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題名 景氣循環對保險購買行為影響之研究
Empirical Analysis of the Influence on Business Cycle in Behavioral Insurance作者 吳俊德
Wu, Jun-De貢獻者 彭金隆
Peng, Jin-Lung
吳俊德
Wu, Jun-De關鍵詞 景氣因子
投資情緒
保險購買行為
保險金額
Prosperity factors
Investment sentiment
Insurance purchase
Sum assured日期 2021 上傳時間 4-Aug-2021 14:55:31 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文主要研究景氣循環對於保險購買行為的影響，透過文獻的回顧，進一步推斷景氣的變動會影響人們心理情緒，而改變自身的風險偏好與衡量標準，藉由總體經濟變數作為民眾判斷景氣的指標，觀察民眾於景氣波動下的風險感受是否會反應在保險金額的選擇上。本文以國內某資產前五之壽險公司保戶投保紀錄作為樣本，並以最近一次景氣循環基準日做為資料期間進行實證研究。實證結果發現，當景氣愈差時，要保人的風險意識會提升，進而購買高保額；反之，當景氣上升，則會使要保人風險意識轉弱，降低保額的購買。本文跟進一步將股票市場的反應作為民眾判斷景氣的指標，但實證結果較不顯著，推測可能並非所有購買保險的人都會參與股票市場。最後本文將景氣循環週期區分成了「擴張期」與「收縮期」並觀察在收縮期時購買的保額是否會顯著大於擴張期，發現收縮期的保額購買量確實大於擴張期。透過本文的研究，可以提供保險公司針對不同的景氣狀況，執行對應的行銷策略以及增進業務的推展，除了能使保險公司在商品的銷售上更有效率，也能創造更多的銷售機會。
The article mainly studies about the impact of the business cycle on insurance purchase behavior. Through literature review, it is further inferred that the business cycle fluctuation will affect people’s psychological emotions and change their own risk appetite and measurement standards, so based on the overall economic variables as an indicator for the public to judge the prosperity. Observe whether the public`s risk perception under business fluctuations will be reflected in the choice of sum assured.We use one of the top five life insurance companies of a certain domestic asset as a sample, and use the most recent business cycle base date as the data period to conduct an empirical study The empirical results found that when the economy worsens, the insured person’s risk awareness will increase and he will purchase a higher insurance coverage; on the contrary, when the economy rises, it will cause The insurer’s risk awareness weakened and lowered the amount of insured purchases. We further use the response of the stock market as an indicator of the public’s judgment on the prosperity, but the empirical results are less significant. We speculate that not all people who buy insurance will participate in the stock market. Finally, we divide the business cycle into an "expansion period" and a "contraction period" and observe whether the insured amount purchased during the contraction period will be significantly greater than the expansion period, and found that the amount of insured purchase during the contraction period is indeed greater than the expansion period.Through the research in this article, we can provide insurance companies to implement corresponding marketing strategies and promote business promotion according to different business conditions. In addition to making insurance companies more efficient in product sales, it can also create more sales opportunities.參考文獻 一、中文資料古乙辰（2020），天氣對保險購買行為之影響分析。國立政治大學風險管理與保險學系碩士論文，台北市。林向愷、岳峻豪，（2009）。政經結構變遷與景氣波動－台灣的實證研究。《經濟論文》，37(4)，411-456。周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、龔怡霖，（2002）。行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望。證券市場發展季刊，14，1-46。彭惠琴（2003）。通貨膨脹、就業及貨幣政策與景氣循環之關聯性。中原大學國際貿易學系碩士論文，桃園市。陳玲慧，（1999）。壽險有效契約之成長與經濟環境之相關分析研究。保險專刊，58，92-107。陳仕偉、劉曜竹，（2004）。領先指標對台灣景氣趨勢預測能力的評估。台灣經濟論衡，2(11)，1-34。賴素鈴、倪家珍，（2004）。經濟發展對我國壽險需求影響性之模式建構。文大商管學報，9(2)，1-27。陳瑞欽 (2016)。匯率與總體經濟面之關係研究－以台灣為例。嶺東科技大學財經法律所碩士論文，台中市。陳錦村、蕭育仁、廖志峰，（2014）。金融知識與股票市場參與關聯性之研究－台灣地區的驗證。證券市場發展季刊，26(2)，1 - 42。二、英文資料Baker, M. and Wurgler, J, (2006). “Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock return”, Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.Barber, M. and Odean, T, (2001). “Boy will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261–292.Barber, M., Odean, T. and Zhu, N, (2009). “Systematic noise.” Journal of Financial Markets, 12(4), 547-569.Brunnermeier, M. K., Gollier, C. and Parker, J. A., (2007). “Optimal beliefs, asset prices, and the preference for skewed returns”, American Economic Review, 97(2), 159-165.Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C., (1946). “Measuring business cycles”, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.Chang, C. C., Hsieh, P. F. and Wang Y. H., (2015). “Sophistication, sentiment, and misreaction”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 50, 903–928.Chung, S. L., Hung, C.H. and Yeh, C.Y., (2012). “When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 19(2), 217-240.De Long, B. J., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H. and Waldmann, R., (1990). ”Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation”, Journal of Finance, 45(2), 379-395.Fabozzi, F. J. and Francis, J. C., (1977). “Stability tests for alpha and betas over bull and bear market conditions,” Journal of Finance, 32(4), 1093-1099.Finucane, M. L., Alhakami , A., Slovic, P. and Johnson, S. M., (2000). “The affectheuristic in judgments of risks and benefits”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13(1), 1-17.Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., (1979). “Prospect Theory:An analysis of decision under risk”, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.Kamara, A., Miller, T.W. and Siegel, A.F., (1992). “The effect of futures trading on the stability of Standard and Poor 500 return”, The Journal of Futures Market, 12(6), 645-658.Katona, G., (1975). “Psychological economics”, New York: Elsevier Scientific Publication.Olsen, R. A., (1998). “Behavioral finance and its implications for stock-price Volatility”, Financial Analysts Journal, 54(2), 10-18.Sahm, C. R., (2012). “How much does risk tolerance change?” The Quarterly Journal of Finance, 2(4), 1-38.Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. and Phillips, L. D., (1982). “Calibration of probabilities: The state of the Art to 1980”, New York: Cambridge University Press Publication.Wright, W. F. and Bower, G. H., (1992). “Mood effects on subjective probability assessment, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52(2),276-291. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
108358021資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108358021 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 彭金隆 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Peng, Jin-Lung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳俊德 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Jun-De en_US dc.creator (作者) 吳俊德 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wu, Jun-De en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2021 14:55:31 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2021 14:55:31 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2021 14:55:31 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108358021 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136379 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108358021 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文主要研究景氣循環對於保險購買行為的影響，透過文獻的回顧，進一步推斷景氣的變動會影響人們心理情緒，而改變自身的風險偏好與衡量標準，藉由總體經濟變數作為民眾判斷景氣的指標，觀察民眾於景氣波動下的風險感受是否會反應在保險金額的選擇上。本文以國內某資產前五之壽險公司保戶投保紀錄作為樣本，並以最近一次景氣循環基準日做為資料期間進行實證研究。實證結果發現，當景氣愈差時，要保人的風險意識會提升，進而購買高保額；反之，當景氣上升，則會使要保人風險意識轉弱，降低保額的購買。本文跟進一步將股票市場的反應作為民眾判斷景氣的指標，但實證結果較不顯著，推測可能並非所有購買保險的人都會參與股票市場。最後本文將景氣循環週期區分成了「擴張期」與「收縮期」並觀察在收縮期時購買的保額是否會顯著大於擴張期，發現收縮期的保額購買量確實大於擴張期。透過本文的研究，可以提供保險公司針對不同的景氣狀況，執行對應的行銷策略以及增進業務的推展，除了能使保險公司在商品的銷售上更有效率，也能創造更多的銷售機會。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The article mainly studies about the impact of the business cycle on insurance purchase behavior. Through literature review, it is further inferred that the business cycle fluctuation will affect people’s psychological emotions and change their own risk appetite and measurement standards, so based on the overall economic variables as an indicator for the public to judge the prosperity. Observe whether the public`s risk perception under business fluctuations will be reflected in the choice of sum assured.We use one of the top five life insurance companies of a certain domestic asset as a sample, and use the most recent business cycle base date as the data period to conduct an empirical study The empirical results found that when the economy worsens, the insured person’s risk awareness will increase and he will purchase a higher insurance coverage; on the contrary, when the economy rises, it will cause The insurer’s risk awareness weakened and lowered the amount of insured purchases. We further use the response of the stock market as an indicator of the public’s judgment on the prosperity, but the empirical results are less significant. We speculate that not all people who buy insurance will participate in the stock market. Finally, we divide the business cycle into an "expansion period" and a "contraction period" and observe whether the insured amount purchased during the contraction period will be significantly greater than the expansion period, and found that the amount of insured purchase during the contraction period is indeed greater than the expansion period.Through the research in this article, we can provide insurance companies to implement corresponding marketing strategies and promote business promotion according to different business conditions. In addition to making insurance companies more efficient in product sales, it can also create more sales opportunities. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的 2第二章 文獻回顧 4第一節 投資情緒與風險意識 4第二節 景氣循環、情緒心理與風險意識 5第三節 景氣循環與保險購買行為 6第三章 研究設計 9第一節 資料蒐集與樣本選取 9第二節 變數說明 11第三節 模型設定與檢定 15第四章 實證結果與分析 19第一節 總體景氣變數與保險購買實證分析結果 19第二節 股市反應、景氣波動與保險購買實證分析 28第三節 景氣循環階段對保險購買影響之檢定 31第四節 實證結果統整分析 33第五章 結論與建議 35第一節 研究結論 35第二節 後續研究建議 36參考文獻 37 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3025604 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108358021 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 景氣因子 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資情緒 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 保險購買行為 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 保險金額 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Prosperity factors en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Investment sentiment en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Insurance purchase en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sum assured en_US dc.title (題名) 景氣循環對保險購買行為影響之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Empirical Analysis of the Influence on Business Cycle in Behavioral Insurance en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文資料古乙辰（2020），天氣對保險購買行為之影響分析。國立政治大學風險管理與保險學系碩士論文，台北市。林向愷、岳峻豪，（2009）。政經結構變遷與景氣波動－台灣的實證研究。《經濟論文》，37(4)，411-456。周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、龔怡霖，（2002）。行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望。證券市場發展季刊，14，1-46。彭惠琴（2003）。通貨膨脹、就業及貨幣政策與景氣循環之關聯性。中原大學國際貿易學系碩士論文，桃園市。陳玲慧，（1999）。壽險有效契約之成長與經濟環境之相關分析研究。保險專刊，58，92-107。陳仕偉、劉曜竹，（2004）。領先指標對台灣景氣趨勢預測能力的評估。台灣經濟論衡，2(11)，1-34。賴素鈴、倪家珍，（2004）。經濟發展對我國壽險需求影響性之模式建構。文大商管學報，9(2)，1-27。陳瑞欽 (2016)。匯率與總體經濟面之關係研究－以台灣為例。嶺東科技大學財經法律所碩士論文，台中市。陳錦村、蕭育仁、廖志峰，（2014）。金融知識與股票市場參與關聯性之研究－台灣地區的驗證。證券市場發展季刊，26(2)，1 - 42。二、英文資料Baker, M. and Wurgler, J, (2006). “Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock return”, Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.Barber, M. and Odean, T, (2001). “Boy will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261–292.Barber, M., Odean, T. and Zhu, N, (2009). “Systematic noise.” Journal of Financial Markets, 12(4), 547-569.Brunnermeier, M. K., Gollier, C. and Parker, J. A., (2007). “Optimal beliefs, asset prices, and the preference for skewed returns”, American Economic Review, 97(2), 159-165.Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C., (1946). “Measuring business cycles”, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.Chang, C. C., Hsieh, P. F. and Wang Y. H., (2015). “Sophistication, sentiment, and misreaction”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 50, 903–928.Chung, S. L., Hung, C.H. and Yeh, C.Y., (2012). “When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 19(2), 217-240.De Long, B. J., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H. and Waldmann, R., (1990). ”Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation”, Journal of Finance, 45(2), 379-395.Fabozzi, F. J. and Francis, J. C., (1977). “Stability tests for alpha and betas over bull and bear market conditions,” Journal of Finance, 32(4), 1093-1099.Finucane, M. L., Alhakami , A., Slovic, P. and Johnson, S. M., (2000). “The affectheuristic in judgments of risks and benefits”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13(1), 1-17.Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., (1979). “Prospect Theory:An analysis of decision under risk”, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.Kamara, A., Miller, T.W. and Siegel, A.F., (1992). “The effect of futures trading on the stability of Standard and Poor 500 return”, The Journal of Futures Market, 12(6), 645-658.Katona, G., (1975). “Psychological economics”, New York: Elsevier Scientific Publication.Olsen, R. A., (1998). “Behavioral finance and its implications for stock-price Volatility”, Financial Analysts Journal, 54(2), 10-18.Sahm, C. R., (2012). “How much does risk tolerance change?” The Quarterly Journal of Finance, 2(4), 1-38.Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. and Phillips, L. D., (1982). “Calibration of probabilities: The state of the Art to 1980”, New York: Cambridge University Press Publication.Wright, W. F. and Bower, G. H., (1992). “Mood effects on subjective probability assessment, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52(2),276-291. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100784 en_US
