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題名 新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情對不動產市場的影響－以美國為例
The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market- Evidence from USA作者 林宗緯
Lin, Zong-Wei貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tso-Yu
林宗緯
Lin, Zong-Wei關鍵詞 新冠肺炎
不動產投資信託
自我迴歸分配落遲模型
COVID-19
REITs
ARDL Model日期 2021 上傳時間 4-Aug-2021 15:51:14 (UTC+8) 摘要 新冠肺炎COVID-19病毒正嚴重地重挫全球的經濟。疫情的爆發除了危害到人們生命安全，也正改變人們的生活型態。本研究欲探討新冠肺炎COVID-19疫情對不動產市場的影響。首先，本研究透過文獻回顧，觀察歷史上造成大流行的疫情與現階段的COVID-19，利用時間序列資料，建立自我迴歸分配落遲模型分析不同產業在遭受到疫情的影響之下，對於其經濟以及不動產市場的影響。本研究樣區為美國，建立三個模型，採用之應變數分別為商辦大樓（BXP）、零售業（O）與流通物流業（PLD）的不動產投資信託（REITs）指數；自變數包含COVID-19確診數、COVID-19死亡數、標普500股價指數、VIX恐慌指數、美元指數、美國非農就業人口、基準利率與M2貨幣供給量。模型結果顯示確診數對於上述三個產業皆無顯著影響，然而死亡數對於商辦大樓與零售業皆為負向顯著影響，而對流通物流業則為正向顯著影響。美國政府與聯準會實施無限QE政策、降息與紓困案等利多政策，致使股價指數與M2貨幣供應量正向顯著商辦大樓與零售業。相對而言，過多的美金流於市場當中，使得美元指數與REITs指數呈向負向顯著相關。美國非農從業人口僅正向影響商辦大樓，以及利率對於商辦大樓為負向關係然而與零售業有著正向關係，顯示疫情之下各產業面臨不同之議題。政府相關單位研擬財政措施時，應謹慎評估紓困之產業類別與相對應之對象，方能有效地解決當今社會與經濟問題。
COVID-19 is severely hitting the global economy hard. The outbreak of the epidemic not only endangered people`s lives, but greatly changed people`s lifestyles. The study intends to explore the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market. First of all, the study uses literature review to observe the historical epidemics that have caused pandemics and the current COVID-19. The study use time series data to establish autoregressive distributed lag model to analyze the impact of different industries under the impact of the epidemic.The sample area of the study is the United States, and three models are established. Dependent Variables are the real estate investment trust (REITs) index of commercial office building (BXP), retail industry (O) and logistics industry (PLD); independent variables include COVID -19 confirmed cases, COVID-19 deaths, S&P 500 stock index, CBOE Volatility index, U.S. dollar index, U.S. non-agricultural employment population, benchmark interest rate and M2 money supply.The model results show that the number of confirmed cases has no significant impact on the above three industries. However, the number of deaths has a negative significant impact on commercial buildings and retail industries, and a positive significant impact on the circulation and logistics industry. The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have implemented bullish policies, relatively speaking, too much U.S. dollars flowed into the market, making the U.S. dollar index and REITs index have a significant negative correlation. The non-agricultural population in the United States only positively affects commercial and office buildings, and interest rates have a negative relationship with commercial and office buildings, but they have a positive relationship with the retail industry. This shows that various industries face different issues under the epidemic. When formulating fiscal measures, relevant government agencies should carefully evaluate the types of industries to be rescued and their counterparts in order to effectively solve today`s social and economic problems.參考文獻 中文參考文獻吳榮義，尤敏君，蔡毓芳，莊朝榮與龔明鑫，2003，「SARS 事件對我國經濟之總體影響評估」，行政院經濟建設委員會92年度委託研究計畫。徐世勳，林國榮，蘇漢邦，林桓聖與李篤華，2006，「臺灣產業結構變動之動態一般均衡預測」，『臺灣經濟預測與政策』，36(2)：1-45。林左裕，『2015，不動產投資管理』，臺北：智勝文化。楊奕農，1999，『時間序列分析-經濟與財務之應用』二版，雙葉書廊有限公司。英文參考文獻Aassve, A., Alfani, G., Gandolfi, F., and Le Moglie, M., 2021, “Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu”, Health Economics, 30(4): 840-857.Akinsomi, O., 2020, “How resilient are REITs to a pandemic? The COVID-19 effect”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 39: 19-24.Altig, D., Baker, S. R., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., Davis, S. J., Leather, J., Meyer, B. H., Mihaylov, E., Mizen, P., Parker, N. B., Renault, T., Smietanka, P., & Thwaites, G., 2020, “Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic”, Journal of Public Economics, 191, 104274.Andersen, M., Maclean, J. C., Pesko, M. F., and Simon, K. I., 2020, “Effect of a federal paid sick leave mandate on working and staying at home: Evidence from cellular device data”, NBER Working Paper, No. 27138. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Ashraf, B., 2020, “Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets”, Journal of behavioral and experimental finance, 27, 100371.Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M. and Viratyosin, T., 2020, “The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19”, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4): 742-758.Baldwin, R., 2020, “Keeping the lights on: Economic medicine for a medical shock”, Macroeconomics, 20: 20.Bargain, O. & Aminjonov, U., 2020, “Trust and Compliance to Public Health Policies in Times of COVID-19”, Journal of Public Economics, 192, 104316.Barrios, J. M., and Hochberg, Y., 2020, “Risk Perception Through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic”, NBER Working Paper, No. 27008. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Barro, R. J., Ursúa, J. F. and Weng, J., 2020, “The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “spanish flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity”, NBER Working Paper, No. 26866. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Boissay, F. & Rungcharoenkitkul, P., 2020, “Macroeconomic effects of COVID-19: an early review”, BIS Bulletin, 7, 1-7.Brodeur, A., Grigoryeva, I., and Kattan, L., 2020, “Stay-at-Home Orders, Social Distancing and Trust”, IZA Discussion Paper. No. 13234. Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany.Bursztyn, L., Rao, A., Roth, C., and Yanagizawa-Drott, D., 2020, “Misinformation during a pandemic”, BFI Working Paper. No. 2020-44. Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the University of Chicago.Carlsson-Szlezak, P., Reeves, M., and Swartz, P., 2020, “Understanding the economic shock of coronavirus”, Harvard Business Review, Retrieved March 27, 2020 from HBR on the World Wide Web: https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirusChen, C. D., Chen, C. C., Tang, W. W., and Huang, B. Y., 2009, “The positive and negative impacts of the SARS outbreak: A case of the Taiwan industries”, Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1): 281-293.Chou, J., Kuo, N. F., and Peng, S. L., 2004, “Potential impacts of the SARS outbreak on Taiwan`s economy”, Asian Economic Papers, 3(1): 84-99.Correia, S., Luck, S., and Verner, E., 1918, “Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu”, SSRN Working Paper, Retrieved June 11, 2020 from SSRN on the World Wide Web: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560D`Lima, W., Lopez, L. A., and Pradhan, A., 2020, “Covid-19 and housing market effects: Evidence from us shutdown orders”, SSRN Working Paper, Retrieved November 3, 2020 from SSRN on the World Wide Web: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3647252Durante, R., Guiso, L., and Gulino, G., 2020, “Asocial Capital: Civic Culture and Social Distancing during COVID-19”, Journal of Public Economics,194: 104342.Ferguson, N., Laydon, D., Nedjati Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., Boonyasiri, A., Cucunuba Perez, Z., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A. and Dorigatti, I., 2020, “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand”, Imperial College London, Retrieved March 16, 2020 from Imperial College London on the World Wide Web: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/Francke, M., and Korevaar, M., 2020, “Housing Markets in a Pandemic: Evidence from Historical Outbreaks”, Journal of Urban Economics, 123: 103333.Garrett, T. A., 2007, “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Retrieved May 18, 2020 from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on the World Wide Web: http://www.indexinvestor.com/resources/Research-Materials/Disease/Economic_Impact_of_1918_Influenza.pdfGormsen, N. J., and Koijen, R. S., 2020, “Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectation”, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4): 574-597.Gourinchas, P. O., 2020, “Flattening the pandemic and recession curves”, pp. 94-107 in Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do whatever it Takes, Centre for Economic Policy Research Press, edited by R. Baldwin, B. Weder di Mauro.Hsiang, S., Allen, D., Annan-Phan, S., Bell, K., Bolliger, I., Chong, T., Druckenmiller, H., Hultgren, A., Huang, L. Y., Krasovich, E., Lau, P., Lee, J., Rolf, E., Tseng, J., and Wu, T., 2020, “The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 Pandemic”, Nature, 584: 262-267.Jeris, S.S., and R.D. Nath, 2020, “Covid-19, oil price and UK economic policy uncertainty: evidence from the ARDL approach”, Quantitative Financial Economics 4(3): 503–514.Johnson, N. P. A. S., and