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題名 中國汽車限購政策對新能源汽車市場份額的影響—以差中差法進行研究
The impact of the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy on market share of new energy vehicles in China – Estimation under the difference-in-differences method作者 李浩宇
Lee, Hao-Yu貢獻者 胡偉民
Hu, Wei-Min
李浩宇
Lee, Hao-Yu關鍵詞 汽車限購政策
新能源汽車
Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy
New Energy Vehicles日期 2021 上傳時間 1-Apr-2021 11:27:55 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著中國經濟的快速成長,消費者對購買汽車的需求也跟著增加,衍生出嚴重的交通擁堵和空氣污染問題。為解決這些問題,上海於1994年率先實施了《汽車限購政策》,期望能控制每個月新登錄的汽車數量。此後,許多中國一線城市也陸陸續續於2010年至2014年期間出台了汽車限購法規。然而,雖然政策實施最初的目的是在控制汽車數量,但再後來卻也被認為是促進新能源汽車發展的關鍵推力之一。本研究搜集了2011年1月至2015年12月間的中國月登陸新增車輛數據。並且採用“差中差”法進行研究,選擇北京,貴陽,廣州,天津,杭州,以深圳六個汽車限購城市作為為實驗組,而其他所有非限制城市為對照組,旨在驗證汽車限購政策確實能為新能源汽車的市場帶來幫助。實驗結果顯示,在政策實施後,實驗組的新能源汽車銷售份額成長顯著的高於對照組的汽車銷售份額成長,證實汽車限購政策確實對推動新能源汽車的市場有正面的影響,特別是在插電式混合動力汽車的效果更為明顯。另外,透過觀察政策實施後一段時間的政策效果還可以發現,該政策的長期效果會比其短期效果來的更理想。
In China, the rapid economic growth brought a huge traffic demand, resulting in traffic congestion and air pollution problems. For dealing with these problems, Shanghai first implemented the “Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy” to control the number of newly registered cars in 1994. Afterward, many cities also introduced the regulations one after another during the period between 2010 and 2014. However, apart from its initial purpose of controlling the number of cars, the policy was later considered also to be one of the critical forces in promoting the development of new energy vehicles.This paper collects the monthly new registered vehicles data in China dated from January 2011 to December 2015, then selects six restricted cities, Beijing, Guiyang, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as the treatment group and all the other non-restricted cities as the control group. By adopting the “Difference-in-Differences” method, this paper aims to verify whether the policy really impacts the NEVs market. The results turn out that after the implementation of the policy, the growth of the market share of new energy vehicles in the treatment cities is significantly higher than that of in the control cities, which means that the policy does positively affect the market of the NEVs, especially in the plug-in hybrid electric vehicles sector. Furthermore, when observing the overtime effect after the policy is implemented, it can also be found that the long-term effect of the policy is greater than its short-term effect.參考文獻 Angrist, J. D., and Pischke, J. S., 2008. Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist`s companion. s.l., Princeton university press.Beck, T., Levine, R., and Levkov, A., 2010. Big bad banks? The winners and losers from bank deregulation in the United States. The Journal of Finance, 65(5), pp. 1637-1667.Card, D. and Krueger, A. B., 1994. Minimum wages and employment: a case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The American Economic, 8(44), pp. 772–793.Chen, X., 2014. An economic analysis of auto purchase restrictions. Shanghai Auto, Volume 4, pp. 29-32.Egami, N., and Yamauchi, S., 2019. How to improve the difference-in-differences design with multiple pre-treatment periods. [Online]Available at: https://scholar. princeton. edu/sites/default/files/negami/files/double_did. PdfEnergy Information Administration (US), 2012, ed. Annual Energy Outlook 2012: With Projections to 2035. Government Printing Office.Feng, S. W., Li, Q., and Xu, D., 2012. The private car license plate auction in Shanghai: macro- effectiveness and micro-mechanisms. In CICTP 2012: Multimodal Transportation Systems— Convenient, Safe, Cost-Effective, Efficient, pp. 118-129.Fredriksson, A. and de Oliveira, G. M., 2019. Impact evaluation using Difference-in-Differences. RAUSP Management Journal, 54(4), pp.519-532.Gong, H., Wang, M. Q., and Wang, H., 2013. New energy vehicles in China: policies, demonstration, and progress. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18(2), pp. 207–228.Guo, K., Zhang, J., Li, J. J., and Du, J. L., 2014. The new trend of purchase restrictions will boost the development of new energy vehicles. Car Aspect, Issue 39.Hao, H., Wang, H., and Ouyang, M., 2010. Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles. Energy Policy, Volume 39, pp. 1016-1021.Huo H., Zhang Q., Wang M., Streets D., and He K. B., 2010. Environmental Implication of Electric Vehicles in China. Environmental Science & Technology, 44(13), pp. 4856–4861.Koh, W. T. and Lee, D. K., 1994. The vehicle quota system in Singapore: an assessment. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 28(1), pp. 31-47.Liu, F., Zhao, F., Liu, Z., and Hao, H., 2020. The Impact of Purchase Restriction Policy on Car Ownership in China’s Four Major Cities. Journal of Advanced Transportation, pp. 1-14.Ma, S. C., Fan, Y., and Feng, L., 2017. An evaluation of government incentives for new energy vehicles in China focusing on vehicle purchasing restrictions. Energy Policy, Volume 110, pp. 609-618.Olszewski, P. and Turner, D. J., 1993. New methods of controlling vehicle ownership and usage in Singapore. Transportation, 20(4), pp. 355-371.Snow, J., 1855. On the mode of communication of cholera. John Churchill.Tan, R., Tang, D., and Lin, B., 2018. Policy impact of new energy vehicles promotion on air quality in Chinese cities. Energy Policy, Volume 118, pp. 33-40.Tang, B. J., Wang, X. Y., and Wang, B., 2019. Analysis and Prospect of China`s New Energy Vehicles Industry Development Level. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 21(2), pp. 6-11.Wang, L., Fu, Z. L., Guo, W., Liang, R. Y., and Shao, H. Y., 2020. What influences sales market of new energy vehicles in China? Empirical study based on survey of consumers’ purchase reasons. Energy Policy, Volume 142, 111484.Wang, N., Pan, H., and Zheng, W., 2017. Assessment of the incentives on electric vehicle promotion in China. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 101, pp. 177- 189.Wang, Y., Teter, J., and Sperling, D., 2011. China’s soaring vehicle population: even greater than forecasted?. Energy Policy, 39(6), pp. 3296-3306.Wang, Z., Zhao, C., Yin, J., and Zhang, B., 2017. Purchasing intentions of Chinese citizens on new energy vehicles: How should one respond to current preferential policy?. Journal of Cleaner Production, Issue 161, pp. 1000-1010.Wang, T. Y., 2017. The impact of the automobile purchase limit policy in Beijing on the sales of Self-owned brand automobiles. National ChengChi University, Thesis.Wooldridge, J., 2007. What’s new in econometrics? Lecture 10 difference-in-differences estimation. NBER Summer Institute. [Online]Available at: www. nber. org/WNE/Slides7–31–07/slides_10_diffindiffs. PdfYang, J., Liu, Y., Qin, P., and Liu, A. A., 2014. A review of Beijing׳ s vehicle registration lottery: Short-term effects on vehicle growth and fuel consumption. Energy Policy, Volume 75, pp. .157-166 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
106266006資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106266006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 胡偉民 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hu, Wei-Min en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李浩宇 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lee, Hao-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 李浩宇 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lee, Hao-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Apr-2021 11:27:55 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Apr-2021 11:27:55 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Apr-2021 11:27:55 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106266006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/134458 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106266006 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著中國經濟的快速成長,消費者對購買汽車的需求也跟著增加,衍生出嚴重的交通擁堵和空氣污染問題。為解決這些問題,上海於1994年率先實施了《汽車限購政策》,期望能控制每個月新登錄的汽車數量。此後,許多中國一線城市也陸陸續續於2010年至2014年期間出台了汽車限購法規。然而,雖然政策實施最初的目的是在控制汽車數量,但再後來卻也被認為是促進新能源汽車發展的關鍵推力之一。本研究搜集了2011年1月至2015年12月間的中國月登陸新增車輛數據。並且採用“差中差”法進行研究,選擇北京,貴陽,廣州,天津,杭州,以深圳六個汽車限購城市作為為實驗組,而其他所有非限制城市為對照組,旨在驗證汽車限購政策確實能為新能源汽車的市場帶來幫助。實驗結果顯示,在政策實施後,實驗組的新能源汽車銷售份額成長顯著的高於對照組的汽車銷售份額成長,證實汽車限購政策確實對推動新能源汽車的市場有正面的影響,特別是在插電式混合動力汽車的效果更為明顯。另外,透過觀察政策實施後一段時間的政策效果還可以發現,該政策的長期效果會比其短期效果來的更理想。