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題名 The Effect of China Factor on Taiwan’s Elections: How Has It Changed across Generations from 2008 to 2014
作者 陳陸輝
Chen, Lu-Huei
Weng, Dennis Lu-Chung
Wang, Ching-Hsing
貢獻者 選研中心
關鍵詞 China factor ; Generational difference ; Issue voting ; Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) ; Taiwan election
日期 2020-11
上傳時間 27-May-2021 14:36:04 (UTC+8)
摘要 Purpose The main purpose of this study is to reveal how the China factor influences Taiwan voters` evaluations of the two major parties across elections and generations. We contend that 1) elderly Taiwan voters may take the China factor more seriously than younger cohorts, and 2) China factor may be weighted differently depending on the levels of elections. More importantly, we argue that the China factor is tangled with voters` partisanship. Design/methodology/approach Data gathered from 2008 to 2014 Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) enable in investigating the influence of the China factor on Taiwan people`s vote choices in the two local and two presidential elections. To answer the research question, this study applies issue voting theory and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) employed for empirical investigations. Findings The findings of this study provide empirical evidence on how political generations have changed their reactions to China in Taiwan`s elections. The fundamental variables, party identification and the China issue are still very important and cannot be disregarded. Specifically, the China factor played a quite influential role in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters` voting decisions regardless of their generations, whereas its effect on the Kuomintang (KMT) supporters` voting decisions varies depending on electoral contexts and generations. Originality/value While some scholars might suspect that the single item is not sufficient to be an effective predictor of vote choice, we contend that the China factor is definitely the most significant component in Taiwan`s elections, especially when it is tangled with partisanship. The SUR approach in this study confirms that partisanship and the China factor cannot be viewed separately.
關聯 Asian Education and Development Studies
資料類型 article
dc.contributor 選研中心
dc.creator (作者) 陳陸輝
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Lu-Huei
dc.creator (作者) Weng, Dennis Lu-Chung
dc.creator (作者) Wang, Ching-Hsing
dc.date (日期) 2020-11
dc.date.accessioned 27-May-2021 14:36:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 27-May-2021 14:36:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 27-May-2021 14:36:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/135237-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Purpose The main purpose of this study is to reveal how the China factor influences Taiwan voters` evaluations of the two major parties across elections and generations. We contend that 1) elderly Taiwan voters may take the China factor more seriously than younger cohorts, and 2) China factor may be weighted differently depending on the levels of elections. More importantly, we argue that the China factor is tangled with voters` partisanship. Design/methodology/approach Data gathered from 2008 to 2014 Taiwan`s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) enable in investigating the influence of the China factor on Taiwan people`s vote choices in the two local and two presidential elections. To answer the research question, this study applies issue voting theory and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) employed for empirical investigations. Findings The findings of this study provide empirical evidence on how political generations have changed their reactions to China in Taiwan`s elections. The fundamental variables, party identification and the China issue are still very important and cannot be disregarded. Specifically, the China factor played a quite influential role in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters` voting decisions regardless of their generations, whereas its effect on the Kuomintang (KMT) supporters` voting decisions varies depending on electoral contexts and generations. Originality/value While some scholars might suspect that the single item is not sufficient to be an effective predictor of vote choice, we contend that the China factor is definitely the most significant component in Taiwan`s elections, especially when it is tangled with partisanship. The SUR approach in this study confirms that partisanship and the China factor cannot be viewed separately.
dc.format.extent 653125 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Asian Education and Development Studies
dc.subject (關鍵詞) China factor ; Generational difference ; Issue voting ; Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) ; Taiwan election
dc.title (題名) The Effect of China Factor on Taiwan’s Elections: How Has It Changed across Generations from 2008 to 2014
dc.type (資料類型) article