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題名 Can risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis subsume the information content of historical jumps?
作者 許永明
Yung-Ming Shiu
Ging-Ginq Pan
Tu-Cheng Wu
貢獻者 風管系
關鍵詞 Volatility forecasting ; Risk-neutral moments ; Jumps
日期 2022-01
上傳時間 25-May-2021 11:50:50 (UTC+8)
摘要 We examine the relation between jump variations and risk-neutral moments in volatility forecasting. We propose a method that involves no extrapolation in computing the risk-neutral moments of Bakshi et al. (2003) and document that risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis subsume the information content of historical jumps. While historical jumps have significant explanatory power for future volatility and such power is actually not weakened by the inclusion of risk-neutral volatility in models, their predictability does disappear when risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis are included.
關聯 Journal of Financial Markets, Vol.57, pp.1-15
資料類型 article
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2020.100614
dc.contributor 風管系-
dc.creator (作者) 許永明-
dc.creator (作者) Yung-Ming Shiu-
dc.creator (作者) Ging-Ginq Pan-
dc.creator (作者) Tu-Cheng Wu-
dc.date (日期) 2022-01-
dc.date.accessioned 25-May-2021 11:50:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 25-May-2021 11:50:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 25-May-2021 11:50:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/135115-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) We examine the relation between jump variations and risk-neutral moments in volatility forecasting. We propose a method that involves no extrapolation in computing the risk-neutral moments of Bakshi et al. (2003) and document that risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis subsume the information content of historical jumps. While historical jumps have significant explanatory power for future volatility and such power is actually not weakened by the inclusion of risk-neutral volatility in models, their predictability does disappear when risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis are included.-
dc.format.extent 559358 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Journal of Financial Markets, Vol.57, pp.1-15-
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Volatility forecasting ; Risk-neutral moments ; Jumps-
dc.title (題名) Can risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis subsume the information content of historical jumps?-
dc.type (資料類型) article-
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1016/j.finmar.2020.100614-
dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2020.100614-