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題名 Cross-item learning for volatile demand forecasting: An intervention with predictive analytics 作者 莊皓鈞
Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun
Chou, Yen-Chun
Oliva, Rogelio貢獻者 資管系 關鍵詞 demand forecasting ; lead time ; feature engineering ; machine learning ; data analytics ; intervention-based research 日期 2021.04 上傳時間 2021-07-21 摘要 Despite its importance to OM, demand forecasting has been perceived as a “problem-solving” exercise; most empirical work in the field has focused on explanatory models but neglected prediction problems that are part of empirical science. The present study, involving one of the leading electronics distributors in the world, aims to improve prediction accuracy under high demand volatility for procurement managers to make better inventory decisions. In response to requests for an integrated forecasting methodology, we undertook an iterative process based on three guiding principles — data pooling, theory-informed feature engineering, and ensemble-based machine learning. The resulting framework managed to improve forecast accuracy significantly and is applicable to a broad range of situations. We present reflections and insights derived abductively through engagement with managers in this problem situation. This “problem-driven” process corresponds to intervention as a research strategy that can foster theoretical and methodological innovations in OM. Our contribution goes beyond the development of the prediction framework as it elucidates ways OM researchers could leverage theoretical foundations to inform feature derivation and model construction. We posit that this work points to a way forward to the combination of OM principles with the emerging innovations in data science and artificial intelligence. 關聯 Journal of Operations Management 資料類型 article DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/joom.1152 dc.contributor 資管系 dc.creator (作者) 莊皓鈞 dc.creator (作者) Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun dc.creator (作者) Chou, Yen-Chun dc.creator (作者) Oliva, Rogelio dc.date (日期) 2021.04 dc.date.accessioned 2021-07-21 - dc.date.available 2021-07-21 - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2021-07-21 - dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136101 - dc.description.abstract (摘要) Despite its importance to OM, demand forecasting has been perceived as a “problem-solving” exercise; most empirical work in the field has focused on explanatory models but neglected prediction problems that are part of empirical science. The present study, involving one of the leading electronics distributors in the world, aims to improve prediction accuracy under high demand volatility for procurement managers to make better inventory decisions. In response to requests for an integrated forecasting methodology, we undertook an iterative process based on three guiding principles — data pooling, theory-informed feature engineering, and ensemble-based machine learning. The resulting framework managed to improve forecast accuracy significantly and is applicable to a broad range of situations. We present reflections and insights derived abductively through engagement with managers in this problem situation. This “problem-driven” process corresponds to intervention as a research strategy that can foster theoretical and methodological innovations in OM. Our contribution goes beyond the development of the prediction framework as it elucidates ways OM researchers could leverage theoretical foundations to inform feature derivation and model construction. We posit that this work points to a way forward to the combination of OM principles with the emerging innovations in data science and artificial intelligence. dc.format.extent 1629806 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.relation (關聯) Journal of Operations Management dc.subject (關鍵詞) demand forecasting ; lead time ; feature engineering ; machine learning ; data analytics ; intervention-based research dc.title (題名) Cross-item learning for volatile demand forecasting: An intervention with predictive analytics dc.type (資料類型) article dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1002/joom.1152 dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1002/joom.1152