Mueller, J., 2002, “Updating the accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic”, Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 76(1): 105–115.Jonas, O. B., 2013, World Development Report 2014 on Risk and Opportunity: Managing Risks for Development, World Bank Publications.Jonung, L., and Roeger, W., 2006, “The Macroeconomic Effects of a Pandemic in Europe - a Model-Based Assessment”, European Economy Economic Papers, 251: 1725-3187.Juranek, S., and Zoutman, F., 2020, “The Effect of Social Distancing Measures on the Demand for Intensive Care: Evidence on COVID-19 in Scandinavia”, SSRN Working Paper, Retrieved May 6, 2020 from SSRN on the World Wide Web: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3594014Kawaguchi, K., Kodama, N. and Tanaka M., 2021, “Small Business under the COVID-19 Crisis: Expected Short-and Medium-Run Effects of Anti-Contagion and Economic Policies”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 61: 101138.Keogh-Brown, M., McDonald, S., Edmunds, J., Beutels, P., and Smith, R., 2008, “The macroeconomic costs of a global influenza pandemic”, Paper presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland; Presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland.Ling D. C. Wang C. Zhou T., 2020, “A first look at the impact of COVID-19 on commercial real estate prices: Asset level evidence”, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4): 669-704.Madhav, N., Oppenheim, B., Gallivan, M., Mulembakani, P., Rubin, E., and Wolfe, N., 2017, “Pandemics: risks, impacts, and mitigation”, Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, 9: 315-345.Pagano M., Wagner C. and Zechner, J., 2020, “Disaster resilience and asset prices”, COVID Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Retrieved May 22, 2020 from SSRN on the World Wide Web: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3612841Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J., 2001, “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326.Ramelli S. and Wagner A. F., 2020, “Feverish stock price reactions to COVID-19”, The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 9: 622–655.Roser, M., Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E., and Hasell, J. (2019, March. 30). Coronavirus Pandemic（COVID-19）, Retrieved June 30, 2020 from Our World in Data on the World Wide Web: Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirusWong, G., 2008, “Has SARS infected the property market? Evidence from Hong Kong”, Journal of Urban Economics, 63(1): 74-95.Zhao, Y., 2020, “US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence”, IMF Working Paper, Retrieved December 12, 2020 from SSRN on the World Wide Web: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3744679相關網站參考1. 世界衛生組織: https://www.who.int/2. 美國勞工統計局: https://www.bls.gov/3. 聯邦準備系統: https://www.federalreserve.gov/ 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
108257023資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108257023 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tso-Yu en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林宗緯 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Zong-Wei en_US dc.creator (作者) 林宗緯 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lin, Zong-Wei en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2021 15:51:14 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2021 15:51:14 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2021 15:51:14 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108257023 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136538 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108257023 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 新冠肺炎COVID-19病毒正嚴重地重挫全球的經濟。疫情的爆發除了危害到人們生命安全，也正改變人們的生活型態。本研究欲探討新冠肺炎COVID-19疫情對不動產市場的影響。首先，本研究透過文獻回顧，觀察歷史上造成大流行的疫情與現階段的COVID-19，利用時間序列資料，建立自我迴歸分配落遲模型分析不同產業在遭受到疫情的影響之下，對於其經濟以及不動產市場的影響。本研究樣區為美國，建立三個模型，採用之應變數分別為商辦大樓（BXP）、零售業（O）與流通物流業（PLD）的不動產投資信託（REITs）指數；自變數包含COVID-19確診數、COVID-19死亡數、標普500股價指數、VIX恐慌指數、美元指數、美國非農就業人口、基準利率與M2貨幣供給量。模型結果顯示確診數對於上述三個產業皆無顯著影響，然而死亡數對於商辦大樓與零售業皆為負向顯著影響，而對流通物流業則為正向顯著影響。美國政府與聯準會實施無限QE政策、降息與紓困案等利多政策，致使股價指數與M2貨幣供應量正向顯著商辦大樓與零售業。相對而言，過多的美金流於市場當中，使得美元指數與REITs指數呈向負向顯著相關。美國非農從業人口僅正向影響商辦大樓，以及利率對於商辦大樓為負向關係然而與零售業有著正向關係，顯示疫情之下各產業面臨不同之議題。政府相關單位研擬財政措施時，應謹慎評估紓困之產業類別與相對應之對象，方能有效地解決當今社會與經濟問題。