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題名 比較金融危機與新冠疫情下的美國經濟：股票與石油市場實證分析
The U.S. Economy during Financial Crisis and Coronavirus Pandemic: Evidence from the Stock and Oil Market作者 李姿萱
Lee, Tzu-Hsuan貢獻者 謝淑貞
Shieh, Shwu-Jane
李姿萱
Lee, Tzu-Hsuan關鍵詞 COVID-19
大流行病
向量自我迴歸模型
貨幣政策
量化寬鬆
COVID-19
Pandemic
VAR
Monetary policy
Unlimited QE日期 2021 上傳時間 1-Jun-2021 14:54:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文使用向量自我迴歸模型，研究近兩次重大金融危機──2008年金融海嘯與2020年新冠肺炎大流行期間，美國股票價格、布蘭特原油期貨價格、美國兩年期公債期貨價格、美國失業率和美國製造業採購經理人指數之間的相關性。研究結果顯示，1990年至2020年變數之間存在一些重要關係。其次，2008年金融海嘯期間，布蘭特原油期貨價格的變動與上期股票報酬率呈負相關，但兩者的相關性在2020年新冠肺炎大流行時為正相關。此外，該相關係數的絕對值在兩次危機期間皆大於長期趨勢。
We use Vector Auto-regression models to investigate the correlation between stock prices, crude oil futures prices, two-year T-Note futures prices, unemployment rate and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers` Index of the USA during the most recent devastating financial crises－the Financial Crisis of 2008 and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. First, we find a few significant relationships between variables for a period of 1990 to 2020. Second, changes in crude oil futures price was negatively related to previous stock returns in the Financial Crisis of 2008, but the correlation changed to positive in 2020. Furthermore, correlations between these two variables were higher in absolute value during two crises than long-term one.參考文獻 書籍Shiu-Sheng Chen. March 2013. Applied Time-Series Econometrics for Macroeconomics and Finance, 2nd Edition. Tung-Hua, Taipei.期刊論文Anjan V. Thakor. 2015. The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009: Why Did It Happen and What Did We Learn?, The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Volume 4, Issue 2, September 2015, 155–205.Ashraf B. N. 2020. Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets. Journal of behavioral and experimental finance, 27, 100371. doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100371.Bentour, El Mostafa. January 15, 2015. A Ranking of VAR and Structural Models in Forecasting. MPRA Paper No. 61502.David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent H. Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas B. Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka and Greg Thwaites. 2020. Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic. NBER Working Paper No. 27418.Dave Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites. November, 2020. Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, Volume 191, 104274. Available at Science Direct: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272720301389.J.D. Hamilton. Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy 91 (1983), 228-248Fernandes, Nuno. March 22, 2020. Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy. IESE Business School Working Paper No. WP-1240-E, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3557504 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504. Gao Shangqua. 2000. Economic Globalization: Trends, Risks and Risk Prevention. Economic & Social Affairs CDP Background Paper No. 1.Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber. 2020. The Cost of the COVID-19Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending. NBER Working Paper 27141.Scott R Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon, Tasaneeya Viratyosin. 2020. The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19. NBER Working Paper No. 26945.Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Stephen J. Terry. 2020. COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty. NBER Working Paper No. 26983.Sumedha Gupta, Laura Montenovo, Thuy D. Nguyen, Felipe L. Rojas, Ian M. Schmutte, KosaliI. Simon, Bruce A. Weinberg and Coady Wing. 2020a. Effects of Social DistancingPolicy on Labor Markets. NBER Working Paper 27280.Willem Thorbecke. 2019. Oil prices and the U.S. economy: Evidence from the stock market. Journal of Macroeconomics 61(2019) 103137.Yudong Wang, Zhiyuan Pan, Li Liu, Chongfeng Wu. 2019. Oil price increases and the predictability of equity premium. Journal of Banking and Finance 102 (2019), 43-58.網際網路Baker Mckenzie. 2020. Beyond COVID-19: Supply Chain Resilience Holds Key to Recovery. Available at: https://www.bakermckenzie.com/-/media/files/insight/publications/2020/04/covid19-global-economy.pdf.Brian Beers. March 30, 2020. Why do investors use the S&P 500 as a benchmark? Available at Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041315/what-are-pros-and-cons-using-sp-500-benchmark.asp.Bernanke, B. 2016. The Relationship Between Stocks and Oil Prices. Web blog post. Ben Bernanke`s Blog.China NBS Manufacturing PMI. Available at Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence.Chang-Jin Kim (n.d.). Unit Root Tests. Available at University of Washington, Economics Web site: https://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/econ584/notes/unitroot.pdf.Eric Zivot, Jiahui Wang. 2006. Vector Autoregressive Models for Multivariate Time Series. In: Modeling Financial Time Series. S-PLUS®. Springer, New York, NY. