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題名 臺灣地方縣市生育率之影響因素探討
The Exploration of the Determinants of Fertility Rate in Taiwan Counties and Cities
作者 許惠佳
Hsu, Hui-Chia
貢獻者 吳文傑
Wu, Wen-Chieh
許惠佳
Hsu, Hui-Chia
關鍵詞 育齡婦女總生育率
房價負擔能力
生育津貼
total fertility rate
housing price affordability
maternity pension
日期 2021
上傳時間 4-Aug-2021 16:01:49 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究目的係探討有關近年來影響臺灣各地方縣市生育率之因素，利用2011年至2019年臺灣20縣市追蹤資料，以育齡婦女總生育率做為衡量生育水準的指標，作為被解釋變數；於解釋變數有房價負擔能力指標—貸款負擔率、房價所得比；自有住宅比率；女性勞動參與率、女性高等教育比率；失業率、刑案發生率；人口密度、每萬人公園、綠地、兒童遊樂場、體育場所及廣場面積數、平均每一醫療機構服務人數、服務業從業比率、生育津貼，並利用二元固定效果模型，探討各變數對於臺灣20縣市生育率之影響程度及方向。\n研究結果顯示，貸款負擔率、房價所得比、自有住宅比率、女性勞動參與率、女性高等教育比、平均每一醫療機構服務人數與生育津貼對總生育率皆呈現正相關；失業率與人口密度對總生育率呈現負相關。本研究根據上述的研究結論，建議可透過提高貸款成數、提高生育津貼等政策，提升育齡婦女生育意願，俾有效因應少子化之衝擊。
The purpose of this study is to explore the correlation factors affecting fertility rate in Taiwan counties and cities during recent years. Based on the panel data of twenty counties and cities in Taiwan from 2011 to 2019, the total fertility rate (TFR) of women at childbearing age is used as a dependent variable and an indicator to measure the fertility level. In the explanatory variables are housing price affordability index-loan burden rate and housing price income ratio, home ownership ratio, female labor participation rate, proportion of female high level education, unemployment rate, crime rate, population density, area of parks and public places, medical density, service industry ratio, maternity pension. This empirical study adopts two-way fixed effect model to explore the extent and direction of the above-mentioned fertility-related factors on TFR of 20 counties and cities in Taiwan.\nThe empirical results indicate that the loan burden rate, the ratio of housing price income ratio, the home ownership ratio, the female labor participation rate, the proportion of female high level education, the medical density and the maternity pension are positively correlated with the total fertility rate. The unemployment rate and population density are negatively correlated with the total fertility rate. Based on the above conclusions, this study implies the governments need to consider such as increasing the Loan-to-Value(LTV) and raising maternity pension, so as to boost birth rate.
參考文獻 第一節、英文文獻\nAdsera, A. (2004). Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions. Journal of population economics, 17(1), 17-43.\nAnacker, K. B. (2019). Introduction: housing affordability and affordable housing. International Journal of Housing Policy, 19(1), 1-16. doi: 10.1080/19491247.2018.1560544\nBecker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility Demographic and economic change in developed countries (pp. 209-240): Columbia University Press.\nBecker, G. S. (1981). A Treatise on the Family: Harvard university press.\nBourassa, S. C. (1996). Measuring the affordability of home-ownership. Urban Studies, 33(10), 1867-1877.\nButz, W. P., & Ward, M. P. (1979). The emergence of countercyclical US fertility. The American economic review, 69(3), 318-328.\nCaldwell, J. C. (1976). Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory. Population and development review, 321-366.\nCastles, F. G. (2003). The world turned upside down: below replacement fertility, changing preferences and family-friendly public policy in 21 OECD countries. Journal of European social policy, 13(3), 209-227.\nColeman, D. A. (1998). Reproduction and survival in an unknown world: what drives today`s industrial populations, and to what future?\nCollver, A., Speare Jr, A., & Liu, P. K. (1967). Local variations of fertility in Taiwan. Population Studies, 20(3), 329-342.\nCummins, S. K., & Jackson, R. J. (2001). The built environment and children`s health. Pediatric Clinics of North America, 48(5), 1241-1252.\nDehejia, R., & Lleras-Muney, A. (2004). Booms, busts, and babies` health. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(3), 1091-1130.\nDettling, L. J., & Kearney, M. S. (2014). House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby. Journal of Public Economics, 110, 82-100.\nElsinga, M., & Hoekstra, J. (2005). Homeownership and housing satisfaction. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 20(4), 401-424.