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) COVID-19 is severely hitting the global economy hard. The outbreak of the epidemic not only endangered people`s lives, but greatly changed people`s lifestyles. The study intends to explore the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market. First of all, the study uses literature review to observe the historical epidemics that have caused pandemics and the current COVID-19. The study use time series data to establish autoregressive distributed lag model to analyze the impact of different industries under the impact of the epidemic.The sample area of the study is the United States, and three models are established. Dependent Variables are the real estate investment trust (REITs) index of commercial office building (BXP), retail industry (O) and logistics industry (PLD); independent variables include COVID -19 confirmed cases, COVID-19 deaths, S&P 500 stock index, CBOE Volatility index, U.S. dollar index, U.S. non-agricultural employment population, benchmark interest rate and M2 money supply.The model results show that the number of confirmed cases has no significant impact on the above three industries. However, the number of deaths has a negative significant impact on commercial buildings and retail industries, and a positive significant impact on the circulation and logistics industry. The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have implemented bullish policies, relatively speaking, too much U.S. dollars flowed into the market, making the U.S. dollar index and REITs index have a significant negative correlation. The non-agricultural population in the United States only positively affects commercial and office buildings, and interest rates have a negative relationship with commercial and office buildings, but they have a positive relationship with the retail industry. This shows that various industries face different issues under the epidemic. When formulating fiscal measures, relevant government agencies should carefully evaluate the types of industries to be rescued and their counterparts in order to effectively solve today`s social and economic problems. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景、動機與目的 1第二節 研究方法與研究範圍 5第三節 研究架構與流程 8第二章 文獻回顧 9第一節 歷史疫情對國際經濟以及不動產市場的影響 9第二節 COVID-19對國際經濟以及不動產市場的影響 12第三節 小結 15第三章 研究設計與資料說明 16第一節 研究設計 17第二節 資料說明與變數選取 22第四章 實證結果分析 36第一節 REITs指數與COVID-19疫情之關係 36第二節 實證結果之各產業比較 56第五章 結論與建議 60第一節 結論與政策建議 60第二節 研究限制與後續研究建議 63參考文獻 64 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1919689 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108257023 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新冠肺炎 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不動產投資信託 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自我迴歸分配落遲模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) REITs en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) ARDL Model en_US dc.title (題名) 新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情對不動產市場的影響－以美國為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market- Evidence from USA en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考文獻吳榮義，尤敏君，蔡毓芳，莊朝榮與龔明鑫，2003，「SARS 事件對我國經濟之總體影響評估」，行政院經濟建設委員會92年度委託研究計畫。徐世勳，林國榮，蘇漢邦，林桓聖與李篤華，2006，「臺灣產業結構變動之動態一般均衡預測」，『臺灣經濟預測與政策』，36(2)：1-45。林左裕，『2015，不動產投資管理』，臺北：智勝文化。楊奕農，1999，『時間序列分析-經濟與財務之應用』二版，雙葉書廊有限公司。英文參考文獻Aassve, A., Alfani, G., Gandolfi, F., and Le Moglie, M., 2021, “Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu”, Health Economics, 30(4): 840-857.Akinsomi, O., 2020, “How resilient are REITs to a pandemic? The COVID-19 effect”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 39: 19-24.Altig, D., Baker, S. R., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., Davis, S. J., Leather, J., Meyer, B. H., Mihaylov, E., Mizen, P., Parker, N. B., Renault, T., Smietanka, P., & Thwaites, G., 2020, “Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic”, Journal of Public Economics, 191, 104274.Andersen, M., Maclean, J. C., Pesko, M. F., and Simon, K. I., 2020, “Effect of a federal paid sick leave mandate on working and staying at home: Evidence from cellular device data”, NBER Working Paper, No. 27138. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Ashraf, B., 2020, “Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets”, Journal of behavioral and experimental finance, 27, 100371.Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. 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