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-32348-0_11.Employment in services (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate). Available at The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS.Florida Atlantic University. (n.d.). Time Series and Stochastic Processes. Available at: http://www.ccs.fau.edu/~bressler/EDU/STSA/Modules/I.pdf.International Medical Corps. March 16, 2020. COVID-19. Situation Report #9, Available at: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/IntlMedCorps-COVID-19_SitRep09.pdf.Jeffrey Cheng, Dave Skidmore, David Wessel. July 17, 2020. What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?. Available at Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/.Jerome H. Powell. August 27, 2020. New Economic Challenges and the Fed`s Monetary Policy Review. Available at Federal Reserve Board: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm.Jacob Pramuk. March 26, 2020. Here’s what’s in the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill. Available at CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-updates-whats-in-the-2-trillion-relief-plan.html.Kimberly Amadeo. April 27, 2020. How Does the 2020 Stock Market Crash Compare With Others?, Available at The Balance: https://www.thebalance.com/fundamentals-of-the-2020-market-crash-4799950.Keith Bradsher. Feb. 20, 2020. Slowed by the Coronavirus, China Inc. Struggles to Reopen. The New York Times, Available at:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/business/china-coronavirus-economy.html.Michigan State Medical Society. March 26, 2020. Coronavirus March 26 Update: Details on the Stimulus Package Headed to the House & Debate Over a 4th Bill. Available at: https://www.msms.org/About-MSMS/News-Media/coronavirus-march-26-update-details-on-the-stimulus-package-headed-to-the-house-debate-over-a-4th-bill.Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn. May, 5, 2020. Can we compare the COVID-19 and 2008 crises? Available at Atlantic Council: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/can-we-compare-the-covid-19-and-2008-crises/. Neeraj Kumar, Danny Haydon. Apr 7, 2020. Industries Most and Least Impacted by COVID-19 from a Probability of Default Perspective – March 2020 Update. Available at S&P Global Market Intelligence: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/industries-most-and-least-impacted-by-COVID-19-from-a-probability-of-default-perspective-march-2020-update.Oil Production vs. US Dollar Index. Available at MacroMicro: https://www.macromicro.me/time_line?id=21&stat=483.Policy Responses to Covid-19. Available at International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19.Personal Consumption Expenditures. Available at Fred Economic Data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCERichard Baldwin, Beatrice Weder di Mauro. 2020. Economics in the Time of COVID-19 [VoxEU.org Book version]. Available at: http://dln.jaipuria.ac.in:8080/jspui/bitstream/123456789/7783/1/Economics%20in%20the%20Time%20of%20COVID-19%20by%20Richard%20Baldwin%2C%20Beatrice%20Weder%20di%20Mauro.pdf.Randal K. Quarles. October 15, 2020. What Happened? What Have We Learned From It? Lessons from COVID-19 Stress on the Financial System. Available at Federal Reserve Board:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/quarles20201015a.htm.Susie Neilson, Aylin Woodward, Dave Mosher. September 30, 2020. A comprehensive timeline of the coronavirus pandemic at 12 months, from China`s first case to the present. Available at Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3.Sean Ross. September 25, 2020. How Oil Prices Affect the Stock Market. Available at Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030415/how-does-price-oil-affect-stock-market.asp.Trade in services (% of GDP). Available at The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BG.GSR.NFSV.GD.ZS.Trade in services. Available at Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-services.htm. Timeline: WHO`s COVID-19 Response. Available at World Health Organization: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/interactive-timeline?gclid=Cj0KCQjw8rT8BRCbARIsALWiOvQFY5qhiv9HcxrTtkJRY-LWWOYT9qH9wWKzdadRpTii8q_q10pgScMaAuxPEALw_wcB#event-42.Tim Gould, Neil Atkinson. April 1, 2020. The global oil industry is experiencing a shock like no other in its history. Available at IEA: https://www.iea.org/articles/the-global-oil-industry-is-experiencing-shock-like-no-other-in-its-history#.US COVID-19 daily cases. Available at National Center for High-performance Computing: https://covid-19.nchc.org.tw/dt_002-csse_covid_19_daily_reports_city_unique_mycountry.php?countryCode=US/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B&language=en.US Crude Oil Inventories. Available at MacroMicro: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/19/mm-oil-price/178/us-oil-inventory.United Nations Industrial Development Organization. 