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| Title | Modeling Housing Price Dynamics and Their Impact on the Cost of No-Negative-Equity- Guarantees for Equity Releasing Products |
| Creator | 楊曉文 Yangb, Sharon S. Chang , Chuang-Chang Huang, Jr-Wei |
| Contributor | 金融系 |
| Key Words | NNEGs ; Equity-releasing products ; House Price returns ; Conditional Esscher transform |
| Date | 2020-06 |
| Date Issued | 2021-01-28 |
| Summary | We investigate model risk in pricing no-negative-equity guarantees (NNEGs) with the aim of identifying the housing risks involved in equity-release products. To analyze the regional and local effect in the house price modeling, we evaluate different models using the house price index (HPI) based on the cities of London, Manchester and Coventry and the UK nationwide HPI respectively. The ARMA-GARCH jump model that can capture the characteristics of jump persistence, autocorrelation and volatility clustering are proposed according to the model fittings. To investigate the model risk on the cost of NNEGs, we then derive the risk-neutral valuation framework using the conditional Esscher transform technique (Bühlmann et al. 1996). Our numerical analyses reveal that the housing model risk affects the costs of NNEGs significantly. In addition, the cost of NNEGs is significantly different for different cities due to localized effect. Therefore, the basis risk is large enough to matter when pricing NNEGs. |
| Relation | Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics |
| Type | article |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-020-09776-3 |
| dc.contributor | 金融系 | |
| dc.creator (作者) | 楊曉文 | |
| dc.creator (作者) | Yangb, Sharon S. | |
| dc.creator (作者) | Chang , Chuang-Chang | |
| dc.creator (作者) | Huang, Jr-Wei | |
| dc.date (日期) | 2020-06 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-28 | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-01-28 | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 2021-01-28 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/133816 | - |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | We investigate model risk in pricing no-negative-equity guarantees (NNEGs) with the aim of identifying the housing risks involved in equity-release products. To analyze the regional and local effect in the house price modeling, we evaluate different models using the house price index (HPI) based on the cities of London, Manchester and Coventry and the UK nationwide HPI respectively. The ARMA-GARCH jump model that can capture the characteristics of jump persistence, autocorrelation and volatility clustering are proposed according to the model fittings. To investigate the model risk on the cost of NNEGs, we then derive the risk-neutral valuation framework using the conditional Esscher transform technique (Bühlmann et al. 1996). Our numerical analyses reveal that the housing model risk affects the costs of NNEGs significantly. In addition, the cost of NNEGs is significantly different for different cities due to localized effect. Therefore, the basis risk is large enough to matter when pricing NNEGs. | |
| dc.format.extent | 1037880 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.relation (關聯) | Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics | |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | NNEGs ; Equity-releasing products ; House Price returns ; Conditional Esscher transform | |
| dc.title (題名) | Modeling Housing Price Dynamics and Their Impact on the Cost of No-Negative-Equity- Guarantees for Equity Releasing Products | |
| dc.type (資料類型) | article | |
| dc.identifier.doi (DOI) | 10.1007/s11146-020-09776-3 | |
| dc.doi.uri (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-020-09776-3 |