\nGauthier, A. H., & Hatzius, J. (1997). Family benefits and fertility: An econometric analysis. Population Studies, 51(3), 295-306.\nHulchanski, J. D. (1995). The concept of housing affordability: Six contemporary uses of the housing expenditure‐to‐income ratio. Housing studies, 10(4), 471-491.\nKim, T.-K., Horner, M. W., & Marans, R. W. (2005). Life cycle and environmental factors in selecting residential and job locations. Housing studies, 20(3), 457-473.\nKiser, C. V. (1963). Birth Rates of the White Population in the United States, 1800-1860. [Birth Rates of the White Population in the United States, 1800-1860: An Economic Study, Yasukichi Yasuba; A Demographic Aspect of Interstate Variations in American Fertility, 1800-1860, H. Yuan Tien; Trends in Birth Rates in the United States since 1870, Bernard Okun]. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 41(1), 106-108. doi: 10.2307/3348684\nLindo, J. M. (2010). Are children really inferior goods? Evidence from displacement-driven income shocks. Journal of Human Resources, 45(2), 301-327.\nLutz, W., Testa, M. R., & Penn, D. J. (2006). Population density is a key factor in declining human fertility. Population and Environment, 28(2), 69-81.\nLutz, W., & Wils, A. B. (1994). People on Mauritius: 1638–1991 Population—Development—Environment: Springer.\nMcDonald, P. (2002). Sustaining fertility through public policy: The range of options. Population, 57(3), 417-446.\nMulder, C. H. (2006a). Home-ownership and family formation. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 21(3), 281-298.\nMulder, C. H. (2006b). Population and housing: a two-sided relationship. Demographic Research, 15, 401-412.\nMulder, C. H., & Billari, F. C. (2010). Homeownership regimes and low fertility. Housing studies, 25(4), 527-541.\nMulder, C. H., & Wagner, M. (1998). First-time home-ownership in the family life course: A West German-Dutch comparison. Urban Studies, 35(4), 687-713.\nMulder, C. H., & Wagner, M. (2001). The connections between family formation and first-time home ownership in the context of West Germany and the Netherlands. European Journal of Population/Revue europeenne de demographie, 17(2), 137-164.\nSchaller, J. (2016). Booms, busts, and fertility testing the becker model using gender-specific labor demand. Journal of Human Resources, 51(1), 1-29.\nSouth, S. J., & Messner, S. F. (2000). Crime and demography: Multiple linkages, reciprocal relations. Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 83-106.\nSweeney, M. M. (2002). Two decades of family change: The shifting economic foundations of marriage. American Sociological Review, 132-147.\n王德睦、張國偉（2010）。台灣女性初婚率的量與步調。臺灣社會福利學刊， 8（2），頁29-66。\n田惠淳（2018）。臺灣各縣市犯罪率對其生育率的影響。未出版之碩士論文，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。\n任強、沃夫岡（2003）。人口密度和生育率: 一項探索性分析。中國人口科學， 5，頁1-10。\n林佩萱、張金鶚（2016）。沒有房子不生孩子? 買了房子不敢生孩子? 購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究。臺灣社會學刊， 59，頁93-138。\n唐重振、何雅菲（2018）。住房負擔與生育意願: 正向激勵還是資源擠出。《廣西師範大學學報》(哲學社會科學版)， 54（4），頁61-67。\n郭俊東（2017）。臺灣生育行為之社會決定因素。國立臺灣大學健康政策與管理研究所。\n陳文意、周美伶、林玉惠、陳明吉（2013）。抑制房價以提高生育率: 以台北都會區為例。都市與計劃， 40（2），頁191-216。\n彭建文、蔡怡純（2012a）。住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響-追蹤資料共整合分析應用。人口學刊 ； 44期 (2012 / 06 / 01) ，P57 - 86。\n彭建文、蔡怡純（2012b）。住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係─ 追蹤資料共整合分析應用。住宅學報， 21（2），頁1-27。\n劉志宏、張卉婷（2015）。房地產價格與生育行為之相關性研究: 台灣實證資料之檢視。公共事務評論， 15（2），頁21-43。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
106255025
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255025
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chiehen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許惠佳zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsu, Hui-Chiaen_US
