的混合 MADM 模型對國際航運投資進行分析中，首先本文運用應用決策實驗室分析法(DEMATEL)技術，對因素間之相互影響關係進行分析，並找出影響路徑的源頭。此外，得建構出可視化的影響網絡關係圖(INRM)；再者，透過 DANP Type II 技術之運用，將問卷調查中各準則的成對比較步驟簡單化；最後，透過修正式 VIKOR 技術，經由比較各方案的評估值和渴望水準(Aspiration Level)的相對程度來對方案進行優先順序。此外，配合缺口值(Gap)的計算，可以對公司提出根源改善之建議，令其對問題的源頭進行檢視與改良，或可更進一步改善其績效表現。本文研究結果表示專家認為以金融機構觀點對國際航運進行投資時首先應優先考量的因素為負債權益比。除此之外，藉由缺口值的表現與 INRM 得以找出準則間影響路徑的源頭，以進行根源改善。經由本研究之實證結果發現，當國際航運公司對內部人持股比例進行改善，可能造成系統性的全面改進，或可幫助航運公司在其績效表現上更進一步的優化。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This article research on international shipping investment.We use the hybrid MADM analysis method to discuss it. According to the literature, this study finally adopted 18 criteria as research indicators, and divided these indicators into the four dimensions.In the DANP-mV model, firstly, we use the DEMATEL to analyze the relationship between the factors and find the source of the influence path. In addition, we can construct the Influential Network Relation Map (INRM). Secondly, through the DANP Type II, the questionnaire is simplified. Finally, through the modified VIKOR technology, we can prioritize the alternatives. In addition, with the calculation of the gap, we can propose improvements to the company, so that it can improve its performance.The results indicate that experts believe that the first priority factor to consider when investing in international shipping is the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio. In addition, through the performance of the gap value and the INRM, the source of the influence path can be found to improve the root cause.The empirical results of this study found that when an international shipping company improves the proportion of insiders` shareholding, it may result in a systematic and comprehensive improvement, or it may help the shipping company to further optimize its performance. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 表次 iii圖次 iv第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景 1第二節 研究動機 3第三節 研究目的 5第四節 研究流程 6第二章 文獻回顧 7第一節 對航運業績效評估之文獻回顧 7第二節 運用MCDM對績效評估之文獻回顧 8第三節 運用MCDM對投資研究之文獻回顧 10第四節 DANP-mV模型文獻回顧 11第三章 研究方法 15第一節 .研究流程概述 15第二節 樣本資料挑選流程與來源 17第三節 指標架構之建立 19第四節 模型設定 22第四章 實證結果 30第一節 資料蒐集 30第二節 以金融機構觀點分析國際航運投資準則間關係 32第三節 影響權重之取得 46第四節 缺口評估以及方案排序 48第五章 結論與建議 52第一節 結論 52第二節 投資意涵 54第三節 研究限制與未來建議 55參考文獻 56附錄 61附錄一、指標重要度問卷 61附錄二、專家訪談成對比較問卷 65 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3453723 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107258033 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) MCDM zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 混合 MADM zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) DEMATEL zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) ANP zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) VIKOR zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 修正式 VIKOR zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際航運投資 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 績效評估 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 基本面分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) MCDM en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hybrid MADM en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) DEMATEL en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) ANP en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) VIKOR en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) modified VIKOR en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Investment of International Shipping en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Performance Evaluation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fundamental Analysis en_US dc.title (題名) 以金融機構觀點分析國際航運投資之研究-運用混合MADM分析法 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Investment of International Shipping for Financial Institution Perspectives by Using Hybrid MADM Method en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Albertijn, S., Bessler, W., & Drobetz, W. (2011). Financing shipping companies and shipping operations: A risk‐management perspective. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 23(4), 70-82.Alexandridis, G., Kavussanos, M. G., Kim, C. Y., Tsouknidis, D. A., & Visvikis, I. D.