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In China, the rapid economic growth brought a huge traffic demand, resulting in traffic congestion and air pollution problems. For dealing with these problems, Shanghai first implemented the “Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy” to control the number of newly registered cars in 1994. Afterward, many cities also introduced the regulations one after another during the period between 2010 and 2014. However, apart from its initial purpose of controlling the number of cars, the policy was later considered also to be one of the critical forces in promoting the development of new energy vehicles.This paper collects the monthly new registered vehicles data in China dated from January 2011 to December 2015, then selects six restricted cities, Beijing, Guiyang, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as the treatment group and all the other non-restricted cities as the control group. By adopting the “Difference-in-Differences” method, this paper aims to verify whether the policy really impacts the NEVs market. The results turn out that after the implementation of the policy, the growth of the market share of new energy vehicles in the treatment cities is significantly higher than that of in the control cities, which means that the policy does positively affect the market of the NEVs, especially in the plug-in hybrid electric vehicles sector. Furthermore, when observing the overtime effect after the policy is implemented, it can also be found that the long-term effect of the policy is greater than its short-term effect. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Table of Contents1. Introduction 11.1 Background 11.2 Car Purchase Restriction Policy 21.3 Research Motivation and Purpose 51.4 Framework 62. Literature Review 72.1 The Review of Car Purchase Restriction Policy 72.2 The Review of Difference in Differences 93. Data and Research Method 123.1 Data Sources 123.2 Descriptive Statistic 133.3 Variables 173.3.1 Dependent variable 173.3.2 Explanatory variables 173.4 Research Design 183.4.1 Difference in Differences 183.4.2 Average treatment effect on the treated 204. Results 215. Conclusion 30References 32List of Tables and FiguresTable 1. Automobile Purchase Restricted Cities 4Table 2. The annual market share of BEVs and PHEVs in restricted cities and non-restricted cities in China from 2010 to 2015 16Table 3. The impact of the automobile purchase restriction policy on the market share of new energy vehicles 23Table 4. The overtime impact of the automobile purchase restriction policy on the market share of battery electric vehicles in each restricted city 23Table 5. The overtime impact of the automobile purchase restriction policy on the market share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in each restricted city 26Figure 1. The annual sales and market share of BEVs and PHEVs in China from 2010 to 2015 14Figure 2. The overtime market share changes of BEVs in restricted cities and non-restricted cities from 2010 to 2015 15Figure 3. The overtime market share changes of PHEVs in restricted cities and non-restricted cities from 2010 to 2015 16 zh_TW dc.format.extent 747087 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106266006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 汽車限購政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新能源汽車 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) New Energy Vehicles en_US dc.title (題名) 中國汽車限購政策對新能源汽車市場份額的影響—以差中差法進行研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The impact of the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy on market share of new energy vehicles in China – Estimation under the difference-in-differences method en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Angrist, J. D., and Pischke, J. S., 2008. Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist`s companion. s.l., Princeton university press.Beck, T., Levine, R., and Levkov, A., 2010. Big bad banks? The winners and losers from bank deregulation in the United States. The Journal of Finance, 65(5), pp. 1637-1667.Card, D. and Krueger, A. B., 1994. Minimum wages and employment: a case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The American Economic, 8(44), pp. 772–793.Chen, X., 2014. An economic analysis of auto purchase restrictions. Shanghai Auto, Volume 4, pp. 29-32.Egami, N., and Yamauchi, S., 2019. How to improve the difference-in-differences design with multiple pre-treatment periods. [Online]Available at: https://scholar. princeton. edu/sites/default/files/negami/files/double_did. PdfEnergy Information Administration (US), 2012, ed. Annual Energy Outlook 2012: With Projections to 2035. Government Printing Office.Feng, S. W., Li, Q., and Xu, D., 2012. The private car license plate auction in Shanghai: macro- effectiveness and micro-mechanisms. In CICTP 2012: Multimodal Transportation Systems— Convenient, Safe, Cost-Effective, Efficient, pp. 118-129.Fredriksson, A. and de Oliveira, G. M., 2019. Impact evaluation using Difference-in-Differences. RAUSP Management Journal, 54(4), pp.519-532.Gong, H., Wang, M. Q., and Wang, H., 2013. New energy vehicles in China: policies, demonstration, and progress. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18(2), pp. 207–228.Guo, K., Zhang, J., Li, J. J., and Du, J. L., 2014. The new trend of purchase restrictions will boost the development of new energy vehicles. Car Aspect, Issue 39.Hao, H., Wang, H., and Ouyang, M., 2010. Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles. Energy Policy, Volume 39, pp. 1016-1021.Huo H., Zhang Q., Wang M., Streets D., and He K. B., 2010. Environmental Implication of Electric Vehicles in China. Environmental Science & Technology, 44(13), pp. 4856–4861.Koh, W. T. and Lee, D. K., 1994. The vehicle quota system in Singapore: an assessment. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 28(1), pp. 31-47.Liu, F., Zhao, F., Liu, Z., and Hao, H., 2020. The Impact of Purchase Restriction Policy on Car Ownership in China’s Four Major Cities. Journal of Advanced Transportation, pp. 1-14.Ma, S. C., Fan, Y., and Feng, L., 2017. An evaluation of government incentives for new energy vehicles in China focusing on vehicle purchasing restrictions. Energy Policy, Volume 110, pp. 609-618.Olszewski, P. and Turner, D. J., 1993. New methods of controlling vehicle ownership and usage in Singapore. Transportation, 20(4), pp. 355-371.Snow, J., 1855. On the mode of communication of cholera. John Churchill.Tan, R., Tang, D., and Lin, B., 2018. Policy impact of new energy vehicles promotion on air quality in Chinese cities. Energy Policy, Volume 118, pp. 33-40.Tang, B. J., Wang, X. Y., and Wang, B., 2019. Analysis and Prospect of China`s New Energy Vehicles Industry Development Level. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 21(2), pp. 6-11.Wang, L., Fu, Z. L., Guo, W., Liang, R. Y., and Shao, H. Y., 2020. What influences sales market of new energy vehicles in China? Empirical study based on survey of consumers’ purchase reasons. Energy Policy, Volume 142, 111484.Wang, N., Pan, H., and Zheng, W., 2017. Assessment of the incentives on electric vehicle promotion in China. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 101, pp. 177- 189.Wang, Y., Teter, J., and Sperling, D., 2011. China’s soaring vehicle population: even greater than forecasted?. Energy Policy, 39(6), pp. 3296-3306.Wang, Z., Zhao, C., Yin, J., and Zhang, B., 2017. Purchasing intentions of Chinese citizens on new energy vehicles: How should one respond to current preferential policy?. Journal of Cleaner Production, Issue 161, pp. 1000-1010.Wang, T. Y., 2017. The impact of the automobile purchase limit policy in Beijing on the sales of Self-owned brand automobiles. National ChengChi University, Thesis.Wooldridge, J., 2007. What’s new in econometrics? Lecture 10 difference-in-differences estimation. NBER Summer Institute. [Online]Available at: www. nber. org/WNE/Slides7–31–07/slides_10_diffindiffs. PdfYang, J., Liu, Y., Qin, P., and Liu, A. A., 2014. A review of Beijing׳ s vehicle registration lottery: Short-term effects on vehicle growth and fuel consumption. Energy Policy, Volume 75, pp. .157-166 zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100405 en_US