dc.creator (作者) 許惠佳zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Hsu, Hui-Chiaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2021en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2021 16:01:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Aug-2021 16:01:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2021 16:01:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106255025en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=155739-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 106255025zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究目的係探討有關近年來影響臺灣各地方縣市生育率之因素，利用2011年至2019年臺灣20縣市追蹤資料，以育齡婦女總生育率做為衡量生育水準的指標，作為被解釋變數；於解釋變數有房價負擔能力指標—貸款負擔率、房價所得比；自有住宅比率；女性勞動參與率、女性高等教育比率；失業率、刑案發生率；人口密度、每萬人公園、綠地、兒童遊樂場、體育場所及廣場面積數、平均每一醫療機構服務人數、服務業從業比率、生育津貼，並利用二元固定效果模型，探討各變數對於臺灣20縣市生育率之影響程度及方向。\n研究結果顯示，貸款負擔率、房價所得比、自有住宅比率、女性勞動參與率、女性高等教育比、平均每一醫療機構服務人數與生育津貼對總生育率皆呈現正相關；失業率與人口密度對總生育率呈現負相關。本研究根據上述的研究結論，建議可透過提高貸款成數、提高生育津貼等政策，提升育齡婦女生育意願，俾有效因應少子化之衝擊。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this study is to explore the correlation factors affecting fertility rate in Taiwan counties and cities during recent years. Based on the panel data of twenty counties and cities in Taiwan from 2011 to 2019, the total fertility rate (TFR) of women at childbearing age is used as a dependent variable and an indicator to measure the fertility level. In the explanatory variables are housing price affordability index-loan burden rate and housing price income ratio, home ownership ratio, female labor participation rate, proportion of female high level education, unemployment rate, crime rate, population density, area of parks and public places, medical density, service industry ratio, maternity pension. This empirical study adopts two-way fixed effect model to explore the extent and direction of the above-mentioned fertility-related factors on TFR of 20 counties and cities in Taiwan.\nThe empirical results indicate that the loan burden rate, the ratio of housing price income ratio, the home ownership ratio, the female labor participation rate, the proportion of female high level education, the medical density and the maternity pension are positively correlated with the total fertility rate. The unemployment rate and population density are negatively correlated with the total fertility rate. Based on the above conclusions, this study implies the governments need to consider such as increasing the Loan-to-Value(LTV) and raising maternity pension, so as to boost birth rate.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1\n第一節 研究動機 1\n第二節 研究目的 5\n第三節 研究架構 6\n第二章 文獻回顧 7\n第一節 生育行為理論探討 7\n第二節 房價負擔對生育的影響 8\n第三節 性別平權對生育的影響 16\n第四節 社會治安對生育的影響 20\n第五節 區域發展對生育的影響 22\n第三章 研究方法 26\n第一節 實證模型說明 26\n第二節 變數設定與預期影響 30\n第四章 資料統計分析 39\n第一節 資料來源與資料處理 39\n第二節 共線性檢定 41\n第三節 敘述統計 43\n第四節 實證結果 46\n第五節 區域與時間固定效果估計分析 51\n第五章 結論 55\n第一節 結論與建議 55\n第二節 研究限制 57\n參考文獻 58zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2742253 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255025en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 育齡婦女總生育率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價負擔能力zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育津貼zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) total fertility rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) housing price affordabilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) maternity pensionen_US
dc.title (題名) 臺灣地方縣市生育率之影響因素探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Exploration of the Determinants of Fertility Rate in Taiwan Counties and Citiesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 第一節、英文文獻\nAdsera, A. (2004). Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions. Journal of population economics, 17(1), 17-43.\nAnacker, K. B. (2019). Introduction: housing affordability and affordable housing. International Journal of Housing Policy, 19(1), 1-16. doi: 10.1080/19491247.2018.1560544\nBecker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility Demographic and economic change in developed countries (pp. 209-240): Columbia University Press.\nBecker, G. S. (1981). A Treatise on the Family: Harvard university press.\nBourassa, S. C. (1996). Measuring the affordability of home-ownership. Urban Studies, 33(10), 1867-1877.\nButz, W. P., & Ward, M. P. (1979). The emergence of countercyclical US fertility. The American economic review, 69(3), 318-328.\nCaldwell, J. C. (1976). Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory. Population and development review, 321-366.\nCastles, F. G. (2003). The world turned upside down: below replacement fertility, changing preferences and family-friendly public policy in 21 OECD countries. Journal of European social policy, 13(3), 209-227.