| dc.contributor.advisor | 吳啟銘 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Wu, Chi-Ming | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 黃俊豪 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Wong, Chon-Hou | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 黃俊豪 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Wong, Chon-Hou | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2020 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2-Sep-2020 13:15:57 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 2-Sep-2020 13:15:57 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 2-Sep-2020 13:15:57 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0106363118 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131940 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 企業管理研究所(MBA學位學程) | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 106363118 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 獨角獸公司指的是外界估值超過10億美元的公司，近年的獨角獸公司數量越來越多，且紛紛走向上市，但往往上市後股價往表現不佳，顯示存在上市前估值過高的問題。造成發行價格高估原因是否為估值方法或類似公司選擇有誤？又或是由於投資銀行對公司未來營運績效高估造成？傳統DCF Method估值模型依賴自由現金流為正且必須穩定及可預測，這種評價方法是否適用於上市時通常仍處於虧損、負自由現金流的新創公司？本研究以知名獨角獸，全球最大叫車平台優步公司上市為個案作觀察，分析公司外部環境及內部營運表現後作出情境假設，評估公司轉虧為盈的可能性，並參考投行報告對未來財務績效的預估，嘗試驗證更精準的估值方法，並可得出兩個重點：一、DCF method導入價值驅動因子，結合企業分析得出的未來營運情境假設下，並評估公司轉虧為盈的可能性，將評價結果與實務上投資銀行常用的倍數法評價比較後，顯示DCF Method更準確計算股權價值。同時本研究透過公司上市後的實際財務表現對模型作出盈餘預期修正，發現較原本的計算結果更加貼近真實股價表現，進一步驗證此模型的可行性。二、由於評價方法的簡易性，投資銀行傾向使用倍數法，但對於上市時仍處於虧損的公司來說，倍數法忽略了公司上市時的負自由現金流及融資壓力，且在挑選類似公司容易出現選擇偏誤，因而較收益法易造成誤差。本研究認為若投資人以倍數法評價公司時，選擇的類似公司應聚焦於商業模式本質類似的公司，而非選擇大量電商型或網路型公司，雖然導致類似公司數量減少，但計算結果也更貼近真實股價。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | A unicorn company refers to a private company with a valuation of more than US$1 billion. Because start-up companies have a high failure rate, companies that can survive and obtain such high valuations are quite rare, so they are called "unicorns" in the venture capital industry. However, the number of unicorn companies has increased and gone public in recent years, and their stock prices have often underperformed after listing, indicating that there is a problem of overvalued before listing. Is the issue price ovepricing caused by the wrong valuation method? Or is it caused by investment banks overestimating the company`s future operating performance? On the other hand, the traditional DCF Method valuation model relies on positive free cash flow and must be stable and predictable. Is DCF method suitable for startups valuation that are still losing money and with negative free cash flow when they go public?This study observed the listing of Uber, a well-known unicorn and the world’s largest ride-hailing platform, as a case study. After analyzing the company’s external environment and internal operating performance, the study built up scenario assumptions and made reference to the investment bank’s report on its future financial performance estimates, trying to verify if DCF method is a more accurate valuation method, and finally put forward operating recommendations on maximizing enterprise value. The study could be summarized as two key points:1. The study introduced several value driving factors to the DCF method and compares it with the comparables companies’ multiple method which commonly used by investment banks in practice. The results shown that the DCF Method calculates equity value more accurately. At the same time, this study used the actual financial performance of the company for earning revision of the model, and found that the calculation results are closer to the real stock price performance than the original calculation results, further verifying the feasibility of this model.2. Due to the simplicity of the evaluation method, investment banks tend to use the comparable companies’ multiple method. This study believed that when choosing comparable companies of a unicorn company, we should focus on companies with similar business models and natures instead of choosing a large number of e-commerce or online companies. Though the number of comparables is reduced, the calculation result is closer to the real stock price performance. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 表 次 VI圖 次 VII第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景及動機 1第二節 研究方法 2第二章 文獻回顧 3第一節 獨角獸公司定義 3第二節 全球獨角獸分布 5第三節 獨角獸公司上市原因分析 7第四節 近年獨角獸公司上市表現 10第五節 優步公司上市表現 12第六節 文獻回顧 14第三章 優步公司營運分析 17第一節 優步公司簡介 17第二節 優步公司經營概況 18第三節 外部環境分析 23第四節 公司內部分析 29第五節 影響未來營運情境的價值創造活動 42第四章 優步公司評價 46第一節 企業價值評估方法選擇 46第二節 自由現金流量假設 48第三節 折現率計算 56第四節 終值、企業價值與股權價值計算 60第五節 評價結果分析 63第五章 結論及建議 67第一節 研究結論 67第二節 研究限制 68參考文獻 69 | zh_TW |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106363118 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 獨角獸 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 企業評價 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 新創獨角獸的評價與挑戰：以優步公司為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Operational Challenges and Valuation of Unicorn Startups: Case Study of Uber Technology, Inc. | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en_US |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 1. 吳啟銘，(2010)。企業評價：個案實證分析。台北市：智勝文化事業。2. 中國IT研究中心，(2016)。2016年Q1中國專車市場研究報告3. Bloomberg Terminal4. Bunyamin Er, (2012). The Accuracy of Price-Earnings Ratio and Discounted Cash Flow Methods in Predicting the Offer Price of IPO Stocks.5. Catherine Tucker, (2018). Why Network Effects Matter Less Than They Used to. Harvard Business Review.6. Gompers, Paul A., William Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ilya A. Strebulaev, (2016). How Do Venture Capitalists Make Decisions? NBER Working Paper Series, No. 225877. Keith C. Brown, Ken Wiles, (2015). In Search of Unicorns: Private IPOs and the Changing Markets for Private Equity Investments and Corporate Control. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 27(3):34-488. Keith Wright, (2018). Silicon Valley tech bubble is larger than it was in 2000, and the end is coming.9. Marc Deloof, Wouter De Maeseneire, Koen Inghelbrecht, (2009). How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)? Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 36(1-2):130-16010. Rajesh Aggarwal, Sanjai Bhagat, Srinivasan Rangan, (2009). The Impact of Fundamentals on IPO Valuation. Financial Management 38(2):253 – 28411. PwC. 2015. The Sharing Economy.12. Tor Wallin Andreassen, Line Lervik-Olsen, Hannah Snyder, Allard van Riel, (2018). Business Model Innovation and Value-creation: The Triadic Way. Journal of Service Manangement.13. Will Gornall, Ilya A. Strebulaev, (2017). Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality. Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 135, Issue 1, Pages 120-14314. The Unicorn Bubble Is Bursting. Retrieved October 7, 2019, from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/10/07/the-unicorn-bubble-is-bursting/15. Uber 2017-2018 US Safety Report. Retrieved December 5, 2019, from: https://www.uber-assets.com/image/upload/v1575580686/Documents/Safety/UberUSSafetyReport_201718_FullReport.pdf16. Uber and the labor market. Retrieved May 15, 2018, from: https://www.epi.org/publication/uber-and-the-labor-market-uber-drivers-compensation-wages-and-the-scale-of-uber-and-the-gig-economy/17. Unicorn Leaderboard. Retrieved December, 2019, from: https://techcrunch.com/unicorn-leaderboard/18. Uber S-1 filing & Annual Report.19. Welcome to The Unicorn Club: Learning from Billion-Dollar Startups. Retrieved November 3, 2013, from: https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/02/welcome-to-the-unicorn-club/ | zh_TW |
| dc.identifier.doi (DOI) | 10.6814/NCCU202001521 | en_US |
