Publications-Periodical Articles

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 Examining the `Referendum Theory` in Taiwan’s Local Elections
作者 俞振華
Yu, Eric Chen-hua
貢獻者 選研中心
關鍵詞 Local elections ; midterm elections ; referendum theory ; government performance ; approval rating ; incumbency
日期 2020-08
上傳時間 27-May-2021 14:35:43 (UTC+8)
摘要 This paper analyzes the extent to which the performances of local and national governments can shape local election outcomes. Specifically, we use various waves of survey data from Taiwan’s Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether a person’s assessments of local and central government performances affect his/her vote for the incumbent party candidate. Our empirical findings partially verify the so-called “referendum theory” and can be summarized as follows: First, voters who hold a positive assessment of the performance of local government are more likely to vote for an incumbent who seeks reelection, but this is not necessarily the case for an incumbent party candidate in an open-seat contest. Second, Taiwan’s local elections cannot be regarded as referenda on the central government because the central government approval rating does not consistently affect vote choices across different types/levels of local elections.
關聯 Journal of Asian and African Studies
資料類型 article
DOI https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0021909620966769
dc.contributor 選研中心
dc.creator (作者) 俞振華
dc.creator (作者) Yu, Eric Chen-hua
dc.date (日期) 2020-08
dc.date.accessioned 27-May-2021 14:35:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 27-May-2021 14:35:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 27-May-2021 14:35:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/135236-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper analyzes the extent to which the performances of local and national governments can shape local election outcomes. Specifically, we use various waves of survey data from Taiwan’s Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether a person’s assessments of local and central government performances affect his/her vote for the incumbent party candidate. Our empirical findings partially verify the so-called “referendum theory” and can be summarized as follows: First, voters who hold a positive assessment of the performance of local government are more likely to vote for an incumbent who seeks reelection, but this is not necessarily the case for an incumbent party candidate in an open-seat contest. Second, Taiwan’s local elections cannot be regarded as referenda on the central government because the central government approval rating does not consistently affect vote choices across different types/levels of local elections.
dc.format.extent 542026 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Journal of Asian and African Studies
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Local elections ; midterm elections ; referendum theory ; government performance ; approval rating ; incumbency
dc.title (題名) Examining the `Referendum Theory` in Taiwan’s Local Elections
dc.type (資料類型) article
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1177%2F0021909620966769
dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0021909620966769