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題名 巴菲特指標於亞洲股市之實證研究
Empirical Study on Buffett Indicator in Asian Equity Markets作者 吳昀祐
Wu, Yun-Yu貢獻者 黃仁德
吳昀祐
Wu, Yun-Yu關鍵詞 巴菲特指標
MV/GDP
亞洲股市
股市修正預測
Buffett Indicator
MV/GDP
Asian Stock Market
Equity Market Correction Forecasting日期 2021 上傳時間 4-Aug-2021 16:00:34 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文以巴菲特指標（股票總市值對國內生產毛額比率）搭配常態分配單尾信賴區間與坎泰利不等式兩種門檻值建構股市修正預測模型，實證分析台灣、日本、韓國、中國、印度、馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國、及澳洲等九個亞洲國家股市，研究期間自1985至2020年不等，探討巴菲特指標在亞洲國家股市是否具有修正預測的能力。實證結果發現，採用常態分配單尾信賴區間門檻值的修正預測模型對於台灣、韓國、新加坡等亞洲四小龍國家預測結果最好，並具統計顯著性，而採用坎泰利不等式門檻值的修正預測模型雖產生的修正訊號次數較少，但在多數亞洲國家達100%的預測準確率，對於股市修正也有預測能力。整體而言，巴菲特指標於亞洲國家股市的應用上，可作為捕捉股市修正的參考依據。
This paper uses the Buffett Indicator (the ratio of total stock market value to gross domestic product) to construct correction forecasting models with two thresholds: (i) one-tail confidence interval based on a normal distribution; and (ii) Cantelli`s inequality. We empirically analyze nine stock markets in Asian countries, including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Australia, and the time period ranges from 1985 to 2020. This paper aims to observe whether the Buffett Indicator has the ability to predict equity market corrections in Asian stock markets.The empirical results show that the correction forecasting model using the threshold of one-tail confidence interval based on a normal distribution can successfully predict corrections in the stock markets of Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, which reaching a high degree of statistical significance. On the other hand, although the correction forecasting model using the threshold of Cantelli’s inequality generates fewer correction signals, it still has high forecasting accuracy and predictive ability to accurately forecast corrections. Overall, the Buffett Indicator is useful in Asian stock markets to capture equity market corrections.參考文獻 葉旭峰 (2020)，〈巴菲特指標於台灣股市之實證分析〉，國立政治大學國際經營與貿易學系碩士論文。Abreu, D. and M. K. Brunnermeier (2003), “Bubbles and Crashes,” Econometrica, 71:1, 173-204.Buffett, W. and C. Loomis (2001), “Warren Buffett on the Stock Market,” FORTUNE Magazine, http:// www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,372385,00. html.Campbell, J. Y. and R. J. Shiller (1998), “Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook,” Journal of Portfolio Management, 24:2, 11-26.Chang, Y. S. and D. H. Pak (2018), “Warren Buffett Value Indicator vs. GDP Size: Is the Relationship Superlinear?” International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 15:2, 223-235.Gao, R. (2020), “How Does the Buffett Indicator Work in China?” working paper, Institute of Economics and Finance, East Tennessee State University.Geyfman, V. (2015), “The Effect of Economic and Financial System Development on Banks’ Listing Decisions: Evidence from Transition Economies,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50:6, 174-192.Jones, S. E. (2019), “Macro vs. Micro Earnings, “Macro-Earnings Negativity”, and an Introduction to a Composite Valuation Model,” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ papers.cfm?abstract_id=2222008.Lleo, S. and W. T. Ziemba (2019), “Can Warren Buffett Forecast Equity Market Corrections?” European Journal of Finance, 25:1, 369-393.Prats, M. A. and B. Sandoval (2020), “Does Stock Market Capitalization Cause GDP? A Causality Study for Central and Eastern European Countries,” Economics, 14:1, 1-29.Pysarenko, S., V. Alexeev, and F. Tapon (2019), “Predictive Blends: Fundamental Indexing Meets Markowitz,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 100, 28-42.Siganos, A., E. Vagenas-Nanos, and P. Verwijmeren (2017), “Divergence of Sentiment and Stock Market Trading,” Journal of Banking and Finance, 78, 130-141.Wu, K. (2017), Business Analytics. Singapore: World Scientific.Tanner, G. (2021), “The Buffett Indicator: An International Examination,” working paper, Institute of Finance & Economics, Texas State University.Ziemba, W. T. and S. L. Schwartz (1991), Invest Japan. Chicago: Probus. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
108258036資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108258036 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃仁德 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳昀祐 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Yun-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 吳昀祐 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wu, Yun-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2021 16:00:34 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2021 16:00:34 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2021 16:00:34 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108258036 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136567 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108258036 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文以巴菲特指標（股票總市值對國內生產毛額比率）搭配常態分配單尾信賴區間與坎泰利不等式兩種門檻值建構股市修正預測模型，實證分析台灣、日本、韓國、中國、印度、馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國、及澳洲等九個亞洲國家股市，研究期間自1985至2020年不等，探討巴菲特指標在亞洲國家股市是否具有修正預測的能力。