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題名 估計脫歐公投對英國經濟的影響:來自合成控制法的證據
Estimating Brexit-effects on UK’s economic growth: A synthetic control approach
作者 羅曼斯
Roggmann, Matthias
貢獻者 楊子霆
Yang, Tzu-Ting
羅曼斯
Matthias Roggmann
關鍵詞 英國脫歐
英國
歐洲聯盟
合成控制法
經濟增長
國內生產總值
Brexit
UK
EU
Synthetic control method
Economic growth
GDP
日期 2020
上傳時間 2-Sep-2020 13:21:11 (UTC+8)
摘要 This paper analyzes if the decision by the British electorate to leave the European Union had causal
effects on the UK’s economic growth, in particular on the UK’s GDP growth rate as well as the growth rate of different economic sectors. By assuming that Brexit fulfils the conditions of a natural experiment, the synthetic control method is applied, which compares the British GDP growth with a weighted average of countries with similar GDP growth over time. Results imply that Brexit
caused losses in accumulated GDP growth between 5.64% and 8.11% by the end of 2019. A decomposition into individual economic sectors could show, that this output gap is largely caused by a 21.45% loss within the financial and insurance activities. The results hold valid for several
sensitivity and robustness checks and are in accordance with economic theory as well as previous empirical findings. Thereby, this paper contributes to the academic literature by quantifying post-Brexit effects for the British economy and by delivering further evidence about the disadvantages of leaving international trade agreements.
參考文獻 Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490):493–505.
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2011). Synth: An R package for synthetic control methods in comparative case studies. Journal of Statistical Software, 42(13).
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2):495–510.
Abadie, A. and Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93(1):113–132.
Becker, S. O., Fetzer, T., and Novy, D. (2017). Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive districtlevel analysis. Economic Policy, 32(92):601–650.
Belke, A., Dubova, I., and Osowski, T. (2018). Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: The case of Brexit. Applied Economics, 50(34-35):3752–3770.
Bertelsmann Stiftung (2015). Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union.
Bhambra, G. K. (2017). Brexit, Trump, and ‘methodological whiteness’: On the misrecognition of race and class. The British Journal of Sociology, 68:214–232.
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3):623–685.
Born, B., M¨uller, G. J., Schularick, M., and Sedl´aˇcek, P. (2019). The costs of economic nationalism:
Evidence from the Brexit experiment. The Economic Journal, 129(623):2722–2744.
Botosaru, I. and Ferman, B. (2019). On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method. The
Econometrics Journal, 22(2):117–130.
Bouoiyour, J. and Selmi, R. (2018). Are UK industries resilient in dealing with uncertainty? The case of Brexit. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 15(2):277–292.
Breinlich, H., Leromain, E., Novy, D., and Sampson, T. (2020). Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms. European Economic Review, 124:103400.
Campos, N. F., Coricelli, F., and Moretti, L. (2014). Economic growth and political integration:
Estimating the benefits from membership in the European Union using the synthetic counterfactuals method. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 8162.
DiNardo, J. (2010). Natural experiments and quasi-natural experiments. In Microeconometrics, pages 139–153. Springer.
Douch, M., Edwards, T. H., and Soegaard, C. (2018). The trade effects of the Brexit announcement shock. Warwick Economics Research Papers, 1176.

Fetzer, T. (2019). Did austerity cause Brexit? American Economic Review, 109(11):3849–86.
Greater London Authority (2018). EU Referendum Results. Online available at:
https://data.gov.uk/dataset/be2f2aec-11d8-4bfe-9800-649e5b8ec044/eu-referendum-results.
(accessed: 2020/06/03).
HM Government (2016). HM treasury analysis: The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives.
Hughes, C. (2019). It’s the EU immigrants stupid! UKIP’s core-issue and populist rhetoric on the road to Brexit. European Journal of Communication, 34(3):248–266.
IMF (2016). United Kingdom. Selected issues. IMF Country Report No. 16/169.
Inglehart, R. F. and Norris, P. (2016). Trump, Brexit, and the rise of populism: Economic have-nots and cultural backlash. HKS Working Paper No. RWP16-026.