2018. Demand for Manufacturing: Driving Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development. Industrial Development Report 2018, Available at: https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2017-11/IDR2018_FULL%20REPORT.pdf.Roy H. Webb. July, 1994. Forecasts of Inflation from VAR Models. Available at Federal Reserve Bank of Richmon: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/working_papers/1994/pdf/wp94-8.pdf.2006. Vector Autoregressive Models for Multivariate Time Series. In: Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS®. Springer, New York, NY. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-32348-0_11. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
109351002資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109351002 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 謝淑貞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Shieh, Shwu-Jane en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李姿萱 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lee, Tzu-Hsuan en_US dc.creator (作者) 李姿萱 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lee, Tzu-Hsuan en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Jun-2021 14:54:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Jun-2021 14:54:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jun-2021 14:54:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109351002 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/135326 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109351002 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文使用向量自我迴歸模型，研究近兩次重大金融危機──2008年金融海嘯與2020年新冠肺炎大流行期間，美國股票價格、布蘭特原油期貨價格、美國兩年期公債期貨價格、美國失業率和美國製造業採購經理人指數之間的相關性。研究結果顯示，1990年至2020年變數之間存在一些重要關係。其次，2008年金融海嘯期間，布蘭特原油期貨價格的變動與上期股票報酬率呈負相關，但兩者的相關性在2020年新冠肺炎大流行時為正相關。此外，該相關係數的絕對值在兩次危機期間皆大於長期趨勢。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) We use Vector Auto-regression models to investigate the correlation between stock prices, crude oil futures prices, two-year T-Note futures prices, unemployment rate and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers` Index of the USA during the most recent devastating financial crises－the Financial Crisis of 2008 and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. First, we find a few significant relationships between variables for a period of 1990 to 2020. Second, changes in crude oil futures price was negatively related to previous stock returns in the Financial Crisis of 2008, but the correlation changed to positive in 2020. Furthermore, correlations between these two variables were higher in absolute value during two crises than long-term one. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 62. What happened and when 93. Causes and effects: The Cause of The Crash And Its Real Effects 113.1 External Factors 123.2 COVID-19 broke out and spread across the world 133.3 Government Policy 143.4 Supply Chain Disruptions 143.5 Demand Shocks 163.6 Stock Market and Oil Market Crashes 173.7 Economic Growth Declines and Unemployment rises 174. Methodology 184.1 Data Stability Test 184.2 Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) 215. Research Results 245.1 Data Description 245.2 Unit Root Test 285.3 Empirical Results 285.4 Summary of Research Results 356. The Policy Responses to the Crisis 366.1 Near-zero Federal Fund Rate 366.2 Quantitative Easing 366.3 Encouraging Banks to Lend 376.4 Supporting Households and Consumers 376.5 Significance of The Fed’s Actions 377. Concluding Remarks 39References 40 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1026667 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109351002 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 大流行病 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 向量自我迴歸模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貨幣政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 量化寬鬆 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Pandemic en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) VAR en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Monetary policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Unlimited QE en_US dc.title (題名) 比較金融危機與新冠疫情下的美國經濟：股票與石油市場實證分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The U.S. Economy during Financial Crisis and Coronavirus Pandemic: Evidence from the Stock and Oil Market en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 書籍Shiu-Sheng Chen. March 2013. Applied Time-Series Econometrics for Macroeconomics and Finance, 2nd Edition. Tung-Hua, Taipei.