實證結果發現，採用常態分配單尾信賴區間門檻值的修正預測模型對於台灣、韓國、新加坡等亞洲四小龍國家預測結果最好，並具統計顯著性，而採用坎泰利不等式門檻值的修正預測模型雖產生的修正訊號次數較少，但在多數亞洲國家達100%的預測準確率，對於股市修正也有預測能力。整體而言，巴菲特指標於亞洲國家股市的應用上，可作為捕捉股市修正的參考依據。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper uses the Buffett Indicator (the ratio of total stock market value to gross domestic product) to construct correction forecasting models with two thresholds: (i) one-tail confidence interval based on a normal distribution; and (ii) Cantelli`s inequality. We empirically analyze nine stock markets in Asian countries, including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Australia, and the time period ranges from 1985 to 2020. This paper aims to observe whether the Buffett Indicator has the ability to predict equity market corrections in Asian stock markets.The empirical results show that the correction forecasting model using the threshold of one-tail confidence interval based on a normal distribution can successfully predict corrections in the stock markets of Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, which reaching a high degree of statistical significance. On the other hand, although the correction forecasting model using the threshold of Cantelli’s inequality generates fewer correction signals, it still has high forecasting accuracy and predictive ability to accurately forecast corrections. Overall, the Buffett Indicator is useful in Asian stock markets to capture equity market corrections. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究架構 4第二章 文獻回顧 5第三章 實證模型 8第四章 實證過程與結果 14第一節 資料來源與特性 14第二節 實證過程 28第三節 各國實證結果 29第四節 結語 46第五章 結論與建議 49參考文獻 51 zh_TW dc.format.extent 4903208 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108258036 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巴菲特指標 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) MV/GDP zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 亞洲股市 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 股市修正預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Buffett Indicator en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) MV/GDP en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Asian Stock Market en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Equity Market Correction Forecasting en_US dc.title (題名) 巴菲特指標於亞洲股市之實證研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Empirical Study on Buffett Indicator in Asian Equity Markets en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 葉旭峰 (2020)，〈巴菲特指標於台灣股市之實證分析〉，國立政治大學國際經營與貿易學系碩士論文。Abreu, D. and M. K. Brunnermeier (2003), “Bubbles and Crashes,” Econometrica, 71:1, 173-204.Buffett, W. and C. Loomis (2001), “Warren Buffett on the Stock Market,” FORTUNE Magazine, http:// www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,372385,00. html.Campbell, J. Y. and R. J. Shiller (1998), “Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook,” Journal of Portfolio Management, 24:2, 11-26.Chang, Y. S. and D. H. Pak (2018), “Warren Buffett Value Indicator vs. GDP Size: Is the Relationship Superlinear?” International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 15:2, 223-235.Gao, R. (2020), “How Does the Buffett Indicator Work in China?” working paper, Institute of Economics and Finance, East Tennessee State University.Geyfman, V. (2015), “The Effect of Economic and Financial System Development on Banks’ Listing Decisions: Evidence from Transition Economies,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50:6, 174-192.Jones, S. E. (2019), “Macro vs. Micro Earnings, “Macro-Earnings Negativity”, and an Introduction to a Composite Valuation Model,” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ papers.cfm?abstract_id=2222008.Lleo, S. and W. T. Ziemba (2019), “Can Warren Buffett Forecast Equity Market Corrections?” European Journal of Finance, 25:1, 369-393.Prats, M. A. and B. Sandoval (2020), “Does Stock Market Capitalization Cause GDP? A Causality Study for Central and Eastern European Countries,” Economics, 14:1, 1-29.Pysarenko, S., V. Alexeev, and F. Tapon (2019), “Predictive Blends: Fundamental Indexing Meets Markowitz,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 100, 28-42.Siganos, A., E. Vagenas-Nanos, and P. Verwijmeren (2017), “Divergence of Sentiment and Stock Market Trading,” Journal of Banking and Finance, 78, 130-141.Wu, K. (2017), Business Analytics. Singapore: World Scientific.Tanner, G. (2021), “The Buffett Indicator: An International Examination,” working paper, Institute of Finance & Economics, Texas State University.Ziemba, W. T. and S. L. Schwartz (1991), Invest Japan. Chicago: Probus. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100690 en_US
