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題名 球員選秀順位與未來表現之關聯性分析：以NBA為例
Draft Order and Players` Future Performance: Evidence from the National Basketball Association作者 謝書昀
Shie, Shu-Yun貢獻者 陳鎮洲
Chen, Jenn-Jou
謝書昀
Shie, Shu-Yun關鍵詞 NBA選秀
球員表現
運動經濟學
NBA draft
Player performance
Sports economics日期 2021 上傳時間 1-Jul-2021 20:22:58 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究採用美國籃球聯盟西元 2006 年至 2017 年順利通過兩輪選秀之新秀球員數據資料，以迴歸不連續法，估計球員選秀順位與其未來表現關聯性。實證結果顯示，在前三年的職業生涯中，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員，並未擁有較佳表現。在職業生涯第二年，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員， 平均每場比賽獲得較多上場時間;然而，此結果並不穩定。去除了同一賽季中，曾有轉換過球隊的球員後，仍獲得類似結果。因此，推斷此不穩定結果現象可能為樣本數不足原因所致。
The goal of this paper is to examine the correlation between draft order and players’ subsequent performance using draftees’ statistics between 2006 and 2017 from the National Basketball Association (NBA). A regression discontinuity design is applied to capture the effect of draft order. The results show that higher-drafted players are not more productive than lower-drafted players throughout the first three years of their career. Although higher-drafted players have more playing time per game than lower-drafted players in their second year, the results are unstable. In a subgroup analysis, I find similar results. A possible reason for the unexpected results may lie in the inadequacy of the sample size.參考文獻 Berri, D. J., Brook, S. L., & Fenn, A. J. (2011). From college to the pros: Predicting the NBA amateur player draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 25-35.Berri, D. J., & Simmons, R. (2011). Catching a draft: On the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 37-49.Borland, J., Lee, L., & Macdonald, R. D. (2011). Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL. Labour Economics, 18(3), 371-380.Camerer, C. F., & Weber, R. A. (1999). The econometrics and behavioral economics of escalation of commitment: A re-examination of Staw and Hoang’s NBA data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 39(1), 59-82.Evans, B. A. (2018). From college to the NBA: what determines a player’s success and what characteristics are NBA franchises overlooking?. Applied Economics Letters, 25(5), 300-304.Hinton, A., & Sun, Y. (2020). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Basketball Association: evidence using player salary and playing time. Empirical Economics, 59(2), 1019-1036.Keefer, Q. A. (2017). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Football League: Salary cap value and playing time. Journal of Sports Economics, 18(3), 282-297.Leeds, D. M., Leeds, M. A., & Motomura, A. (2015). Are sunk costs irrelevant? Evidence from playing time in the National Basketball Association. Economic Inquiry, 53(2), 1305-1316.Rodenberg, R. M., & Woo Kim, J. (2011). Precocity and labor market outcomes: evidence from professional basketball. Economics Bulletin, 31(3), 2185-2190.Staw, B. M., & Hoang, H. (1995). Sunk costs in the NBA: Why draft order affects playing time and survival in professional basketball. Administrative Science Quarterly, 474-494. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
107258023資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107258023 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳鎮洲 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Jenn-Jou en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 謝書昀 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Shie, Shu-Yun en_US dc.creator (作者) 謝書昀 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Shie, Shu-Yun en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2021 20:22:58 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Jul-2021 20:22:58 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2021 20:22:58 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107258023 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/135994 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107258023 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究採用美國籃球聯盟西元 2006 年至 2017 年順利通過兩輪選秀之新秀球員數據資料，以迴歸不連續法，估計球員選秀順位與其未來表現關聯性。實證結果顯示，在前三年的職業生涯中，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員，並未擁有較佳表現。在職業生涯第二年，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員， 平均每場比賽獲得較多上場時間;然而，此結果並不穩定。去除了同一賽季中，曾有轉換過球隊的球員後，仍獲得類似結果。因此，推斷此不穩定結果現象可能為樣本數不足原因所致。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The goal of this paper is to examine the correlation between draft order and players’ subsequent performance using draftees’ statistics between 2006 and 2017 from the National Basketball Association (NBA). A regression discontinuity design is applied to capture the effect of draft order. The results show that higher-drafted players are not more productive than lower-drafted players throughout the first three years of their career. Although higher-drafted players have more playing time per game than lower-drafted players in their second year, the results are unstable. In a subgroup analysis, I find similar results. A possible reason for the unexpected results may lie in the inadequacy of the sample size. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 12. Literature Review 32.1 Determinants of players` future success 32.2 Sunk cost fallacy in professional sport field 42.3 Extension of previous studies 53. Empirical Design 73.1 Data Analysis 73.2 Method 144. Results 154.1 Estimation Results 154.2 Graphical Results 195. Conclusion and discussion 23References 25Appendix: Supplemental Tables 26 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1562417 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107258023 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) NBA選秀 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 球員表現 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 運動經濟學 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) NBA draft en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Player performance en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sports economics en_US dc.title (題名) 球員選秀順位與未來表現之關聯性分析：以NBA為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Draft Order and Players` Future Performance: Evidence from the National Basketball Association en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Berri, D. J., Brook, S. L., & Fenn, A. J. (2011). From college to the pros: Predicting the NBA amateur player draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 25-35.Berri, D. J., & Simmons, R. (2011). Catching a draft: On the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 37-49.Borland, J., Lee, L., & Macdonald, R. D. (2011). Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL. Labour Economics, 18(3), 371-380.Camerer, C. F., & Weber, R. A. (1999). The econometrics and behavioral economics of escalation of commitment: A re-examination of Staw and Hoang’s NBA data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 39(1), 59-82.Evans, B. A. (2018). From college to the NBA: what determines a player’s success and what characteristics are NBA franchises overlooking?. Applied Economics Letters, 25(5), 300-304.Hinton, A., & Sun, Y. (2020). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Basketball Association: evidence using player salary and playing time. Empirical Economics, 59(2), 1019-1036.Keefer, Q. A. (2017). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Football League: Salary cap value and playing time. Journal of Sports Economics, 18(3), 282-297.Leeds, D. M., Leeds, M. A., & Motomura, A. (2015). Are sunk costs irrelevant? Evidence from playing time in the National Basketball Association. Economic Inquiry, 53(2), 1305-1316.Rodenberg, R. M., & Woo Kim, J. (2011). Precocity and labor market outcomes: evidence from professional basketball. Economics Bulletin, 31(3), 2185-2190.Staw, B. M., & Hoang, H. (1995). Sunk costs in the NBA: Why draft order affects playing time and survival in professional basketball. Administrative Science Quarterly, 474-494. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100578 en_US