期刊論文Anjan V. Thakor. 2015. The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009: Why Did It Happen and What Did We Learn?, The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Volume 4, Issue 2, September 2015, 155–205.Ashraf B. N. 2020. Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets. Journal of behavioral and experimental finance, 27, 100371. doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100371.Bentour, El Mostafa. January 15, 2015. A Ranking of VAR and Structural Models in Forecasting. MPRA Paper No. 61502.David Altig, Scott R. Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent H. Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas B. Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka and Greg Thwaites. 2020. Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic. NBER Working Paper No. 27418.Dave Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites. November, 2020. Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, Volume 191, 104274. Available at Science Direct: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272720301389.J.D. Hamilton. Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy 91 (1983), 228-248Fernandes, Nuno. March 22, 2020. Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy. IESE Business School Working Paper No. WP-1240-E, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3557504 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504. Gao Shangqua. 2000. Economic Globalization: Trends, Risks and Risk Prevention. Economic & Social Affairs CDP Background Paper No. 1.Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber. 2020. The Cost of the COVID-19Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending. NBER Working Paper 27141.Scott R Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon, Tasaneeya Viratyosin. 2020. The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19. NBER Working Paper No. 26945.Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Stephen J. Terry. 2020. COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty. NBER Working Paper No. 26983.Sumedha Gupta, Laura Montenovo, Thuy D. Nguyen, Felipe L. Rojas, Ian M. Schmutte, KosaliI. Simon, Bruce A. Weinberg and Coady Wing. 2020a. Effects of Social DistancingPolicy on Labor Markets. NBER Working Paper 27280.Willem Thorbecke. 2019. Oil prices and the U.S. economy: Evidence from the stock market. Journal of Macroeconomics 61(2019) 103137.Yudong Wang, Zhiyuan Pan, Li Liu, Chongfeng Wu. 2019. Oil price increases and the predictability of equity premium. Journal of Banking and Finance 102 (2019), 43-58.網際網路Baker Mckenzie. 2020. Beyond COVID-19: Supply Chain Resilience Holds Key to Recovery. Available at: https://www.bakermckenzie.com/-/media/files/insight/publications/2020/04/covid19-global-economy.pdf.Brian Beers. March 30, 2020. Why do investors use the S&P 500 as a benchmark? Available at Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041315/what-are-pros-and-cons-using-sp-500-benchmark.asp.Bernanke, B. 2016. The Relationship Between Stocks and Oil Prices. Web blog post. Ben Bernanke`s Blog.China NBS Manufacturing PMI. Available at Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence.Chang-Jin Kim (n.d.). Unit Root Tests. Available at University of Washington, Economics Web site: https://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/econ584/notes/unitroot.pdf.Eric Zivot, Jiahui Wang. 2006. Vector Autoregressive Models for Multivariate Time Series. In: Modeling Financial Time Series. S-PLUS®. Springer, New York, NY. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-32348-0_11.Employment in services (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate). Available at The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS.Florida Atlantic University. (n.d.). Time Series and Stochastic Processes. Available at: http://www.ccs.fau.edu/~bressler/EDU/STSA/Modules/I.pdf.International Medical Corps. March 16, 2020. COVID-19. Situation Report #9, Available at: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/IntlMedCorps-COVID-19_SitRep09.pdf.Jeffrey Cheng, Dave Skidmore, David Wessel. July 17, 2020. What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?. Available at Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/.Jerome H. Powell. August 27, 2020. New Economic Challenges and the Fed`s Monetary Policy Review. Available at Federal Reserve Board: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm.Jacob