Kaul, A., Kl¨oßner, S., Pfeifer, G., and Schieler, M. (2015). Synthetic control methods: Never use all pre-intervention outcomes together with covariates. Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
Leyland, C. (2019). Old words, new words, EU words: Brexit and the OED. Online available at:
https://public.oed.com/blog/brexit-and-the-oed/. (accessed: 2020/06/03).
McClelland, R. and Gault, S. (2017). The synthetic control method as a tool to understand state policy. Washington, DC: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
Minford, P. (2016). Brexit and trade: What are the options? The Economy after Brexit, pages 13–15.
OECD (2016). The consequences of Brexit: A taxing decision. OECD Economic Policy Paper No. 16.
Oxford Economics (2016). Assessing the economic implications of Brexit.
PwC (2016). Leaving the EU: Implications for the UK economy.
Saia, A. (2017). Choosing the open sea: The cost to the UK of staying out of the Euro. Journal of International Economics, 108:82–98.
Serwicka, I. and Tamberi, N. (2018). Not backing Britain: FDI inflows since the Brexit referendum. UK Trade Policy Observatory Briefing Paper, 23.
Welfens, P. J. (2017). An accidental Brexit: New EU and transatlantic economic perspectives. Springer.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
107266008
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266008
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 楊子霆zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yang, Tzu-Tingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 羅曼斯zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Matthias Roggmannen_US
dc.creator (作者) 羅曼斯zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Roggmann, Matthiasen_US
dc.date (日期) 2020en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2020 13:21:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Sep-2020 13:21:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2020 13:21:11 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107266008en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131970-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 107266008zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper analyzes if the decision by the British electorate to leave the European Union had causal
effects on the UK’s economic growth, in particular on the UK’s GDP growth rate as well as the growth rate of different economic sectors. By assuming that Brexit fulfils the conditions of a natural experiment, the synthetic control method is applied, which compares the British GDP growth with a weighted average of countries with similar GDP growth over time. Results imply that Brexit
caused losses in accumulated GDP growth between 5.64% and 8.11% by the end of 2019. A decomposition into individual economic sectors could show, that this output gap is largely caused by a 21.45% loss within the financial and insurance activities. The results hold valid for several
sensitivity and robustness checks and are in accordance with economic theory as well as previous empirical findings. Thereby, this paper contributes to the academic literature by quantifying post-Brexit effects for the British economy and by delivering further evidence about the disadvantages of leaving international trade agreements.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 1
2 Background of Brexit 3
...2.1 A timeline of Brexit 3
...2.2 Analysis of the Brexit referendum 4
3 Literature review 8
...3.1 Brexit from a macroeconomic perspective 8
...3.2 Brexit as a natural experiment 10
...3.3 Empirical findings of Brexit-effects 11
4 Methodology 13
...4.1 Data source 13
...4.2 Variables: Description, treatment assignment & distribution 13
...4.3 Empirical approach: The synthetic control method 16
5 Synthetic control results 19
...5.1 Brexit-effects on overall economy (GDP) 19
......5.1.1 Main Results - GDP (unrestricted sample) 19
......5.1.2 Main results - GDP (restricted sample) 22
......5.1.3 Robustness checks - GDP (restricted sample) 24
...5.2 Brexit-effects on service sector growth 27
......5.2.1 Main results - service sector28
......5.2.2 Robustness checks - service sector 29
......5.2.3 Main results - service sector decomposition 31
......5.2.4 Robustness checks - financial & insurance activities 35
...5.3 Brexit-effects on other sectors 37
6 Conclusion 40
...6.1 Summary of findings 40
...6.2 Contributions & limitations 42
...6.3 Future outlook on Brexit research 43
References 44
A Appendix – Graphs 46
B Appendix – Tables 49		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266008en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 英國脫歐zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 英國zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 歐洲聯盟zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成控制法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟增長zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國內生產總值zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Brexiten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) UKen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) EUen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Synthetic control methoden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic growthen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) GDPen_US
dc.title (題名) 估計脫歐公投對英國經濟的影響:來自合成控制法的證據zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Estimating Brexit-effects on UK’s economic growth: A synthetic control approachen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490):493–505.