(2018). A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 115, 164-212.Bao, T. T., Xie, X. L., & Long, P. Y. (2017). Shipping enterprise performance evaluation under uncertainty base on multiple-criteria evidential reasoning approach. Transportation research procedia, 25, 2757-2768.Bhatt, R. R., & Bhattacharya, S. (2015). Board structure and firm performance in Indian IT firms. Journal of Advances in Management Research.Buchory, H. A. (2015). Banking profitability: How does the credit risk and operational efficiency effect. Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 3(4), 118-123.Chang, S. C., & Tsai, P. H. (2016). A hybrid financial performance evaluation model for wealth management banks following the global financial crisis. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 22(1), 21-46.Chava, S., & Purnanandam, A. (2011). The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(1), 116-135.Chiu, W. Y., Tzeng, G. H., & Li, H. L. (2013). A new hybrid MCDM model combining DANP with VIKOR to improve e-store business. Knowledge-Based Systems, 37, 48-61.Ciftci, I., Tatoglu, E., Wood, G., Demirbag, M., & Zaim, S. (2019). Corporate governance and firm performance in emerging markets: Evidence from Turkey. International Business Review, 28(1), 90-103.Dittmar, A., & Mahrt-Smith, J. (2007). Corporate governance and the value of cash holdings. Journal of financial economics, 83(3), 599-634.Drobetz, W., Menzel, C., & Schröder, H. (2016). Systematic risk behavior in cyclical industries: The case of shipping. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 88, 129-145.Florio, C., & Leoni, G. (2017). Enterprise risk management and firm performance: The Italian case. The British Accounting Review, 49(1), 56-74.Gaur, S. S., Bathula, H., & Singh, D. (2015). Ownership concentration, board characteristics and firm performance. Management Decision.Gong, S. X., Ye, H. Q., & Zeng, Y. Y. (2013). Impacts of the recent financial crisis on ship financing in Hong Kong: a research note. Maritime Policy & Management, 40(1), 1-9.Haider, J., Ou, Z., & Pettit, S. (2019). Predicting corporate failure for listed shipping companies. Maritime Economics & Logistics, 21(3), 415-438.Hu, S. K., & Tzeng, G. H. (2019). A Hybrid Multiple-Attribute Decision-Making Model with Modified PROMETHEE for Identifying Optimal Performance-Improvement Strategies for Sustainable Development of a Better Life. Social Indicators Research, 144(3), 1021-1053.Kavussanos, M. G., & Tsouknidis, D. A. (2016). Default risk drivers in shipping bank loans. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 94, 71-94.Kyereboah-Coleman, A. (2008). Corporate governance and firm performance in Africa: A dynamic panel data analysis. Studies in Economics and econometrics, 32(2), 1-24.Lasfer, M. A. (2006). The interrelationship between managerial ownership and board structure. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 33(7‐8), 1006-1033.Lee, K. R., & Pak, M. S. (2018). Multi-criteria analysis of decision-making by international commercial banks for providing shipping loans. Maritime Policy & Management, 45(7), 850-862.Lee, P. T. W., Lin, C. W., & Shin, S. H. (2012). A comparative study on financial positions of shipping companies in Taiwan and Korea using entropy and grey relation analysis. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(5), 5649-5657.Lee, W. S., Huang, A. Y., Chang, Y. Y., & Cheng, C. M. (2011). Analysis of decision making factors for equity investment by DEMATEL and Analytic Network Process. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(7), 8375-8383.Lee, W. S., Tzeng, G. H., Guan, J. L., Chien, K. T., & Huang, J. M. (2009). Combined MCDM techniques for exploring stock selection based on Gordon model. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3), 6421-6430.Liou, J. J., Tsai, C. Y., Lin, R. H., & Tzeng, G. H. (2011). A modified VIKOR multiple-criteria decision method for improving domestic airlines service quality. Journal of Air Transport Management, 17(2), 57-61.Liu, K. M., Lin, S. H., Hsieh, J. C., & Tzeng, G. H. (2018). Improving the food waste composting facilities site selection for sustainable development using a hybrid modified MADM model. Waste management, 75, 44-59.Liu, Y., Yang, Y., Liu, Y., & Tzeng, G. H. (2019). Improving sustainable mobile health care promotion: a novel hybrid MCDM method. Sustainability, 11(3), 752.Lozinskaia, A., Merikas, A., Merika, A., & Penikas, H. 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