Pramuk. March 26, 2020. Here’s what’s in the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill. Available at CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-updates-whats-in-the-2-trillion-relief-plan.html.Kimberly Amadeo. April 27, 2020. How Does the 2020 Stock Market Crash Compare With Others?, Available at The Balance: https://www.thebalance.com/fundamentals-of-the-2020-market-crash-4799950.Keith Bradsher. Feb. 20, 2020. Slowed by the Coronavirus, China Inc. Struggles to Reopen. The New York Times, Available at:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/business/china-coronavirus-economy.html.Michigan State Medical Society. March 26, 2020. Coronavirus March 26 Update: Details on the Stimulus Package Headed to the House & Debate Over a 4th Bill. Available at: https://www.msms.org/About-MSMS/News-Media/coronavirus-march-26-update-details-on-the-stimulus-package-headed-to-the-house-debate-over-a-4th-bill.Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn. May, 5, 2020. Can we compare the COVID-19 and 2008 crises? Available at Atlantic Council: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/can-we-compare-the-covid-19-and-2008-crises/. Neeraj Kumar, Danny Haydon. Apr 7, 2020. Industries Most and Least Impacted by COVID-19 from a Probability of Default Perspective – March 2020 Update. Available at S&P Global Market Intelligence: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/industries-most-and-least-impacted-by-COVID-19-from-a-probability-of-default-perspective-march-2020-update.Oil Production vs. US Dollar Index. Available at MacroMicro: https://www.macromicro.me/time_line?id=21&stat=483.Policy Responses to Covid-19. Available at International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19.Personal Consumption Expenditures. Available at Fred Economic Data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCERichard Baldwin, Beatrice Weder di Mauro. 2020. Economics in the Time of COVID-19 [VoxEU.org Book version]. Available at: http://dln.jaipuria.ac.in:8080/jspui/bitstream/123456789/7783/1/Economics%20in%20the%20Time%20of%20COVID-19%20by%20Richard%20Baldwin%2C%20Beatrice%20Weder%20di%20Mauro.pdf.Randal K. Quarles. October 15, 2020. What Happened? What Have We Learned From It? Lessons from COVID-19 Stress on the Financial System. Available at Federal Reserve Board:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/quarles20201015a.htm.Susie Neilson, Aylin Woodward, Dave Mosher. September 30, 2020. A comprehensive timeline of the coronavirus pandemic at 12 months, from China`s first case to the present. Available at Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3.Sean Ross. September 25, 2020. How Oil Prices Affect the Stock Market. Available at Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030415/how-does-price-oil-affect-stock-market.asp.Trade in services (% of GDP). Available at The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BG.GSR.NFSV.GD.ZS.Trade in services. Available at Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-services.htm. Timeline: WHO`s COVID-19 Response. Available at World Health Organization: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/interactive-timeline?gclid=Cj0KCQjw8rT8BRCbARIsALWiOvQFY5qhiv9HcxrTtkJRY-LWWOYT9qH9wWKzdadRpTii8q_q10pgScMaAuxPEALw_wcB#event-42.Tim Gould, Neil Atkinson. April 1, 2020. The global oil industry is experiencing a shock like no other in its history. Available at IEA: https://www.iea.org/articles/the-global-oil-industry-is-experiencing-shock-like-no-other-in-its-history#.US COVID-19 daily cases. Available at National Center for High-performance Computing: https://covid-19.nchc.org.tw/dt_002-csse_covid_19_daily_reports_city_unique_mycountry.php?countryCode=US/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B&language=en.US Crude Oil Inventories. Available at MacroMicro: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/19/mm-oil-price/178/us-oil-inventory.United Nations Industrial Development Organization. 2018. Demand for Manufacturing: Driving Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development. Industrial Development Report 2018, Available at: https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2017-11/IDR2018_FULL%20REPORT.pdf.Roy H. Webb. July, 1994. Forecasts of Inflation from VAR Models. Available at Federal Reserve Bank of Richmon: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/working_papers/1994/pdf/wp94-8.pdf.2006. Vector Autoregressive Models for Multivariate Time Series. In: Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS®. Springer, New York, NY. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-32348-0_11. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100435 en_US