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2011). Synth: An R package for synthetic control methods in comparative case studies. Journal of Statistical Software, 42(13).
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2):495–510.
Abadie, A. and Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93(1):113–132.
Becker, S. O., Fetzer, T., and Novy, D. (2017). Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive districtlevel analysis. Economic Policy, 32(92):601–650.
Belke, A., Dubova, I., and Osowski, T. (2018). Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: The case of Brexit. Applied Economics, 50(34-35):3752–3770.
Bertelsmann Stiftung (2015). Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union.
Bhambra, G. K. (2017). Brexit, Trump, and ‘methodological whiteness’: On the misrecognition of race and class. The British Journal of Sociology, 68:214–232.
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3):623–685.
Born, B., M¨uller, G. J., Schularick, M., and Sedl´aˇcek, P. (2019). The costs of economic nationalism:
Evidence from the Brexit experiment. The Economic Journal, 129(623):2722–2744.
Botosaru, I. and Ferman, B. (2019). On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method. The
Econometrics Journal, 22(2):117–130.
Bouoiyour, J. and Selmi, R. (2018). Are UK industries resilient in dealing with uncertainty? The case of Brexit. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 15(2):277–292.
Breinlich, H., Leromain, E., Novy, D., and Sampson, T. (2020). Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms. European Economic Review, 124:103400.
Campos, N. F., Coricelli, F., and Moretti, L. (2014). Economic growth and political integration:
Estimating the benefits from membership in the European Union using the synthetic counterfactuals method. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 8162.
DiNardo, J. (2010). Natural experiments and quasi-natural experiments. In Microeconometrics, pages 139–153. Springer.
Douch, M., Edwards, T. H., and Soegaard, C. (2018). The trade effects of the Brexit announcement shock. Warwick Economics Research Papers, 1176.

Fetzer, T. (2019). Did austerity cause Brexit? American Economic Review, 109(11):3849–86.
Greater London Authority (2018). EU Referendum Results. Online available at:
https://data.gov.uk/dataset/be2f2aec-11d8-4bfe-9800-649e5b8ec044/eu-referendum-results.
(accessed: 2020/06/03).
HM Government (2016). HM treasury analysis: The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives.
Hughes, C. (2019). It’s the EU immigrants stupid! UKIP’s core-issue and populist rhetoric on the road to Brexit. European Journal of Communication, 34(3):248–266.
IMF (2016). United Kingdom. Selected issues. IMF Country Report No. 16/169.
Inglehart, R. F. and Norris, P. (2016). Trump, Brexit, and the rise of populism: Economic have-nots and cultural backlash. HKS Working Paper No. RWP16-026.
Kaul, A., Kl¨oßner, S., Pfeifer, G., and Schieler, M. (2015). Synthetic control methods: Never use all pre-intervention outcomes together with covariates. Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
Leyland, C. (2019). Old words, new words, EU words: Brexit and the OED. Online available at:
https://public.oed.com/blog/brexit-and-the-oed/. (accessed: 2020/06/03).
McClelland, R. and Gault, S. (2017). The synthetic control method as a tool to understand state policy. Washington, DC: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
Minford, P. (2016). Brexit and trade: What are the options? The Economy after Brexit, pages 13–15.
OECD (2016). The consequences of Brexit: A taxing decision. OECD Economic Policy Paper No. 16.
Oxford Economics (2016). Assessing the economic implications of Brexit.
PwC (2016). Leaving the EU: Implications for the UK economy.
Saia, A. (2017). Choosing the open sea: The cost to the UK of staying out of the Euro. Journal of International Economics, 108:82–98.
Serwicka, I. and Tamberi, N. (2018). Not backing Britain: FDI inflows since the Brexit referendum. UK Trade Policy Observatory Briefing Paper, 23.
Welfens, P. J. (2017). An accidental Brexit: New EU and transatlantic economic perspectives. Springer.		zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202001491en_US