\nColeman, D. A. (1998). Reproduction and survival in an unknown world: what drives today`s industrial populations, and to what future?\nCollver, A., Speare Jr, A., & Liu, P. K. (1967). Local variations of fertility in Taiwan. Population Studies, 20(3), 329-342.\nCummins, S. K., & Jackson, R. J. (2001). The built environment and children`s health. Pediatric Clinics of North America, 48(5), 1241-1252.\nDehejia, R., & Lleras-Muney, A. (2004). Booms, busts, and babies` health. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(3), 1091-1130.\nDettling, L. J., & Kearney, M. S. (2014). House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby. Journal of Public Economics, 110, 82-100.\nElsinga, M., & Hoekstra, J. (2005). Homeownership and housing satisfaction. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 20(4), 401-424.\nGauthier, A. H., & Hatzius, J. (1997). Family benefits and fertility: An econometric analysis. Population Studies, 51(3), 295-306.\nHulchanski, J. D. (1995). The concept of housing affordability: Six contemporary uses of the housing expenditure‐to‐income ratio. Housing studies, 10(4), 471-491.\nKim, T.-K., Horner, M. W., & Marans, R. W. (2005). Life cycle and environmental factors in selecting residential and job locations. Housing studies, 20(3), 457-473.\nKiser, C. V. (1963). Birth Rates of the White Population in the United States, 1800-1860. [Birth Rates of the White Population in the United States, 1800-1860: An Economic Study, Yasukichi Yasuba; A Demographic Aspect of Interstate Variations in American Fertility, 1800-1860, H. Yuan Tien; Trends in Birth Rates in the United States since 1870, Bernard Okun]. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 41(1), 106-108. doi: 10.2307/3348684\nLindo, J. M. (2010). Are children really inferior goods? Evidence from displacement-driven income shocks. Journal of Human Resources, 45(2), 301-327.\nLutz, W., Testa, M. R., & Penn, D. J. (2006). Population density is a key factor in declining human fertility. Population and Environment, 28(2), 69-81.\nLutz, W., & Wils, A. B. (1994). People on Mauritius: 1638–1991 Population—Development—Environment: Springer.\nMcDonald, P. (2002). Sustaining fertility through public policy: The range of options. Population, 57(3), 417-446.\nMulder, C. H. (2006a). Home-ownership and family formation. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 21(3), 281-298.\nMulder, C. H. (2006b). Population and housing: a two-sided relationship. Demographic Research, 15, 401-412.\nMulder, C. H., & Billari, F. C. (2010). Homeownership regimes and low fertility. Housing studies, 25(4), 527-541.\nMulder, C. H., & Wagner, M. (1998). First-time home-ownership in the family life course: A West German-Dutch comparison. Urban Studies, 35(4), 687-713.\nMulder, C. H., & Wagner, M. (2001). The connections between family formation and first-time home ownership in the context of West Germany and the Netherlands. European Journal of Population/Revue europeenne de demographie, 17(2), 137-164.\nSchaller, J. (2016). Booms, busts, and fertility testing the becker model using gender-specific labor demand. Journal of Human Resources, 51(1), 1-29.\nSouth, S. J., & Messner, S. F. (2000). Crime and demography: Multiple linkages, reciprocal relations. Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 83-106.\nSweeney, M. M. (2002). Two decades of family change: The shifting economic foundations of marriage. American Sociological Review, 132-147.\n王德睦、張國偉（2010）。台灣女性初婚率的量與步調。臺灣社會福利學刊， 8（2），頁29-66。\n田惠淳（2018）。臺灣各縣市犯罪率對其生育率的影響。未出版之碩士論文，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。\n任強、沃夫岡（2003）。人口密度和生育率: 一項探索性分析。中國人口科學， 5，頁1-10。\n林佩萱、張金鶚（2016）。沒有房子不生孩子? 買了房子不敢生孩子? 購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究。臺灣社會學刊， 59，頁93-138。\n唐重振、何雅菲（2018）。住房負擔與生育意願: 正向激勵還是資源擠出。《廣西師範大學學報》(哲學社會科學版)， 54（4），頁61-67。\n郭俊東（2017）。臺灣生育行為之社會決定因素。國立臺灣大學健康政策與管理研究所。\n陳文意、周美伶、林玉惠、陳明吉（2013）。抑制房價以提高生育率: 以台北都會區為例。都市與計劃， 40（2），頁191-216。\n彭建文、蔡怡純（2012a）。住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響-追蹤資料共整合分析應用。人口學刊 ； 44期 (2012 / 06 / 01) ，P57 - 86。\n彭建文、蔡怡純（2012b）。住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係─ 追蹤資料共整合分析應用。住宅學報， 21（2），頁1-27。\n劉志宏、張卉婷（2015）。房地產價格與生育行為之相關性研究: 台灣實證資料之檢視。公共事務評論， 15（2），頁21-43。zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100717en_US